Power Sports
San Diego vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -110
You can't help but want to go against the horrible Padres at this price. I went against them yday, here in Miami, and the result ended up being 8-6 in mine and the Marlins' favor. The rationale will remain largely the same here. this team has been outscored by more runs than any other in baseball (-150 run diff). Most of that damage has come on the road where they are 24-41 and -1.6 rpg. If we're being honest (I always like to be!) here, as bad as the Padres' record is right now (57-71), it ought to be even worse. Based on run differential, they have a win expectancy of only 47 games. That 10-game differential between actual and expected wins is by far the largest in the National League!
Like seemingly every other starter in the Padres' rotation, Dinelson Lamet struggles on the road. He has a 5.72 ERA and 1.423 WHIP. Therefore, he should feel fortunate to have a 4-4 TSR outside of Petco Park. While Lamet has allowed 2 ER or less in all six starts since the Break, the two that were on the road came against the Reds and Giants, two very bad teams. I expect him to struggle Saturday.
Omar Despaigne makes just his second start of the year for the Marlins. The first was back in May. Considering San Diego, who is the lowest scoring team in baseball (also last in batting average and OBP), scored six runs last night, I expect them to struggle at the plate Saturday. You just don't see this team string together B2B strong offensive performances very often. Despaigne should also bank on plenty of offensive support. Miami has scored 6+ runs in five of the last six games.
Zack Cimini
Detroit at Chicago
Pick: Chicago
Saturday the Tigers will call upon pitcher Buck Farmer for a spot start. Facing the White Sox could be a good thing for Farmer. On May 27th he delivered a three-hit victory with no runs allowed against the White Sox. Still look for the value here on the home White Sox who are playing with more confidence heading into the final month of the MLB season.
Brandon Shively
Stanford vs. Rice
Pick: Under 51.5
This Under has a lot of factors that play into it.
Both teams will be going into unfamiliar territory in Australia. While the experience is one thing, nerves will certainly play a role here in this one.
Both teams are run first offenses as well. Rice has always been a ground and pound team and they're going to do the same thing here against a Stanford defense that is one of the best in the PAC-12. Stanford will be in rebuild like mode offensively, which will lead them to chewing up a lot of clock.
This should be a slow developing game.
Jim Feist
Rockies at Braves
Pick: Under
This is a good park to pitch in and Colorado is a long way from home on a 5-1 run under. The Under is also 15-5-1 when the Rockies are on the road against a left-handed starter, plus 17-4-2 under when Freeland starts. Atlanta has a weak offense, 24-10-3 under the total at home. And the Under is 19-7-2 in the Braves last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Scott Spreitzer
Arizona vs. Atlanta
Play: Arizona +3.5
We expect to see Arizona's starters playing into the third quarter by all indications, although Carson Palmer will likely be done by halftime. We like the Cardinal QB rotation in the second half, beginning with Drew Stanton who may see some time with regulars before giving away to the preseason-capable Blaine Gabbert. Bruce Arians is half-a-point away from a 6-1-1 ATS run as a preseason underdog. Atlanta HC Dan Quinn hasn't put a lot of stock into the so called Dress Rehearsal week. His Falcons are 0-2 in these games and he has sat his starters early-on in each of the last two preseasons. We don't expect to see Matt Ryan for more than a quarter and we expect a departure time much earlier than most of their 1st string counterparts.
Executive Sports
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore
Play: Buffalo +3.5
Although the pre-season means nothing other than evaluating talent and certain schemes and game plans, teams do like to instill some confidence as they approach the regular season. The Bills come in at 0-2 so far, while Baltimore is 2-0. Bills will try a little harder to come out on the winning end of this one, as no one likes to have that goose egg in the win column no matter what time of the year it is.
Jimmy Boyd
Oregon State vs. Colorado State
Play: Oregon State +4
After a closer inspection of this game, I like the value with the Beavers catching over a field goal against the Rams. Despite finishing just 4-8 last year, Oregon State made big improvements in year two under head coach Gary Anderson. They were a lot more competitive than people think and closed out the season with back-to-back double-digit wins over Arizona and Oregon.
I know the Beavers haven't won a road game under Anderson (0-11), but this is by far their best chance, as they played at Michigan in 2015 and at Minnesota last year in their only two road games outside of the conference. Colorado State has high expectations this season, but are simply getting way to much respect here against a Power 5 program.
Last year the Beavers averaged 26.2 ppg, which was a massive improvement from the 19.0 ppg they put up in 2015. This year they got 7 starters back on offense, plus are adding in talented Juco transfer Jake Luton to take over at quarterback. That could take this offense to the next level, as they got two dynamic runners in Ryan Nall (6.5 yards/carry) and Artavis Pierce (5.3 yards/carry).
That ground attack figures to pose problems for the Rams, who allowed 214 yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry against the run last year. While Colorado State has 8 starters back on defense, they lost the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kevin Davis, who led the team with 110 tackles. All the talk is about the Rams and their offense, but I look for the Beavers to have the easier time moving the ball in this one.
Dave Price
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play:Diamondbacks -120
We are getting the Arizona Diamondbacks at a great price at home here against the San Francisco Giants. The Diamondbacks obviously have a lot more to play for right now than the Giants do. And Taijuan Walker has been solid in his first season in Arizona, going 6-7 with a 3.66 ERA across 21 starts. He is 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco, 3 of which have come this season. Madison Bumgarner is still a great starter in this league, but he has actually lost his 2 starts against Arizona this year. The Giants are 3-9 in his 12 starts this year. Bumgarner is 0-7 (-10.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. The Diamondbacks are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play is Hawaii and UMass to land Over the total.
