Free Picks for Saturday, December 17th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
APPALACHIAN STATE VS TOLEDO
PLAY: APPALACHIAN STATE +1.5
I have a clear philosophy in the early bowl games. Simply stated, try to find the more interested team and if the data matches up, it’s a play. Appalachian State appears to fit here.
The Mountaineers seem to be pretty excited about heading to Alabama for another appearance in the Camellia Bowl, which they won last year. This has been a very good week for the Appalachian State program, as there was considerable angst that head coach Scott Satterfield might be heading to a more high profile gig. But he’s staying put for at least one more season.
Toledo head coach Jason Candle is saying all the right things, but I’m not sure the Rockets are all that excited about being here. They haven’t played since getting bombed out by Western Michigan in what was their biggest regular season game. Just my two cents, but I’m not convinced that facing a Sun Belt team will be the charge to fire up the Rockets.
There’s also a nice little stat angle here. Last bowl season, if you simply played every team, favorite or dog, that has better offensive and defensive rushing stats, you did extremely well. I’m not saying the results will be quite as spectacular as they were a year ago, but I’d be very surprised if this blind angle didn’t at least produce a small profit.
Appalachian State fits on the aforementioned angle, so that’s a plus. My power ratings do give a slight edge to Toledo on a neutral field but it’s very close. Throw in the ground game numbers plus what I’m perceiving as perhaps a bit more interest on the part of the Mountaineers and I’m good to go taking the small spread here. Appalachian State is the play for me.
Sleepyj
Miami -130
I'll take a shot here with the Dolphins...i know this game will be in cold weather etc, etc....This could actually help the Dolphins though...The Jets have had about enough of this season and this game would be a much tougher contest in the elements if New York was a factor....In order to win in the cold and snow etc, you need a strong arm QB, which is a question mark, a running game and a defense that is good...Well I feel the Dolphins have all that...Not at an elite level, but are the Jets at an elite level or mid grade level at anything these days...Jets won last week and that alone might be enough for them to hang their hats on for the season...Now a long trip back home might hurt them....Dolphins are right in the thick of the playoffs right now and a loss would cripple them....A win however puts them in the drivers seat once again.....Phins got the Jets, Bills and Pats....It's a good chance the pats rest guys the last week...If they do and the Dolphins sneek in the playoffs, the Pats might just be hosting them at home if they just lay down....I think the outlook for the Dolphins is good here....The Jets have won 4 games all year....They haven't even beat a good team...Ravens might count as good, but the Browns, 49ers and Bills..not so much....Miami on the other hand has beaten some good teams this year....Miami is on 7-1 run right now and they have it together really in all phases....Matt Moore will go for the Phins, but I feel they can use enough of Jay Ajayi and use the big weapons the Phins have to hold on to a win here.
Alex Smith
Appalachian State vs. Toledo
Play: Appalachian State +1
Appalachian State won the Camellia Bowl last year with a narrow 31-28 triumph over Ohio. It was the Mountaineers’ first ever bowl appearance at the FBS level. Toledo are playing in its fourth consecutive bowl game having won the previous three. Both clubs enter this game with identical 9-3 records. Two of Appalachian State’s losses coming against power five clubs; Tennessee and Miami (FL). The Mountaineers nearly pulled off a big upset in Knoxville, eventually losing in overtime. After the home blowout to the Hurricanes, the Mountaineers ripped off six consecutive wins and eight of their last nine to clinch a share of the Sun Belt title. Toledo finished second in the MAC West just behind undefeated Western Michigan. They played a relatively easy schedule with their toughest non-conference opponent being BYU on the road (55-53 loss). Both teams are led by strong running backs; Kareem Hunt for Toledo, Jalen Moore for Appalachian State who was named Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. APSU's defense gets the edge in this game having allowed five yards per play or fewer in eight of 12 contests. Toledo boasted the best offense in the MAC at over 7 yards per play in league play but it was somewhat negated as the Rockets allowed over 6 yards per play. Appalachian State meanwhile dominated Sun Belt play with a 2.52 ypp advantage in conference games. While the MAC West is power rated ahead of the Sun Belt, the gap is minimal. I expect Appalachian's fan base to travel with Montgomery a driveable seven hour trip. Not so sure Toledo will be well represented with distance and underwhelming location a factor. With one of the best mid-major stop units in the country, I'll side with the short underdog in this contest.
