SPORTS WAGERS
BOSTON -1½ -105 over Toronto
As value bettors, this one may not seem like it has any but we’re also situational bettors and in this case, situation takes precedence over value. The Blue Jays played their final home game of the season yesterday to a packed house (47,000+) at Rogers Center. Playing in his last home game as a Blue Jay, the day was all about long-time Toronto slugger Jose Bautista.
From the time starter Marcus Stroman warmed up in a vintage Bautista jersey, until the final curtain call, the packed house took every chance to stand and cheer Bautista, who has recorded some of the biggest hits in club history, including the memorable bat flip when he hit a three-run home run off Texas Rangers reliever Sam Dyson, which ultimately sent the Jays to the 2015 ALCS. Manager John Gibbons pulled Bautista from right field with one out in the top of the ninth to allow the crowd to give the long-time Jay an emotional send-off. Bautista hugged many of his teammates as he made his way off the field, ran to the dugout, then came out for another acknowledgment and was given a standing ovation. Make no mistake that it was an emotional day with a playoff like atmosphere. The day was about Joey Bats, as he was the face of the franchise for a number of years. Coming off very few highs this season, one really has to wonder where Toronto’s motivation will come from today.
The Jays will end the season with six games on the road with no chance of impacting Boston’s chances of missing the playoffs. Boston is in and needs just one more win to lock up the AL East. Thus, the Jays are likely going to be on a big emotional low here after such a high yesterday. Aside from that, they are inferior to the Red Sox in every area, especially on the mound with Drew Pomeranz going up against Brett Anderson and their strong bullpen up against Toronto’s struggling ‘pen.
Atlanta -113 over N.Y. METS
This is Game 1 of a double-header and we’re going to play Atlanta in both games. The listed pitchers for Game 1 are Lucas Sims versus Chris Flexen.
Prior to 2017, Sims' biggest problem was control. This year, in both Triple-A and the majors, he appears to have made a significant improvement in that area, backed by an elite first-pitch strike rate. When a high prospect begins to throw strikes, usually good things will start to happen. After a 37% groundball rate for most of the year, Sims’ groundball rate in his last start was 60%. His swinging strike rate is 12% over his last three starts too. The 23-year-old Sims has upside. He has a 96 mph fastball with life and a "great 12-6 curve that ranks among the best in the organization. He’s going to be a major piece in the Braves rotation over the next several years and he’s getting better with each passing start.
Chris Flexen is the opposite of Sims. Flexen was “supposed to be ”MLB ready when he made his debut back in late July but he’s been anything but. Some guys are never MLB ready once they get here and Flexen has not come close to proving he belongs. First, he can’t throw strikes. He’s walked 30 batters in 29 frames and 10 batters over his last 10 innings. He’s constantly behind in the count and he’s not facing a free-swinging squad here. In fact, Atlanta has struck out the fourth fewest times in all of MLB. Flexon brings a 2.12 WHIP into this game, meaning he’s surrounded by traffic every inning. He has a 7.18 ERA, a 9.98 xERA and because he’s forced to use his fastball when behind in the count, hitters are sitting on it. His fastball has been flat and every time he takes the mound, so are the Mets. Give us Atlanta at a short price in Game 1 and as a dog in Game 2 and we’re thrilled to be going with the best of it here in both games.
Atlanta +118 over N.Y. METS
This is Game 2 of a double-header and we’re betting that the Braves win at least one, although we’re expecting them to sweep. In Game 2, the listed pitchers are Max Fried against Seth Lugo. Max Fried was the centerpiece in the trade that landed the Padres Justin Upton despite having just undergone Tommy John surgery, Fried has seen his valuation as a prospect ebb and
Max Fried was the centerpiece in the trade that landed the Padres Justin Upton despite having just undergone Tommy John surgery, Fried has seen his valuation as a prospect ebb and flow heavily in the last few seasons. Originally drafted 7th overall in 2012 out of Harvard Westlake, Fried boasted three pitches that all flashed plus at the time: A low-to-mid-90s fastball, a tight, sweeping curve in the high 70s that flashed double plus (which he now has two versions of), and a change that was already near an average pitch, all in a left-handed package standing at an athletic, 6’4” and 180 pounds. Glimpses of that same pitcher emerged last year after it seemed the 24-year-old Fried was fully back from missing almost two full seasons, rattling off a number of dominant performances for Single-A Rome to end his campaign. Those hopes were put on hold for Fried at Double-A Mississippi this season, where he amassed a 2-11 record and a 6.33 ERA over 86.2 difficult innings. The underlying skills are a bit muddier. While he’s got a problematic command profile, Fried is still keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%) and whiffing near 9 per 9. Fried has battled blisters all season long and ended up on the DL in June. Since he’s been back, he’s been a different pitcher. He held righties to a .231/.300/.269 line over his first three starts back in which he did not allow an earned run. On September 3, he threw a five-inning beauty against the Cubbies. He’s worked out of the ‘pen and as a starter since early August and while he brings risk, Seth Lugo brings a higher risk as the chalk.
