Free Picks for Saturday, December 31st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Strike Point Sports
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Play: North Carolina
The Tar Heels have done well to keep their Top Ten ranking ahead of ACC play, but UNC has yet to really hit overdrive and impress this year, at least from my perspective. If North Carolina wants to be a serious player in March, they need to start to make a big jump now. In Atlanta is a great chance to do so. Georgia Tech isn't anything special, and with Carolina favored on the road, oddsmakers are counting on them to come through in a big way. Much more important games for Roy Williams team in league play upcoming, but none more important than getting a strong first win to begin ACC play. Carolina jumps on the Yellow Jackets for some early confidence in the conference.
Robert Ferringo
Villanova at Creighton
Play: Creighton
The nonconference portion of the season is coming to a close and league play is starting up. This is the first taste of Big East play for the defending national champions. And their first road tilt comes against one of the best teams in the country. I think No. 1 is going down. Creighton is absolutely legit and they are undefeated at 12-0. In their biggest home test of the season they smacked a Top 10 Wisconsin team, 79-67. Creighton plays out of its mind in its own gym and I think that the early start time is going to work against the visitors. The Bluejays have a load of experience and a lot of talent, as they routinely go eight- or nine-deep. I have nothing bad to say about Villanova. They are the defending champs and clearly one of the best teams in college basketball. Josh Hart is one of the nation's best and most versatile players, and because Nova only plays around seven guys opponents have no choice but to beat the Wildcats' best. Villanova has a true road win over Top 15 Purdue and also took down Notre Dame. But they could've lost either game. Villanova is beatable. They lost at Virginia and at Xavier last season, and four of their five losses last year came off their home court. Creighton has had some success against the Wildcats in their brief time in the Big East together, sweeping Nova in 2013-14 and nearly pulling the upset at home in 2015. Villanova embarrassed Creighton last year, winning by 14 in Omaha and by 25 in Philadelphia. I think the Bluejays get some revenge in this one.
Allen Eastman
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
Play: Notre Dame
The Irish and Panthers are former Big East rivals. Notre Dame is playing their first true road game of the season, and I expect them to have some trouble at first. But the only two teams to beat Notre Dame so far this season are Villanova and Purdue. And the Irish had a great opportunity to win both games. Pitt has been less impressive. The Panthers have a new coach in Kevin Stallings and this is his first time through the ACC. Stallings and the Panthers have played a pretty easy schedule to this point and have only beaten one team (Marquette) that is in the Top 60 right now. I give Notre Dame the edge in this one because they have the better guard play. Matt Farrell and Steve Vasturia are experienced leaders. And V.J. Beachem and Bonzie Colson will be able to match up with Pitt's strong forwards. But the Panthers struggle at the point guard spot, and that will hurt them here. I like Notre Dame to win the second half and take the game in a close one.
SPORTS WAGERS
LSU -3½ over Louisville
The Cardinals continue to get way too much credit simply by virtue of the fact that the 2016 Heisman Trophy Winner, quarterback LaMar Jackson will be setting foot on the field. Yeah, Jackson is very good but he’s not so good when he can’t run and is forced out of the pocket and on the move to move East/West. He’s about to face one of the more backbiting defense in the land. Furthermore, Heisman Winners have a notorious history of laying eggs after hoisting the hardware. Just because this game features a Heisman Winner performing on a lower card compared to the many instances we see them in National Championship games, doesn’t exempt this scenario from being prime for materializing such a phenomenon.
The Tigers could have easily folded their tents and failed to qualify for the post-season. However, the Tigers defense only grew more vicious and fierce under the guidance of interim boss Ed Orgeron, as the D carried this team to victories after they suffered many key injuries to several playmakers on their offensive unit. While LSU lost four games this season, it is worth gazing at who those four opponents were. First there was a then unranked Wisconsin on Labor Day weekend when the Tigers came in as a highly touted squad projected by some to make the College Football Playoff. The Tigers would be shocked and lose by two points and this was the prime mover that began the Fire Les Miles discussion. After losing to Wisky, the Tigers would lose on the road in a hard-fought rivalry game against Auburn where they fell by just five points. The next loss after that would come against Alabama where despite losing 10-0, LSU had its chances to actually beat the seemingly unbeatable defending champs. LSU would round off their collection of losses in yet another rivalry game against Florida. Regardless of these results, some analysts have stated that the Bayou Bengals have a better backfield of running backs top-to-bottom than some NFL teams. As a result, the Tigers have employed a “next man up” philosophy and utilized their incredible depth to their advantage. Derrius Guice will be leading the charge and his most recent performance against the Aggies of Texas A&M would suggest he is more than ready to carry the load, as he went off for 285 yards and four TDs in LSU’s most recent win at College Station. The absence of Leonard Fournette (a pre-season favorite Heisman) is all but forgotten at this point.
