Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, September 26th, 2016

Allen Eastman

Atlanta (+3) over New Orleans

These two teams hate one another, and this one will be hard-fought. The underdog has been the play in this series, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog has won outright in four of those games! The underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. New Orleans is disappointed after losing two straight heartbreakers in the final minutes. Atlanta is riding higher after a great effort in a win over Oakland last Sunday. I think that they will get this one. And I think that it could be another close loss for the Saints here.

Jim Feist

Reds at Cardinals
Pick: Over

The Cincinnati Reds won for just third time in their last 10 games on Sunday. Of course it was against the Milwaukee Brewers, one of the worst teams in baseball. The Reds begin their last road visit of the season with four games at St Louis and then finish up at home with the Cubs. Time Adleman gets the start tonight with a 2-4 record and 4.06 ERA in his 11 starts. Adleman's biggest issue is the long ball. The 28-year-old has allowed two home runs or more in four of his last six starts. St Louis is in a three-team battle for the two NL Wildcard slots. Right now the Giants are tied with the Giants and both clubs trail the Mets by one game. The Cardinals get four games at home against the Reds and then close the regular season with three games at home vs the Pirates. Jaime Garcia should have two starts remaining. He's 10-12 with a 4.59 ERA. Garcia has made his last three appearances out of the pen, but moves back into the rotation tonight. Garcia had allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts. These clubs have gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings in St Louis. I expect another high scoring meeting tonight.

DAVE COKIN

FALCONS AT SAINTS
PLAY: OVER 54

Rivalry time tonight on the NFL gridiron as the Falcons and Saints get together at the Superdome. The early season data certainly indicates a high scoring game that could go either way.

The Falcons have not been very good at getting their defense off the field. Atlanta has forced only four three and outs in two games. The Saints weren’t able to generate many points last week against the Giants. But that was on the road and we all know it’s at home where QB Drew Brees becomes unstoppable for the Saints. Considering the difficulty the Falcons stop unit has displayed early on, I’ll be very surprised if New Orleans doesn’t have its share of productive drives this evening.

As for the Atlanta attack, we’re starting to see more no-huddle offense, and that’s apparently much to the delight of the players. QB Matt Ryan and superstar wideout Julio Jones have made it clear this is the style of play they favor. Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan still hasn’t totally committed to the fast break on a full-time basis, but it makes a great deal of sense against a shaky defense like the Falcons will be seeing tonight, and I would be shocked if we don’t see no-huddle at least one third of the time, and hopefully even more than that.

Neither team has been able to exhibit much of a pass rush, and both Ryan and Brees are lethal when given time to go through their progressions and zero in on open targets. I don’t think there’s much debate that these two teams are at their best when the offenses are clicking, and I just can’t see wither defense being especially effective tonight.

Obviously, none of this is lost on the oddsmakers and the O/U on tonight’s clash is clearly on the high side. So I can’t really offer that there’s any particular value on this play. But I expect the shootout to take place and won’t be even remotely surprised if we get a game with both teams getting close to or even beyond 30 points. I’ll play the Falcons and Saints to go Over the Total.

Ben Burns

Rays / White Sox Over 9

Both these teams were involved in low-scoring games on Sunday. We should see the bats come back to life this evening though. Shields has struggled all season. He got hit hard again last time out, giving up seven runs (six earned) in 5 2/3 innings. He's now 5-18 with a dreafrul 5.98 ERA and 1.624 WHIP on the season. Smyly was better last time out but hasn't been all that much better overall. Through 29 starts, he's got a 4.86 ERA. On the road, that climbs to 5.44 with a 1.465 WHIP. Smyly has been "money" for 'over' bettors on the season, as the 'over' is 18-8-3 when he takes the mound overall, 10-3-2 on the road. Yesterday notwithstanding, Chicago games have been sailing over the total all month long. (Seven of their past eight have finished above the total.) With the Sox hitting considerably better against southpaws than they do against right-handers, this one should have an excellent shot at hitting double-digits.

Rob Vinciletti

Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Cubs -150

The Cubs have won 30 of 41 on the road vs division teams who are behind them in the standings and 28 of 38 as a road favorite in this range. They have K. Hendricks one of the most under rated pitchers in the game on the mound. Hendricks has a 2.03 era this year and has won his last 3 vs the Pirates. Pittsburgh has lost 16 of the last 22 at home and has Kuhl and his 5.91 Home era on the mound. In his starts vs the Cubs he has been dismal and has a 8.59 era. Look for the Cubs to take the opener.

Scott Spreitzer

Mariners vs. Astros
Play: Astros -122

Seattle and Houston are clinging to an outside chance for a wild card spot and the Astros have the edge in this matchup as Collin McHugh has been nearly unhittable against the Mariners this season. McHugh has a 4-0 record and 1.08 ERA with a .186 opponent batting average versus Seattle allowing only three runs in 25 innings. Houston has won 28 of McHugh's last 36 home starts and 27 of his last 31 starts against AL West teams. Also, Seattle has lost eight of the last 10 meetings overall and the last four in Houston. Hisashi Iwakuma got pounded for six runs and eight hits in 3 1/3 innings against Toronto on Tuesday and his ERA now is at 4.04. Iwakuma has given up eight runs and 16 hits in 17 innings against Houston this year. The Mariners have lost five of his last seven starts.

