Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, September 4th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

BLUE JAYS AT RED SOX
PLAY: RED SOX -155

I’m not going go into detail on the specifics of the theory, but suffice to say the Red Sox are the side in what has been a very solid late season angle. Rick Porcello has had a tough season, but he’s been solid in four of his last five starts.

I’m not as sold on J.A. Happ, although he did manage to contain the Bosox in his most recent outing. But Happ also enjoyed some good fortune in that game in spite of very shaky control, and his two prior starts were unimpressive.

No bargain on the price to be sure, but if you’re looking for cheap chalk with good teams at this point of the season, its going to be a lengthy search. I’m more situational than value oriented down the baseball homestretch and that’s what has me willing to spot the price with the Red Sox tonight.

Scott Rickenbach

Edmonton vs. Calgary
Play: Over 54½

These are two of the highest scoring teams in the league. Though the Stampeders have a rock solid defense I don't see the Eskimos going down without a fight. After starting the season 7-0, Edmonton has now lost two straight but they can get back to the top if they could score the big upset at Calgary Monday afternoon. They will certainly give it their all in that regard but I don't see the Eskimos as being able to stop the Stampeders potent offense. As a result, this one turns into a high-scoring shootout. The last 3 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total and an average of 69 points per game was scored! The over is 3-1 in Edmonton's divisional games this season. The last 3 seasons combined, Calgary is 4-1 to the over as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points and also the Stampeders are 6-2 to the over in September games.

Jimmy Boyd

Brewers vs. Reds
Play: Reds +115

I like the value here with Cincinnati as a division home dog in Monday's series opener against the Brewers. The Reds are out of it, but I fully expect them to come out and try to play spoiler against a division rival.

Most are going to look to fade Cincinnati starter Homer Bailey, but I think this is a good spot to jump on board. Bailey has allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits in his last 2 starts, which spanned a full game (9 innings).

Milwaukee will counter with Chase Anderson, who suffered an injury in his last start at Cincinnati back in late June and his prior outing to that at the Great American Ballpark saw him give up 7 runs in 5 innings of a 5-9 loss.

Brewers are just 2-10 in their last 12 road games against a team with a losing record, 3-13 in their last 16 versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 1-4 in Anderson's last 5 starts in Game 1 of a series.

Jim Feist

Twins at Rays
Pick: Over

This is a good offensive park and Twins have been on an offensive tear. Minnesota is 12-2 over the total on astroturf. The Over is 12-3 in Alex Cobb's last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams clash the over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings, 9-0 in this park.

Stephen Nover

Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay

The Rays rank eighth in the majors in homers. They have hit at least one homer in 14 straight games. The Twins can't match that power.

The pitching matchup favors the Rays, too, with Jose Berrios versus Alex Cobb.

Berrios has a very high ceiling. But he has not been good on the road going 4-5 with a 5.12 ERA.

Cobb is underrated. He should have more wins that he does. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last three starts, none of which resulted in a win for him. Cobb also is 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts.

Tommy Brunson

Tough spot for the Yankees who had yesterday's game bumped back to a night start (7:35 pm eastern), and now must head south to Camden Yards to face Baltimore pitcher Dylan Bundy for this matinee affair at 2:05 pm eastern time.

Bundy is fresh off a complete game, one-hit shutout at home over the Seattle Mariners. In that start, Bundy struck-out 12 batters as the game held Under the total. It was Bundy's 3rd under in his last 5 starts.

Expect him to stay tough on the New York batters who have to be tired this afternoon when they hit the field.

The Yankees will go with Jordan Montgomery instead of Jaime Garcia, and while Montgomery is off his worst start pretty much all season, look for him to be a bit steadier today, as he is now not being shuttled back and forth from the minors.

This will be his fourth start this season against a Baltimore team that he is 1-1 against with 6 runs allowed in 16-plus innings pitched.

I like this key A.L. East series to start with a low-scoring outcome.

Yanks-O's Under the total.

2* N.Y. YANKEES-BALTIMORE UNDER

Jack Brayman

My free play for Monday is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in College Football, as I like the underdog in tonight's game. The Tennessee Volunteers may not be playing at Bobby Dodd Stadium, but the game is in Tech's backyard (Atlanta), and that could spell doom.