When the schools played last November in Honolulu, they combined for a massive 86 total points in a game that shattered the posted total of 57-points.
Look for another Over between Hawaii and Massachusetts, as both starting quarterbacks from last year's meeting do return, and let's remember that the Rainbow Warriors did end the season last year by playing Over the total in their last pair of games, and 6 of their final 8 overall - that UMass meeting included.
The Minutemen also ended last year with some higher-scoring contests, as their final 3 - including the Hawaii meeting - and 7 of their final 9 games also landed Over the posted price.
Can't see too much changing less than a year later.
Rainbow Warriors and the Minutemen score early-and-often. Play the Over.
4* HAWAII-MASSACHUSETTS OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners, and be sure to list Yovani Gallardo and Sonny Gray.
Gallardo, the veteran presence in the rotation, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 11 starts and he's been a quality starter to the injury-riddled rotation. But, he also has a 6.32 career ERA against the Yankees, and will struggle in this one.
Meanwhile, despite a 1-3 record in four starts since being acquired by New York, Gray has been consistent with his new team. He turned in three straight quality starts before allowing two runs and seven hits in five innings against Boston his last time out.
Take the Yankees, as Gray shines in this one.
2* YANKEES -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Over the total in Detroit-Chicago.
I am feeling some runs on the South Side of Chicago this Saturday night when the Tigers and the White Sox meet for the second time this weekend.
Last night the pitching won out, as the teams held Under the total, but tonight will be the hitters turn to take the spotlight.
Even with last night's Under, the Tigers are still 12-4 Over the total their last 16 games contested, and the series numbers still show 8 of the last 11 series meetings in the Over department.
The Tigers will give the ball to Buck Farmer who is back up with the big club for his first start in over 2 months. Farmer sports a season ERA of 6.62 in just under 18 innings of work.
The White Sox will go with Carlos Rodon who has been much better than Farmer for sure - season ERA of 3.88 - but has seen his last pair of starts end up playing Over the total.
Have to stick with the offense to do the damage yet again in this series, as these division-rivals play Over the posted price.
3* DETROIT-WHITE SOX OVER
Jack Brayman
My free play is in college football, as I like the South Florida Bulls to waltz through San Jose and dominate the Spartans, wire-to-wire.
The Bulls, the first ranked team to take the field this season, are playing their first game under their new coach, Charlie Strong, in a matchup of coaches making their debut.
San Jose State is now under the direction of Brent Brennan.
South Florida has made it no secret it is using this game to justify its preseason ranking and can make an early case as the best team from the Group of Five conferences, with a blowout win.
The Spartans won't have an answer for quarterback Quinton Flowers, the 2016 American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year who was one of the most productive players in the nation as a junior, when he rushed for a school-record 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns while firing for 2,812 yards and 24 touchdowns versus a mere eight interceptions.
And the Spartans will surely will struggle moving the ball against South Florida'a improved defense that allowed 31.6 points per game last season.
4* SOUTH FLORIDA
3G-Sports
Cleveland vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -5.5
Tampa Bay had a major eye opener - after putting up just 12 pts vs Jacksonville as they finished with the lazy win. The nonstop motor of the D of Tampa Bay will cause far too many problems for any offensive line as their LBs have shown. Winston and Mike Evans are an awful lot to handle for any team, let alone the guys of Cleveland. Doug Martin will be on attack mode - to try and shore up the RB position for Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The 23 year old QB has not been the most dominant QB in the NFL - but Jameis Winston can be the next best thing the Bucs could've hoped for. The biggest problem for Cleveland is they need to get better production from their offense - and Cleveland also desperately needs some sort of depth on defense as well. Cleveland is heading in the right direction, but matched up vs a budding team like the Bucs isn't the way to reset the wheels. Browns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games Tampa Bay wins by 14
Frank Jordan
Texas vs. Oakland
Play: Texas -113
Texas had nine hits last night, but it yielded just a single run losing to Oakland 3-1 as Oakland put their hits together their 4 hits for their three runs. Texas has 9-1 Cole Hamels with a 3.42 ERA and has won each of his last four starts allowing just six runs in those four starts. Hamels is 3-1 on the road this season with a 3.81 ERA and is 5-1 overall with a 3.33 ERA since the break. In his career against Oakland Hamels has made five starts and is 2-1 with a 2.94 and in Oakland he is 2-0 in three starts with a 1.37 ERA. Oakland has Sean Manaea who is 8-8 with a 4.58 ERA and is 2-4 in his last 10 starts and the A's are 3-7 in those 10 starts. Manaea is 4-3 at home this season with a 4.68 ERA is 11 starts. This year Manaea is 0-1 with an ERA over eight against Texas allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings. Look for Manaea to continue his struggles against the tough Texas line up and Hamels to continue his low runs allowed in Oakland as the Rangers win 7-2.
Harry Bondi
COLORADO STATE (-3.5) over Oregon State
With the Rams breaking in their new state-of-the-art stadium and holding the huge advantage of living and practicing in the high altitude for the past few months, we’ll gladly lay the short price and back Colorado State on the opening Saturday of the college football season. The CSU offense is loaded and returns Nick Stevens at QB. After getting benched early last year, Stevens took back the starting job for the final seven games and put up some impressive numbers and led the team to a bowl game. We expect that to carry over into this season as the team also returns a slew of offensive lineman and some talented skill position players. The Rams have covered nine of their last 12 home games and will christen their new stadium with a decisive win over an Oregon State team that is on the upswing, but not ready to go on the road and pull off an upset over a veteran team like Colorado State.