SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. JETS +115 over Miami
The Jets were blown out on Monday Night Football two weeks ago and we doubt a win over the 49ers last Sunday did anything to redeem them in the eyes of the market. We like the resiliency we saw from the Jets on Sunday. After going down 14-0 before one could make a sandwich, the Jets battled back to win the game 23-17 in overtime. Second year quarterback Bryce Petty was solid by going 23 of 35 for 257 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. An injury to running back Matt Forte forced the Jets to feature Bilal Powell, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Powell is far more versatile than the aging Forte. He is a game breaker and has always been explosive with his limited touches. Powell has been underutilized by the Jets for years but this prime time appearance could be his coming out party. The Jets seemingly have nothing to play for but these prime time games are a big deal for the home team and its fans. New York has a chance to play spoiler here and make life very difficult for the division rival Dolphins and their shot at an AFC Wild Card. The Jets are loose and free-rolling here and we can almost promise you they’ll show up big time.
Miami hung on to beat the Cardinals 26-23 but lost starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a knee injury in the process. The 8-5 Dolphins playoff hopes now rest on a guy who hasn’t started a game since 2011. Enter Matt Moore, a career backup with a 13-12 record as a starter. Moore has been rotting on the bench since Tannehill was drafted in 2012. The last meaningful practice snaps he took this season came in September. Moore has been hanging with the scout team all season. He may have looked okay in relief of Tannehill last Sunday but starting a division game on the road with a playoff contender in prime time is a whole different ball game. Moore is a total stiff and isn’t nearly as mobile at Tannehill. The Dolphins are going to have to remove all of their read-options plays from their game plan. Moore is a pocket passer that’s prone to hang onto the ball while trying to force throws downfield. He fumbled 14 times in the 13 games he started in 2011. It’s unlikely he’s gotten better with little playing time and age. The Dolphins have covered just one of their last 13 games in December and their recent blowout loss in Baltimore was a good reminder that these warm weather teams often struggle on the road late in the season.
This game goes Saturday night in prime time. We want to remind you about the last time the Jets played in prime time. It was a short two weeks ago in New York against the Colts in a game they were steamrolled in, 41-10. The Jets were booed off the field and they were embarrassed to a high degree. Not often does a team get a chance to redeem itself in such short order while taking down a division rival in the process. Jets are unlikely to revisit that nightmare here and figure to be extra jacked up after seeing they’re a dog to Matt Moore, a QB that has been sitting for four years. Wrong side favored.
Dr Bob
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out until the playoffs and the (8-5) Dolphins playoff hopes take a dive with it. Tannehill was having his best statistical season under new HC Adam Gase. He was averaging 6.7 NYPP while completing 67% of his passes. In steps 32-year-old journeyman Matt Moore who has started 25 games in his career as he makes his first start in 5 years. Moore is a 2.0 – 2.5 point drop off from Tanny, as he is not quite the runner or passer Tannehill has been this season. The biggest strength of the Dolphins all season has been the rushing attack and that happens to also be the strength of the Jets defensive unit, who rank 2nd in rushing success rate allowed and #1 in run stuffing plays. While Matt Forte is questionable with a torn meniscus in his knee, backup Bilal Powell has been the more dynamic back all year, averaging 5.8 yards per rush to Forte’s 3.7 YPC. Look for the Jets to run the ball regardless who is behind young Bryce Petty, as the Dolphins have given up 4.8 yards per rush this season. The advanced stats model sees value on the home dog for the Saturday game, so Jets (+2.5) is a Strong Opinion.
Jim Feist
Kansas St at Colorado St
Pick: Under
A good battle between two strong defensive teams having fine campaigns. Kansas State plays tough defense for Bruce Weber. The Under is 45-21-1 in the Wildcats last 67 non-conference games. Defensively, the Wildcats are among the national leaders, ranking 6th in scoring defense (57.8 ), 11th in field goal percentage defense (36.6), 36th in steals (8.4) and 39th in turnovers forced (16.3). Colorado State is 7-3-1 under the total at neutral site games. In the last Meeting K-State won 61-56 in Wichita, Kansas, and this shapes up as an all-out defensive duel.
