Free Picks for Saturday, August 12th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
COWBOYS AT RAMS
PLAY: RAMS +3
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not of the belief the Rams are going to be anything more than ordinary at best in 2017. But that will still be an improvement over 2016.
This was a circus franchise last season, with the move to LA and a joke of a coaching situation with Jeff Fisher. There’s a caveat here, as the Rams will be without several first teamers for this game. But as the regulars don’t play much in exhibition openers, I’ll pretty much overlook that fact. There’s no question the new coaching staff is excited about getting on the field, so there should be lots of enthusiasm.
As for Dallas, I have no idea where their heads are at with the surprising jolt received via the lengthy Ezekiel Elliot suspension. I don’t think there’s any question it has to be a distraction. So while Dallas is clearly the more talented team, mindset is the big key factor in these early preseason games and I would give that edge to the home team under the unusual circumstances.
Scott Rickenbach
New York at Philadelphia
Play: New York +126
The Phillies are favored with good reason here as Aaron Nola has been pitching very well for them and Steven Matz has been struggling for the Mets. However, there is reason to believe that things will "turn around" in this start for both of these hurlers. Nola faced the Mets earlier this season and it did not go well and he now has a 10.00 ERA in his two starts versus New York in his career. As for Matz, even though the Mets are division rivals of the Phillies, he has somehow managed to avoid them thus far in his career. That is a big edge for the New York southpaw as the Phillies hitters have no experience against him. Additionally, even though his recent ERA is ugly, he has pitched a little better in his last two starts and allowed a total of only 12 hits in 10 and 1/3 innings. In his most recent start Matz did strikeout 7 Dodgers in his 5 and 1/3 innings and, as long as he avoids the "big hits" that have been his downfall in his last two starts, Matz is likely to excel here against a weak Phillies team. Lets not forget that Philadelphia has the WORST record in ALL of baseball and yet they are a moderately priced favorite here even though they truly may not have the pitching edge (based on match-ups as noted above). That said, I am grabbing the underdog value here with a Mets team that has won all 5 games against the Phils in Philly this season.
Andrew Marchenko
Huddersfield Town vs. Crystal Palace
Play: Crystal Palace -135
Huddersfield is a newcommer and it will be very difficult for them to get some points from the away game in one of the loudest arenas in England. Palace is a strong team of the middle table that does not loose points against outsiders and especially at home. Huddersfield does not have enough experience to play well against the well-built team with players like Zaa, Benteke, Townsend, Cabaye, etc.
Brandon Lee
Orioles vs. A's
Play: A's -106
I expect most to be on the Orioles in this one. The Orioles have a red-hot starter in Dylan Bundy, while Oakland's Sean Manaea has an ugly 6.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. Vegas clearly sees something in the A's to set this line and I'm jumping on board. Baltimore is not a good road team and Manaea does have a respectable 3.77 ERA in 10 home starts. A's are also 7-1 in Manaea career when listed as a favorite of -150 or less.
Art Aronson
Orioles vs. Athletics
Play: Over 8½
Dylan Bundy: He’s 11-8 with 4.15 ERA. Bundy gave up two runs off five hits while striking out ten over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Monday. Bundy has been hit or miss for the Orioles this season and owns a 5-4, 4.55 ERA on the road.
Sean Manaea: He’s 8-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Manaea most recently was shelled for six runs off six hits with one strikeout over 3.1 innings against the Angels on Sunday. Manaea comes in off back-to-back disasters, lasting a combined 6.1 innings while allowing 12 runs in two starts.
The bottom line: Bundy has been at his worst on the road this year, while Manaea is a complete train-wreck at the moment. This should be enough to push this total above the posted number.
Marc Lawrence
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -105
Edges - Mariners: Erasmo Ramirez 5-0 with 3.33 ERA and 1.11 WHIP home team starts this season as opposed to 2-3 away with 10.35 ERA and 1.95 WHIP; and 4-1 team starts vs AL West this season… Angels: JC Ramirez 10 BBs and 9 Ks last three overall starts… With Erasmo Ramirez 4-1 in his team starts at night this campaign, we’ll stay at home with the M’s in this Ramirez & Ramirez law firm showdown tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Seattle.
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Under 8½
Given the rivalry between these two teams and the fact that it's August and both are fighting for the AL East title and playoff spot, the atmosphere here is going to be like the postseason. Given how much each team is going to value this win and the fact we have two red-hot starters on the mound, runs should be tough to come by.
Yankees are sending out one of the biggest surprises of the season in Luis Severino, who is sitting here with a 2.91 ERA and 1.069 WHIP in 22 starts. He's not showing any signs of slowing down with a 0.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston counters with Drew Pomeranz, who also has been better than expected. He's 11-4 with a 3.36 ERA in 22 starts. He's also trending in the right direction with a 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts.
Chase Diamond
Padres vs. Dodgers
Play: Padres +223
This game features the 51-64 Padres at the 81-34 Dodgers. The Dodgers got upset by the Padres last night and I like them tonight again. Dodgers are 16 games up and have #1 seed basically locked up with about a 13 game lead on Nationals not much motivation against a bad Padres team that hates the Dodgers. For me it comes down to Jhoulys Chacin pitching this guy has very good stuff he is 11-8 with a 4.15 ERA he faces Ryu of the Dodgers. Chacin has a 2.75 ERA since June 9th. Love the big plus money so we will take a shot at the Padres tonight.