Louisville comes into this contest gimping, as their defense has surrendered 36 points or more in their previous two outings, both losses. In both these matches against Houston and Kentucky, the Cards were spotting an abundance of points to both and yet they would flounder outright. In their season finale against the Wildcats, Louisville would surrender 228 yards on the ground. LSU has the blueprint to turn Guise loose and play to their one strength offensively against this vulnerable Cardinals defense. This is not a fair fight but it’s priced like it is and that’s our prompt to move in hard.
Georgia Tech -3 over Kentucky
Despite an early kickoff, the TaxSlayer Bowl features one of the more compelling match-ups of the entire bowl season. Given where they stood at the mid-point of the season, nobody expected the Jackets and Wildcats to be playing on New Year’s Weekend. Typically a “punching above the weight” angle can be taken when scenarios like this manifest for one squad but it is null and void when the argument could be made for both outfits, so we will shift our focus to another phenomenon we covered in our analysis of the Citrus Bowl with Louisville and LSU.
When a team features a Heisman winner, sometimes there are reversing effects of this player seen in other games as a result of an occurrence that involved said player. For Kentucky, it comes in off a stunning upset of Louisville as a 24-point pooch. As a result, Kentucky finished 7-5 and can claim bragging rights for defeating Heisman winner LaMar Jackson. That one result is causing a big overreaction. The popular philosophy is simple; if UK can beat Louisville and Jackson with 24 points given to them, why shouldn’t they beat Tech getting any points? As a result of this presupposition, we have seen a heavy stream of action roll in on the ‘Cats and short-price the Jackets as a favorite. This plays perfectly in to our hands.
Georgia Tech is every bit qualified to be spotting points to Kentucky. The Yellow Jackets own two impressive road wins to cap off an end of the season three-game winning streak. First, the Yellow Jackets defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg by 10 points despite being priced as a two-touchdown dog at the close. Virginia Tech represented the Coastal Division in the ACC Championship and won nine games this season and we all saw what they did in the second half to Arkansas on Thursday night. To end their season, Tech marched Between The Hedges against their arch nemesis Georgia and defeated them in their own backyard, erasing a thirteen point deficit in the fourth quarter to do so. This is a football team that doesn’t give up and sticks to their guns even when their back is against the wall. Georgia Tech began the season 3-3 but found its stride down the backstretch by only losing to UNC in its final six games. What also captivates us about the Jackets is how well they match-up with Kentucky. The Yellow Jackets own a signature option rushing attack that ranks them 11th in America, Kentucky’s rushing defense is one of the worst, as they sit at 108th overall. Situationally, this sets up marvelously for us. Another excellent barometer to decipher how these teams set-up is by looking at common opponents. For GT, they ravaged Vanderbilt by 31 and also took down the Dawgs in Athens. Kentucky squeaked by Vandy by a touchdown and lost to Georgia at home on a late field goal. We have to like our chances here with the Jackets bearing a smaller price-tag then what we were looking at when the market opened.
Oskeim Sports
Kentucky vs Georgia Tech
Play: Kentucky +4
Kentucky is playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2010 and take the field with plenty of confidence after upsetting Louisville 41-38 in its season finale as 28.5-point road underdogs. After head coach Mark Stoops inserted Stephen Johnson under center, the Wildcats won seven of their final ten games. I like Kentucky in this game and will make Stoops' squad my free sports pick for Saturday, December 31.
Kentucky possesses a potent offense that averaged 6.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.6 yards per play to a mediocre offense. While Johnson is not a great passer, completing 54.5% of his pass attempts with a 6-12 ratio, the Wildcats' ground attack is prolific behind running backs Stanley Williams and Benny Snell.
Both Williams and Snell rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2016, and the Wildcats ended the regular season averaging 5.5 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yards per rush play to a mediocre ground game. Overall, Kentucky's offense is 0.8 yards per play better than average, including 0.7 yards per rush attempt better than average.
That production is certainly good enough to exploit a subpar Georgia Tech defense that is 0.3 yards per play worse than average (5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play). The Yellow Jackets' stop unit was really exploited on the road this season where they allowed 29.2 points and 447 total yards per game at 6.6 yards per play.
Williams and Snell should find plenty of room to run against a bad Georgia Tech front seven that was 0.6 yards per play worse than average against the run. I also expect Johnson to have some success through the air against a pedestrian Georgia Tech secondary that allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.7% of their pass attempts during the regular season.
Georgia Tech enters the Taxslayer Bowl with a triple-option attack producing 254 yards at 5.5 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow 4.4 yards per rush play. With Justin Thomas at quarterback, the Yellow Jackets also have a passing threat.