Scott Rickenbach
NC Central vs. Grambling St
Play: NC Central +15½
Of course Grambling is the better team here but this is the 2nd year of the Celebration Bowl and last season the MEAC team (North Carolina AT & T) got the win over the SWAC team (Alcorn State). The point is that the talent level between these two conferences is not that great and the Eagles certainly come into this game flying high as they have won 9 straight games and have allowed 21 points or less in 7 straight games. The Tigers are also red hot with 11 straight wins but it's going to be hard for Grambling State to cover this big spread if North Carolina Central continues to play solid defense as they have been for months now. Grambling State has won the 3 all-time meetings between these schools but they haven't met since the 80s. I also like the fact that each of these teams beat the defending conference champions to get here. NC Central beat NC AT & T and Grambling beat Alcorn to get here. That bodes well for another tight Celebration Bowl result just like we had last year with North Carolina AT & T and Alcorn State representing. The Tigers deserve to be a solid favorite but the points here are a little two much and I expect the Eagles to stay within single digits throughout this game.
Jimmy Boyd
Appalachian St vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo Pk
I believe this Rockets team is getting overlooked due to all the attention that Western Michigan has got, who is in the same division as Toledo and needed to beat them at home in their final game just to make the MAC Championship Game. Appalachian State on the other hand is a team that most are familiar with due to their impressive showing against Tennessee on the road early in the season in a nationally televised game. I think it has the Mountaineers getting way to much respect in a game that I think they should be at least a 3-point dog.
There's a couple of key things we can point to here that certainly favor Toledo. Appalachian State finished tied with Arkansas State on top the Sun Belt standings at 7-1. The lone loss was at Troy, who Arkansas State crushed 35-3, so there's reason to believe those are two evenly matched teams (didn't play each other). Toledo played Arkansas State and beat them 31-10 on the road, outgaining the Red Wolves 556 to 266. Both teams also played at Akron and won. However, Appalachian State squeaked out a 45-38 win, while the Rockets destroyed the Zips 48-17.
Toledo's offense can beat you with both the run and the pass, which I believe is huge, as a balanced attack is difficult to stop regardless of how much time you have to prepare. When Appalachian State's defense struggled this season, it was against teams who could spread it out and attack them through the air. Toledo QB Logan Woodside finished the regular season completing 69.1% of his attempts with 43 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. They also have a dynamic back in Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 1,355 yards.
Offensively, the Mountaineers are one-dimensional, which I think is much easier to prepare for in bowl games. App St ranked 13th in rushing (247.1 ypg), compared to 104th in passing (184.0 ypg). If they fall behind at all in this game, they could be in serious trouble, as you have to be able to make plays in the passing game to play catch up. I have a lot more confidence in the Rockets offense showing up, making them an easy play at a pick'em.
3G-Sports
Arkansas St vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida -6
The UCF Knights are heading back in the right direction as a program under their new coaching staff this season and there’s a lot of reasons for this group to give a great effort in their bowl game as they try to head into the offseason on a positive note. UCF was able to challenge some of the tougher teams in the AAC in conference play, but the Knights are coming off back to back losses against Tulsa and South Florida to close out the regular season. UCF was able to reach 6-6 overall with most of their better results coming in competitive losses against teams like Temple and Houston. The Knights don’t dominate in any particular facet of the game, but their special team has the ability to make big plays when given the chance. Arkansas State got off to a terrible start this season losing all 4 of their nonconference games back in the month of September. The Red Wolves were able to find their footing in the Sun Belt however as Arkansas State went on to finish the regular season standing 7-5 overall and 7-1 in conference. Arkansas State hasn’t picked up an out of conference win this season and they’ll have a tough time accomplishing that in this matchup. UCF has motivation to head into the offseason on a high note as they try to put a ribbon on the finale of their first season under their new coaching staff and winning a bowl game would be a great start. We like the Knights to get the job done as they go on to win and cover.
