Free Picks for Saturday, December 3rd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Allen Eastman
Arkansas State (-22) over Texas State
I expect a blowout. Just like I expect a blowout with this free play. Arkansas State dominated Texas State last year in a similar situation. They were 24-point favorites and won by 38 points (55-17). Arkansas State will be angry after losing to UL-Lafayette last week. Before that they had won and covered the spread in six straight games. Texas State hasn't beaten a Division I team since the opener. Their last win was on Oct. 1 against Incarnate Word. They have not stayed within 24 points of anyone in their last five games. The Red Wolves are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 league games and Texas Sate is 1-7 ATS against teams with a winning record.
Strike Point Sports
Alabama (-24) over Florida
Vegas keeps throwing monster lines at Alabama and they keep covering. The Tide have covered five of their last six lines, and you actually get them coming off an ATS loss here. Check and mate. The Tide control both sides of the football and will grind down the Gators until there is nothing left. Alabama has given up double-figure points in only half of their games this season, and outside of shootouts with Arkansas and Ole Miss they haven't given up more than two touchdowns in a game. I know this is a huge number, but if you really think about it, it should be. Look for Bama to jump on the Gators early and never look back. Tide roll 41-10.
Robert Ferringo
Rice (+12) over Texas Tech
The Owls are one of the most vastly improved teams in the country this season. Last year this group won just 10 games against D-I teams and was not competitive in most of its nonconference affairs. The Owls have already won five games, they have vaulted up from a No. 275 ranking last year to a No. 110 ranking this season, and this group will be ready to take a shot at an in-state rival. Rice has a dynamic backcourt with Marcus Evans and Marcus Jackson, and this team can make shots from all over. Texas Tech has gotten off to a very good start under new coach Chris Beard. But they have done so against a comically easy schedule. They have played only two teams rated in the same tier as Rice, and they lost one of those games outright. The Red Raiders don't have any big games until Big 12 play starts at the end of December. I think that they are going to have waning enthusiasm and that they will be a little erratic over the next several weeks. The Red Raiders will likely hammer Incarnate Word on Wednesday - after a 33-point win last week against feeble Idaho State - and that might make them put their guard down a little against Rice. I think that this game means more to the visitors and I think that Rice will battle for the full 40, making this number stand up.
Alan Harris
New Mexico St / South Alabama Over 58
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the New Mexico State Aggies hit the road to take on the South Alabama Jaguars at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL on Saturday afternoon. New Mexico St has posted an 8-1 record to the over in their last nine road games where they faced a team with a losing record at home and they have gone an excellent 20-5-1 to the over in their last 26 road games overall. They have also gone 13-5-1 to the over in their last nineteen games following a double-digit loss at home and they have gone up and over the number in seven of their last nine games versus a team with a record of .500 or worse. The Jaguars have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 4-1-1 to the over in their last six games following an ATS loss and they have gone an excellent 9-3-1 to the over in their last thirteen home games. Throw in the fact that the Aggies have gone 35-14-2 to the over in their last 51 games over their last five seasons or so and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into a shootout in Alabama on Saturday afternoon.
Oskeim Sports
Kansas State vs, TCU
Play: Kansas St +4.5
The Horned Frogs are coming off a 31-9 upset win over a dysfunctional Texas squad to secure bowl eligibility. That win as a three-point underdog highlights the fact that head coach Gary Patterson is a money-burning 2-10 ATS following an upset road win during his tenure in Fort Worth.
Kansas State enters its regular-season finale having won four of its last 5 games, including consecutive wins by double-digit margins.
I have a profound level of respect for Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder, and I have no hesitation in backing him once again based upon his 45-22 ATS record versus conference opponents and his 30-18 ATS mark as an underdog.
Snyder is also a remarkable 26-9 ATS as a conference underdog after failing to cover the point spread in his previous game and 7-2 ATS in season finales versus teams off a SU and ATS win, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when the Wildcats take the field with a .401 of greater win percentage.
Let's also note that Kansas State is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog of less than a touchdown, 8-2 ATS on the road when playing with conference revenge and 19-7-1 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record.
Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have failed to meet market expectations all season as evidenced by their 3-8 ATS record overall, including 2-6 ATS in conference play and 0-6 ATS at home.
The Horned Frogs' issue at home has been poor defensive play where they have allowed 35.3 points and 440 total yards per game at 5.7 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point.
