Larry Ness
Houston vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The Minnesota Timberwolves recovered from a 21-point deficit against the Bulls on Tuesday, coming away with a 99-94 victory. It represented the largest comeback in the NBA this season and now the T-wolves look to win back-to-back games for the first time this season when they play at home Saturday night. However, standing in their way are the Houston Rockets, the NBA’s hottest team with NINE straight wins!
The Rockets are the NBA’s second-highest scoring team at 113.1 PPG and reminded everyone of just that in their 122-100 home win over the Pelicans last night. Houston made 24 three-pointers in Friday's win against the Pelicans, which broke a single;e-game NBA record shared by the 2013 Rockets and the 2009 Orlando Magic. They shot 61 three-pointer attempts and broke another single-game record. Harden (27.7-8.0-11.8 ) is having a career season and while four others join him in double figures, most point to the return of Harden’s backcourt partner, Patrick Beverley, as the key to Houston’s surge in the standings. Beverley (8.4-5.7-4.8 ) missed the team's first 11 games but since he’s returned on Nov 17, Houston has gone 14-2!
"We came in today and had a different swagger about us," Minnesota center Karl-Anthony Towns told the Minneapolis Star Tribune a day after the Timberwolves 99-94 comeback win in Chicago. "A different swagger that we have never had; an arrogance in a way that great teams have." Towns is averaging 21.4-10.8 and along with Wiggins (22.2) and LaVine (20.5), gives the T-wolves three hugely talented young players. However, Minnesota remains a team that hasn't won two games in a row all season.
This is the spot for Minnesota. The T-wolves haven’t played since Tuesday, while the Rockets played Wednesday and then again last night, setting those three-point records. If not now for Minnesota, when? Take the home dog.
David Banks
Dolphins @ Jets
Pick: Under 38
The Miami Dolphins are still very much alive in the AFC wild card race. The problem for head coach Adam Gase and his team is that they will likely have to play the remainder of the season without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins starter threw three touchdowns in last week’s win over Arizona before taking a hit to the left knee from Cardinals DT Calais Campbell. Tannehill’s status is unknown at this point, but if he can’t go backup Matt Moore will start in his place.
Moore, whose record as an NFL starter is 13-12, would have the opportunity to pick up a win over the Jets, who are just a shade better than awful this season. New York won for the first time in five games when they beat San Francisco last week. The 49ers are a dismal 1-11 and two of the Jets other victories are over Cleveland (0-13) and Buffalo (6-7).
The Jets turned the reins of the offense over to Bryce Petty who helped engineer a comeback in the win over the 49ers last week. Running back Bilal Powell rushed for 145 yards and two touchdowns, including the 19-yard game-winner in overtime, against San Francisco. If the Jets can have some success running the football, it will take some pressure off of Petty. The big question is whether the Jets can stop the Dolphins offense. With Moore at the helm, the Dolphins may be easier to defend. Don’t forget that Miami does have RB Jay Ajayi, the NFL’s seventh-leading rusher (908 yards). Ajayi has two 200-yard rushing games this season. While they aren’t good at much, the Jets are fourth in the NFL against the run.
Harry Bondi
ARKANSAS STATE +6 over Central Florida
In the Cure Bowl, it’s a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions so we’ll gladly take the touchdown head start with an Arkansas State squad that’s playing much better football and has more bowl experience, even though it’s a home game for UCF. The Red Wolves started the season 0-4, but two of those losses were to Toledo and Auburn, and then they ripped off seven wins in their last eight games, taking a share of the Sun Belt Conference. This will be the program’s sixth straight trip to a bowl game and Sun Belt dogs in the bowls are 10-4 ATS since 2005. UCF, meanwhile, is going bowling for the first time under rookie head coach Scott Frost after going 0-12 last season. The team has lost its last two games as the defense has staggered to the finish line allowing 83 points in those two losses and overall the Knights have been outgained in eight straight games.
Jeffrey James
San Diego State +3.5
Houston is in a tough spot here since they have lost their head coach to a better job and they face a very solid Aztecs defense here with extra prep time. Houston can score but their defense has not been strong this season. The Cougars only have 4 covers all season long and one 1 of those has come after September.