Ken Thomson
Loyola, Chicago -7
Illinois-Chicago will plummet without Dikembe Dixson...20ppg...they got away without him vs. dePaul but the Ramblers are a solid squad in the Missouri Valley Conference this season and a double digit win here would be no surprise. Jackson, Doyle & Custer combine for 45 ppg and the Ramblers should take care of business vs. the crosstown Flames!
Illinois -1.5
This looks to be a solid group from Champagne, IL as the Illini have played well in almost all of thier games. Illinois is strong enough to get out quick and should be able to slow down BYU enough to control the Cougars on the way to a solid win!Hill, Black & Abrams are averaging 45ppg between the three of them. Mikha & Emery are a solid duel threat with BYU but will be neutralized in this match-up.
Art Aronson
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -13½
The Warriors have been winning SU lately, but failing to cover against the spread. We think Golden State can blowout the Blazers tonight though. Portland is reeling and has given up at least 118 points in three of its last four outings and its last loss was particularly disturbing, falling 132-120 to Denver on Thursday. The Warriors on the other hand are rolling and already have three 40-assist games this year, which is the most by an club since the Bulls also had three in 1996-97. This is a spot though in which the Blazers have already struggled in mightily for bettors, going just 3-9 ATS when playing the role of underdog and only 6-14 ATS against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. Conversely, this is a position in which the Warriors have excelled, going 6-4 ATS as a home fav of 12.5 points or more and 8-5 ATS after a win by ten points or more. We like Golden State to put the foot on the gas and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. How about you? Can the Blazers keep this one close, or do the Warriors lay the hammer down?
Dave Price
Rockets/Timberwolves Over 221
This one is pretty much as easy as it gets. The OVER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings between the Rockets and Timberwolves. Clearly, defense hasn't been a priority when these teams have gotten together. Six of those 9 games have seen at least 222 combined points. The Rockets rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency. That's not good news for the Timberwolves, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota has been good on the other end, ranking 10th in offensive efficiency. Houston is just 16th in defensive efficiency. The OVER is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 6-0 in Timberwolves last 6 when playing on 3 or more days rest.
Matt Josephs
Cleveland St vs. Ohio
Play: Over 139½
Ohio hosts Cleveland State on Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats have just two losses on the season and are a pretty consistent scoring offense failing to score over 70 just twice. The Vikings shouldn't provide much resistance as they've allowed 77 or more in every true road game this season. They have the potential to match Ohio just a bit offensively or at least provide their part of this over wager. Last year OU won this game 76-67 on the road. I think we'll get a score around this on Saturday.
Rob Vinciletti
UTSA vs. New Mexico
Play: Under 58.5
The line has been dropping since it opened down from 64 to 58 in some spots. However there is a nice totals system that has cashed 19 of 23 to the under that pertain to games with a totals range from 50 to 64 where the favorites are nit laying more than 9 points.. The Lobos have stayed under in 7 of 10 vs Conference USA teams and Texas San Antonio has played under all 6 as a road dog from +7.5 to +10, 3 of 4 vs Mountain West Conference teams and 7 of 8 on the road if the total is 56.5 to 63. In the series both previous matchups have stayed under and that is what we will recommend today.
Brandon Shively
Marshall vs. Akron
Pick: Akron
Akron comes into this game looking to bounce back after losing 61-43 at Gonzaga. Gonzaga is a very good team this year and it was a tough spot for the Zips travelling to the West Coast. Now they are back at home facing a team in Marshall who they beat 75-65 last year on Marshall’s home court. I will note Marshall plays very good on their home court and for Akron to hold them to 65 points is very much worth noting.
Since these two teams renewed their annual rivalry, Akron has won all 4 meetings holding Marshall to 65 points or fewer.
Akron is a team that loves to shoot the three ball. They rank 6th in the nation with 50.8% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arch.
Marshall is one of those ‘good home and bad road’ teams. Dating back to last year, they are 5-14 SU on the road or on a neutral . This year, they are giving up and average of 98 ppg on 45% shooting in 3 road games against Ohio State, Eastern Kentucky, and Tennessee Chatt.
There is a contrast in style of play here also. Akron plays at a slow pace and takes a lot of time off the shot clock. Marshall likes to play the opposite. Akron playing at home will look to dictate the pace and frustrate Marshall.
