Ross Benjamin
Chicago +3
Chicago has gone 5-0 ATS as a home underdog this season, and won 3 of those contests straight up. Matt Barkley has played much better than expected at quarterback for Chicago after both Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer went down with injuries. I look for Bears running back Jordan Howard to have a big game against a suspect Redskins run defense.
Washington has gone 2-14 in their last 16 non-division away games, and that includes 0-5 SU&ATS when they’re +3.0 to -3.0. The Redskins will have little rest after sustaining a disheartening home loss to Carolina this past Monday night. Meanwhile, this will be the second straight home game for the Bears.
Buffalo -4.5
Buffalo is coming off a 33-13 win over Cleveland as a 10.5-point home favorite. The Bills are now 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite of 3.0 or more. Their only non-cover in that sequence was a near miss this season’s 28-21 win over Jacksonville as a 7.5-point home favorite.
Miami is coming off a resounding 34-13 road win over the Jets, and they easily covered as a 2.5-point favorite. However, the Dolphins are a dismal 0-7 SU&ATS in its last 7 games as a division road underdog of 3.0 or more. They lost those contests by a decisive 19.4 points per game.
Any home favorite of 3.0 to 9.5, coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 4.0 or more, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 7.0, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those contests was 12.9 points per game.
Green Bay -6.5
Green Bay is coming off a thrilling 30-27 win at Chicago last Sunday. It was the Packers 4th straight win and improved their record to 8-6. Minnesota is coming off a humiliating 34-6 home loss to Indianapolis. The Viking have gone 2-7 in their last 9 games after getting off to a 5-0 start.
Any home favorite of 4.0 to 10.0 (Green Bay) with a win percentage of .500 or better, coming off a win in which they scored 30 points or more, versus a team that scored 14 points or less in their previous game, and they (Minnesota) own a win percentage of better than .250, resulted in those home favorites going 38-6 ATS (86.4%) since 2001.
Carolina +3.
Caroline has won and covered in each of their previous 2 games, and is coming off a 26-15 victory over Washington as a 7.0-point away underdog this past Monday night. Atlanta is coming off a 41-13 blowout win against San Francisco last Sunday, and it improved their season record to 9-5 (.643).
Any home underdog of 3.5 or less (Carolina) playing after game 4 of the season, coming off 2 consecutive SU&ATS wins, and the last win came as an away underdog, versus an opponent (Atlanta) with a win percentage of better than .600, and they (Atlanta) scored 20 points or more in its previous game, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-0 SU&ATS since 1990.
Harry Bondi
San Diego / Cleveland Under 43.5
In a game that pits two teams playing out the string with fading offensive units, we’ll take the under. The winless Browns’ offense is a disaster, averaging just 10.3 point per game the last six weeks. In fact, Cleveland hasn’t topped the 14-point barrier since Week 8 and overall at home this year they are 2-5 to the under while averaging just 14.7 points per game. The Chargers, meanwhile, may be the most disinterested team in the league today. Coming off a brutal home loss to division rival Oakland last week, the Bolts now head East on Christmas Eve to play in the cold in a meaningless game. The Chargers offense has also stalled in recent weeks, averaging just 19.6 points per game the last six weeks.
David Banks
Cincinnati @ Houston
Pick: Houston -1.5
The Houston Texans appear to be on a crash course with Tennessee for the AFC South title. After consecutive wins over Indianapolis and Jacksonville, the Texans are 8-6 and tied with the Titans for first place in the division. The two teams meet in the final week of the season. To keep pace with their rival, Houston needs to take care of Cincinnati on Saturday. They will likely do it with Tom Savage, not Brock Osweiler, at quarterback.
Osweiler was benched last week and it was Savage who led the Texans to a 21-20 win over the Jaguars. The former Pitt star went 23-of-36 for 260 yards in leading the Texans to victory. He would face a Bengals defense that is solid, but Cincinnati was officially eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to Pittsburgh last week. The Bengals, 12-4 last year, returned virtually the same team for the 2016 season and underachieved all year.
Houston has been somewhat inconsistent during the season much of it because of the erratic play of Osweiler at quarterback, but one thing they do well is win at home. The Texans are 6-1 at NRG Stadium. With Tennessee playing 2-12 Jacksonville, Houston is surely going to need a win to keep pace with the Titans and set up a de facto AFC South championship game in the final week of the season.