The Real Animal
San Diego State +4½
How in the world does the Houston line go up on Friday? I think it’s ludicrous to find this team -4 earlier in the day and now it’s -4½. In their last two away games the Cougars allowed 48 points at Memphis and 38 points at SMU losing both. I think everybody is remember the win over Louisville but forgetting the fact that the Cougars were 1-6 ATS in their last seven and are limping into this bowl. Sure San Diego State was 0-3 ATS in their last three and lost outright twice. But losing at Colorado State is not an embarrassment and they are coming off a win at Wyoming where they avenged an earlier one-point defeat to the Cowboys. Plus San Diego State, while being 0-3 ATS in their last three, were FAVORED by seven points or more in all of them. Now the Aztecs go to a 4½-point underdog? Donnel Pumphrey might be the best running back in the country and ran for over 2,000-yards. But #2 man, Rashaad Penny, looked lethal versus Wyoming in the last game (117 yards on 16 carries) and more importantly, Pumphrey has had time to recover from nagging injuries and should be fresh after not playing since December 3. I’m not very high on SD State QB Christian Chapman and it’s certainly possible he could struggle against Houston’s pass rush, but he can do some damage with a 19-6 ratio this year. I just wonder if the Cougars are going to have the same intensity as last year when they beat Florida State 38-24 in the Peach Bowl and especially considering Coach Herman has left the program. Sure the new coach was on the staff (Major Applewhite) but it’s not the same. I’m concerned about Houston being #3 in the country in rushing defense. Plus SD State allowed over 600-yards to Cal, another spread team. I’m tempted by this ‘OVER’ because Ward is capable of creating problems for the Aztecs defensively. The total opened at 60 at Cris but only for a short time and dipped to 51½. I’ll pass on the total for now and go w/ 3* San Diego State +4½. The Aztecs led the nation with 22 pass interceptions and MWC underdogs are 9-2 in bowls if their opponent is off a loss. San Diego State started this year covering nine of their first 10 games. Plus last year they rolled past Cincinnati 42-7 in the bowl game under veteran Coach Rocky Long.
Bob Balfe
Dolphins -2.5
Both teams are on backup quarterbacks heading into this game. Miami was in a similar spot last year needing to win just one game to make the playoffs and they choked. The Jets won last week, but this team looks like they have given up. Why tack on a few more wins now to ruin draft stock? New York is so banged up at the skilled position that Powell is really the only healthy guy that they have going today on the entire offense and Bryce Petty might have done well against that weak 49ers Defense, but not so much today against this Dolphins front four. Miami has more skill on the offensive side of the ball which should make the difference. Remember that this is a playoff game for the Dolphins. The Jets seemed to have checked out a few weeks ago and I can’t see this banged up team getting motivated to play in cold damp weather like this.
Ohio State/UCLA Over 159
UCLA has looked like a true NBA team this year with their offense. This team has come a long way in the past few seasons and are ready to get back to a Final Four run. Ohio State is going to be more challenging for the Bruins today because they have great basketball players who can’t be guarded as easy as some of the cupcake teams on the earlier schedule. Once Ohio State can learn not to turn the ball over so much they will have a legit shot an upset in this spot. I think both teams score a ton of points today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +214 over MINNESOTA
OT included. Note the 2:00 PM EST start. The Wild are on cruise control. Here’s a team that has won six in a row, is second in the Central Division with 38 points and that has won 10 of 13 games at home. Now on a Saturday afternoon, a week before Christmas Eve, while on cruise control and just after defeating Nashville 5-2, the Wild will be jacked up for this game because why? Minnesota may show up in body only here and they’ll also turn to backup goaltender Darcy Kuemper, which is also significant because they’re winning games because of Devan Dubnyk and not because they’re playing well. In Nashville on Thursday, Minnesota was badly outshot, 36-19 but scored five times (two empty netters). They defeated Florida the game before that and amassed a mere 22 shots on net while allowing 31. In Toronto, the Wild looked like they were killing a 40-minute penalty when they were out-chanced and outshot by the Maple Leafs by some sick numbers. The Wild are not dominating anyone but they get dominated and badly outplayed often but once again, the market’s emphasis is results over performances.