These are very similar teams, with neither having that much more of an advantage over the other.

Tech brings back eight starters on each side of the ball, and I like coach Paul Johnson to outwit Tennessee coach Butch Jones.

The Volunteers' seven returning starters on offense come mainly in the trenches, and are more inexperienced in the skill position set. Ithink that could spell trouble against Tech's experienced defense, which is led by linebacker Brant Mitchell and cornerback Lance Austin.

Fact is, Johnson always gets the best out of his troops, so I'm banking on the Yellow Jackets to challenge for the outright win.

3* GEORGIA TECH

Brandon Lee

Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -124

Baltimore is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Yankees. The Orioles are playing with a ton of confidence right now, as they secured another walk-off win Sunday to improve to 9-2 over their last 11. Baltimore continues to enjoy the luxury of playing at home, as this will be their 8th straight at Camden Yards. I like that they are catching the Yankees off a huge win over their biggest rival in Boston on Sunday Night Baseball, plus I give the Orioles the edge on the mound. Baltimore sends out Dylan Bundy, who is coming off a complete game shutout at home against the Mariners, while New York counters with Jordan Montgomery and his 5.02 ERA in his last 3 starts.

Teddy Davis

Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Cubs -1½

Take a shot here with the Cubs on the RL. They are sending out one of the hottest pitchers in the game right now in Jake Arrieta who owns a great .50 ERA his last 3 starts combined! He has also owned the Pirates in his career with a 11-5 record and 2.81 ERA. The Pirates send out Chad Kuhl who has been average at best at home with a 4.86 ERA on the season. He has just been destroyed by the Cubs in his career with an ERA over 11!

ASA

Brewers vs. Reds
Play: Under 10

This total has jumped from a 9 to a 10 this morning and that means it is time to invest in some line value here. This is a very big total considering that the Brewers have certainly been trending under for many weeks now and also are on a long-term run of 72% unders their last 25 games against teams with a losing record. Also, 5 of the Reds last 8 games have stayed under the total and Cincinnati was held to 2 runs or less in all 5 of those games. The Brewers Chase Anderson is 8-3 with a 2.96 ERA as a starter on the season! Also, the Reds Homer Bailey has unimpressive overall numbers but this hides the fact that he has had only 1 poor outing in his last 4 starts. In those 3 outings he allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in 14 innings. Additionally, Bailey has struck out 18 in his last 19 and 2 / 3 innings.

Frank Jordan

New York vs. Baltimore
Play: New York +112

The Yankees have put themselves back into the AL East race by taking three of four against Boston to put them just three games back of the Red Sox in the loss column. Today they head to Baltimore to open a series with the Orioles and continue the winning ways. Baltimore is playing well of late winning eight of 10, but they are seven games back of the division, however just 1.5 games out of a wild card spot. The Yankees need to step up their game on the road as they come in at 33-36 while Baltimore is hot at home with a 43-28 record. The Yankees are throwing Jordan Montgomery who is 7-7 on the season with a 4.15 ERA and against Baltimore is 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA. Down in Baltimore Montgomery is 0-1, but pitching to a 2.08 ERA. Baltimore is throwing Dylan Bundy who is 13-8 with a 3.94 ERA and is 5-0 in his last seven starts. Bundy is 7-4 on the season at home with an ERA under 3.50 and against the Yankees Bundy is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA. Bundy has pitched to a 3.04 ERA since the Break. Look for Bundy and Montgomery to pitch well early but it will be a battle of the bullpen in the later inning as the Yankees outlast the Orioles 7-5 in a great afternoon Labor Day game.

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA -104 over Texas

After six games against the contending Astros and Angels, the Rangers will now travel to Atlanta to play an NL team and we’re betting their intensity for this series will be a fraction of what it was over the past two series. Aside from that, Texas is a well below average road squad that will send out a well-below average starter here. Andrew Cashner relied on fewer walks and some good fortune to post a 2.76 ERA (4.58 xERA) in August. His low swinging-strike rate (6%) caps his strikeout numbers (4.6 K’s/9), and 59% of his 2017 games started have resulted in disasters. His weak skills add risk to an unfavorable matchup against the Braves.

