Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, September 5th, 2016

Sleepyj

Kansas City -140

On the Royals here tonight...Plenty of things to go with here...First off the Twins played a very long game yesterday that went 12 innings...They also scored a total of 24 runs on 34 hits combined...That game seemed to last forever and a day....The Twins bullpen already gassed will be even more gassed and thin tonight....Twins used a total of 7 pitchers in that game yesterday...I think the entire team might be out of gas here..I won;t be shocked if they decide to rest a bat or two either....Royals come in off a loss and that's a good thing for us...KC still only sits 4 games out and now with the Twins on tap a chance to make up some ground...KC will go with Kennedy and he is coming off a loss as well..That's good for us and he has been rather sharp since the break..I think he comes in here rather comfortable tonight...Twins counter with Berrios who has been sent up and down the organization for a few weeks now...Well he got the call up and facing the Royals won't be an easy task...Berrios' ERA is 9.24 an some of that number is justified..He just doesn't have what it takes at this level yet...Facing a team like the Royals who can apply all kinds of pressure it going to give him problems...This line at -140 is a bargain....Jump on this before it gets steamed out of control...KC rolls.

Rob Vinciletti

Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -115

The Rays have a bog pitching advantage in this game with Andriese over U. Jimenez who is 1-8 on the road with a 6.92 era. The Orioles have lost 14 of 22 as a road dog from +100 to +125. Home Favorites off a home dog loss by 2+ runs where they scored 4 or less runs and are playing a team like Balty that is off a home loss by 2+ runs and had 5 or less hits are 14-2 since 2004.. Look for Tampa to take the Opener.

Ben Burns

Astros vs. Indians
Play: Astros +112

While the Indians are "on fire" at the moment, I like Houston's chances of scoring the minor upset this evening. Fiers is in fine current form, as he's got a 2.45 ERA (1.255 WHIP) over this last three starts, all of them Astro wins. In his last road start, he limited the Orioles to a single run through seven complete innings.

Coincidentally, that's exactly what he limited the Indians to when he faced them at Houston back in May. He outpitched Kluber in that one, holding Cleveland to only three hits, the Astros winning by a 7-1 score. With Houston averaging five runs per game on the road, Fiers should get some run support this evening. Clevinger hasn't started since mid-August and he's only made two starts since May. In six starts on the season, he's got a poor 6.29 ERA and 1.603 WHIP. Take a look at the visitors.

Mike Lundin

Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Tigers +110

The Detroit Tigers have won five of their last six games. They're battling to make it to the postseason as they enter Monday tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the second wild-card playoff berth in the American League. The Chicago White Sox season is all but over, and coming off a demanding 13-11 12-inning win at Minnesota last night I think they'll find it tough to recharge the batteries for this contest.

The Tigers swept a three-game set against the White Sox at Comerica Park last week. Justin Verlander (14-7, 3.30 ERA) limited the White Sox to a pair of runs on three hits in seven innings of work in a 3-2 win while Chris Sale (15-7, 3.10 ERA) was reached for a pair of runs on eight hits and four walks in the very same contest. The Tigers sure seem to know how to get runners on base against the left-hander, and Victor Martinez is 19-for-42 with four homers and nine RBI in previous meetings with Sale.

Tigers are 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record and the White Sox are just 2-7 in Sale's last nine starts.

Power Sports

Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle

This is both a great price and situation to take Seattle as they have Felix Hernandez on the mound. Last week in Arlington, the Mariners' season was put on the brink as they were swept by the Rangers. I'll call for them to get a bit of revenge in today's series opener.

Texas just had a seven-game win streak snapped Sunday. It was a rare one-run loss for them as they are still a preposterous 30-9 in such games this season. That record has played a major role in the fact the team is 27 games above .500 in spite of a relatively pedestrian +31 run differential. Note that the run differential wasn't even "in the black" before the now defunct win streak started. This is a good opportunity to fade the Rangers, even though they have Cole Hamels on the bump.