Last year, Lugo went 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 64 innings for the Mets. It was not a breakout, instead, it was just a lucky MLB hit%/strand% combo (24%/81%), which was the flip side of his fortunes in AAA. Lugo has thrown 91 innings this year over 17 starts. He comes in with 25 BB’s, 74 walks, a 5.03 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He’s also pitching for a banged up team that just finished a series with Washington over the weekend. Seth Lugo does not own stats or skills worth getting behind. Things have not been any better for him in the second half (5.32 ERA) than they were in the first half. The reality is that he's a late bloomer who didn't arrive 'til 26 and may disappear as fast as he came. The Braves continue to play hard every day and of the two teams playing a double-header in the final week of the season, we trust that New York will be less interested.
Miami -1½ +230 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
25-41 + 26.95 units
Brandon Lee
Chicago at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -135
I was on the Cubs while they took 3 of 4 against the Brewers, but will look to fade them in Monday's series opener against the Cardinals. Chicago did what they needed to in Milwaukee and have reduced their magic number for clinching the NL Central to just 2 games. A lot of the talk after yesterday's win was about clinching in St Louis and while it's likely going to happen during this 4-game series, I expect the Cardinals to come out fired up in the opener. I also don't trust Cubs starter Jon Lester right now, as he's really been struggling of late. Last time out he allowed 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Cardinals send out Luke Weaver, who has a 2.27 ERA in 8 starts overall and 1.52 ERA in 4 outings at home.
Jack Jones
Chicago at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -135
The St. Louis Cardinals are down to their last life here. They cannot afford any more losses. They are 2.5 games back of the Colorado Rockies for the final wild card spot. That makes this home series with the Chicago Cubs huge, and I look for the Cardinals to take Game 1 here tonight.
Luke Weaver has been dominant since getting the call up. He is 7-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in eight starts this season, 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in four home starts, and 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA in his last three starts overall. He already has 62 K's in 47 2/3 innings this year.
Jon Lester has really been struggling this season, especially down the stretch. He is 11-8 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in 30 starts this season. Lester has a 5.91 ERA in his past four starts. He gave up 7 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against Tampa Bay. He has walked 11 batters in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts, so control has been the issue.
The Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. St. Louis is 7-0 in Weaver's last seven starts. Chicago is 2-7 in Lester's last nine starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Rob Vinciletti
San Francisco at Arizona
Play: Arizona
Arizona clinched a playoff berth on Sunday but should be good to go here against a SF Team they have beat 5 straight here at home. Interesting system in this one plays on any home team since 2004 with a total that is less than 10 and comes in off a 1 run home win scoring 4 or less runs vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs scoring 2 or less runs and both teams had no errors in their last game. Godley for Arizona is 6-1 in his last 7 and Cueto has lost 5 of 6 with 5 days rest. Look for Arizona to take the opener.
Jack Brayman
My free play for Monday night is on the :Arizona Cardinals over the Dallas Cowboys, as I'm playing the home underdog. Might as well buy the half point in this one, as long as you're being offered between +2.5 and +3.
The Cowboys come in looking to redeem themselves after being thumped by the Denver Broncos last week. Both teams come in 1-1, and the Cardinals are finally opening the home portion of their schedule.
Arizona lost its season-opener at Detroit 35-21, and then looked lackluster in a 16-13 road win in overtime last week at Indianapolis.
Arizona has the horses on offense, and a home game might be the best way to let them loose. The Cardinals rank 12th in the league in total average yards per game, with 348.5.
And after the Broncos limited Dallas to just 268 total yards in Week 2, I think the blueprint has been laid, and we'll see the Cardinals do the same tonight.
Take the home pup here.
4* ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
I think we're going to see the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies stay under the posted total, as starting pitchers A.J. Cole and Aaron Nola will be embroiled in a pitchers' duel.
Let's start with Cole, as two of the right-hander's best outings this season have come against the Phillies. He fired six innings of one-run ball in Philadelphia on May 6, and four months later tossed a pair of scoreless innings out of the bullpen on against these same Phillies, on Sept. 9. His confidence will be strong tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
This may or may not be Nola’s last start of 2017, as he may have one more, in the season-finale on Sunday. But the right-hander comes in with a 2-0 mark and 2.33 ERA over his past three starts, having thrown seven innings in each of his last two. He is 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts against the Nats, and will have his best stuff working tonight.
5* Nationals-Phillies Under
Tommy Brunson
Monday night comp play on the Cards as they look to make one last run at the Cubs in the Central Division.
Chicago just swept St. Louis earlier this month at Wrigley, and they have won 5 straight over the Cards, and 8 of the last 9 overall.
Luke Weaver makes his first start against the Cubs, and all he has done is go 7-0 with an ERA under 2 since losing his season debut.
Jon Lester has been inconsistent since the All-Star break, and just had a string of 3 straight wins come to a halt with a bad turn against Tampa Bay.
Lester is 1-1 with a 3.28 in 4 starts against the Cardinals this year.
Chances St. Louis can track down Chicago are slim, but the Cards are very much alive for the second Wild Card slot, so look for them to come up big tonight.
Weaver to stay on a roll.