Thomas threw for almost 1,500 yards this season, and the Yellow Jackets averaged an incredible 11.0 yards per pass attempt in 2016 (against a group of secondaries that would combine to allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt to a mediocre quarterback).
Overall, I rate Georgia Tech's offense 1.0 yards per play better than average with Thomas leading the triple-option attack. The Yellow Jackets will move the chains against a subpar Kentucky defense that is 0.6 yards per play worse than average (6.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play).
My math favors Georgia Tech by three points but the motivational edge favors Kentucky, who is fired up to be playing in its first bowl game since 2010 and is eager to secure the school's first bowl win since 2008. Kentucky is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall, including 4-0 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a win.
Georgia Tech is a money-burning 2-5 SU and ATS in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson, which is not surprising since teams have extra time to prepare for his option attack. Despite entering postseason play on a three-game win streak, the Yellow Jackets were actually out-first downed by a 72-38 margin in those games! Georgia Tech also yielded 174 rushing yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry to bowl teams this season.
For additional technical support, consider that .749 or worse bowl favorites off three consecutive against-the-spread wins are a woeful 17-47 ATS since 1980, including just 9-39 ATS as favorites of less than six points. Kentucky also applies to a very good 12-2-1 ATS angle of mine that invests on certain bowl underdogs off a win versus teams that are allowing over 22.0 points per game on the season.
With Kentucky motivated to secure its first 8-win season since 2007, grab the points with the Wildcats.
Wunderdog
Louisville +3.5
LSU got a spark in mid-season with a coaching change, but finished 2-2 SU/ATS. That included a loss to Florida at home as a two-TD favorite, 16-10. The QB position has been below average all year with three players combining for 10 TDs and six picks. LSU has been a bust in Bowls the last five years (1-4 ATS), losing to Clemson and Notre Dame as favorites of -5.5 and -8.5. The Tigers are also 5-12 ATS after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. They face an electric Louisville offense behind QB Lamar Jackson (30 TDs, nine INTs), the Heisman Trophy winner, who ran for 1,538 yards. He is the only player in FBS history to throw for 30-plus touchdowns and rush for 20-plus TDs in the regular season. Louisville hasn't been an underdog all season until now and went 3-1 ATS last year under Bobby Petrino as a dog. The Cardinals are also 16-7 ATS following a straight-up loss and topped an SEC team in last year's Bowl (Texas A&M), 27-21.
DAVE COKIN
OHIO STATE VS CLEMSON
PLAY: OHIO STATE -2.5
I might have pulled the trigger a little early on this one as far as the line goes, as I wasn’t anticipating the public backing Clemson. But that’s been the story so far.
This is the toughest game on the Saturday college slate for me, to be honest. Clemson has a definite experience edge in terms of big games and Swinney is a very tough game coach. I actually think he’s right there with Meyer on that count, which means he’s an elite coach.
But I still power rated this game Buckeyes -5 and they do own the offensive and defensive rushing stats edges. Teams fitting those parameters are 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS in the bowls so far, so while it’s not crushing, it’s still winning, and I basically won’t go against those stats.
Gut feeling is this is a real seat squirmer, but between the stats and the power ratings I have Ohio State winning, so at this price the Buckeyes are the play.
Bruce Marshall
Creighton +1
Nova's hold on the top spot in the polls is suddenly looking a bit precarious after almost losing to big underdog DePaul at home on Wednesday. If the Cats aren't careful, they might be staring down the barrel of their first loss in this game, as unbeaten Creighton has added a couple new weapons this season (Kansas State transfer G Marcus Foster at 18.8 ppg, and 7-0 frosh C Justin Patton, coming fast and now at 13 ppg) to give HC Greg McDermott uncommon depth with a bench featuring former starters, with the team combining for a nation's 2nd-best (behind only UCLA) 54% FGs. Number one might take a tumble today...and it won't be much of an upset.
Brad Wilton
Backing Georgia Tech to use their strength - the run, versus Kentucky's weakness - defending the run, in this year's Taxslayer Bowl as the Yellow Jackets get the bowl win and cover after missing bowl play last year.
The Yellow Jackets may not have been bowling last season, but they have won and covered 2 of their last 3 bowls under Paul Johnson, while Kentucky will play in their first bowl game under Mark Stoops, and their first overall since the 2010 season!
The 'Cats got hot with 5 wins over their last 7 games, including their first outright win in 6 tries over their in-state rival, Louisville. That's all fine and dandy, but the Wildcats did allow over 5 yards per rush this season, and that is going to be trouble against the option Tech employs.
