SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +6½ over GREEN BAY
Green Bay is rolling after four straight wins over the Eagles, Texans, Seahawks and Bears. The Packers look like the “lead pipe lock” against these Vikings in Week 16 but rarely is it that easy. We also can't forget how the Packers almost blew it last week in their three-point win over the Bears. The Packers have had problems on their offensive line for years. Protecting Rodgers was an issue again last Sunday, as he was sacked four times. The Packers stock is sky high, which is very simply not the right time to step in. Green Bay’s win over Seattle is its most impressive of the year but perhaps lost in that is its many other stumbles. The Packers are being hyped as the team “nobody wants to play” in the playoffs but they haven't secured a spot yet.
Minnesota appears to be in a full freefall after getting blown out 34-6 at home by the Colts last week. After losing seven of their last nine, this looks like rock bottom for a team that started the season 5-0. It's not all bad, as the Vikings pass defense ranks third in the league and despite their poor showing last week, they've been very solid all season. Minnesota has traveled well all year by allowing just 17.8 points per game in seven road contests. In their last two road games, the Vikings have given up just two total touchdowns. According to predictionmachine.com, the Vikes have an 11.8% chance to make the playoffs and although it's not much, it means they are mathematically alive but let’s put aside all that. You see, this is a divisional game between two bitter rivals that rarely ends with one team winning big. More importantly, Green Bay’s stock is high while the Vikes stock has hit rock bottom after their 28-point home loss last week. Teams’ usually respond after blowouts and while the Packers have rallied a bit, this is still a fragile team that is not having a football renaissance with a fairy tale ending. Don’t allow two weeks of football by Green Bay to overshadow just how mediocre they have been the other 14 weeks and in the process. be weary about spotting significant points to this bitter enemy.
BUFFALO -4 over Miami
The Dolphins are coming off a huge 34-13 prime time win over the Jets last Saturday night. Miami can clinch a Wild Card spot with a win at Buffalo in Week 16 combined with a Denver loss. Matt Moore will make his second start at quarterback this year after an impressive first one last week. We stand by everything we said last week about Moore being a total stiff. His stat line last week was a result of two long TD passes and four Jets turnovers. In reality, the Dolphins coaching staff only let him throw 18 times. Moore could be in for a rude awakening this week against a Bills squad that has a little more to play for. The last time these two teams played it was back in October in sunny Miami but this time it will be close to freezing in Orchard Park. A second straight game on the road in a frosty climate does the Dolphins no favors. Just three weeks ago they were dominated 38-6 in Baltimore and Miami hasn't won in Buffalo since 2011.
If you listen to the media, Rex Ryan is on the hot seat. If you ask Ryan, he says everything is fine. If you ask the players, they have their head coaches' back. Running back LeSean McCoy, offensive lineman Richie Incognito and members of the defense spoke out in favor of Ryan this week. The Bills are 7-7 after rolling the Browns last week but they still have a shot at the post season. Ryan might be a blowhard but traditionally his players love to go to battle with him. All of the heat this week has been on the coach, leaving the players free to prepare for this important home game. If defending their coach adds to their motivation, we'll take it. Buffalo is one of the most hostile places to play in the league, especially when it’s cold and snowing or just cold.
There's plenty of negative press coming out of Buffalo this week but it's important to ignore all off that nonsense when making your picks. When talking about the Dolphins, the pundits says it's a “must win” because they have a chance to clinch a playoff spot. The “must win” angle was used to back the Giants on Thursday along with numerous others over the years and it’s a horrible angle to use. It's nothing more than a talking point that seldom works out. We faded the Dolphins last week in New York and got buried in that game. The propensity for most is to back off after a game like that but we’re sticking with it. The Dolphins last four wins came against the Rams, San Fran, Arizona and the Jets. Other than beating Pittsburgh in Week 6, the Fish have not only lost to every playoff team they played, they got steamrolled by 15, 13 and 32 points in three of them. Miami’s cold weather history and lack of being challenged by anyone other than Baltimore the last five weeks makes them extremely vulnerable here while the Bills come in with a “Win one for the Gipper” attitude. The “Gipper” in this case is Rex Ryan, a player’s coach to be sure.