Dr Bob
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Teams that are 16 point favorites or more have unsurprisingly been 49-3 in the past 25 years, with the last loss coming in 1995 when the eventual Super Bowl Champ – Dallas Cowboys were upset in week 14 as 17.5 point favorites in a divisional game against Washington. The Patriots are a 16.5 point favorite this week and the Steelers are a 16.5 point initial favorite over the Browns in week 17. The (12-2) Patriots have won 5 straight as Touchdown Tom Brady continues his NFL revenge tour, as he is averaging 7.8 NYPP with a 22-2 TD-INT ratio. However, in the recent 5 game win streak, it has been the defense that has improved their play, holding opponents to an average of 14 points per game. Bryce Petty has been given the start against the AFC-leading Pats and he has been the worst of the QBs that have suited up for the Gang Green this season, averaging 5.2 NYPP with a 3-6 TD-INT ratio. The advanced stats model shows value on the Under, so UNDER (43.5) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to the Patriots (-16.5).
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
In a game that has serious draft positioning implications, two of the worst teams in football square off in an NFC West sparring session. All indications are that No. 1 selection, Jared Goff, will give it a go this week as the 5 games he has started have all resulted in losses with an average margin of loss of -20. Goff has an atrocious 4.2 NYPP and 2015 offensive Rookie of the Year, Todd Gurley, has not provided any ground support at 3.2 yards per rush. The Niners are riding a 13 game losing streak, with their last win coming against the LA Rams in week 1. While Kaepernick has not been getting it done through the air at 5.3 NYPP, the Niners have actually been quite effective on the ground, averaging the 4.8 yards per rush. The advanced stats model sees value on the road dog with a bit more offense getting it done on the road, so it is a Strong Opinion at 49ers (+5). Lean to Under (39.5).
Oskeim Sports
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7.5
Seattle knows that wins over Arizona and San Francisco in its final two games of the regular season effectively guarantees a first round bye in the playoffs. The Seahawks are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season (4-2-1 ATS), and it's difficult to imagine a scenario under which Arizona (5-8 ) shows any interest in playing on Christmas Eve before one of the most difficult atmospheres in the NFL.
Seattle possesses a decent offense that is 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play), but the Seahawks' attack becomes potent on its home turf. Indeed, Seattle is averaging 28.0 points and 379 points per game at 6.2 yards per play at home this season.
Quarterback Russell Wilson is completing 68.1% of his pass attempts at home for 264 yards at 7.9 yards per pass play. Seattle should move the ball effectively against an Arizona defense that is allowing 29.7 points and 304 total yards at 10.2 yards per point on the road. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 64.7% of their pass attempts at home against Arizona's secondary.
The scheduling circumstances also favor Seattle as the Cardinals are playing their fifth road game in seven weeks and were eliminated from postseason contention with last week's 48-41 loss to New Orleans. Meanwhile, Seattle is coming off a ho-hum 24-3 home win over the Rams last Thursday and has had a few extra days to prepare for Saturday's clash with Arizona.
From a technical standpoint, Arizona is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in its last eight games overall, 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, 1-5 ATS in its last six games versus .501 or greater opposition and 2-12 ATS in its last fourteen games after yielding 351+ total yards in its previous game.
The Seahawks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 December affairs, 11-5 ATS in their last sixteen games versus teams with a losing record, 35-17 ATS a home versus .499 or worse opposition and have covered four straight home games.
With Seattle standing at 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, lay the points with the Seahawks.
Dwayne Bryant
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +5
An AFC South rematch takes place in Jacksonville on Saturday, as the 2-12 Jaguars host the 8-6 Tennessee Titans. Tennessee won the first meeting 36-22 as 3-point home favorites on a Thursday night a couple months ago. The Titans are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five same-season division rematches when they won the first meeting.
The Jaguars should be motivated not only because this is a division revenge game, but because they will be playing for a new head coach. Gus Bradley was finally fired after last weekend's game. Former Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone will be the interim head coach for the remainder of the season. Jaguars players should feel like they are playing for their jobs under what will be a new regime.
The Titans do not have a good history in Jacksonville. Despite the Jaguars seemingly being perennial division door mats, the Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Jacksonville.
