Jack Jones
Kentucky/Georgia Tech Over 62
Two of the top rushing offenses in the country will be on display when Georgia Tech takes on Kentucky in the TaxSlayer Bowl. The Yellow Jackets sit 10th nationally with an average of 257.4 yards per game on the ground. The Wildcats rank third in the SEC and 16th in the country with 241.3 yards per game themselves.
This Georgia Tech offense is led by senior Justin Thomas, who passed for 1,454 yards while also rushing for 562 yards this season. He led game-winning drives through the air against both Boston College and Georgia to close out the season. Freshman Dedrick Mills has rushed for 602 yards and 11 touchdowns in only eight games and should be primed for a huge day on the ground.
Kentucky features a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in Stanley Williams (1,135 yards, 7 TD, 7.1/carry) and freshman sensation Benny Snell (1,057 yards, 13 TD, 5.9/carry). Stephen Johnson was a steady hand at the quarterback position with 1,862 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and only six interceptions while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt this season. He did a remarkable job after taking over for Drew Barker.
Kentucky averaged 42.0 points per game in its final three contests. It scored 36 points and racked up 635 total yards in a 36-49 loss to Tennessee. The Wildcats also beat Louisville 41-38 in the season finale while gaining 581 total yards against a very good Cardinals defense.
Since both teams prefer to run the ball, the reason I like the OVER here is that both defenses struggle to stop the run. Kentucky allows 225 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry on the season, while Georgia Tech gives up 174 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry. Kentucky’s opponents only average 190 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry on the season, so it is giving up 35 yards and 0.4 per carry more than they average. Georgia Tech’s opponents average 164 yards per game and 4.3 per carry, so it is giving up 10 yards and 0.5 per carry more.
Kentucky is 7-0 to the OVER in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are also 7-0 to the OVER off an upset win as an underdog. The OVER is 12-4-1 in Yellow Jackets' last 17 non-conference games. The OVER is 4-1 in Wildcats last five vs. ACC opponents. Look for plenty of offensive fireworks in this game Saturday.
Matt Josephs
Houston vs. South Florida
Play: Under 135
South Florida has been lost ever since they found out that star Jahmal McMurray left the program. The Bulls scored 49 and 48 in two of the three games since then. They have had issues all year offensively with Geno Thorpe now having to bring on more of the scoring load. The good thing for them is that they play defense pretty well holding three straight opponents to 60 points or less. Houston is playing just their fourth true road game of the season. They are coming off an impressive 62-46 win at UConn and are currently on a four game streak themselves of holding opponents to 60 points or less. Houston has played six unders in nine lined games including six of eight as a favorite. Last year's last meeting between the two was a 71-62 game. I think this one goes under the total.
Mike Anthony
LSU vs. Louisville
Play: LSU -3
Leonard Fournette is skipping the Citrus Bowl, but he hasn't been 100 percent and Derrius Guice isn't too shabby. He ripped A&M for 285 yards and four TDs in the regular-season finale. Look for the Tigers' defense to contain Lamar Jackson and for the Cardinals to end their once-magical season on a three-game skid.
Frank Jordan
LSU vs. Louisville
Play:Louisville +3
LSU went 7-4 and comes into this game as the 20th team in the nation. LSU started the year 2-2, but since have got 5-2 and went 2-2 in four games against ranked teams. Louisville started off winning four in a row and nine of 10, but lost their last two games at Houston and to Kentucky in the instate rival by three dropping them out of the top five. Louisville has won three of their last four bowl games while LSU is 2-3 in their last five bowl games. Louisville is 1-1 in games against ranked teams beating then #2 FSU by 43 and losing a close one by six at Clemson. LSU relied heavily on the run scoring nearly three times as many rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns and nearly 600 more rushing yards than passing. Louisville's offense is Lamar Jackson who lead the team in rushing yards (1,538), passing yards (3,390), rushing touchdowns (21) and passing touchdowns (30). Look for Lamar Jackson to take over this game and force LSU away from the run and force them to score by picking up big chunks of yardage through the air which won't work as Jackson and Louisville win 40-28.
Zack Cimini
Florida St vs. Virginia
Pick: Florida St
Tony Bennett's Virginia squad took care of Louisville from start to finish to open up ACC play. Saturday, back at home they'll look to showcase their ability against 13-1 Florida State. While Florida State was untested in non-conference play they did defeat Virginia last year. Look for the Seminoles to match the intensity level of Virginia and keep this one closer than the nine point spread suggests.