NEW ORLEANS -3½ over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games with their only loss over that stretch coming at the 12-2 Cowboys last Sunday night. While they were able to cover the 6½-point spread, the Bucs probably should have been run off the field after turning it over four times. The Cowboys turned TD’s into FG’s with bad penalties at the wrong time. Despite their recent success, the Bucs offense has been suspect. They've managed to score more than 20 points just once during their five-game winning streak and that was against a Chargers pass defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league. Just two weeks ago in Tampa, the Bucs picked off Saints quarterback Drew Brees three times but could still only muster up 16 points in a win. Opposing offenses have picked on the Saints all season but Winston managed just 184 yards on 16 of 26 completions with no touchdowns.
The Saints remain alive in the playoff hunt at 6-8 and while their chances aren't great, they should have some extra motivation for this one. New Orleans is a tale of two teams. They typically struggle outdoors on the road but they put up big offensive numbers at home in the dome. The Saints are always capable of putting up big points, as they showed in last week's 48-41 win at Arizona. The Cards' defense ranked fourth in the league before the Saints came to town last week. The Saints also put up over 40 points on a Rams unit that ranked 11th. The Saints' ability to score and extend drives allows their defense time to rest. One can have great success backing Sean Peyton and the Saints in the right spots against defenses that are bound to wear down when facing his unique offense. Tampa Bay does not offer the same opportunity because they simply don’t score enough. We've been scouring the schedule for victims of the Saints and found one last week in the Cardinals and absolutely trust we found another one this week in the Bucs.
CAROLINA +145 over Atlanta
Thanks to inferior competition, the banged up Falcons haven't missed a beat without star wide receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta has put up more than 40 points the last two weeks in wins over the Rams and 49ers but we’re not impressed. Prior to their back-to-back games against the two worst teams in the NFC, the Falcons appeared to be stuck in their traditional second half freefall. They lost on the road in Philly, lost at home to the Chiefs and blew back-to-back games against the Chargers and Seahawks after a 4-1 start to the season. The Falcons need this game to remain in front of the Buccaneers and in the hunt for a possible #2 Seed.
Carolina reveled in the role of the spoiler Monday night. The Cats took down the Redskins 26-15 in a game that wasn't really that close and while we are not in the habit of playing a team that looked so good in prime time the previous week, there are exceptions to every rule and this is one of those times. The Panthers were plenty motivated last week and will be even more so this week with a chance to make life miserable for a division rival. The Panthers already lost to Atlanta earlier in the year but that was in Atlanta and the Panthers still put up 33 points. That was at a time when Carolina was going bad but they’re peaking now with back-to-back very impressive wins over San Diego and Washington while holding that pair to a mere 16 and 15 points respectively.
Big wins over weak teams is exactly that but those skewed numbers stick out to influence the line in a big way. Needing to win also has influence on the number. Don’t make the mistake of backing skewed numbers. Atlanta is not coming close to putting up 40 points again and might not even score half of that here. The Panthers don't want to watch another team celebrate winning the NFC South title that they have won the past three years in their house and they're playing well enough to stop it. Frankly, we don’t see any reason whatsoever that warrants the Falcons being road chalk here and thus, we’ll skip over the points and play Carolina to win outright.