The Yellow Jackets lost just once over their final 6 games, and they did best both Virginia Tech and Georgia on the road in that span. After turning in a dismal 3 win season in 2015, G-Tech has got to be just as pleased if not more so than Kentucky to be back bowl-bound.
At the end of the day, it is my belief that Georgia Tech is the better team, and will indeed cover this small impost.
3* GEORGIA TECH
Bob Valentino
My free play for today is in the other semi-final, as I like the Ohio State Buckeyes to sneak past Clemson for the win and cover.
No sugarcoating it, I love coach Urban Meyer. No current coach who has at least 10 seasons of experience has a better winning percentage than Meyer's .854. And as much respect as I have for Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, I have to give the nod to Meyer, who has won three national championships, including the first College Football Playoff title two years ago.
I'm counting on redshirt freshman Mike Weber to have a big game tonight. He has 1,072 yards rushing for the Buckeyes, and when games get tight them, there's quarterback J.T. Barrett shouldering the burden. Barrett can be just as dangerous, as we saw when he had 92 yards rushing and two touchdowns in a come-from-behind, overtime victory against Wisconsin, and another 125 yards and a touchdown in the double overtime win against Michigan.
When the Buckeyes aren't rushing, there is all-American wideout Curtis Samuel, the only player in the country with at least 800 yards receiving (822 on 65 catches) and 700 rushing (730). Samueal also has 15 touchdowns (eight rushing and seven receiving).
Too much Ohio State tonight.
Deshaun Watson and the Tigers came up just short last year against Alabama, and now they're going to fall short against Ohio State.
1* OHIO STATE
Brett Atkins
Saturday comp play comes in college basketball, as we have a game of the card that may get overlooked due to the college bowl games going on, but this one is a whale of a hoops contest!
13-0 and #1 ranked Villanova heads to Top-10 Creighton to face the 13-0 Blue Jays. One thing is for sure, one of these teams is taking their first loss of the season.
I will side with Villanova to stay unbeaten, as they were obviously looking ahead to this game on Wednesday when they barely beat DePaul as the -24 1/2 point favorite. That same night, Creighton pulled away from a solid Seton Hall team in a home win and cover, but the Jays have lost each of the last 4 series meetings dating back to 2004, and they have only been able to go 1-3 against the spread in the 4 losses.
Going to be a barnburner on the hardwood, but in the end, I shall side with the defending champions to eke-out the win over the Blue Jays.
2* VILLANOVA
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 24-14 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner is on the Wyoming Cowboys in college basketball, laying a point in Las Vegas to the UNLV Rebels.
I'm a little taken back at this line, as I've seen both these teams play - the Rebels several times and Wyoming against USC - and I can tell you that Wyoming is a better basketball team.
The Runnin Rebels hit their home hardwood with an overall mark of 7-7 and 0-1 in Mountain West play after losing to Colorado State on Wednesday by a tally of 91-77. This team will reportedly be without forward Dwayne Morgan, who boasts a team-high 7.3 rebounds per game. Though Morgan is not the team's leading scorer, he might be the team's most complete player.
The Cowboys were just in town less than two weeks ago, for a tournament at the Orleans Arena. And they played to the end against USC. Wyoming (11-3, 1-0 Mountain West) is in after earning an 84-72 win over Air Force on Wednesday in the conference opener, and bring an impressive dossier with it.
The Pokes lead the league and are ranked No. 32 in the nation in total rebounds per game at 40.4. They also lead the league and rank No. 4 in the nation in defensive rebounds per contest at 31.3. Wyoming ranks No. 19 in the country in field goal percentage defense at 37.7, first in the conference and No. 49 in the nation in blocks per game at 5.0.
At the other end of the court, the Cowboys are dangerous offensively, as they lead the league and rank No. 38 in the country in 3-pointers per game at 9.6.
It's New Year's Eve here in Las Vegas, and the Wyoming faithful travel well. The Cowboys are going to give their fans something to celebrate, even more than 2017. Take the road team, which defeats UNLV in Las Vegas for the first time since 2003.
3* WYOMING
Teddy Davis
East Carolina +9½
East Carolina is worth a look here as a big home underdog. SMU was very lucky last time out vs Memphis in covering on the road which is now creating some value here with ECU. This team is 8-1 @ home this season and most of their losses expect for Virginia have been close. SMU does have Temple on deck which is a big conference game. This is a lot of points here to lay with this SMU team.
Chip Chirimbes
Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -3½
There will he helmets clashing in Jacksonville as two prolific running teams but heads. Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson have made 18 consecutive bowl appearances averaging 257.4 yards per game on the ground. Kentucky was third in the SEC rushing with 241.3 yards per contest. When two team both do the same thing as the other I look to see who has done it better longer and that is without a doubt the Yellow Jackets.