Jim Feist
Knicks at Rockets
Pick: Over
A pair of teams with plenty of offensive punch but suspect defenses. New York is #25 in the NBA in points allowed, and the Knicks are 4-0 over the total playing on no days rest. Houston will run right at the road weary visitors with James Harden pushing the tempo. And the over is 19-7 in the Rockets last 26 games playing on no days rest.
Harry Bondi
LSU / Louisville Over 59
Led by Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, Louisville averages over 45 points per game and has gone over in eight out of 12 games this season and we see no reason to buck that trend, even against the tough LSU defense. This will be one of the lone teams on the LSU schedule this year that can match their speed, size and quickness, especially since it was a down year for offenses in the SEC, so look for Jackson and Co. to do their fair share of damage. We also expect the LSU offense to crank it up here against a Cardinal defense that allowed 77 points in the last two games of the regular season. Shootout!
David Banks
Ohio St vs. Clemson
Pick: Ohio St. -2.5
The College Football Playoff gets underway on New Year’s Eve and Ohio State will tangle with Clemson in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl in Game 2. The winner will face the winner of the Alabama-Washington
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 9 for the national championship. It is uncanny how similar the Buckeyes and Tigers are to one another. Both have powerful offenses led by dynamic quarterbacks, yet both teams have defenses that are among the nation’s elite. The big difference between the two Fiesta Bowl opponents is how they get it done on offense.
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting and leads the Tigers with 3,914 yards passing and 37 touchdowns. He also is the team’s second-leading rusher with 529 yards. He is as good as it gets at the quarterback position. Running back Wayne Gallman has gained 1,002 yards on the ground and has a team-high 15 rushing touchdowns. Mike Williams is the team’s leading receiver with 84 catches for 1,171 yards and 10 scores.
Ohio State’s offense starts with QB J.T. Barrett who, like Watson, is the Buckeyes second-leading rusher (847 yards). Barrett has 33 total touchdowns. Head coach Urban Meyer’s offense is ninth in the nation in rushing averaging 258.3 yards per game. Mike Weber is the leading rusher with 1,072 yards. The Buckeyes difference maker is hybrid wide receiver-running back Curtis Samuel, the team’s leading receiver with 65 catches for 822 yards. Samuel has also rushed for 704 yards and eight touchdowns.
Clemson is the nation’s seventh-best pass offense averaging 332.6 yards per game. Both teams are very good defensively. Clemson is 12th in scoring defense giving up just 18.4 points per game. Ohio State is even more impressive allowing just 14.2 points per game, third-best in the country.
Buster Sports
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -2.5
The Chicago Bulls come home from a road loss last night in Indiana losing 111-101 and will play a Milwaukee Bucks club that has already beat them twice this month. We will see what the Bulls are made of tonight. In their last game against Milwaukee, the Bucks just totally embarrassed the Bulls in front of their home crowd 95-69. The Bulls shot 30.4% that game and that will not happen tonight. It is a long season in the NBA but there is no doubt that the Bulls have had this game circled since that total beatdown. Milwaukee played last night as well losing in Minnesota 116-99, which makes them losers of 4 out of their last 6 games. The oddsmaker has the line set at 2 1/2 far from the 5 1/2 it was just two weeks ago. Some great value with a revengeful Bull and we will be happy to lay the low number.
Mike Rose
Virginia Tech +4.5
Even though Duke has had ample time off to correct the issues that plagued it before going on break, this is going to be one of their tougher tests of the season. Virginia Tech is playing with loads of confidence right now and has the makeup at both ends of the court to really frustrate the Blue Devils. Keep an eye on Chris Clarke. He just went for 22 points and 12 boards versus UMBC to log either a double-double or triple-double for a third straight game. He did it in a variety of ways dropping dimes from long range and taking it to the rack.
The Hokies were throttled in Cameron last season 82-58 in a game the Blue Devils easily covered the near 20 point chalk in. While Duke has gone 3-0 straight up and 2-1 ATS in its last three visits to Blacksburg, it needed overtime to escape with a 91-86 win in its most recent trip. Though the Hokies schedule leaves cause for concern, look for VTECH to challenge the Dookies right from the opening tip and be an inhospitable host all game long.
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Saturday is on Virginia Tech plus the points against the Duke Blue Devils in college basketball.
I'm not getting too deep into this - it's a free play after all - but I do think the Hokies have a shot in this one.
While No. 5 Duke steals headlines everywhere it goes, Virginia Tech deserves some attention too, as it's produced an 11-1 record through its non-conference schedule, and rolls into this sold out matchup at Cassell Coliseum having won seven in a row. The Hokies will be ready for this game, especially with the Blue Devils filing into town without preseason all-American Grayson Allen.