ASA
Washington @ Chicago
Play: Over 47
The Redskins offense has carried this team all season long. The rank as the 5th most efficient offense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. They rank 3rd in the NFL in total offense averaging 406 YPG and 2nd in the NFL averaging 6.4 YPP. They are off a subpar outing at home vs Carolina scoring only 15 points so we look for a big bounce back here from an offense that has been very good all season long. The Washington defense? Not so much. The rank 29th in the NFL in total defense and have allowed at least 20 points in every game but one this season. Carolina shredded them for almost 450 yards last week. The Chicago offense is starting to look pretty good with Barkley at QB. They put up 27 points last week vs Green Bay in less than ideal weather (10 below windchill). The problem is, they also allowed 30 points in those poor conditions. Barkley threw the ball 43 times in that game with his top WR Jeffery back in the line up. It looks like Chicago will be aggressive offensively with nothing to lose. They will have to do that here as we expect Washington to put points on the board. The Bears will have to play as they did last week in order to keep up. The weather looks light years better than last week with very little win, no precip, and temps in the mid 30’s at game time. Take the OVER in this one.
Andy Iskoe
San Francisco +5
San Francisco defeated the Rams 28-0 at home to open the season and has lost 13 straight games since. The 49ers continue to play hard even in those losses although last week's blowout loss at Atlanta is an exception. Now they face a Rams team in disarray with an interim coach. The change had little impact as the Rams were held to just a FG in last Thursday's loss at Seattle. Regardless of the site when a pair of very bad football teams meet it is hard to justify any home field advantage and such games should truly be pick 'ems. After a 3-1 start the Rams have lost 9 of 10, the lone being that scintillating 9-6 win at the Jets. An old adage, slightly reworded, holds that when garbage meets garbage take garbage plus the points. Such advice can be followed here.
Brandon Lee
Chargers vs. Browns
Play: Chargers -4
There's a lot of talk about how this is going to be the game that Cleveland wins to avoid going 0-16, but I'm simply not buying it. The perception here is that San Diego has nothing to play for with the playoffs not in sites, but I'm not buying it. No one wants to be the team that gives the Browns their first win. This Cleveland team is historically bad and it's only gotten worse as the season has gone on. The offense hasn't been able to do anything of late, scoring 13 or fewer points in 6 straight games. Philip Rivers isn't a quarterback to shut it down and as long as he's playing he's going to give it his best. Rivers should have a field day here against Cleveland and the Chargers will get some balance on offense with the Browns inability to stop the run. Take Cleveland if you want, but I see enough value here on San Diego.
Jack Jones
Falcons vs. Panthers
Play: Under 51½
This is a huge total for a division rivalry game. I think it's been inflated because the Falcons have gone over the total in 12 of their 14 games this season. but the oddsmakers have adjusted and now this is one of the biggest totals of any Falcons game this year.
A big reason the total is so high is because these teams combined for a whopping 81 points in Atlanta in their first meeting. That game got out of hand late as there were 40 points scored in the 4th quarter, but not more than 14 points scored in any other quarter. That's not going to happen again. And the scoring conditions won't be nearly as perfect as they were on the fast track in the Georgia Dome. This game will be played on grass at Bank of America Stadium in Carolina.
Carolina is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot and will offer some resistance here. I've been impressed with the Panthers' fight the last two weeks. They beat San Diego 28-16 and then Washington 26-15 on the road. Holding the Chargers and Redskins to an average of 15.5 points per game is no small feat. The Panthers have been good defensively at home all year, giving up just 20 points and 296 yards per game on average.
The Falcons have also been playing a lot better defensively down the stretch. They have allowed 19 or fewer points in their of their last four games coming in. This is the defense that Dan Quinn envisioned having when he took over last season, and it's finally starting to come together for them late in the season. They should continue to thrive against a Carolina offense that has been held to an average of just 306.7 yards per game in their last seven games. They have not topped more than 272 yards in four of those seven contests.
And that 81-point outburst between these teams was an aberration when you look at this series. The UNDER was 6-0 in the previous six meetings. Not once did they top 44 combined points in any of those six games. They averaged just 38.2 combined points in those six, which is roughly 13 points less than this 51.5-point total.