The Coyotes are very much like the Maple Leafs in that they’re loaded with young talent and it’s going to take some time. We’re seeing regression from last year’s pesky club but that regression is only in the results and not in the performance. That said, the Coyotes are feeling much better about things after consecutive wins in Detroit and Toronto. They have also won three of four with the other victory occurring against Nashville, 4-1. The ‘Yotes are still allowing too many scoring chances and shots on goal but that figures to improve greatly under Dave Tippett’s guidance and with the amount of young talent they have back there on their blueline. It’s also worth noting that Arizona is 4-7 against top-10 teams and 8-10 against top-16 teams so it’s not like they haven’t been competitive against the better clubs in the NHL. Lastly, Mike Smith in net gives the Coyotes a chance to win almost every night. Dude is seeing the puck like it’s a beach ball and at this price with those intangibles in play, Arizona is absolutely worth a close look today. Great value here.
TORONTO +100 over Pittsburgh
OT included. There are a number of things working against the Penguins here but we’ll start off with the most important of them all, which is the betting line. We have mentioned in a number of our podcasts to always pay attention to what Pinnacle is doing. In that regard, Pinnacle has had the Penguins favored less than a dime all morning while most other joints have the Pens at -125 or thereabouts. That’s significant, as this is a marquee matchup that the entire country of Canada (besides Quebec) will be watching with great interest. In other words, Pinnacle, the sharpest book in the world, is welcoming all the Penguin money they can get their hands on and to us, that’s reason enough to play the Maple Leafs when the Penguins have so much more appeal.
You see, Toronto is coming off a loss to Arizona. That doesn’t increase their stock and neither does six losses in their last seven games. However, we’re not paying any attention to those defeats, as the Maple leafs continue to dominate the opposition with regularity but the hard work just isn’t paying off. The Leafs outshot Arizona, 46-30 and lost. They outshot Colorado, 52-29 and lost. They outshot Minnesota 37-20 and lost. They outshot Vancouver 40-24 and lost. Toronto is creating more high quality scoring chances than any team in the NHL but their record and recent results mask just how good they have been. The results influence in the market and most are going to see this game as an easy target but it’s not. Toronto will likely face Marc Andre Fleury here, which also works in their favor. Still, the main reason for this wager is because the sharpest book in the business has spoken and we’re listening. You should too.
Chicago +128 over ST. LOUIS
OT included. The Blackhawks are at full strength, meaning they have zero skaters on the rack. Fully healthy, the Blackhawks are as dangerous as anyone and they’re warming up too. Chicago has won three straight over Dallas, the Rangers and the Islanders. They held both the Stars and Rangers to one goal before winning a wild one in Brooklyn on Thursday, 5-4. Scott Darling did not have his best game on Thursday but let’s just call it an off night because he’s been outstanding since Corey Crawford was put on injured reserve. What’s more important is that the Blackhawks found a way to win. Prior to defeating the Isles, Chicago had allowed two goals or less in five straight. The Blackhawks also rank higher than the Blues in scoring chances for and that’s with key players missing significant time.
Scott Darling comes in with a rock solid .928 save percentage while Blues’ goaltender, Jake Allen’s is at .907. There are 30 teams in the NHL and Jake Allen’s save percentage ranks 43rd and puts him ahead of only two other regular starters. What’s more interesting than that, however, is that St. Louis has gone 14 games at home without a regulation loss (14-0-3) and with weak goaltending that simply cannot last much longer. At some point, teams are going to get up two or three goals on the Blues and there will be no coming back from it. The Blues are just 3-4 over their past seven games. They recently had a 3-0 lead in Nashville and lost 6-3. They were just down 2-0 to the Devils in their last game but rallied to win 5-2. In their last home game before the Devils against the Habs, they were also down 2-0 in the third but rallied to win 3-2. The Blues are playing with fire, they have unreliable goaltending and they’re going to get burned because of it. This could be that day.