Duke hasn't played since Allen's tripping incident, and there's no telling how the chemistry will be. From what I can tell, the Blue Devils are still adjusting to roles, and while they seem to be evolving, the absence of Allen means they have to make more adjustments. On the other hand, the Hokies will be 100 percent focused. Virginia Tech also comes in riding a 13-game homecourt winning streak.
Give me the home pup.
4* VIRGINIA TECH
SPORTS WAGERS
Alabama -13½ over Washington
Chris Petersen has taken this Huskies team on a meteoric rise that mirrored his tenure at Boise State. Petersen was the skipper of the Broncos team that marched into the 2007 Tostito’s Fiesta Bowl and pulled off what could be considered one of the greatest upsets in college football history (and greatest games) when his undefeated Broncos took down a perennial heavyweight in Oklahoma. The term “BCS Buster” originates from Petersen propelling the Broncos to do the unthinkable, as it had been the second time a non-BCS Conference Champion had achieved success against a BCS Conference constituent in a BCS Bowl Game. However, the first chapter was an undefeated Utah Utes coming out of the Mountain West Conference to thrash a three-loss Pittsburgh team that had to fill a bowl position from the now defunct Big East. The circumstances were entirely different surrounding the Utah and Boise State victories.
Some suspect Petersen can equip the Huskies with the slingshot to take down this Goliath of college football. When it is factored in that the Huskies looked quite impressive in their rout of #10 Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship Game, the hype and fanfare is bound to be that much greater, as UW has made the Pac-12 look inferior to them for the most part all season long. We have seen this market up to 15 points but now a steady stream of action on UW has diminished the number to less than two touchdowns, potentially opening the door for a value play on the gold standard of college football.
Alabama needs no introductions. Typically, we would expect to pay a hefty premium to back the Tide in any game, whether it be a divisional game, a conference championship or even the College Football Playoff. However, the perceived inflated asking price of the Tide has prompted a reaction from the public to dive in on Washington with the points and as a result that premium is actually nullified for once.
Washington plays a physical and rugged style of defense that has convincingly shut down some of the Pac 12’s most dynamic offenses, including Stanford, Washington State and the aforementioned Colorado. However, after watching some of these Pac-12 teams play in Bowl Games already this year, (Colorado, Washington State and Stanford), anything that anyone did against them defensively is greatly diminished.
Besides that, the Huskies have not faced a team like Alabama who has rendered America’s revered conference in to a modern rendition of Alabama and the 13 dwarves. Alabama has made the SEC as a whole it’s whipping boys for many seasons now and very rarely do SEC teams even get a chance to beat this outfit. Against out-of-conference foes, Alabama’s last loss was against Ohio State in the 2014 College Football Playoff. While Washington may have had a storied year and an impressive effort, we have an opportunity to take the Tide at a reduced price due to this market not wanting to spot a team like the Huskies so much weight. Nick Saban respects every opponent he faces and he is astute to what Petersen and this Washington team is capable of probably more than anyone. The preparation and the focus will be at maximum against this Huskies team. The Huskies better be about 100 times better than every other Pac-12 team we saw this Bowl season, otherwise they are going to get their asses handed to them too. We’re suggesting that UW isn’t as good as advertised either and a well-prepped and rarely underpriced Tide team will prove us right.
Ohio State -1½ over Clemson
The night-cap of the College Football Playoff features two teams that are quite familiar with this type of environment. The Clemson Tigers came in last year as the #1 team in the country, ultimately losing an instant classic against this year’s #1 team and defending champion Alabama. For Ohio State, the Buckeyes have not been to the College Football Playoff in two years but the last game they played here was when they crushed a then #2 Oregon in route to a National Championship. In this distinct scenario, the #3 team is favored to beat the #2 team. The irony of it all is that Clemson is the two-time defending ACC Champion while Ohio State comes in as the quintessential Wild Card, failing to win their division. Undoubtedly the Buckeyes losing to Clemson in the 2014 Orange Bowl serves as a prelude to dissension with this current line, as the Tigers defeated the Buckeyes 40-35 in said fixture.
Normally we would rub our eyes and second guess such a proposition but the fact remains that Ohio State under the captainship of Urban Meyer has had more success in this format than the Tigers have. In the inaugural College Football Playoff, Ohio State defeated a #1 ranked Alabama in the semifinal where they erased a deficit of 15 points to come back and win the game on the heels of Ezekiel Elliot, Cardale “12 Gauge” Jones and Devin Smith. However, the incumbent starter J.T. Barrett was present on the sideline when these events unfolded. Let us quickly rehash the chain of events leading up to this. Barrett (the current starter) had stepped in for the initial starter at QB in Braxton Miller then as a result of injuries, Jones carried Ohio State on his back to win the Big 10 Championship when they blew out Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship 59-0 and the rest is history.