Carolina is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 home games after allowing 50 or fewer rushing yards last game. Atlanta is 24-7 UNDER in its last 31 games after averaging more than 400 yards of offense in its previous three games. The Falcons are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games off two straight wins by 10 points or more. Atlanta is 14-3 UNDER vs. teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last three years.
Dave Price
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Play: Cardinals +8
The Arizona Cardinals want to settle the score with the Seahawks this week. These teams played to a 6-6 tie in Arizona in their first meeting on October 23rd. But the Cardinals dominated and should have won. They had 443 total yards compared to just 257 for the Seahawks, outgaining them by 186 yards for the game. Recent history suggests that home field means very little when these teams match up. The road team is 5-1-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Arizona won 39-32 in Seattle last season as 3-point dogs. Now they are catching more than a touchdown here when they were 2.5-point favorites in the first meeting at home. The Cardinals might be the most underrated team in the NFL right now. They actually rank 1st in yardage differential in outgaining teams by 56.0 yards per game. They also have a +19 point differential on the season and should obviously be better than 5-8-1. Seattle is 6-21 ATS off a home win by 21 points or more in its last 27 tries.
Ben Burns
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Play: Seahawks -7½
The Cardinals are still a talented team and I respect them. For a variety of reasons, however, they haven't been able to put it together this season. That's going to be a problem this afternoon, as Seattle in December is no place for a struggling team, playing out the string. Ask the Rams. Or the Panthers. The Hawks whippped LA here by a 24-3 margin last week. In their previous game here, on 12/4, the Hawks hammered Carolina by a 40-7 score.
In fact, this is arguably the toughest venue in the league. Seattle is now a perfect 7-0 here on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 28 to 14.6, outgaining them by a 379 to 288 margin.
The Cards played them tough at Arizona early in the season, earning a 6-6 tie. The Hawks, now 8-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons, in the final four weeks, are a different team at this time of the year though. They should pull away for another double-digit win.
Chip Chirimbes
49ers vs. Rams
Play: 49ers +5
This is a 'hot' one! After shutting out the Rams 20-0 on the season's opening night the 49ers have gone out and lost 13 straight going 2-11 ATS. Los Angeles who is now with Jeff Fisher haven't been much better scoring an NFL low 197 points in 14 games. San Francisco know this is a game that they can win and I don't believe the points will matter.
Bill Biles
Chargers vs. Browns
Play: Chargers -4
Chargers dont want to be the team that gives the Browns their only win on the season. Chargers defense has been playing well last couple of weeks. They will shut down the Browns offense and the Chargers win this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Dolphins vs. Bills
Play: Bills -4½
I think the Bills are one of the more underrated teams in the league right now. Buffalo’s only loss against a team that’s currently not in the playoffs, was a Week 2 defeat to the Jets. Four have come against division leaders in New England, Seattle, Oakland and Pittsburgh. The other a 25-28 loss at Miami.
At the same time, I think Miami is overvalued right now. The Dolphins are 8-1 in their last 9 and fresh off a 21-point win at New York. The blowout win over the Jets has covered up the loss of Tannehill. The thing you have to keep in mind, is New York threw the towel in on this season weeks ago. No disrespect to Moore, but this is not the same team without Tannehill under center.
The big key here is that Buffalo still believes they are in the playoff mix. Even though their chances are slim, NFL teams aren’t going to give up until they are officially out. On top of that, they are to be out for revenge here from that earlier loss to the Dolphins. Keep in mind the the Bills have won 4 straight at home over Miami. Each of the last 3 coming by at least 16 points.
I expect a huge effort here from the Buffalo defense, who was embarrassed in that first meeting. The Bills allowed Jay Ajayi to rush for 214 yards and gave up 454 total yards to the Dolphins. Plus, Miami’s ground game has fallen off quite a bit since the last time they played. The Dolphins have failed to rush for more than 83 yards in each of their last 3 and failed to eclipse 100 in 5 straight.