Brett Atkins
Blowout City in New Jersey on Saturday when the Delaware Blue Hens play at Seton Hall.
Last year's Big East Tournament Champions have been flying under the radar, as Kevin Willard's team enters play today at 8-2 straight up. That includes a 4-game winning streak that has seen them beat back some pretty good teams in Columbia, Hawaii and Cal in Hawaii, and previously undefeated South Carolina at Madison Square Garden.
Delaware is 5-4 on the season, but wins over Delaware State, Bryn Athyn, and Goldey-Beacom College is hardly "Murderer's Row", now is it?
The Pirates have plenty of talent back from last year's team, 4 starters in fact, and this one should take too long for the Hall to stretch things out and cover this big number.
Like I said, Blowout City -- Seton Hall names it!
5* SETON HALL
Brad Wilton
This line may be a little inflated considering that New Mexico gets to play this bowl contest on their home field at University Stadium, but I will lay it anyway with the Lobos who closed with wins in 6 of their last 7 games, and covers in 5 of those 7 games to end the regular season at 8-4.
The Lobos appeared in this bowl game last season, and while they did lose a 45-37 decision to Pac 12 rep Arizona, they also covered as the +9 point dog. This time around they face a Texas San Antonio team they did beat 21-9 as the +17 point underdog in San Antone back in October of 2014.
The Road Runners slipped into the bowl picture with a 6-6 straight up mark, but went just 2-4 on the road this year. UTSA did go 5-2 against the spread when listed as the underdog, and that fact cannot be ignored, but the fact Bob Davie has the Lobos program back on track with back-to-back bowl bids, and the fact the New Mexico offense definitely is the stronger of the offensive units on the field this afternoon leads me to believe the Wolves can eventually put some distance between themselves and the Roadrunners.
I will lay it with New Mexico this Saturday afternoon, as the Lobos get the bowl win that eluded them last December on this field.
2* NEW MEXICO
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 19-8 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner is on the game I'll be watching in person, the 25th Las Vegas Bowl, with San Diego State and Houston doing battle at Sam Boyd Stadium.
The last football game played there was the state high school championship, and the nation's No. 1 program - Bishop Gorman - put an 84-spot up. Now I don't think Houston will duplicate the feat, but with as explosive as that offense can be, and as stingy as the Cougars are on defense, it will be a similar style blowout against the over-rated Aztecs from the Mountain West Conference.
Let's start with the defense, because that's where it begins for the Cougars, who have the 14th-ranked stop unit in the nation, allowing just 325 yards per game. And their job is plain and simple: stop Donnell Pumphrey.
Houston is going to do whatever it takes to turn the Aztecs into a one-dimensional team, by shutting down the nation's best running back. Pumphrey, who is 108 yards away from becoming the all-time leading rusher in D-I history, is the engine that makes San Diego State go. So if the Cougars can stifle him, the rest is easy. And because they have the third-best rushing defense in the nation, I think the Aztecs are going to have a tough time moving the ball.
Houston, which is 9-3, has allowed no more than 18 points in half those games. The Cougars' scoring defense is tied for 27th, allowing 22.6 points per game. Their offense, which is 34th in the country overall and 20th in scoring, is putting up 38 points per game. Houston has hit the 40-mark six times this season.
I know San Diego State coach Rocky Long is a good coach, and he can prepare teams, but I don't think he has the right personnel to challenge the Cougars today.
Lay the points here, as Houston rolls.
1* HOUSTON
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Over in the Las Vegas Bowl, between Houston and San Diego State, as we're going to see both teams open it up with their vertical games and get over the posted 54.5.
The San Diego State Aztecs and Houston Cougars made their rounds all week, doing the Bowl thing, touring Las Vegas and making appearances. They've played nice with one another long enough, and now it's time to put their offensive skills to work.
While I know Houston has one of the best defensive units in the nation, the Aztecs have the best running back in Donnell Pumphrey. And with 108 yards, he'll be the all-time rushing leader in college football. More importantly, he'll be helping the Aztecs to open the offense up and get their passing game going when the Cougars collapse and stack the line.