Note Hamels was actually shelled by Seattle in last week's series, giving up six runs in only four innings. The offense ended up bailing him out and winning one of those one-run games in walkoff fashio. King Felix was also hammered in that last series betwee the two teams, although it was a different game than the one Hamels started. Here at Safeco Field (where he has a 3.20 ERA and 1.082 WHIP), I expect Hernandez to pitch a lot better.

Jim Feist

Royals at Twins
Pick: Over

The Royals have only won five of their last 10 games, and that means more teams between them and the final Wild Card slot. KC now trails in the AL Wild Card by four games with five teams ahead of them in the standings. After a great run in August, the Royals have now lost four of their last five games. Ian Kennedy will start today with a 9-9 record and 3.66 ERA. Kennedy is coming off his worst start since July 20th, allowing four runs over 6.1 innings. The Twins are the worst team in the AL, and they have shown that with a 2-15 run. The Twins gave up 30 runs in their recent four game series with the White Sox. Jose Berrios starts today with a 2-4 record, sky high 9.24 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. Berrios has allowed 18 runs over his last 16 innings. In addition, the 22-year old has walked nine batters in his last nine innings. This one could get ugly in a hurry.

David Banks

Ole Miss vs. Florida St
Pick: Under 60

The SEC has a number of marquee matchups in Week 1 and Ole Miss-Florida State is one of them. A win for the Rebels would make them a legitimate contender and set up a huge showdown on Sept. 17 with Alabama. Many see Florida State as a College Football Playoff contender, but the Seminoles will go into Week 1 with a redshirt freshman, Deondre Francois, at quarterback. Florida State has done it before – Jameis Winston ring a bell? – but Francois is untested and will go up against a Rebels defense loaded with future NFL talent.

Speaking of quarterbacks, Ole Miss returns the best in the SEC in Chad Kelly. Kelly threw for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2015 and while he won’t have Laquon Treadwell on the outside, he will have some very talented receivers. Quincy Adeboyejo is the leading returning receiver (38 rec., 604 yds.) and former Washington transfer Damore’ea Stringellow added 36 catches in his first year in Oxford.

The Seminoles have the makings of what could become one of the greatest defenses in the history of college football. They return six starters from a unit that finished ninth in the country in scoring defense (17.5 ppg) last year. Strong safety Derwin James (6-3, 215) is an absolute freak of nature and will line up in multiple positions. Defensive ends Josh Sweat and DeMarcus Walker are as good as any in the country. An FSU victory will cement the ‘Noles in the top four help to set up a showdown with Clemson later in the season.

The Ole Miss defense will have to contend with Heisman Trophy candidate running back Dalvin Cook. At 5-11 and 215, Cook is big, strong, and fast as evidenced by his 1,691 yards rushing last season. Cook averaged 7.4 yards per carry and scored 19 touchdowns. He will need to get off to a quick start to take some of the pressure off of the young Francois at quarterback. If the Seminoles can run the football effectively, they have a great shot at starting the season 1-0 heading into a game with FCS Charleston Southern next week.

Larry Ness

San Francisco vs. Colorado
Pick: San Francisco

The San Francisco Giants lost 3-2 (13 innings) at Chicago on Sunday, which is nothing new. San Francisco owned MLB’s best record (57-33) at the All Star break but Sunday’s loss gave them a 16-30 record since the break, including a hard-luck 5-13 mark in one-run games. The Giants trail the first-place Dodgers by three games in the NL West but continue to hold down a wild-card spot, 1 1/2 games better than the Cards, as well as being 2 1/2 games clear of the playoff ‘cut line.’ San Francisco is hoping that the team's dormant bats (Giants have averaged 2.8 RPG over a 2-4 stretch) ‘wake up’ in Coors Field as the Giants open a three-game series at the 65-71 Colorado Rockies on Monday.

The Rockies used to be a dominant home team but after going 36-45 at Coors Field in 2015, Colorado checks in just 35-34 at home again in 2016. Colorado has lost THREE of its last four home games, allowing 34 runs (8.5 per) in the process. Chad Bettis (11-7, 5.17 ERA) gets the nod for Colorado, after completing seven innings for the first time since April 10 in his previous start (August 28 at Washington). He allowed two runs and five hits in the win, his fifth in the last six decisions. However, Bettis still owns a 5.17 ERA, and a 1.48 WHIP on the season, with opponents batting .288 against him.