TCU's stop unit has also yielded 454 total yards in its last three games and 432 total yards in conference action. The Wildcats arrive in town with a surging attack that is averaging 37.7 points and 429 total yards at 5.9 yards per play and 11.4 yards per points over the last four weeks.
I also like to invest on quality underdogs that possess a solid ground game, and the Wildcats are averaging 224 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry this season. That ground attack has averaged an impressive 308 yards at 5.6 yards per rush attempt over the last four weeks.
The Horned Frogs' only two wins at home this season came against South Dakota State (59-41) and Iowa State (41-20), and Kansas State is better than both of those teams. TCU has lost four straight home games (two of which came as a double-digit favorite), including its most recent home tilt against a subpar Texas Tech squad (27-24; 10-point favorite).
Finally, TCU running back Kyle Hicks left the Texas game with a rib injury, while quarterback Kenny Hill left the same game early in the fourth quarter with as foot injury. Both are listed as questionable for Saturday's season-finale.
With TCU standing at 2-8 ATS in its last ten games as a favorite, grab the points with one of the best football coaches in the game.
Bryan Leonard
UL-Lafayette vs. UL-Monroe
Play: UL-Lafayette -6½
Big rivalry game in the state of Louisiana with the Ragin' Cajuns winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. We really feel this Lafayette team has been under the radar all season long. While 6-4 ATS is a solid number it's how this team has been able to win that has us excited. It's rare when a team is so good that it can lose the turnover battle and still cover the spread. The best team in the country in doing that is the Ragin' Cajuns. This team is a perfect 4-0 on the year ATS when losing the turnover battle, second best in the country is Alabama at 4-1. Even more amazing is in those four games the turnover deficit was -7. Covers by 3 1/2. 1, 13 1/2 and 7 1/2 show that this team is under the radar.
Looking at explosive plays on the season ULL is -0.4 per game while ULM is 2/4 per contest. Over the last four weeks the Ragin' Cajuns are +23 over the Warhawks. History suggests this will be a tight contest, but we strongly differ. ULL in a blowout.
Ben Burns
Oklahoma St vs. Oklahoma
Play: Under 77
With all due respect to the offenses, which are obviously both very capable, this number is awfully high. To give some perspective, last season's meeting had an O/U line of 62.5. The previous year, the O/U line for a game between these teams had an O/U line of 57.5. Granted, both those lines turned out to be too low, as each game finished above the total.
The Cowboys limited TCU to a mere six points last time out, a dominant defensive effort. The Sooners weren't as stingy but weren't terrible defensively either; they held WVU to 28 points. Not bad considering that the Mountaineers came in averaging 32.6 ppg and 506.8 ypg at home.
Even including the 12/6/14 meeting between these teams here, which produced 71 points, the Sooners have seen the "under" go 16-4 their last 20 games played in the month of December. A look at some more recent history reveals that the Cowboys were underdogs of greater than a field goal three times this season. All three of those games (at TCU, vs. WVU and at Baylor) fell below the number by double-digits.
Alex Smart
Oklahoma St vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma St +11½
The Bedlam rivalry game between seventh-ranked Oklahoma Sooners (9-2, 8-0 Big 12) and their instate rivals Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-2, 7-1) goes this Saturday afternoon .It marks the second straight year that the Bedlam game will determine the Big 12 championship. The Sooners won 58-23 in last year's regular-season finale in Stillwater and now the Cowboys will be out for revenge .The road team has won each of the last three Bedlam games and the last two in Norman have gone to overtime, and Im expecting another rinse and repeat performance here with the points proving to be golden.
OKLAHOMA is 9-2 ATS L/11 when playing against a team with a winning record and have covered 9 of their L/11 vs teams that outcore their opponents by 10 points or more like the Sooners have. Oklahoma State is 20-8 ATS L/28 in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63.
Power Sports
UL Lafayette vs. UL Monroe
Pick: UL Monroe
Through the records out here as it's a rivalry game and the home team is getting points. Admittedly, it has not been a great year down in Monroe, but the Warhawks have covered three straight and can cost their rival a shot at bowl eligibility. Recall last Saturday night, I had a somewhat similar play w/ UMass, the beneficiaries of an inflated line against Hawaii, who was seeking their elusive 6th win. Same deal here. Take the points.