After shoveling dirt on the grave of his career, we can definitely say that the tales of R.A. Dickey’s demise were greatly exaggerated. Another stellar start against the Phillies gives the 42-year-old 74 strikeouts in his past 82 innings with an ERA hovering around 2.50 and an xERA of 3.42. We completely understand the hesitation for jumping back in on Dickey especially against the homer happy Rangers but the former Cy Young winners reemergence has certainly been a welcome sign that has the backing of his underlying numbers. R.A. Dickey’s knuckler is Dancing With the Stars these days and now he and the Braves are being sold short here.

Milwaukee/CINCINNATI Over 9½ -119

Our regular readers may recall earlier this season that we were going after some baseball totals based on several factors that we were monitoring. We were using an Air Density Index reading to scientifically provide us with a good information on the conditions that affect the flight of the baseball.

Since air density is very light at the top of tall mountains, especially when the temperatures are warmer, the Air Density Index reading begins at zero at this elevation. The scale will approach 100 at sea level as the air density becomes heavier if it is very cold in temperature on a particular event day. The bulk of professional and non-professional sporting events will fit between 20.0 and 80.0 on the Air Density Index Scale," so that rarely would an event approach the extremes of zero and 100. One would probably be far below sea level and well into the Arctic’s coldest air before the gauge would read above 100. Similarly, one would probably need to be in the highest of mountain peaks, with the temperature approaching "hot," for the gauge to read in the minus scale.

The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through, because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen. The Air Density Index reading takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure to give us a reading between 20 and 80. Coors Field is generally in the 45-to 55 range, which is the lowest in MLB. In other words, the lower the reading, the further the ball will travel (creating overs) and vice versa.

After a hot start using this method, we cooled off for about a week and put it on the backburner to fine tune the process, as we noted that we are still in the experimental (infancy) stage with this strategy but we’ve been tracking and watching totals all season using this scale and trust we found a good spot here.

Back in May, June and July, the Air Density Index for games in Cincinnati were in the 68 to 73 range but today we find it at a favorable 62.52. That suggests that balls should be carrying well at Great American this afternoon. That bodes well for the Reds against Chase Anderson because Cinci hits right-handers very well and Anderson’s groundball/fly-ball split of 33%/68% is a disaster waiting to happen at this park in these conditions.

Meanwhile, Homer Bailey’s profile does not play well at any park under any conditions. If Bailey has a decent game here, it’ll be all luck because his skills are so bad. Bailey is coming off a six-inning, four-hit, two run performance against the Mets but don’t buy it. He struck out one lousy batter (the pitcher) over those six frames and got very lucky that all those hard hit balls were right at folks. Bailey is 0-5 at Great American with a 9.95 ERA. He has a horrible 32/44 BB/K split over 62 frames. The conditions, the starters and the venue point towards this one going over this number with ease and so we’ll play it that way.

Philadelphia +116 over N.Y. METS

Situationally speaking, this looks to be a very good spot for the visitor. New York returns home from a 10-game trip against Washington, Cinci and finally Houston this past weekend. The Mets got to see first-hand the devastation in that area, which caused the opener to be postponed on Friday. As a result, the Mets and Astros played three games over the past two days that included Saturday’s double-header. The Mets lost all three games and now they’ll return home safe and sound to their friends and family after that aforementioned long and emotional trip that included seven games against contenders. Seeing what transpired in Houston had to mentally affect them in some manner too. The Mets will now play a meaningless series against the enthusiastic Phillies.

Rafael Montero was brilliant in his last start against the Reds in Cincinnati. He took a one-hit shutout into the ninth inning and New York held on for a 2-0 victory. It was without question Montero’s finest performance as a pro by a mile. Montero had struggled to produce any value in 2017 prior to that last start. In fact, he’s been hovering around a 5.00 ERA ever since he arrived in 2014. Dude was on fire last week and is coming off a fine August but we’re not ready to throw away three years of mediocrity prior. Montero will enter 2018 as an intriguing speculative target but coming off his best game ever might not be the right time to get behind him.