Houston, on the other hand, will be firing all over the place with a stellar aerial attack that will force the game into uptempo mode immediately. It's been cold and windy in Las Vegas the past 24 hours, but by game time the football weather should be in effect and the ball should sail through the air just fine.
It may take some time for the Aztecs to respond in this one, but they will be able to play catch up behind Pumphrey's legs.
I expect this one to get closer to 60.
3* Houston/San Diego State Over
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is the Arkansas State Red Wolves over Central Florida Golden Knights, as I think the dog has a real shot at winning this game outright.
There might not be a more impressive mid-major coming into the postseason as the Red Wolves, who overcame an 0-4 start in September to win seven of their last eight games and earn a share of the Sun Belt Conference championship.
Now Arkansas State can cap its season with a victory in the school's sixth consecutive bowl appearance against a Central Florida team that finished 6-6. The only reason I can see Central Florida as the favorite is because this game is in Orlando.
But I'm not budging, as the Wolves are playing far too good to lose this one by more than a field goal - if they lose at all. They have just four turnovers in their last seven contests after committing 12 in their first five. Perspective: those four turnovers since October 15 are tied with four other teams for second-fewest in the FBS, behind Colorado State, which has three.
Ark State boasts junior defensive end Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, the Sun Belt Conference's Player of the Year, who tied for the Sun Belt lead in tackles for a loss with 18 1/2 while also serving up 11 1/2 sacks. He's already emerged as the program's career leader in tackles for loss with 28 1/2.
This is one of those games where a defensive player could win MVP, as Rolland-Jones is the real deal.
Take the underdog as my free winner and enjoy.
5* ARKANSAS STATE
Brad Wilton
It's the Camellia Bowl from Montgomery, Alabama, and it's a pair of 9-3 teams doing battle in a game that the oddsmakers have priced near a pick.
My money is on Appalachian State, as go bowling for the second year in a row against a MAC team, and look for their second win in a row over the Mid American Conference. Last season the Mountaineers beat Ohio by 2 points, but failed to cover as the TD favorite. This time around the line is not as rich, but the opponent is pretty tough, as Toledo is making their 6th bowl showing in the past 7 years, and they have won and covered in each of their last pair of bowl games.
This is the same bowl game that Appy played in last season, and to me their defense is the difference-maker in this game. I have to believe the Rockets may still have a little lingering depression from their final regular season loss to Western Michigan that prevented them from winning the MAC East crown. In that game, the Rockets got torched for 55 big points.
It's hard to knock the season Toledo has had under first year coach Jason Candle, but I had the opportunity to see the Mountaineers play a few times this season, and I think that defense of theirs will make the stops needed to propel them to the win for the second year in a row in this bowl game.
Play Appalachian State.
3* APPALACHIAN STATE
Ray Monohan
Blazers vs. Warriors
Play: Blazers +13½
The Trail Blazers take on the Warriors Saturday night and the visitors plus the points have some value. Portland has shown they have plenty of scoring abilities, which makes them very dangerous here.
The Trail Blazers have performances of 111 points, two 120 point games, and a 114 point game mixed in there over their last 4.
This is kind of a lull stage for the Warriors too. Golden State has won 3 straight, but they're not blowing teams out. This is one of those teams in Portland where you simply cannot let them hang around.
Some trends to note. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
Expect the Trail Blazers to keep pace here in this one, as they have plenty of offensive firepower.
Brandon Lee
Pacers vs. Pistons
Play: Pacers +4
The Pistons were just destroyed last night 108-122 at Washington and now have to turn around and play on no rest against a hungry Pacers team that is looking to avoid a 3rd straight loss. We have already seen this line drop almost 3 points since it opened at -6.5, despite the betting public being all over Detroit. That's a great sign the sharp money is on Indiana and I completely agree. Paul George had a lot of success against this Detroit team last year, scoring 22.8 ppg in their 4-game series and the Pacers went 3-1. Indiana is without Monta Ellis, but I actually think it's not a bad thing, as it's allowed the Pacers to put out a better defensive team. Pacers are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 road games off a SU loss and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 against division opponents.