Mike Anthony
Houston vs. San Diego St
Play: San Diego St +3.5
Not exactly the kind of bowl game Houston had in mind this season and it’ll be interesting to see how that effects this squad’s motivation. Houston is also in the midst of a change at the head coaching position which usually has a negative effect on a team heading into a bowl game, especially when it’s a coach moving up to better job.
The San Diego State Aztecs had some questionable results this season mixed in with what was largely a successful campaign. SDSU had some unexplainable results losing in blowout fashion against teams like South Alabama and Colorado State, but the Aztecs were still able to win the MWC beating Wyoming in the title game on the road by a final of 27-24. Outside of a few bad defensive performances, SDSU largely played off their defensive strengths as this squad ranks 19th in the nation in total defense and 30th in scoring average. Veteran RB Donnel Pumphrey had the kind of dominating season everyone was expecting as he lifted the offense rushing for over 2,000 yards and 16 TDs. San Diego State has more motivation coming into this one and that should be the difference maker as the Aztecs go on to cover the spread.
Wunderdog
Houston vs. San Diego St
Pick: San Diego St +4
The Houston Cougars can only reflect on what could have been. This was a team that appeared to be headed to a G5 New Year's Bowl bid, but just had some awful games, none worse than the SMU game. The team then suffered another surprise loss to Navy where they were run to death. It is hard to imagine this team with any focus at all here, playing a Mountain West Conference opponent is hardly going to get their juices flowing. They also have lost their coach who has moved on to take the job at Texas. There is just too much baggage coming into this game for the Cougars. Speaking of running to death, San Diego State is likely going to feed the ball to Donnell Humphrey, and with good reason. Humphrey has ground out 6,290 yards in his career, and with 108 rushing yards in this one, he will pass Ron Dayne and become the all-time rushing leader in NCAAF history. That should be a motivating factor for the Aztecs. San Diego State averaged winning their games by 14.3 points per game this season, and have a very good defense that appeared to tire down the stretch, but should be well rested for this one.
DAVE COKIN
SO MISSISSIPPI VS UL LAFAYETTE
PLAY: UL LAFAYETTE +5
Southern Mississippi is a tough team to figure out. The Golden Eagles have been very inconsistent all season, even within games in addition to being that way from week to week. This started right at the outset, where they got blown away early by Kentucky and then staged a remarkable rally to win. But there were far more down results late, and I’m not putting much into the upset of Louisiana Tech as the Bulldogs were clearly not focused with the big showdown against Western Kentucky for the league title on deck.
UL Lafayette played its best football late and I like this team’s defense. Elijah McGuire should be the healthiest he’s been all season and he’s the key to the Cajuns offense. The Golden Eagles have a very solid QB in Mullens, and there’s no question that the right Southern Miss team can win this. But I like the momentum on the underdog side, and they’re very excited about this game.
For those into bowl angles, there are a couple of good ones here. Unfortunately, one points to the underdog while the other indicates the favorite. I’m not much of a trend player, but if it’s long term and there’s a sound and logical rationale as to why it works, I’ll definitely give it some weight. The offset here brought me right back to the matchup itself, and I’m of the opinion that as this line has risen, so has the value factor with the underdog. I’m siding with UL Lafayette to at least score the cover if not the outright win.
Raphael Esparza
Miami / New York Over 38
These two teams played each other in early November and the Dolphins won at home 27-23 and that game went OVER, and Saturday night I see another matchup between these two teams going OVER. The Dolphins last 3-games have gone OVER, and in their last 7 games 6 of them have got the OVER. I know QB Moore will be behind center for the Dolphins and that might scare people on betting the over, but Saturday night I see both offenses moving the ball and scoring early points. Miami is 5-1 O/U against AFC East teams and the New York Jets are 3-1-1 O/U against AFC opponents.