Adding to the Warhawks' motivation is the fact they are just 1-7 SU the L8 years against UL Lafayette (now forever known as "Louisiana"). But the last three games, including their one win, have all been decided by seven points or less. So that makes the points certainly seem appetizing here as well. Additionally, the Warhawks benefit from having had last week off. In November, they twice won a game outright in which they were the dog. One of those took place here at home, against South Alabama, getting 9.5.
Louisiana is off a narrow win over Arkansas State (24-19) as six-point home underdogs themselves. But the Ragin Cajuns were outgained in that game, 521-292. The defense was able to stop Arkansas State on fourth down on each of the final two possessions and really won the game w/ a pick-six in the first quarter. Ending Arkansas State's 15-game win streak in the Sun Belt is quite an achievement, but the Cajuns did so despite a 28-15 deficit in first downs. A win is all they need here, not one by any kind of margin. Speaking of margins, the favorite here has only one win by more than eight points - all season - to its credit. They lost outright, as a favorite, at New Mexico State earlier this year. They've been outscored and outgained over the course of the season.
Brandon Powell
Temple vs. Navy
Play: Navy -2½
Navy has been close to unstoppable on offense since the Houston win. They have scored at least 42 points 6 of their last 7 games. Temple looks to be without key running back Ryquell Armstead who is has rushed for more than 800 yards this season. Starting quarterback Phillip Walker will probably play, but he will not be 100%. These injuries will impact Temples offense. I expect this to be a great showdown of Navy offense vs Temple defense. I expect Navy to grind out a win by at least 7 points.
John Ryan
Florida vs. Alabama
Play: Florida +24
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Florida is a solid 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games; 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. Alabama is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Florida takes on Alabama in the SEC Championship Game getting a big number for a reason. The Gator Defense has been solid all year giving up only 14.6 points per game and we expect the Defense to play well enough to keep them hanging around in this one. The key will be to keep Alabama QB Jalen Hurts from beating them with his legs. Austin Appleby is a below average QB but he does not make many plays or mistakes and that will be a big part in keeping this one within the large spread listed in this one. We look for the Gators to be chomping for a little while in this one.
DAVE COKIN
MERCER AT GEORGE MASON
PLAY: MERCER +3
First, a little on the scheduling dynamics. There’s no way to be sure a team is ever going to come out a little flat, as it’s really just a judgement call. But there is some of that opinion involved here, which I’ll explain later.
I like looking for value dogs based on some key numbers that I weigh fairly heavily when doing matchup analysis. Those numbers favor Mercer here.
I also like it when I can grab points with a team I’m confident will be able to play the game at the pace they prefer. Mercer cannot play fast and when things speed up, the Bears get in trouble. That should not be an issue. Virtually everyone plays faster than Mercer, but George Mason generally likes to work the clock and show patience while looking for a good shot. They pretty much have to, as the Patriots are shooting at horrible from the outside.
There’s a revenge motive for George Mason as they lost the season opener last year at Mercer and blew a pretty big second half lead in the process. But the Patriots are also off what I would call a major upset earlier this week as they went on the road and stunned Northern Iowa. I won’t call it a system play, but fading favorites off double digit dog upsets isn’t the worst strategy of all time.
George Mason has won four straight, so maybe I’m underrating them to some extent. But the available data indicates they’re still nothing more than a run of the mill entry and I actually still have the Bears rated higher than George Mason. I think there’s enough here to justify taking the points with Mercer.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas State vs. TCU
Play: Kansas St +3½
The Wildcats have this one circled with home loss revenge and catch TCU off a big win over Texas. A role in which the Frogs have struggled going 1-7 ats off a Long horn encounter. TCU is 0-6 ats at home and K-St is 4-0 as a dog of 6.5 or less and has covered 8 of the last 10 with conference revenge. Look for Kansas St to at the very least get the cover.
Brandon Lee
Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -11
The perception here is that this is way too many points for Oklahoma to be laying against their in-state rivals with the Big 12 title on the line. The betting public is jumping all over the Cowboys and the points, as I'm showing more than 60% of the bets coming in on Oklahoma State. The fact that this line has stayed over the key number of 10, tells me the books are confident that all that money on the Cowboys is going to a wasted cause, as they see the Sooners winning here in a blowout. I completely agree. Oklahoma is without a doubt the best team in the Big 12 and had it not been for them playing both Houston and Ohio State in non-conference play, they would be in the 4-team playoff. It would be one thing if this game was being played in Oklahoma State, but it's not. Oklahoma has too much offensive fire-power and I'm not sold on the Cowboys being able to keep pace on the road.