The point we are trying to make here is that some players that remain on the Ohio State roster remember this sequence of events. Ohio State went from a team on the outside looking-in, to King of the Hill over the span of three games and such is a testament to the coaching of the Meyer regime and his players buying in to the “Next-Man Up” philosophy. We do not even need to concern ourselves with that in this situation. What we have here is a well-oiled machine that barring a hiccup on the road at Penn State (as a result of a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown) put together an impressive docket of performances. Ohio State found ways to win whether it be when they were trailing by 10 against its arch rival, a then ranked #3 Michigan or when they were in a dogfight with #8 Wisconsin. The Bucks also took down the Big 12 Champion #7 Oklahoma on the road, tarred and feathered a 10-win Tulsa team and obliterated yet another top-10 ranked team when Nebraska came to town on November 5th. Their résumé speaks for itself and it is stronger than Clemson’s.
The Tigers deserve all the credit in the world for beating the two best teams in the ACC besides them. However, the Tigers beat Louisville and Virginia Tech by a touchdown or less in each of these affairs while their vaunted defense gave up at least 35 points to both enemies. This same Clemson team also required slim margins to defeat both Auburn and Troy to kick off the regular season as well. Clemson is not as dominant against good teams as Ohio State has illustrated on several occasions and they also had a nasty dizzy spell when they lost 43-42 at home against Pitt as a 21½-point favorite. Immediately, the notion that the Tigers are getting points seems very appealing and we can understand why. The Tigers started the year on a playoff mission, whereas the Buckeyes started the year trying to forge an identity and ended a drama-filled thrill ride of a season with an epically tense, draining victory over the best team its hated rival has fielded in a decade. However, when the Ohio State coaching staff has all that film and a month to prepare and we have a chance to get on board while they are short-priced, we will do just that. Furthermore, if turnovers play a role in the outcome and they usually do, Clemson turned it over 24 times this year, including five times versus Louisville, four times versus NC State and three times in the loss to Pitt.
Scott Rickenbach
Delaware vs Hofstra
Play: Delaware
This line opened up with Hofstra -3 but is now all the way up to a -6 in some spots this morning. I completely understand the move as Delaware is coming off of a 7-23 season and Hofstra has been hammering the Blue Hens in recent meetings. However, the Pride could be a little “rusty” here as they haven’t played since the 22nd. Conversely, Delaware got back in action, after the Christmas break, by crushing Iona on Wednesday. The Blue Hens were a double digit dog in that game and won the game outright…very nearly by double digits as it ended up a 19 points cover for Delaware. Certainly the Blue Hens have a ways to go but they are still under-valued at this point so far this season. Keep in mind they are 7-6 on the year so they’ve already equaled last season’s win total. A big key has been a couple of key contributors that were not expected to be as “ready” as they have been. Freshman guard Ryan Daly is their leading scorer and Chivarsky Corbett has returned from an ACL injury and been a solid contributor as well. These players have joined returning starters Cazmon Hayes and Anthony Mosley and George Washington transfer Darian Bryant to give Delaware a strong core group of 5 players all capable of scoring double digits in each game. Corbett did miss Wednesday’s game but is probable for this afternoon’s game. The Blue Hens are 5-0 SU at home this season and also 3-0 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Pride are on a 7-14 ATS run in games with posted total in the 140s. Also, Hofstra is 1-4 SU their last 5 when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games.
Brandon Lee
Knicks vs. Rockets
Play: Rockets -10
Houston is the real deal and I have no problem laying double-digits on the Rockets at home against a Knicks team that's not playing well and in a tough spot. New York has lost 3 straight and are just 2-6 in their last 8 overall. They will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. On top of that, it's not a great matchup for the Knicks, as they don't defend all that well, as they are giving up 109.4 ppg on the road. Houston already won 118-99 at New York earlier this season and had 68 in the first half. I see a very similar outcome here.
Dave Price
Ohio State vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson +1.5
Wrong team favored here. The Clemson Tigers have that playoff experience after beating Oklahoma and falling just short against Alabama last year in the title game. I think that experience will be a difference-maker in this game as Deshaun Watson and company are used to this playoff pressure. The Buckeyes are a very young team who are fortunate to be here. The Big Ten is overrated as a whole, and the Buckeyes went just 2-6 ATS in their final 8 games of the season with several narrow wins, and that loss to Penn State. Dabo Swinney is the real deal, guiding Clemson to four victories in their last five bowl games despite being underdogs in all 5 of them. They have gone 5-0 ATS in those games, and they came against national powers like LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama and Ohio State. The Tigers have a decisive edge on offense in this game, and the defenses are pretty equal.