Vernon Croy
Miami (-2.5) over New York
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and Miami is the better overall team, even with the injuries, in this situational game Saturday. The Jets just played on the west coast, beating a bad 49ers team after being down big early on in that game, and now they return home to take on a hot Dolphins team who have won 7 of their last 8 games. The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team with a losing record. The road team is 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 games played between these two teams, and the Dolphins just put up 26 points against a very solid Cardinals defense, so just think what they will do to the Jets Saturday night. Play Miami ATS with confidence.
Jack Jones
Miami Dolphins -2
The Dolphins have been flying under the radar for weeks now. They have won seven of their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens. This team is showing a ton of fight down the stretch as they currently sit tied with the Denver Broncos for the final wild card spot in the AFC at 8-5 on the year.
While the Dolphins have a lot to play for right now, the Jets simply do not. They pretty much packed it in in their most recent home game, an ugly 10-41 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They showed some fight last week in rallying from a 14-0 deficit to beat the 49ers in overtime, but that’s a 49ers team that has now lost 12 straight. I think that win is keeping this line lower than it should be as the Jets would be bigger dogs had they lost it.
I know Ryan Tannehill will miss a start for the first time in his career, but that’s OK because the Dolphins have one of the best backups in the business. There’s a reason Matt Moore has stuck around as a backup for most of the last decade, and it’s certainly not because he can’t play. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive last week against the Cardinals in a downpour.
Moore is better than any quarterback on the Jets’ roster in my opinion. Since they are out of playoff contention, the Jets are giving third-stringer Bryce Petty a shot down the stretch. Petty played OK against an awful 49ers defense last week, going 23-of-35 for 257 yards with an interception and zero touchdowns. But he didn't play well against a bad Colts defense the week before, and this Dolphins' defense is much better than both the Colts and 49ers.
Most teams have a good home-field advantage, but the Jets aren’t one of them. The fans won’t support them down the stretch, so actually playing at home is a disadvantage for them. This will feel like a home game for the Dolphins. The Jets laid an egg in their last home game on Monday Night Football against the Colts, and they are now just 1-5 at home this season.
The road team has actually dominated this series as well, furthering the notion that home field means nothing. The road team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings. The road team is also 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
Aside from the injury to Tannehill, the Dolphins are very healthy. The same cannot be said for the Jets. They had 12 players listed as did not participate or as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Five starters did not participate in RB Matt Forte, RT Brent Qvale, LB Lorenzo Mauldin, NT Steve McLendon and CB Buster Skrine. The top two receivers in Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa were limited participants. Not to mention, the Jets are without their glue at center in Nick Mangold.
The good news for Moore is that he can hand the ball off to Jay Ajayi and have success as the Dolphins average 4.5 yards per carry this season. The Jets have surrendered an average of 148 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. They gave up a whopping 248 yards on the ground to the 49ers last week and were fortunate to win.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) – with a poor first half defense – 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Brad Diamond
Houston vs San Diego State
Play: Houston
Not afraid to lay points versus offensive minded San Diego State (8-3) with the Cougars (9-3) playing a more difficult schedule during the year. Feel you will see some late money on the Strip Saturday for SDS but, not to worry as the emotional edge completely goes to Houston with a new offensive minded coach (Applewhite) looking for the big win to start his career off on a positive note down in Texas.
Technically, the Cougars have covered 8-of-10 at neutral sites and 16-5 ATS in non-conference. High flying Padres 0-4 ATS vs. >.500 units and 2-9-1 ATS in non-conference. In closing, the SDS is a real negative 2-6-1 ATS during the month of December.
Bryan Leonard
Appalachian State vs Toledo
Play: Appalachian State +1
Appalachian State and Toledo square off in in the Camellia Bowl which is slated to kickoff at 5:30 p.m. ET Saturday on the Cramton Bowl turf in Montgomery, Alabama. The Mountaineers concluded their regular season as co-champions of the Sun Belt Conference earning this bowl bid against the MAC West Championship runners-up Rockets.
Prefer the Mountaineers here who have already beaten MAC entrant Akron on the road earlier this year. App State has gotten consistently good line play, going seven straight games without losing the sack battle. This is also a club who has yet to lose the turnover battle by more than one in any game. The Mountaineers beat Ohio U in this very same bowl a year ago.