The Giants send Matt Moore to the mound, who owns a combined 9-10 record this season with a 3.88 ERA in starts for Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Moore followed up his 133-pitch near-no-hitter on August 25 (8.2 IP / 1 hit) with a solid 5.1 innings in a 4-2 win over Arizona on Wednesday. The Giants are 33-21 against the NL West, which is the best intra-divisional record for any team in the division, and will be playing a divisional opponent for the first time since July 17. A visit to Denver is a common cure for struggling offenses and the Giants have scored at least six runs in FIVE of their previous six contests at Coors in 2016. With Moore pitching well, the Giants are the play.

Scott Spreitzer

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
Play: New York Mets -120

New York won the last two games of its series against Washington and they have won Bartolo Colon's last three starts as he takes the mound today against the Reds. Colon gave up one earned run and walked no one in seven innings against Miami on Wednesday. The ageless right-hander was 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA in August and New York has won 23 of Colon's last 30 starts when it's the first game of a series. The Mets have beaten Cincinnati 11 games in a row, including a three-game sweep in April. Robert Stephenson will make his third start of the season, but his first since April 19. Stephenson had a 4.41 ERA in 24 starts in Triple-A and had some control problems as he walked 10 batters his last 15 innings pitched. New York has won 11 of its last 15 games as it makes a run for a Wild Card spot.

Buster Sports

Kansas City at Minnesota
Play: Kansas City -132

The Kansas City Royals try to keep their playoff hopes alive as they sit 4 games back of a wildcard spot when they face the Minnesota Twins in the first game of a 3 game series. The starting pitchers this afternoon are for the Royals RH Ian Kennedy (9-9, 3.66 ERA) and he faces the Twins RH Jose Berrios (2-4, 9.24 ERA) Kennedy has pitched real well of late. In his last 7 starts he has a excellent 1.77 ERA with a WHIP of 1.05. When starting against the Twins he has a ERA of 2.78 and a WHIP of 0.959. As for Berrios, the rookie just hasn't found his way in the big leagues. He is 22 yrs old and we believe has a bright future but maybe needs more time in the minors. He might even need a change of scenery with a new coaching staff but this kid has huge potential. In saying that, in his last 3 big league starts he has a 11.45 ERA with a WHIP of 2.636. When he starts at home its not much better with a 10.12 ERA and with a WHIP of 2.312. We have this game at 160 only having to lay 132 at the time of this writing is a steal. Backing our selection is the fact that the Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter and the fact that the Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 road games.

Bill Marzano

Mississippi vs Florida St
Play: Florida St -6

I really like FSU at home in this game vs Mississippi...this is a huge game for both teams and we already seen a number of preseason top 10 teams get beat...the Noles return 11 starters on offense and have one of the best RB in the nation in D.Cook who will look to ease the pressure of freshman QB Francois...the Noles will be stout defensively and have their hands full with Hesiman hopefull C.Kelly at QB...the Noles will get a lot of pressure up front and force a couple key turnovers...the SEC didn't do to well in week 1.

SPORTS WAGERS

Edmonton +7 over CALGARY

The Stamps are 4-0 at home. They have won six straight overall and they have victories of 15, 20, 9 and 28 points respectively in four of those six games. The Stampeders are the class of the CFL at the moment so we can surely understand the market’s reluctance to bet against them. However, we are not among that group. Calgary has defeated a group of very flawed teams this season. In all our years of watching the CFL, we have never seen such glaring weaknesses in so many areas for so many teams. In other words, we are not buying the Stamps dominance. Calgary was outgained by Hamilton last week by 118 yards. Two weeks ago, they were out-gained by Saskatchewan by 35 yards, not to mention the 105 yards they were out-gained by in Ottawa. Additionally, against Edmonton, Calgary has scored 11, 16 and 16 points in three of the last four meetings against the Eskies. In the last meeting, Calgary scored 31 points but Edmonton scored 45. Edmonton has also won three straight in the series so this appears to be a difficult matchup on all levels for the host.

