Eric Schroeder
My free winner for today will be on the Atlanta Falcons, who will take pride in knocking off the Carolina Panthers. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan must beat the three-time defending NFC South champion Panthers in Carolina if the Falcons want to clinch their first division title since 2012.
It's not the exact meaning of taking the division championship road through Carolina, but that's the way it is. The Falcons are 9-5, while the Panthers are 6-8. And as much as Carolina would like to play the role of spoiler, I think its season will reach rotten status when the Falcons win this game with ease.
Ryan threw for 503 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-33 win over Carolina earlier this season, so the confidence will be there for him in this one. Meanwhile, receiver Julio Jones leads the NFL with 1,253 yards receiving despite missing the last two games with a sprained toe. He had a franchise-record 300 yards in that last meeting with Carolina. He won't duplicate the feat, but if he plays he will have an impact on the offense.
Either way, look for Ryan to have an impressive game, Devonta Freeman to balance the offense, and the Falcons to run away with this game.
2* FALCONS
Brad Wilton
Gus Bradley was shown the door after a disappointing tenure in Jacksonville, and not that the Jags are going anywhere this season, there is talent on the team, and they have fought hard the past 4 weeks in losses to Houston (1 point), Minnesota (9 points), Denver (10 points) and Buffalo (7 points).
The Titans are now in the proverbial "driver's seat" in the division, but they had to go to the well the past 2 weeks in wins over the Broncos, and last week at the gun in Kansas City. My question is, can the Titans stretch the margin away from home where their only try in the road favorite role since 2013 was a spread loss at Chicago a few weeks back.
Tennessee romped Jacksonville on a Thursday night earlier this season, 36-22, as the home team in this series is now on a 5 game straight up win streak, and the host is also 8-2 straight up the last 10 series showdowns. The host is also 3-0-1 against the spread the past 4 series meetings.
Tennessee avoids the straight up loss, but this one heads right down to the wire as the still-trying home dog Jags get the cover.
3* JACKSONVILLE
Brett Atkins
My comp play for Saturday is the Over in the Cardinals-Seahawks game.
Yeah, yeah, I know the first time these teams played on October 23rd under the Thursday night lights we witnessed one of the ugliest displays of football in years, as the teams played to that memorable 6-6 draw in overtime!
Obviously, an easy Under. Why then am I going Over today? Simple, Arizona has nothing to play for, and has been letting it rip of late, as they hit the Emerald City with Overs in 5 in a row, and 6 of their last 7.
For their part, Seattle has played Overs in 2 of their last 3, and the Over is 4-2 their last 6 played at Century Link Field this season.
2 of the last 3 series meetings between the teams in Seattle have landed Over the total, so let's look for the points to add up to an Over here on Week 16.
2* ARIZONA-SEATTLE OVER
FRANK JORDAN
New York vs. New England
Play: New England -17
The Jets have had their issues this year and after the win in San Francisco two weeks ago things were looking better at home with a 13-10 decent at halftime and was anyone's game, but the second half was a different story with Miami scoring 21 points in the third quarter leading to a 24-13 Miami win. These two teams played a couple of weeks ago with New York having a 17-13 lead at one point before the Patriots scored the last nine points to win the game 22-17. The Jets are in flux as they come in at 4-10 while the Patriots are thriving at 12-2 in first place in the AFC East and currently in the top spot. Look for the Patriots to roll over their division rivals as they are just too good and the Jets are that bad.
Larry Ness
Indianapolis vs. Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The 11-3 Oakland Raiders have clinched an AFC playoff spot (first since 2002) and are now focused on earning a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the 7-7 Indianapolis Colts are in danger of missing out on the postseason for the second year in a row. Indianapolis is one game behind the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans in the AFC South and is two games behind the Miami Dolphins in the wild-card derby. However, the Colts' chances to win the division or claim a wild-card are exceptionally bleak.
The Colts must win both their last two games to have a chance in the AFC South. They would need the Texans to lose their last two contests, including one against the Titans, and have Tennessee lose Saturday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 9-5 Miami Dolphins currently possess the last AFC wild-card spot and the Colts would need the Dolphins, Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens to all lose their final two games. Lots of luck, as the saying goes!
"It's sort of a one-game season for us," Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck said. "I know from our perspective as an offense they're a really good defensive unit. They force turnovers, they've got good edge rushers and they've got good cover guys. It will be a great challenge." Luck is bothered by minor shoulder and thumb injures but doesn't expect to be hindered on game day. He's had a nice bounce-back season, throwing for 3,631 yards and 27 TDs (just 10 INTs) while earning a 97.1 QB rating. His running game hasn't helped much (102.3 YPG ranks 19th) and the Colts D hardly at all, ranking 27th in yards allowed (370.9 YPG) and 24.2 PPG (23rd).
However, entering this game, Luck is likely the healthier of the two starting QBs. Oakland Derek Carr is playing with an injured right pinkie finger that has affected his recent play. Still, Carr is enjoying an MVP-caliber season with 3,705 yards passing with 25 TD passes against just six interceptions (95.2 QB rating). That said, he's just 36-of-71 passing for 330 yards over the past two games (just one TD but also just one INT). A telling sign is that the Raiders' offense is also operating nearly exclusively out of the shotgun to prevent the center snap exchange from irritating Carr's injured finger.
