Free Picks for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Ben Burns
BC Lions vs Redblacks
Play: Redblacks -2
The situation and schedule favors Ottawa in this one. Both teams played last Friday. The Redbacks "got healthy" with a momentum-building 37-18 win over Hamilton. With that game being played in southern Ontario, there was no travel between time zones. The Lions, on the other hand, are off a "deflating" 21-17 setback, on the West Coast, against Calgary. That close loss was preceded by a 41-8 thrashing at the hands of Saskatchewan. I think the Redblacks are probably catching them at the right time.
Robert Ferringo
Chicago at Tennessee
Play: Under 43.5
The Bears first-team defense has looked outstanding, allowing just 10 points in four quarters against the Broncos and Cardinals. They've gone 'over' in each of their first two preseason games, but I don't see them going 3-0 against the total. The Titans are coming off a really high-scoring game against Carolina (34-27). They managed those 34 points despite just 360 yards of total offense and cashed in on two turnovers deep in Carolina territory for 14 cheap points. The Bears are No. 3 in the preseason in rushing attempts and the Titans are No. 7. I see both teams just trying to grind through this game and both pounding the ball on the ground. I don't think either offense is going to break out, and I can see this one somewhere in the 23-13 range.
Raphael Esparza
Mayweather / McGregor Over 4.5 Rounds
I know this juice is high, but if you take a breath and think about both fighters there is no way this fight ends in 5 rounds or less. Mayweather has one of the best boxing defenses I have ever seen in the boxing ring, and his boxing style will bother McGregor early and often. If anybody is getting KO'd it will be in the later rounds, and I believe this 4.5 Round Prop should be around -600 or higher. I know this fight is a circus, and the cost to watch this fight is outrageous, but there are two great undercard fights on the card as well. It wouldn't shock me to see this mega-fight go the distance, and this fight will see the later rounds.
Sean Higgs
South Florida vs. San Jose State
Play: San Jose State +22
So, pretty simple in my thinking on this one. First, a pair of new HCs for these teams. Charlie Strong ousted in Texas, takes over a pretty talented South Florida team. But never easy to lay 3 TDs and travel 3000 miles cross country to open a season. Not saying that USF will be a bad club. Just this is a tough spot to lay this number.
And why is that? Spartans also have a new regime. What really stands out to me here though is the OC. He was part of the offense in Texas with Charlie Strong and his OC Sterlin Gilbert. We only need the slightest bit of edge to slow down an offense just an ounce. Being familiar with what could be coming at you is never a bad thing.
The Bulls have a very talented QB and offense overall. Most times I am taking dogs and not even worry about points as I think they should win outright. But with a number like this, I am thinking it is close for a half before we might need one of those late back door covers. Ether way, I feel good about this home puppy.
Cappers Club
Hawaii vs. UMass
Play: Over 61½
The UMass Minutemen and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors kick off on Saturday, and after how they showed out last year the over has a lot of value.
Last year these two teams faced off and the Rainbow Warriors won by a final score of 46-40 and I expect a game like that again this year.
Last year the Rainbow Warriors offense had their way with the Minutmen defense, and with most of the key players back from last year, nothing should change.
Quarterback Dru Brown threw for 311 yards and five touchdowns last year against UMass and I would expect something like that again.
The Rainbow Warriors defense also struggles so UMass should have no issue running up the score when they are on offense.
Some trends to note. Over is 6-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 6 non-conference games. Over is 5-1 in Minutemen last 6 games overall.
ASA
South Florida vs. San Jose St
Play: South Florida -21
A pair of new head coaches matched up in this one but the head coaching experience edge goes to the Bulls Charlie Strong here. He also inherits the much more talented team including a very potent offense with QB Quinton Flowers and a host of returning talent for South Florida. The weakness for the Bulls was defense last season but that has been the focus for Strong and he'll have this unit ready to go early this season. That said, and with a match-up against an FCS team (Stonybrook) on deck, Strong wants to make a statement in this opening game of the season. With the point-spread coming back down to a 21 (from as high as a 22.5) we like the value here with USF as of Friday afternoon and we're laying the 21 points. The Bulls are on an 11-4 ATS run as a favorite and, overall, in Saturday games South Florida is on a 14-5 ATS run. The Spartans had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year and are now led by a 44-year old head coach, Brent Brennan, whom has no head coaching experience. San Jose State is on a 2-5 ATS run as a big dog of 13 points or more the past 3 seasons combined. Strong has some pent up frustration from the way his tenure ended at Texas. He will take out his frustration on San Jose State!
Scott Rickenbach
Oregon State vs. Colorado State
Play: Oregon State +4
Even though the Rams are opening up their new stadium and that will give them some extra motivation, the fact is that this is a tough spot for them as they have their rivalry game with Colorado on deck. As for the Beavers, they only have an FCS team (Portland State) on deck and that is set for Saturday while Colorado State is facing the Buffaloes Friday. Oregon State comes from the tougher conference and that is certainly noteworthy here as the Rams are on a long-term 4-12 SU (5-10-1 ATS) run against Pac-12 opponents. The Beavers are on a long-term 10-7 ATS (13-4 SU) run against Mountain West opponents. While Colorado State's strength is on the offensive side of the ball, Oregon State has the better defense. The Beavers do run the ball well and the Rams struggled to stop the run last season. I like having the better defense with a road dog that can also establish the running game. That said, I'll grab the line value with the points being offered in this one and, in doing so, I'll be grabbing the team from the much stronger conference as well.