3* ST. LOUIS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Monday night is on the Under in the American League West showdown between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers.
After missing one start with a detached fingernail, McHugh looked good to me last Tuesday, when he allowed one run in a victory over the Chicago White Sox. Now here is one of the most impressive long-term stats I've seen for a pitcher: his 18 Sept./Oct. starts with the Astros since 2014 have seen him roll to a 14-0 mark, with a 2.83 ERA.
With Cashner, we have a guy who should know this lineup well, as he'll be making his sixth start against the Astros this season - the most by any opponent. He is 4-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 home starts this season, the third lowest ERA at home by a Rangers pitcher since 1994.
I like this one to stay low.
3* Astros-Rangers Under
Doug Upstone
Marlins vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -155
Miami has been scoring runs but is still a good-sized underdog at Colorado and here is why. NL road underdogs with a money line of +145 or more like the Marlins, with a on-base percentage of .350 or less, against a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or less, with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games are a mere 15-83 since 2013.
John Martin
Angels vs. White Sox
Play:White Sox +142
The Los Angeles Angels are now 4.5 games back in the wild card with seven games left. They are pretty much done for now, so don't expect them to be motivated moving forward. Especially since they've blown their opportunity by going 1-6 in their last seven games overall. The White Sox and their young prospects are playing well down the stretch, winning three of their last four coming in despite being a dog in all four. They are another big home dog here. Ricky Nolasco can't be getting this much respect considering he's 3-8 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 15 road starts this year. James Shields is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts, closing the season strong for Chicago. Nolasco is 1-4 with a 6.00 ERA in eight previous starts against Chicago, while Shields is 7-4 with a 3.13 ERA in 15 previous starts against Los Angeles.
Dave Price
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Astros -123
The Houston Astros are still battling for home-field advantage in the American League with the Cleveland Indians. They are doing their part, going 8-2 in their last 10 games overall. The Texas Rangers are going in the opposite direction. They were just swept by the Oakland A's over the weekend that killed their wild card chances. I don't look for them to offer much resistance over the final week of the season now. Collin McHugh is 3-2 with a 3.44 ERA in 10 starts this season and we're getting him at a good price here. Andrew Cashner has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last 2 starts for Texas. The Astros are 31-6 in McHugh's last 37 starts vs. AL West opponents. The Rangers are 0-4 in Cashner's last 4 home starts.
Buster Sports
Mariners at Athletics
Play: Over 9
The Seattle Mariners come to Oakland to face the red-hot Athletics. The A’s have won seven in a row and look to continue their winning streak. Our play will be on the OVER in this game and this is why. The starting pitchers for tonight’s game are for the Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (5-5, 4.57 ERA) and he will face the Athletics RH Daniel Gossett (4-9, 5.38 ERA) King Felix has not had the 2017 season that he would’ve liked. He has been inconsistent and had to deal with injuries all year. Since his latest injury he could only pitch 3 2/3 innings in his first start and in his last start he allowed 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings. We see a red-hot Athletics club getting to the King tonight. As for Gossett, he has had a real tough go in 2017. When he has faced the Mariners for his career he is sporting a 6.75 ERA with an ugly WHIP of 2.375. We see Seattle getting to Gossett early and often tonight.
Bob Balfe
Giants +110
The DBacks clinched a wild card spot last night so you know the players had a couple too many drinks last night and obviously are not taking a Giants team serious tonight. San Fran has been owned the last few games in this series and will be looking to spoil the mood just a bit. Look for Arizona to give a few guys some rest after their big achievement.
OC Dooley
Mariners -110
At most offshore locations Seattle opened as a rather large favorite (-125) but due to their recent horrible play and the fact that Oakland has won 7 consecutive contests, we get the man called King Felix (Hernandez) at market-value. Seattle comes into tonight on a nasty 1-8 skid where the average runs per game produced by the offense (2.7) has been extremely low. But the Mariners have owned the Athletics having WON SIX IN A ROW in the series along with a 10-3 mark in the past thirteen clashes. In the past three years after a "margin" win of 6+ runs when playing in front of the HOME fans Oakland (4-13 record) has been a "bet against"
Stephen Nover
Nationals vs Phillies
Play: Nationals
Even though the Nationals have nothing to play for, I still like them in an underdog role against the Phillies.
Washington has won seven of its last nine road games. The Nationals have had great success in Philadelphia winning 17 of the past 22 times there.
The Nationals have excellent depth. The Phillies have been playing a lot of youth. So I'm fine if the Nationals choose to sit out a couple of regulars.
There's a strong possibility Bryce Harper returns to Washington's lineup today. Harper was batting .326 with 29 homers and 87 RBI's when he was injured on Aug. 12. He hasn't played since. There will be a buzz, if not outright spark for Washington, if Harper does play.
Nationals starter A.J. Cole has been pitching better with a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander beat the Phillies at Citizens Band Park back in May holding the Phillies to one run in six innings. The Phillies have lost 69 percent of their last 96 games against righy starters.
Aaron Nola gets the call for the Phillies. He's had more difficulty against the Nationals than any other team with a 1-3 career record and 4.69 ERA.