This is not a good situational spot for Tennessee. The Titans are coming off back-to-back wins over Denver and Kansas City, and they have a crucial AFC South revenge showdown with Houston at home next weekend in a game that could decide the AFC South title. It would not surprise me to see the Titans come out flat in this one.
The Jaguars have some good young talent on defense. It didn't show on the field the last time these two met. I expect a much better effort this time around at home and under a new coach.
Mike Rose
Washington at Chicago
Play: Over 46.5
The Washington Redskins found themselves on the right side of the playoff bubble heading into last Monday night’s tilt with the Panthers. When it was all said and done, Jay Gruden’s squad was on the wrong side and now needs numerous things to go their way just to make it back to the playoffs. The Chicago Bears have absolutely nothing to play for heading into this Week 16 tilt, but it’s likely the last team the desperate Skins want to run up against knowing how well its competed over the last five weeks.
Weather will not play a role in this matchup. The wind will be minimal and the temps will be in the mid-30s. Perfect football weather this time of the season! With that, I’m expecting both of these offenses to thrive in a game that will likely be a back and forth affair. Washington has cashed over tickets in five of its seven road games, while the Bears have played to high scorers in two of the three home games Barkley was under center. The over also stands a perfect 6-0 the last six times Washington returned to the field off an outright defeat. I’ll give Washington the win, but would be inclined to take the points with the Bears should the hook finds its way onto the -3 come kickoff.
Bruce Marshall
Colts +4
Andrew Luck is back in the Bay Area, where he starred for the Cardinal, down the Peninsula across from Oakland at Stanford. Indy needs help in the AFC South, but it has Jacksonville on deck, so the Colts still have a fighting chance for the playoffs if they can win this one. And why not, after Indy's ground game (161 YR) and defense (3 takeaways) showed up big time last week when visiting the desperate Vikings? Oakland QB Derek Carr still appeared to be a bit less than 100% in the Raiders' 19-16 comeback win at San Diego. And Oakland's team chest is puffed out pretty big after clinching the Raider Nation's first playoff berth in 13 years. Oakland's defense is vulnerable to good passers, such as Luck.
SPORTS WAGERS
Mid Tenn St. -7 over HAWAII
Hawaii, eligible at 6-7 via an exemption, is bowling for the first time since 2010. The Rainbow Warriors finished alone in second place in the MWC West division this year and are 4-4 in bowl games played at home in Aloha Stadium. That’s nice but Hawaii might be the worst team to play in a bowl game in the last decade. The Warriors were blown out a bunch of times and lost to every team they played that had a pulse. Hawaii defeated cupcakes only.
Last year, the Blue Raiders lost to Western Kentucky 58-28. This year they lost to WKU by one point in double OT. Last year, MTSU lost to Louisiana Tech, 45-16. This year they beat Tech by four points, 38-34. Last year, the Blue Raiders lost 45-31 in the Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl to Western Michigan, which is rather significant, as we point out below.
Just about all coaches have a good plan. All know their Xs and Os. All but a few have sufficient talent and resources on hand to fashion at least a marginal winner in their leagues. The bottom line is whether the coach can get his players to "do it;" to buy into the program's values and the plan to win. There's a lot we like about first-year Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich, but his first Hawaii team is not yet mature enough to really understand what it takes to win at this level. The Warriors will be outclassed here on Christmas Eve by a far more mature Middle Tennessee squad, who is fully prepared for this one and whose offense has a very favorable matchup, regardless of whether ailing quarterback Brent Stockstill plays.
Middle is now no longer a stranger to postseason distractions in an island paradise, having lost the Bahamas Bowl last year. But while the 2015 Blue Raiders were a little too satisfied with just being there, this year's bunch is in it to win it, and Hawaii is not prepared do anything about it. The biggest plays require having not only one team in perfect condition, but both. They require the ability to lose any single player to injury without major detriment. They require at least one positional group mismatch that the opposing team simply cannot handle. They require you to be able to move the number a touchdown to the bad and still feel the same way. This game checks all those key boxes and a lot more. This year it’s Hawaii that is just happy to be here and will likely pay the price that Middle paid last year. This line is very likely to move up to -7½, -8 or 8½ so get in early. We’re calling Middle in a blowout so if you miss the best number, you can choose how to proceed.