Toledo struggled when stepping up in class this year losing to BYU, Ohio U and Western Michigan. The Rockets peaked early as it crushed Sun Belt entrant Arkansas State in the opener, then blew out Fresno State. But since that time Toledo has been rather mediocre, good but not anything special. In what is expected to be a close game we will side with App State here to come away with the victory.
Buster Sports
Arkansas St. vs Central Florida
Play: Arkansas St. +5.5
This game has the Sun Belt conference going up against the AAC. Arkansas St are winners of 7 of their last 8 games. By doing so they won a share of the Sun Belt title. UCF lost its last 2 games of the year. The interesting part for UCF, they have lost the yardage battle in their last 8 games this year although they did pick up 4 wins. Arkansas St. comes into this game with the 42nd ranked defense and UCF has the 49th. Where we believe the difference in this game comes is on offense. Arkansas St. is ranked 79th but the UCF offense is a dreadful 107th in the nation. We see the Arkansas St. defense outplaying the UCF defensive and the offensive for Arkansas St. will put up enough points to win the game OR. Wrong team in our opinion is favored here as our numbers had Arkansas ST. minus 2. Remember this is a UCF team that was 0-12 last year, getting to play a Bowl game in Orlando might be the only victory this club was looking for this year. Lots of value here. At the time of this writing UCF was a 5 1/2 point favorite. Taking the points here all day long.
Cal Sports
Dolphins at Jets
Play: Jets +2.5
In their first game this season the Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets 27-23. The line closed at Miami -4 so it was a push while the 50 points went Over the Vegas O/U of 45.5. That win snapped a 3 game Jets win streak both SU & ATS.
The Dolphins are 8-5 and would be the first team out of the play-off if the season was to end now. Miami started the year 1-4 and won 6 straight prior to their loss in Baltimore 2 weeks ago. While the Dolphins did bounce back with a win versus Arizona, QB Ryan Tannehill was injured and Matt Moore who scored last week’s game winning TD will get the call. The Miami offense which ranks #26 is even worse on the road as they have averaged only 15.3 PPG and 292 YPG away from home.
The NY Jets’ season has been over for a while as they split their first 2 games then dropped 4 straight averaging 9 PPG of offense in that span. After beating Cleveland and Baltimore the Jets had another 4 game losing streak before beating San Francisco last week.
Miami not only will have a new starting QB making but they have been horrible late in the season when the weather turns as they are 1-12 ATS their last 13 December games. The NY Jets would love to knock the Dolphins out of post-season contention and actually have better numbers on the year with offensive & defensive ranking of #21 & #19 compared to Miami’s #26 & #25. The fans will be boisterous for this night game and it will be J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets.
Cal Sports
Southern Mississippi vs UL Lafayette
Play: Under 58
Both teams finished 6-6 on the season with Southern Miss winning 4 of their first 5 games and then going 2-5 down the stretch while ULL started the year 2-4 and then split their next 4 games and at 4-6 they needed back-to-back wins versus Arkansas St and their in-state rival ULM, which they accomplished.
Southern Miss was a unique team as the they outgained all but one opponent, LSU, yet only went 3-8-1 ATS as they lost the turnover battle in 7 games going 0-6-1 when that occurred. The Golden Eagles played a very weak schedule (my #114) but were +141 YPG with my #84 offense and my #92 defense.
ULL finished the season covering their last 4 games and went 5-1 ATS away from home. The Ragin’ Cajuns played a schedule very similar to Southern Miss’ (my #112) but were actually outgained by 5 YPG and outscored by 1.3 PPG on the year. ULL finished with my #116 ranked offense and #73 ranked defense.
The numbers show us that Southern Miss is the far better team but ULL has been to this bowl and has had a very loud home crowd edge in their 4 wins & covers. Southern Miss also has also struggle turning the ball over as they are -10 on the season. Neither team is explosive in yards/play as ULL ranks #113 and Southern Miss ranks #53. The Ragin Cajuns’ will also look to take time off the clock averaging on 65 plays/game down the stretch.