Sean Murphy

Oakland at Los Angeles
Play: Over 8½

The A’s offense bounced back following back-to-back shutout losses at the hands of the Rangers with a 7-1 victory yesterday afternoon. I look for the bats to pick up where that effort left off on Monday night, as the A’s head to Anaheim to face the Angels.

Keep in mind, on the A’s most recent road trip they scored a whopping 65 runs over the course of seven games.

Sean Manaea will take the ball for Oakland on Monday. He hasn’t allowed a single earned run over his last two starts but worked just 11 innings total. His strikeout numbers have started to creep up again but I don’t always see that as a positive, particularly for a young pitcher late in the season. Note that Manaea was ripped for five runs, four of them earned over 5 2/3 innings when he last pitched here in Anaheim in early August.

Jered Weaver will counter for Los Angeles. He continues to get hit fairly hard and like Manaea, his strikeout totals have crept up here in the latter stages of the season but so have the walks. Opponents haven’t had much trouble putting the ball in play, nor have they had issues getting men on base and scoring runs for that matter against Weaver this season as he checks in with an ERA well north of five.

We don’t need a slugfest to cash this ticket on Monday night. I feel that the total will prove to be too low in this matchup.

Mike Lundin

Rays vs. White Sox
Play: Rays -113

The Tampa Bay Rays have lost six of their last seven games, and they'll be hungry for a win after getting swept by the Red Sox at home over the weekend. They travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox Monday night, and this looks like a good spot to back the visitors.

The White Sox are coming off back-to-back wins at Cleveland, but they're 2-7 in the last nine meetings with the Rays. James Shields (5-18, 5.98) is a terrible 0-6 with a 9.46 ERA over the last two months, and I liked what I saw from the Rays in Sunday's 3-2 extra inning loss to the Red Sox, a game they just as easily could have won.

Drew Smyly (7-11, 4.86 ERA) takes the ball for Tampa Bay, and he's an unbeaten 5-0 behind a 3.60 ERA in his last 11 games. The Rays are 7-3 in Smyly's last 10 starts and the White Sox are 2-5 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.

The Rays are still putting up a fight, and I like the price we get on the visitors with this significant edge on the mound tonight.

Big Al

Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Chicago

After their win on National TV last night, the Cubs will go for their 100th victory of the season in Pittsburgh, then close out their regular season in Cincinnati next weekend against the Reds. The quality of their starting pitching has really shone through this season and tonight the biggest surprise of the bunch MLB ERA leader RHP Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for his 29th start (he also has one relief appearance to his credit). Hendricks has posted 21 straight starts in which he's given up three or fewer earned runs, the longest streak in the Majors, so it would perhaps be appropriate if he's the one who notches the century mark for his team. Young RHP Chad Kuhl will get his 13th start of the season tonight for the Bucs, and although Kuhl has had a successful rookie campaign with a 3.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 62 2/3 innings, he's had a rough time against tonight's opponent. Kuhl has allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 7 1/3 innings in two starts vs. the Cubs. The Cubs have dominated this series recently, taking seven of the last nine meetings.

Larry Ness

Oakland vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Oakland

The A’s visit Anaheim for a three-game series Monday through Wednesday and the only thing at stake is avoiding the AL West ‘basement.’ Los Angeles (69-87) currently leads Oakland (67-88) by 1 1/2 games in that ’race’ and each team opens the series with a pitcher who comes in pitching well. Rookie Sean Manaea (6-9, 4.03 ERA) takes the mound for the A’s up against Angel veteran Jered Weaver (12-12, 5.20 ERA). Those season records don’t look so good but Manaea has pitched 11 shutout innings in his past two starts, while Weaver posted his 150th career win in his last start, continuing a six-game stretch in which he’s 4-1 (team is 5-1) with a 4.15 ERA (31 Ks in 34.2 innings).

Manaea missed the first two weeks of September because of a strained back but scattered just three hits and a walk while striking out five and throwing 67 pitches during five scoreless innings in his return September 14, an 8-0 win at Kansas City. He then allowed three hits and two walks while striking out seven in six scoreless innings of Oakland's 2-1 loss to Houston this past Tuesday. "He was great," Oakland manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com after his Sep 14 start. "It didn't look like he had any time off." Manaea then pitched just as well last Tuesday. I stated above that Weaver’s recent six-start stretch is his best of the season but note the 4.15 ERA (not exactly “lights out” pitching).

Weaver is 6-6 with a 4.92 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 16 home starts this season (Angels are 8-8 ), allowing 114 hits in 93.1 innings. In this meaningless game, I’m going with the ‘hot’ rookie over the veteran who has seen his better days.