JOSEPH D'AMICO
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Play: Seahawks -7½
These are 2 very different teams that played to a 6-6 tie back on October 23rd. The injury-depleted Arizona stop-unit has yielded 23 or more points in 5 straight contests, going 1-4 both SU and ATS, and eliminating the team from post-season play. Not to mention that they possess 1-5 SU and ATS marks on the road this season and go into Century Link Field where Seattle is 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS, and are outscoring visitor by 13.4 PPG. The Seahawks have gotten healthy on both sides of the ball and outside of a "meltdown" against the Packers a few weeks back, have played great football since November began. The own the #2 defense in the NFL (16.8 PPG allowed) and are 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings in this series.
BRANDON POWELL
Bengals vs. Texans
Play: Texans -130
The Texans have so much more to play for here tonight. This Bengals team is riddled with injuries and has always struggled coming to Houston and playing in meaningful games. I expect the Texans Defense to lead them to a close win here.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Chargers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +5
I know it is hard to make a play on the Browns when you consider just how pathetic their season has been but they are at home for the last time this season and they're hosting a fading Chargers team. San Diego has lost (and failed to cover) three straight games heading into this one. As a result, don't be surprised if the Browns are the hungrier team here as they are so desperate to get a win and avoid that dreaded 0-16 that is staring them in the face. With being eliminated from playoff contention, I just don't see the Chargers having much fight left in them for this game. Also, as a non-divisional road favorite, San Diego is on a 5-10 ATS run. The Browns are on a 4-1 ATS run against AFC West opponents and the Chargers are on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the past three seasons combined. It may be "ugly" but it should prove to be the right call based on home field, situational, and motivational factors here. Grab the ugly home dog.
RAY MONOHAN
Miami / Buffalo Over 42
The Dolphins get set to take on the Bills Saturday and the Over here has some of value. Both of these teams have been Over bets this season.
Miami has hit the Over in 10 of their 14 games this season. Buffalo is right there with them, as they've hit the Over in 11 of their 14 games. At home, the Bills are a perfect 7-0 to the Over.
Expect a lot of big plays here from both sides. They'll be a lot of deep chances here, as the secondaries for both teams are a struggle. They're very vulnerable, which helps this Over a lot.
Some trends to note. Over is 5-0 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 7-3 in Dolphins last 10 games in December.
Expect back and forth action, with a lot of big yardage plays. Given that, the Over here has value.
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 21-11 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner is on the Miami Dolphins catching points on the road in Buffalo, as I think they can beat the Bills outright.
While the Bills have a chance to put a dent in the Dolphins' playoff chances, Miami has a shot to clinch its first playoff berth since 2008, while sending the Bills to another early vacation and extending the league's longest active playoff drought to 17 seasons.
I'm not concerned with the fact the Fins have lost four in a row at Buffalo, there is plenty of motivation for a team that has turned its season around by winning eight of nine since opening the season 1-4.
Veteran backup quarterback Matt Moore did a good job in completing 12 of 18 for 236 yards and a career-best four touchdowns in a 34-13 win over the Jets last weekend, and should be warmed up for chilly Buffalo. Moore has a strong arm, can turn this game vertical real quick and will exploit the Bills rather weak secondary.
Buffalo will try to run this game through LeSean McCoy, since the Bills are 5-1 when he tops 100 yards. But something tells me defensive end Mario Williams will be keyed in on Buffalo's rushing game, as he returns to Orchard Park for the first time since being released by the Bills on March 1.
Look for a balanced effort on both sides of the ball by the Dolphins, who are on winning ATS runs of 4-1 against divisional foes and 7-2 overall.
1* DOLPHINS
Bob Valentino
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a chance to get into the postseason and needs to keep winning to get there. Their defense is stringent enough to go into New Orleans and win this game outright.
The Bucs (8-6) are 9-5 against the number, and come in with a defense that is allowing a mere 19.3 points per game in their last three contests.
On the flipside, the Saints' defense has been horrible, allowing 28 points per game, 28.3 in their last three and a whopping 30.3 at home this season.
Tampa Bay has covered six straight, while the Saints have failed to cover two of their last three. One of those games was just two weeks ago, when the Bucs won 16-11 in Tampa Bay.
Look for the Buccaneers to nab this one too.
5* BUCCANEERS