Since last year on the road and a total of 160 or more points, Marshall is 0-5 SU with losses by 9, 9, 10, 11, and 18 points.
Akron has two 6’10 seniors that will over power and out rebound Marshall. Last year, they combined for 16 rebounds with Isaiah Johnson having 5 offensive boards and they had twice as many offensive rebounds that Marshall had.
Scott Spreitzer
Dayton at Northwestern
Pick: Northwestern
The Wildcats and Dayton Flyers will battle it out at United Center in Chicago tonight. While the number is short, we believe the wrong team was installed as the favorite. Three Wildcats are averaging more than 12 ppg, and while Dererk Pardon is out with a hand injury, Chris Collins' troops do good job of rebounding by committee. Scottie Lindsey and Bryant McIntosh combine for about 28 ppg and both create shots for others, while taking care of the "rock." The two have combined for 88 assists and just 40 turnovers in 10 games and will present a solid Dayton backcourt with defensive issues. Both teams enter on 5-game winning streaks, but we believe Northwestern will leave with the winning streak intact, while extending their spread run to 7-1.
SPORTS WAGERS
UTSA +8 over New Mexico
After tracking this one, we finally have the Roadrunners in a spot we like them in and in a position we have backed them and found success previously this year. UTSA has been a solid play when no one is paying attention and that appears to be the case here. Look no further than their cover against the spread at Texas A&M and Arizona State and their outright victories against Southern Mississippi and Middle Tennessee State where the Roadrunners were cast as nothing more than a glorified Tweedy. Sure, zealots of the Lobos will cite that New Mexico finished strong with eight wins, culminating with a thrashing of Wyoming. Additionally, the fact that this bowl game is in their own backyard (New Mexico Bowl) typically would provide a strategic edge in the department of intangibles. However, in this distinct contest, that may work against the Lobos because this is their fourth consecutive appearance in the same bowl game on their own field. Normally, teams revel at the chance but you have to wonder if this team is getting bored with playing in the same bowl game, every time they qualify for a bowl. The Lobos are 1-2 in New Mexico Bowls and last year they were beat by Arizona on this very field. Now you got New Mexico once again in this same venue against a less reputable opponent.
When it is considered that New Mexico's defense is giving up 32 points a game, you have to like the Roadrunners chances of keeping this one within range, as we have seen first-hand how that has worked out for UTSA against defenses of this nature previously (Arizona State and Middle Tennessee State). Sure, New Mexico may be the curators of the number one rushing attack in America and it may very well be out in full effect here but it all comes back to the mindset of New Mexico. How the Lobos are entering this bowl game is key. Whether this contest is construed as stale and against a lesser quality opponent on paper compared to year’s past will determine how New Mexico approaches this contest. You are going to read all about the Lobos running game and how it is supposed to go off here. That may be but we’re not interested in spotting more than a converted TD to a team that comes in with a chip on their shoulder and has been told they don’t belong. UTSA will come in with a strong will and a very good game plan.
Note: We're up in the air on this one and will not make it an official bet until tomorrow when we see where the money goes. Righ now, we're leaning UTSA but it's not an official bet.
San Diego State +4½ over Houston
The Cougars have this year’s Heisman winner in QB Greg Ward Jr so right off the bat you would be paying a premium to back them here. We keep writing about mindset because it's such an important and profitable concept in the expanded playoff era. Conference titles are devalued everywhere, while mainstream media and casual fans have little interest in the national scene beyond the identities of championship contenders. Notre Dame faces the biggest challenge getting off the mat when the expectation bubble pops because the Irish have no league race to run. But even those who have a conference home sometimes catch playoff fever and lose sight of that as well. Remember Oregon's DeAnthony Thomas's mid-2013 open admission that the team didn't care about the Rose Bowl, and that it was national championship or bust? No real surprise, then, when the second loss immediately followed the first.