Mark Franco

Saints -3

The New Orleans Saints will commemorate one of the more noteworthy games in franchise history when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night in a matchup of longtime NFC South rivals. It will mark the 10-year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome after the venue was forced to close for one season in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

While emotions certainly will not be as high as in New Orleans' win over Atlanta a decade ago, the Saints can use any edge to avoid a 0-3 start after dropping their first two games by a combined four points.

Matt Ryan had his fewest touchdown passes (21) since his rookie season in 2015, but he off to a fast start with 730 yards passing with five scores and one interception while leading the league with a 121.4 quarterback rating. There is cause for concern in the passing game with star wide receiver Julio Jones sitting out his second straight practice Friday due to a calf injury, but Atlanta coach Dan Quinn said he expects him to play. The Falcons are receiving solid production from the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who have combined for 181 rushing yards and 11 receptions. Atlanta's defense ranks 29th overall, allowing an average of 412.5 yards per game.

New Orleans was horrendous on defense last season and little has changed -- it ranked 31st in the league with a staggering 451.5 yards surrendered and has been torched through the air for an average of 336.0 yards. Keeping the defense off the field would be easier if the Saints could crank up their running game, with lead back Mark Ingram producing 88 rushing yards on only 21 attempts, including nine carries in last week's 19-16 loss at the New York Giants. Quarterback Drew Brees has a potent receiving duo in Willie Snead and Brandon Cooks, who have combined for 27 catches and four touchdowns.

Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC South. Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

David Banks

Atlanta @ New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans -2.5

It’s the 10th anniversary of the New Orleans Saints returning home to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Hurricane Katrina had badly damaged the Superdome in 2005 and the Saints celebrated the re-opening of the historic stadium by entertaining NFC South Division rival Atlanta. It was September 25, 2006, when the Saints defeated the Falcons, 23-3.

This year, the two teams celebrate the Superdome’s re-opening as they meet on Monday night. The Saints, now 0-2 after a pair of heartbreaking losses, would like nothing more than a repeat of 10 years ago. The Falcons, with the NFL’s top-rated quarterback and No. 1 pass offense, would like to jump to 2-1 and gain a victory in the division.

New Orleans, it seems, can’t get a break. Their defense played well last week against the Giants not allowing an offensive touchdown in a 16-13 loss. The Saints had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown and lost when Josh Brown connected on his third field goal of the day, a 23-yarder, as time expired. Quarterback Drew Brees, who threw four TD passes in Week 1, managed just one against the Giants, a 17-yarder to WR Willie Snead early in the fourth quarter tying the game at 10-10.

In Week 1, the Saints lost to Oakland when Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio elected to go for two after a late Raiders touchdown. The Saints need to put together a solid offensive and defensive outing in order to get their first victory.

New Orleans will have to contend with one of the NFL’s best passing tandems. Matt Ryan has a 121.4 quarterback rating to lead the league and has thrown for 730 yards in two games. Ryan has completed nearly 73 percent of his passes and has five touchdowns thus far. Wide receiver Julio Jones, who led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards last season, has nine catches for 172 yards and two scores. Jones has a slight calf strain, nothing serious, and will benefit from the extra day of rest prior to Monday night’s game.

Brandon Lee

Cubs / Pirates Under 7½

I see some solid value here on the UNDER in Monday's series opener between the Cubs and Pirates. Chicago will send out Cy Young front-runner Kyle Hendricks, who has a 2.03 ERA and 0.961 WHIP over 28 starts. Hendricks has been even better than that of late, posting a 1.37 ERA over his last 17 outings. He's been really good in each of his two starts against the Pirates this season, allowing 1 run on 10 hits with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. With Chicago already having locked up everything for the playoffs and coming off a big win last night against the Cardinals, I look for the offense to come out flat here against Chad Kuhl, who has pitched well in each of his last two outings, giving up just 3 runs on 9 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. UNDER is 11-3 in Hendricks 14 night starts this season and I look for the trend to continue.

Jimmy Boyd

Rays -119

Tampa Bay is showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the White Sox on Monday. Chicago is going to send out the struggling James Shields, who can't wait for this season to be over with. Shields is 5-18 with a 5.98 ERA in 31 starts. He was in bad form last time out, giving up 7 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in just 5 1/3 innings at Philadelphia. I'll take my chances that the Rays will be able to get to him early and often in this one.

Tampa will give the ball to Drew Smyly, who has also had a season to forget. Big things were expected out of Smyly, but he's just 7-11 with a 4.86 ERA in 29 starts. However, he does have a 1.262 WHIP on the season, which is a sign that he's pitched better than his record and ERA would suggest. He comes into this game off two really strong outings. He held the Blue Jays to just 2 runs on 5 hits in Toronto two starts ago and last time out allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings against the Yankees.

Rays are 5-1 in Smyly's last 6 starts when he comes in off a quality start and 4-1 in his last 5 when pitching on a full 5 days of rest. White Sox are just 1-4 in Shields last 5 home starts, 0-5 in his last 5 during Game 1 of a series and 0-6 in his last 6 against a team with a losing record.