Edmonton has been erratic for sure. Its defense was shredded badly early in the year but the Eskies are coming on again. Edmonton has won three in a row. They have out-gained six of their past seven opponents including three in a row. Mike Reilly is either the best QB in the CFL or second best behind Zack Collaros. An argument can be made for both. The old adage in the CFL is that the season does not start until Labour Day weekend. Now somebody needs to send a message to the overvalued Stamps that they are not as good as their record suggests they are. That somebody is the Eskies and while we are so damn tempted to play Edmonton outright, the real value is on the generous points being offered. Not many will live to tell about the day they spotted Mike Reilly in his prime 7 points and cashed the ticket.

HAMILTON -9½ over Toronto

The Argonauts come into this one in poor form and on short rest after having played at home in a 16-13 loss to the Lions last Wednesday night. This a another traditional Labour Day matchup that has been going on forever. Argos v Hamilton on Labour Day is to the CFL what the Maple Leafs versus the Canadiens are to Hockey Night in Canada. Actually, we should rephrase that. To the good people of Hamilton, this is equivalent to Toronto v Montreal in the NHL but the people of Toronto couldn’t give a rat’s ass about this game. Tim Horton’s Field will be jammed packed and it comes at the perfect time, as Hamilton is rounding into great form.

Hamilton is coming off a 6-point loss in Calgary eight days ago. They oputgained the Stamps by 118 yards. The week before in Hamilton in Zack Collaros’ first game back home in a year, the ‘Cats whacked the Riders 53-7. Hamilton has played one home game since July 7. In this Labour Day Classic last year, the 'Cats destroyed the Argos 42-12. This year, Hamilton is better and Toronto is worse. Collaros and the ‘Cats offense will now play together for the fourth consecutive week. Hamilton’s great offense has returned to the complimentary football that made them so dangerous through much of the last three seasons. The defense is getting stops and turnovers while the offense takes advantage of most opportunities. If that’s not enough, return man Brandon Banks gives them a dynamic ball carrier on special teams. Everything sets up here for another blowout and while spotting points in this league has been a bankroll killer this season, an exception here must be made because the Tigercats are always ready on Labour Day in Hamilton ready while Toronto has looked disinterested and sloppy all year.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia -102 over MIAMI

One really has to question the Marlins state of mind here. They have been in the playoff race for most of the year but after getting swept in Cleveland over the weekend, capped by a three-run, ninth inning rally yesterday by the Indians, Miami is now under .500 and essentially finished. Morale cannot be high, as they return home to play in front of what is likely to be a small crowd. Furthermore, the Marlins will send a rookie to the hill.

To replace the injured David Phelps in the rotation, the Marlins turned to 26-year-old Jacob Esch from Triple-A, where he made an emergency start on Wednesday, Aug. 31. Esch was an 11th-round pick in 2011 and has posted mediocre numbers in his career. He lasted just four innings in his debut with three walks and two K’s. His WHIP in his debut was 2.30. In 22 games at Double-A, Esch’s ERA was 4.08. In eight games at Triple A, his ERA was 5.07. The combination of Esch and the Marlins is a weak one right now considering Esch’s weak history and the Marlins weak state of mind.

Philadelphia is limping to the finish line too but they remain an enthusiastic group of kids that want to win. They have a great chance to do so here with Jerad Eickhoff going.

Eickoff’s skill growth timed out perfectly with his ascension to the majors late last year. He closed out his first stint in the bigs with back-to-back 10-K gems. All things considered, Eickhoff has had a tremendous year pitching half his games at a difficult park. He was hit hard in July, at least on the surface (4.50 ERA) but a deeper look reveals a collection of skills that continue to be worth backing. In 162 innings, Eickhoff has an outstanding BB/K split of 38/134 and while the K-rate is not that of a budding ace, the entire profile is one of a solid and reliable #2 or #3 starter. We’re investing in him again in this favorable spot.

Steve Janus

Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates +100

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games. This system is 38-19 (67%) against the money line since 1997.