I believe it will be Buffalo’s ground game that ends up being the story here. The Bills own the league’s top ranked rushing attack at 163.6 ypg. They will be facing a Miami defense that ranks 30th against the run, giving up 132.5 ypg.
Dolphins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 division road games, losing on average by 11.8 ppg. Miami is also just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games played in the month of December.
Marc Lawrence
Redskins vs. Bears
Play: Bears +3
Edges - Bears:12-1 ATS home with revenge following the Packers; and 10-2 SUATS in this series. Redskins: 1-5 ATS following Monday night games; and1-5 ATS against NFC North opponents. With Washington having been outgained in each of its last three games and ‘leaking oil’ entering this contest, we recommend a 1* play on Chicago.
Brandon Shively
Jets vs. Patriots
Play: Jets +17
I am making a small play on the Jets Saturday afternoon. I am not saying to bet the house on them, that’s what my 10* Game of the Week is for, but I will advise a 1* wager on the Jets plus the double digits.
There are way too many angles and trends supporting the Jets and going against the Patriots to ignore. The Patriots are the superior team, but there is line value here I feel in a matchup that has seen the last 7 meetings decided by 7 points or less. New England is fat and happy after beating the Broncos last week and clinching the division and a Playoff berth. Do I think they are going to completely lay down? No, but I can’t see them just ‘mashing the gas’ for all 4 quarters.
New England is 1-5 ATS their L6 following a win against Denver, including 0-3 ATS at home. They are also 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings against the Jets. The last two times they laid double digits it was a 1 and 3 point game. Now, I know the Jets are way down this year, but it’s the end of the season and I feel there are possible jobs on the line.
The last time the Jets were a double digit favorite? It was 2014. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they have gotten doubles. The only time in the last 10 years when they got more than 14 points was in 2007 when the Patriots laid 21.5 and won by only 10.
History as a way of repeating itself. With the Patriots 3-9 ATS as a double digit home favorite against their division since 2007 , look for this one to stay in the 13-14 point range.
Of the last 10 matchups, New England has never outgained the Jets by more than 70 yards.
Mike Anthony
Bucs +3.5
Tampa Bay and their surging defense knows what it takes to win the big game like this. Mike Evans is fresh, all the time, he gets the big yards when needed. His 83 YDs / game is too much to contain in a game here vs the pass coverage of New Orleans. I still feel that the game of New Orleans is a turnover waiting to happen, 7 turnovers in the last 3 games this is the farthest thing that makes me feel good about this game for the Saints, even at home. Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay wins taking the points
Rob Vinciletti
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Miami Dolphins +4.5
The Dolphins are 7-0 ats if they scored more than they average in 2 straight with the last game on the road. The Bills are 0-13 ats vs a team with at least 1 win that allows 4.45 or more yards per carry. Buffalo is 0-14 ats as a division favorite off a 10+ point win vs a team that had 9 or less incomplete passes in last game. Game 15 division favorites have failed to cover 30 of 31 if they have a ,500 record. Road dogs off a road Saturday win like Miami vs an opponent off a home win are 10-1 ats since 1995.
Big Al
Atlanta at Carolina
Pick: Carolina
The Panthers shocked a lot of people last week when they went into FedEx Field and upset the Redskins as a 7-point underdog, 26-15. They now return home to play their final home game of the season against the division-leading Falcons. And even though the Falcons need this game much more than does Carolina, I'm going to back the home team. One reason is that home underdogs are solid bets in their final home game of the season, if they're off an upset win. Since 1980, they've cashed 60% of the time, including 32-14 ATS, 70%, if they're playing an opponent with a .600 or better record. Even worse for Atlanta: it's won its last two games while scoring more than 40 points in each. But NFL teams have cashed just 37% since 1998 when playing on the road after scoring more than 40 points in back to back games. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS when playing in their final home game of the season, and are also a perfect 5-0 ATS when playing with revenge in their final home game.