Well, Houston had its sight set on a New Year’s Eve Bowl but now have to settle for this disappointment. Will the Cooogs go in the tank now? Maybe yes and if so, the Aztecs are not a bad hammer to have here. San Diego has one of the best running games in the country and certainly sees the Cougars as a beatable peer, even if a rightful favorite. We were watching the Cougars closely in their final game of the year against Memphis for signs that motivation just wasn’t there. Well, the Cougars showed up in spurts but still lost 48-44 to a six-point dog. It’s also worth noting that the Cougars had no answers for Navy’s strong running game back in Week 6, when the Middies racked up 306 yards on the ground on 63 carries. San Diego State’s running game is just as good and now the Cougars have to go into this game without their coach, Tom Herman, who left for Texas. Houston did not accomplish their mission this year and the remnants of that are very likely to be spilled all over the Las Vegas Strip.
Appalachian State -1 over Toledo
Given the potency of both offenses in this contest, some may gaze at the Camellia Bowl as a stage for a high-flying, high-scoring shootout between the methodical air raid attack of the Rockets and the punishing rushing attack of the Mountaineers. However, the true storyline of this one is the absurdly stingy defense of App State, which allows just 17 points per game, ranking no lower than 30th nationally in all four major defensive categories. The numbers in terms of scoring defense in terms of App State is bookended by giving up 45 points to Miami in a rout and 38 points in a hard-fought win at Akron.
Appalachian State and Toledo have never met before. The Rockets are coming in off a 20-point loss to a very good Western Michigan team and that’s the price you pay for scheduling out-of-conference games against weak competition. The Rockets first three games occurred against Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State. They went 3-0 in those games before facing BYU in their fourth game of the year in which they lost and surrendered 55 points in the process. Incidentally, the Rockets also surrendered 55 points in their loss to Western Michigan. The Rockets ended up 9-3 on the year but it’s not a very impressive 9-3 when you consider the points they gave up and the opponents they beat.
By contrast, the Mountaineers scheduled two of their first three games against Power Five opponents. The Mountaineers’ first defeat came on the road at Rocky Top where had it not been for misfortune, they could have easily defeated a highly-touted then #9 ranked Volunteers squad at Tennessee on opening night. The Mountaineers lost in OT, 20-13. Two weeks later, the odd makers had such high regard for App State that they made them just a 4½-point dog on the road at then #25 Miami. App’s State only other loss occurred against Troy, also on the road. At the point of the Troy defeat, Troy was flirting with a top-25 ranking and was leading the race for the Sun Belt Conference championship by a country mile before the Trojans would ultimately implode down the backstretch. Even so, Troy finished with a not too shabby record of 9-3.
The point we are trying to stress here is that Toledo is focused on being a good mid-major club while Appalachian State has ideas of being a national power like Boise State that operates on a mid-major basis until they get a call to join an elite conference. This philosophy and approach will be the difference maker in how these two ball clubs approach this bowl. For App State, this will be an opportunity for them to flex their muscles at the mid-majors and proclaim their presence on the national landscape. The Mountaineers defense held Tennessee to 13 points in regulation and held a bunch of other teams to 10 or less while the Rockets surrendered 55 not once but twice and the first time was to a middle-of-the road BYU offense. This game is priced evenly but we trust we’re getting the superior team that figures to be much better prepped to thrive.
UCF -5½ over Arkansas State
Arkansas State and Central Florida both made major turnarounds to arrive here. UCF went 0-12 in 2015 but won six of its first 10 games this season under first-year coach Scott Frost before losing to Tulsa and South Florida. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves began the season 0-4, including a 51-14 loss to Auburn before winning seven of their last eight to gain a share of their fifth Sun Belt Conference title in six years.
The teams are led by their defenses, which both rank in the top 50 in yards allowed per game and are among the top 15 in sacks. The Knights allowed a total of nine points to American Athletic Conference rivals Tulane and Cincinnati in the first two games of November. UCF is led by freshman signal-caller McKenzie Milton. Milton, who played in nine of the last 10 games after taking over for senior Justin Holman, is averaging almost 201 yards through the air with nine touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
Arkansas State has allowed an average of 13.7 points over its last seven contests while defensive ends Chris Odom and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones have combined for 24 sacks. Arkansas State starts a sophomore quarterback in Justice Hansen. Hansen did not open the season as the starter but has thrown for 2,514 yards with 16 TDs and eight interceptions - 10 and two, respectively, in the last six games. Hansen has a variety of weapons at his disposal as well, as five receivers have accumulated 300 yards. Running back Warren Wand has recorded 867 yards and seven scores on the ground for the Red Wolves, who are 2-4 in bowl games as they prepare for their sixth in a row.