Matt Josephs
Braves vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 9
Lucas Sims is making his third major league start on Saturday. Sims has allowed seven runs and 12 hits in 12 innings of work. He didn't pitch too badly at home against the Dodgers in his debut. The Cardinals offense is in good form right now, but I think they might struggle at first with the rookie pitcher. The Braves bullpen has 10 losses and nine blown saves on the road. Carlos Martinez is 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 11 home starts. The righty is pitching better as of late. He'll face an Atlanta lineup that is very inconsistent and has been hitting under lately. Both bullpens scare me, but I'm hoping that the starters will do work and keep the pen door shut.
Cajun Sports
Chicago vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona +115
The Chicago Cubs are in the desert for a three-game weekend set against the host Arizona Diamondbacks. The matchup on Saturday has two starters who just faced one another back on August 1st with the Cubs winning that game at home 16 to 4. The Cubs will send Jon Lester to the bump knowing he is 4-3 SU on the road this season with an ERA of 4.25. In their first matchup in Chicago Lester threw four innings allowing three earned runs on five hits and Lester was not involved in the decision. For the Diamondbacks they will send Pat Corbin to the hill knowing he is 6-3 SU at home this season with an ERA of 3.14 and the team is 8-4 SU behind him. In their first meeting back on August 1st Corbin went just three innings allowing seven runs on ten hits in the loss. That was a bit of a surprise because Corbin has a career mark of 3-1 SU against the Cubs and giving up seven runs certainly hurt his ERA which now stands at 5.73 against the Cubs over his career. We look for Corbin to bounce back here tonight because of their previous loss to the Cubs with Corbin facing Lester in Chicago qualifies the Diamondbacks and Corbin in one of our same-season bounce back situations which has the Diamondbacks in a better than 70 percent winning situation tonight. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.34 runs in favor of the Diamondbacks. The SPMatrix has Pat Corbin with an average of 6.27 compared to Jon Lester who has an average of 5.98. A check of our powerful database reveals a league-wide system that is active for this game. We want to play ON MLB teams when their starter struck out at least nine batters in his last start. This system has a record of 132-71 SU (65%) for a profit of +4091 units. The value in this contest is on the home team based on strong information and a solid situational advantage.
Brandon Shively
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Under 8
The Indians offense is very inconsistent, and Chris Archer is having the best season of his career. Archer has been striking out batters at an extremely high rate as he always did, but he's cut back on the walks in a big way, and that's been the big key to his success. I think he pitches well here.
Clevinger has been good overall for the Indians this year, and the Rays offense is really scuffling right now. The Indians have a very good bullpen even without Andrew Miller.
Zack Cimini
New York at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -131
Saturday’s featured free play comes on the Phillies. Philadelphia received attractive money yesterday that swayed the money line ten dollars. It didn’t pan out as the Mets were able to deliver one more run than the Mets. Yet, Saturday look for the Phillies to finally break through and snap an impressive Mets streak in Philadelphia.
Jim Feist
Giants at Nationals
Pick: Under
San Francisco has a poor offense and is a long way from home. The Under is 6-2-2 in Jeff Samardzija's last 10 starts vs. the National League East. Washington is a big park, great for pitchers, and the team is 13-3-1 under the total against the NL West. Mad Max Scherzer (2.23 ERA, 12-5) is on the mound with 210 Ks allowing 2, 0 and 1 run his last three starts. Scherzer allowed two runs on five hits and two walks over seven innings in a no-decision Monday against the Marlins. He struck out nine. The Under is 15-7-1 in his last 23 home starts. And the Under is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
HAMILTON +133 over Winnipeg
We watch CFL just like the rest of the market. We have seen the Tigercats crap the bed in almost every quarter of every one of their six games this year just like the rest of the market. We understand that the ‘Cats have almost no appeal and that they are very likely as bad as they look. The defense looks horrible, the offense looks broken, the coaching staff looks clueless and the fans in the stands look ugly and hairy. The men don’t look so good either. It is rather impossible to make a case for Hamilton here if we’re looking at X’s and O’s but we’re not looking at X’s and O’s because there are other more important factors to consider. If X’s and O’s won and covered every game, we’d all be rich. Situationally, Hamilton will not be in a better spot all year and that is the basis for this choice.
Winnipeg is coming off two improbable wins in a row over Montreal and Ottawa respectively. Against the Als two weeks ago, the Bombers pulled a rabbit, the size of Manitoba, out of their hats when they rallied from 12 down with 58 seconds remaining to pull out a miraculous 41-40 victory. About 20 things had to go perfect for Winnipeg to rally and it did, including an onside kick. Last week, we explained why Winnipeg won and it wasn’t because they were the better team. It was because Ottawa’s Coach Rick Campbell has no idea how the scoring works in the CFL and handed the Bombers a gift (A full explanation of what happened can be found here).
That’s back-to-back miracle wins for the Bombers. Last week’s miracle victory was on the road on the East Coast. Two emotional wins in succession usually equals a letdown. The CFL docket consists of 18 games. Almost every team makes the playoffs so it’s not like every single game is crucial like it is in the NFL (16 games) or College (12 games). It would be unreasonable to expect any team to be sharp for all 18 games, thus, there will be games in which every team performs poorly. That’s the way this one sets up for the Bombers. You see, Winnipeg will play the 0-6 Tigercats here in Hamilton. On Thursday of this coming week, the Bombers play the 6-0 Eskimos back in Winnipeg. That gives the Bombers little time to prepare. This game is therefore sandwiched between two miracle and emotional wins and a showdown with the undefeated Eskies that the media and fans are anxiously anticipating. If Hamilton can’t take advantage of this perfect spot, shame on them. ‘Cats outright get this call.