To put it kindly, Mark Leiter was a not much of a prospect—he was a 22nd round draft pick, and his fastball tops out in the high-80s. Thus, there are good reasons to be a little dubious of his success so far in the majors. However, we like his mound presence and we also like his increasing skills. Leiter’s fastball has averaged 91.2 MPH over his last five starts. He has struggled to log large strikeout numbers, however we could see those numbers rise, as August brought increased splitter usage, a pitch that gets nearly 24% whiffs. Leiter had a 16% swing and miss rate in his last start. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts was 13%, which has led to 28 K’s over his last 28 frames against just six walks. He also has a ERA/xERA split over his last 35 innings of 3.34/3.91, which is also rock solid. 65 innings isn't enough to buy in just yet, but it's enough to justify backing him in this favorable spot against what figures to be a mentally and physically beat up Mets’ squad that has been using a “B” lineup ever since the trade deadline.

San Francisco -1½ +227 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

24-37 + 30.55 units

Larry Ness

Minnesota vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -115

The 71-65 Minnesota Twins currently own the AL's second wild card spot as they visit Tropicana Field on Labor Day for a three-game series with the 68-70 Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays may only be four games back of the Twins but the bigger issue is that between Tampa and Minnesota are FIVE teams. To say the least, this is a key three-game series for Rays. It sure didn't help that they missed an excellent opportunity to get closer to the Twins this past weekend, by losing two of three games at the AL-worst Chicago White Sox (54-81). Tampa Bay had won five of the first seven games of its nine-game road trip before dropping a 5-4 decision on Saturday and following with a 6-2 setback on Sunday. Minnesota didn't help itself either over the weekend, losing two of three to Kansas City at home and now starts a seven-game road trip.

Jose Berrios (12-6, 3.80 ERA) will get the nod for the Twins and Alex Cobb (9-9, 3.72 ERA) for the Rays. It's been quite a turnaround in 2017 for Berrios, who was 3-7 (8.02 ERA) in 14 starts (Twins were 3-11) in 2016. His ERA is down more than FOUR runs per game and the Twins are 12-8 in his 20 starts. Berrios has faced the Rays just once, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss at Tampa Bay last year (7.20 ERA).

Cobb has allowed four runs over 16.1 innings with 17 strikeouts and two walks while going win-less in his last three outings (2.20 ERA / he's 0-2 and TB 1-2). Cobb allowed just one run on six hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision at Minnesota on May 28, leaving him 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA against the Twins in only two career starts (team is 2-0).

Clearly, Berrios is a much better pitcher in 2017 but while he's 8-1 with a 2.54 ERA at home, his road ERA is 5.12 in 11 starts (he's 4-5 and the Twins 4-7). That hardly bodes well here up against Cobb, who owns a 2.54 ERA and excellent 0.96 WHIP in 11 home starts.

Power Sports

St. Louis vs. San Diego
Pick: St. Louis -157

I know that the Padres just took three of four from the Dodgers over the weekend, but I think that it's reasonable to assume that level of success will not be maintained moving forward. After all, this is a team that still sports the worst run differential in the sport (-143), so the fact that they're even at 62 wins should be considered a little fortunate! As for St. Louis, they need to continue to take advantage of this weak schedule. They just won three of four in San Francisco, but are still three back of the Wild Card. I would not be surprised at all if they swept this series.

Carlos Martinez has a 13-14 TSR, but he's pitched much better than that for the Cardinals this year. He did give up six runs (three unearned) and 10 hits his last time out, but prior to that he'd allowed three runs or fewer in five consecutive outings. Ten days ago, he held the Padres to just two runs (one earned) in 7 IP, but ended up on the wrong end of a 4-3 decision. The Cards lost two of three to the Padres in that series, a result they simply cannot afford this time around.

Getting back to San Diego's inability to maintain any kind of success; they're only 3-8 this year off three consecutive wins and 9-23 in that role the L3 seasons. This is the worst offense in the game, whether you're talking about runs scored, team batting average or OBP. Starter Luis Perdomo has performed adequately for the club this season, including a win over Martinez (at +215 on the ML) 10 days ago, but I don't see him turning the same trick twice as the Padres simply lack the firepower to compete on a regular basis.