All those stats are very nice but what those numbers don’t take into consideration are strength of schedule and in that regard, give a huge edge to the Knights. While the Red Wolves were putting up strong (skewed) defensive numbers, they were doing it against teams like Georgia State (3-9), Louisiana Monroe (4-8), Georgia Southern (5-7), who they beat by a point, 28-27, New Mexico State (3-9) and Texas State (2-10). Meanwhile, UCF played Michigan, Maryland, East Carolina, Temple, UConn, Houston, Tulane, Cincinnati, USF and Tulsa. They lost to Temple by one point and they lost to the Cougars by just seven. The Knights also figure to be extremely jacked up under first year HC Scott Frost and after a 0-12 season a year ago. It doesn’t hurt to have a partisan crowd either. The Knights will now reap the benefits of playing some really good football against some really good teams while the Red Wolves have proven absolutely nothing. Lay the points.
UL Lafayette +6½ over Southern Miss
For the two teams entering this affair, the New Orleans Bowl bears two different connotations. For the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana Lafayette this is an opportunity to finish their season on a winning note at 7-6 after they missed a bowl game last year by going 4-8. In 2015, the Ragin Cajuns qualified for the New Orleans Bowl and they took care of business, defeating Nevada by a score of 16-3 on this very field. For Lafayette, this is almost a home game for them, be that this one is played in their home state and is just two hours from New Orleans on the I-10.
For Southern Mississippi, the 2016-17 campaign is likely be they hope to forget. The Golden Eagles didn’t even finish with a Bronze medal for the Conference-USA accolades they were vying for as a popular pre-season favorite to hoist the conference hardware. USM finished with nine wins last year and featured one of the best passing offenses in all of America. Unfortunately for the Golden Eagles, the opposition derived ways to mitigate what worked best for the Golden Eagles this year and as a result, USM stands at just .500 on the season. When looking at this contest, Southern Miss undoubtedly had their eyes set on a bigger bowl game. Thus, the morale and the overall motivation of this team has to come in to question here. If USM enters flat-footed, it may be a long day in the City of Soul.
Lafayette features perhaps one of the most underrated and unrecognized running backs in all of college football in Elijah McGuire. While the numbers for McGuire may not be eye-candy, this is a back that has gone over 1,000 yards rushing in three consecutive seasons. It is worth highlighting that if UTSA can explode on the Golden Eagles for 339 rushing yards, we can only imagine what McGuire can do if Southern Miss enters this game in similar form. McGuire has an above-average blend of vision, foot speed and determination, which does not bode well for the opposition. Chances are McGuire may be flirting with career bests in terms of rushing yards in a season if that is the case and if he gets loose, Southern Miss wouldn’t have a lot of opportunities to play tit-for-tat even if they have a traditionally vaunted passing attack. We’ll trust the Cajuns to run the ball effectively, limit the Eagles possessions and come in under the number or even win it outright.
Matt Fargo
Marshall vs. Akron
Play: Akron -7½
After opening at -8.5, this line has dropped by a full point as of Saturday morning which is giving some additional value to the Zips. Akron looks to bounce back from its third loss of the season as it fell to 10-0 Gonzaga by 18 points a week ago but that was on the road and the home/road splits are pretty significant on both sides. The Zips opened the season with a bad loss at Youngstown St. while the other loss on the highway came at 10-0 Creighton. Akron is the class of the MAC and are in solid rebound mode on Saturday. Marshall also has not played since last Saturday as it defeated Toledo in overtime to improve to 6-3. The venue has played a big role for the Thundering Herd as well as not counting neutral court games, the host is a perfect 17-0 in Akron and Marshall games this season. Going back, the Zips have won 22 consecutive home games while winning five straight at home in this series. Going back, the Thundering Herd are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points while the Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.