Doug Upstone
Oregon St vs. Colorado St
Play: Over 60
The first battle of the new season will be played in a brand new venue, currently named Colorado State Stadium. The pictures are gorgeous and both squads have their starting quarterbacks returning. The betting interest has been on the totals side, dumping it 62.5 to 60. Each team does bring back eight defensive starters from ordinary defenses. With the Rams at home, a good team and excited about first game in a new stadium, I prefer the higher score.
ASA
South Florida vs. San Jose State
Play: South Florida -21
A pair of new head coaches matched up in this one but the head coaching experience edge goes to the Bulls Charlie Strong here. He also inherits the much more talented team including a very potent offense with QB Quinton Flowers and a host of returning talent for South Florida. The weakness for the Bulls was defense last season but that has been the focus for Strong and he'll have this unit ready to go early this season. That said, and with a match-up against an FCS team (Stonybrook) on deck, Strong wants to make a statement in this opening game of the season. With the point-spread coming back down to a 21 (from as high as a 22.5) we like the value here with USF as of Friday afternoon and we're laying the 21 points. The Bulls are on an 11-4 ATS run as a favorite and, overall, in Saturday games South Florida is on a 14-5 ATS run. The Spartans had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year and are now led by a 44-year old head coach, Brent Brennan, whom has no head coaching experience. San Jose State is on a 2-5 ATS run as a big dog of 13 points or more the past 3 seasons combined. Strong has some pent up frustration from the way his tenure ended at Texas. He will take out his frustration on San Jose State!
Art Aronson
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½
Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that runs will likely be at a premium in this one.
Madison Bumgarner: He’s 3-5 with a 2.87 ERA. Bumgarner gave up one run off four hits over six innings against Philadelphia on Sunday, also walking one and striking out seven in the unfortunate no-decision. Bumgarner will be looking to finish the season strong despite the Giants now almost completely without hope in making the playoffs (note that he owns a 2.85 ERA on the road.)
Taijuan Walker: He’s 6-7 with a 3.66 ERA. Walker went 5.1 scoreless innings against the Mets on Monday, also unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his superb effort. Walker sports a respectable 1.32 WHP and 8.0 K/9.
The bottom line: We’re expecting these competent hurlers to battle into the latter frames.
Sean Murphy
Raiders vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -3
I'll lay the points with the Cowboys on Saturday night. Dallas has the advantage of staying home for a second straight week while the Raiders will be playing in their third city in as many weeks. Of course, Dallas also has the advantage of playing its fourth game of the preseason. The Cowboys starters should see extended time in this one. While the same can be said for the Raiders first unit on both sides of the football, I'm not sure we'll see a real sense of urgency. Yes, Oakland is winless so far but a victory is by no means a must on Saturday night. I simply feel the Cowboys have a considerable edge in terms of depth, and they've looked every bit like a team that's interested in setting a winning tone here in August.
Jack Jones
Oregon State vs. Colorado State
Play: Oregon State +4
The Oregon State Beavers enter Year 3 under head coach Gary Andersen in 2017. This is the year where he has the players he recruited getting most of the playing time, and it's the year that they have a good chance of getting to a bowl game.
After going 2-10 in 2015 with only 9 returning starters, the Beavers went 4-8 last year with 13 starters back. But they were better than their record and a money-making machine as they went 9-3 ATS. They were way more competitive against the big bows as they were really only blown out twice.
Now the Beavers have 15 starters back in 2017 and this will be Andersen's best team yet. He has a stud JUCO transfer at quarterback in Jake Luton. The running game averaged 5.2 yards per carry last year and brings back their top two rushers in Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce.
They made a big improvement defensively last year and should take a big jump again with eight starters back. Six of seven starters are back among the front seven, which will be the strength of their defense. I really believe this team is flying under the radar right now.
The betting public loves Colorado State because of the way they finished last year offensively. They scored 37 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. But they also lost 50-61 to lowly Idaho in their bowl game. And their defense is going to be a problem again.
While they may have the better offense in this game, the Rams' defense isn't going to be able to stop Oregon State. The Rams gave up 214 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry last year, which plays right into the Beavers' offensive strength with their rushing attack. Keep in mind that Colorado State lost 7-44 to Colorado last year, a fellow Pac-12 conference opponent of Oregon State.
Andersen is 20-8 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Andersen is 24-11 ATS in non-conference games in his career as well. The Beavers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Dennis Macklin
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 9
While their performance hasn't necessarily translated to wins, both these starters have been pretty good all year. Mad Bum (3-5, 2.87, 7-4 Under 11 starts) has been good all year when he's not riding quads. Walker rocks a decent 3.66 ERA in his 21 starts and comes off 5 2/3 shutout innings in his last start. Giants ... four straight unders. Snakes are 3-1 Under in L4 and hitting just .207 in their L7 games.
Mike Anthony
Hawaii vs. UMass
Play: Over 61
The UMass Minutemen and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors kick off on Saturday in College Football action. Last year these two teams faced off and the Warriors won by a final score of 46-40 and I expect a game like that again this year. Last year the Warriors offense had their way with the Minutmen defense, and with most of the key players back from last year, nothing should change. Quarterback Dru Brown threw for 311 yards and five touchdowns last year against UMass and I would expect something like that again. The Rainbow Warriors defense also struggles so UMass should have no issue running up the score when they are on offense. Some trends to note. Over is 6-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 6 non-conference games. Over is 5-1 in Minutemen last 6 games overall.