It's true that the Colts have thrived on the road after losing their first three away games, as they will seek their fifth straight victory on enemy soil in this one (4-0 SU & ATS run!). However, slightly injured or not, Carr has re-energized the Raiders and last Sunday's win in San Diego clinched the team's first playoff berth in 14 years! Oakland has the second-best record in the AFC behind the New England Patriots (12-2) and also holds a one-game lead in the AFC West over the Kansas City Chiefs (10-4). Carr was one of SEVEN Raiders named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday!
The Colts bring a 4-0 SU & ATS road run into this contest but Oakland has a streak of its own, as it has won four in a row at home (3-1 ATS with the loss by a half-point!) after dropping two of its first three. Oakland gets the win and cover, ending Indy's playoff hopes. Lay it.
Power Sports
Indianapolis vs. Oakland
Pick: Indianapolis
The Raiders are in the playoffs and all that's left for them to determine is whether or not they'll get a first round bye. To do so, they must finish with a better record than the Chiefs, who already have swept them this season. Obviously, a first round bye is important. But the sense of urgency won't be nearly as great as it is for the Colts, a team whose playoff standing is on a lot less firm footing. Indy will probably have to win out to win the AFC South as they currently trail both Houston and Tennessee by a game w/ two to play.
The Colts turned in one of the most dominant performances of the week last Sunday when they went to Minnesota and clobbered the Vikings, 34-6 as five-point underdogs. They finished w/ a sizable 411-282 edge in total yards after dominating the game from the start. Andrew Luck should be able to take advantage of an Oakland defense that isn't even close to being on par w/ Minnesota's. The Colts are 4-1 ATS on the road this year and have pulled nine outright upsets as dogs the L3 seasons.
Bob Balfe
Patriots -17
Last season the Patriots took their foot off the gas to end the year which cost the playoff positioning. This season they will not make the same mistake as they have to win out to get the bye and #1 seed in the AFC. The Jets are a farm team right now. There is no skilled talent on the offensive side due to injuries making this the most predictable team in the NFL. I don’t think the Patriots are going to try to blow this team out, but over the course of 60 minutes things happen. The Jets Special Teams have been brutal this year and I really can’t see them being close in this game.
Dave Cokin
Bengals at Texans
Play: Texans -1
The Bengals are one of the season's big disappointments and they're now reduced to playing for pride. That's sometimes enough for NFL teams as these guys are professionals and always want to win. But I thought Cincy was all-in to knock off the hated Steelers last weekend and there's a very realistic chance they will be flat here. Houston gained momentum last week with the change to Tom Savage at QB and I think the added confidence will show here. Bigger game for Houston and I prefer their mindset here as well.
Jimmy Moore
Indianapolis +3.5
The Raiders have a lot to play for the but fact that they locked in a playoff spot last week will have them a little satisfied which is a dangerous way to play, especially against an Indianapolis team that is in a dog fight for the AFC South. The Colts have covered their last 4 road games and QB Luck loves December games going 10-5-2 ATS in December games he has started. Oakland is in a tough division sandwich here coming off of a game against San Diego and staring dead ahead at a game against Denver and the Raiders have only covered 1 of their last 8 games as a favorite before playing Denver.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ Seattle
Pick: Arizona +9
A big NFC West rivalry game. Arizona is out of any playoff race, but is well coached, and has a chance to inflict some pain on its first-place rival. Arizona is 12-4 ATS after allowing 250+ yards passing, plus on a 12-5 ATS run in December. The Cardinals have talent on defense, fourth in the NFL in yards allowed, #12 against the run, and fifth against the pass. They are excellent at rushing the passer and face a weak Seattle offensive line, a tough matchup for the home team that ranks #20 in rushing the football and #22 in points scored. The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS following a spread cover. These teams tied 6-6 in the first meeting, though the Cardinals dominated the game with an edge in yards 443-257, including going 10-of-21 on third down against this great Seattle defense. Seattle was just 3-of-14 on third down and averaged 2.7 yards per rush. The road team has covered four straight when these rivals clash, and make it five straight here.
The Real Animal
Miami +4.5
How about this for irony? Miami has lost four straight in Buffalo. Their last win was in 2011 with Matt Moore as the starting QB. I know the theory of a warm-weather team playing in Buffalo in late December. But I’m not buying the Bills being favored by this much. The Dolphins have won 8/9 while the only win by 7-7 Buffalo was against Cleveland. Tyrod Taylor has been sacked 40 times this year and the Dolphins have a solid pass rush. Go figure it: Matt Moore is 19-7 ATS as a starter in this league and comes off a career-high four touchdown passes versus the Jets. 7-7 division favorites in game #15 are 10-31-3 ATS since 1980. Coach Gase isn’t getting much recognition but the Dolphins are having a very good year and if they can upset Buffalo they should host a New England team resting everybody next Sunday for a possible 11-5. Miami has a healthy offensive line and running back Jay Ajayi should be able to come close to matching the numbers of McCoy. Rex Ryan fighting for his job but from what I’ve read the verdict is all but sealed and it’s not good for foot-fetish followers. The weatherman is calling for 38-degrees at kickoff which is almost balmy by Buffalo standards in December. Buffalo could be without tackle Cordy Glenn, who is listed as doubtful. That won’t help keep Taylor upright. Unfortunately, Miami is listing corner Byron Maxwell as doubtful and the Dolphins’ history here will keep this as a 3* regular. My track record with Miami is not good but I can’t resist. Respect the foot but Buffalo should not be -4.5.