John Ryan
Florida vs. Alabama
Play: Florida +24
Technical Discussion Points: The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Florida is a solid 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game; 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games; 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss. Alabama is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Fundamental Discussion Points: Florida takes on Alabama in the SEC Championship Game getting a big number for a reason. The Gator Defense has been solid all year giving up only 14.6 points per game and we expect the Defense to play well enough to keep them hanging around in this one. The key will be to keep Alabama QB Jalen Hurts from beating them with his legs. Austin Appleby is a below average QB but he does not make many plays or mistakes and that will be a big part in keeping this one within the large spread listed in this one. We look for the Gators to be chomping for a little while in this one.
Matt Josephs
Rice vs. Texas Tech
Play: Rice +12½
Texas Tech has been crushing their opponents at home so far this season. The Red Raiders have won by 21, 33, 19, 27 and 26 at home against a lot lesser competition. Their only loss was by two against Auburn in Cancun. To me, it's important to check the status of Aaron Ross before the game as he's the team leading scorer. Rice has won five straight and has road wins over JMU, Incarnate Word and Nebraska-Omaha. The Owls have Marcus Jackson and Marcus Evans who are both very good. Rice has been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points seven times the last three seasons and have covered six of those. Texas Tech has covered just 30 of their last 61 games overall.
DWAYNE BRYANT
BAYLOR AT WEST VIRGINIA
PLAY: WEST VIRGINIA -17
The Baylor Bears come into this 3:30 PM ET Saturday showdown in Morgantown having lost five straight games (SU and ATS) since a 6-0 start to the season. They were favored in all but one of those five defeats.
Baylor just has the look of a team that has packed it in. After five straight subpar performances, why should we expect anything different in this one?
West Virginia is coming off a 49-19 blowout win over Iowa State. The Mountaineers have plenty of motivation heading into this game.
West Virginia can match the school record with an 11-win season if they beat Baylor and win their bowl game.
Secondly, it's the final home game for the seniors. The last time they were on their home field they were getting blasted by Oklahoma, 56-28. They obviously want to leave their home field for the last time in victorious fashion.
Lastly, the Mountaineers have revenge for a 62-38 beating they took at Baylor last season. Embarrassment is a strong motivator, so West Virginia will be happy to run it up. "We all know what this one means," defensive coordinator Tony Gibson told The Dominion Post. "We know what Baylor brings. We've had December 3, 2016 marked down for a long time."
With Baylor looking DOA and the Mountaineers having multiple reasons to "bring it," I recommend laying it with WEST VIRGINIA.
BUSTER SPORTS
VIRGINIA TECH VS CLEMSON
PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH +10
The Clemson Tigers and the Virginia Tech Hokies are going to meet in Orlando for the ACC Championship game on Saturday. This game means everything to the Clemson Tigers as they try and hang on to their position in the College Football Playoff. As for the Hokies they come into this game ranked 19th in the AP 25 and with the upset can take a 10-3 record to the Orange Bowl. This will be more than enough incentive for first year coach Justin Fuente who has this Hokie team playing some very good football. If the upset can happen, it will because of the great defensive mind of Bud Foster who can put a game plan together to stop/control any offense even one as good as Clemson. The hard part for Virginia Tech is they are playing a complete club in the Tigers. Clemson is ranked 8th in total defense in yards allowed and they are 12th in total offense. No doubt a complete club. If Virginia Tech have the chance to get the upset they will need their 19th ranked defense in total yards to play lights out. There also might be a few other reasons to give Virginia Tech hope. One is that nasty word of "PRESSURE". It is all on the Tigers and the Hokies will be playing loose and that will be the message Fuente and Foster will give their squad. Also knowing that Pitt beat Clemson and also that NC State probably should of beat Clemson gives the Hokies a feeling that the upset is not impossible by any means. We tend to agree and will gladly take the 10 points the oddsmaker has given us. With the Underdog being 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the clubs, this just solidifies our selection.
MIKE ROSE
FLORIDA VS ALABAMA
PLAY: UNDER 41
Every time I’ve counted the Gators out this season, they did something to shock me. Even with a rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, they went into Baton Rouge and handled LSU as 14 point underdogs. While they gave up their fair share of yardage, they bent but didn’t break. It’s been like this in Gainesville a couple years now, and I foresee McElwain’s kids putting their best foot forward once again in this revenge spot against the #1 ranked Crimson Tide in the title game.
The Gators found a way to cover last year’s matchup, but did so by kicking in the backdoor late. They were outgained 437-180, and while UF’s offense continues to stink out loud, I expect the defense to at the very least keep this one respectable. I’m not expecting Hurts and company to do much through the air versus Florida’s No. 4 ranked pass defense, so Bama will be forced to resort to a ground attack that will be forced to earn it against the Gators stingy unit.
As good as Florida’s defense is, Bama’s is better. It’s conceded 10 or less points in eight of its 12 overall games, and could possibly limit the Gators punchless offense to less than 200 total yards once again. Either way, yards are going to have to be earned on both sides and neither of these stop units will be in giving moods. While the over has cashed in each of these team’s last three meetings, that won’t be the case in what’s shaping up to be an ugly defensive white knuckled brawl from the opening kick.
Bruce Marshall
Georgia St +6.5
Bowl-eligible Idaho is in the midst of one of its best stretches in years, with three straight wins, and six straight covers. But the pointspreads on the Vandals have been rising, as Idaho is a secret no more. Meanwhile, Georgia State is in its high-percentage role of visiting dog (19-4 last 23). Since transfer QB Conner Manning returned to the Panther lineup from injury three games ago, he has passed for 977 yards, with 6 TDs vs. 2 interceptions.
Chris Jordan
I'm going to play the South Alabama as my free pick for you on Saturday, despite the Jaguars being a big dinged up, as I think they're going to handle visiting New Mexico State easily.
By my recollection, the Jags have been dealing with injuries since camp broke in last spring, and their resiliency has been their most impressive attribute. They've lost 10 players, including seven who start, and yet South Alabema (5-6) is a team that with a win today would become bowl eligible.
And quite frankly, considering the close losses, this team could possibly have seven wins, and be 7-4. A lack of depth at times has been more of the issue, than heart and determination.
So, why not take the Aggies (3-8 ), against beleaguered USA? Simple, they're just not a good football team, and close out the season with a tough trip after losing five of six - including a 37-7 thumping at the hands of Appalachian State last week, when they were outgained 608-240 yards.
Also, New Mexico State hasn't won a game on the highway, where it is being outscored by nearly 30 points, having allowed a staggering 50.0 points per road game. For the season, the Aggies are yielding 39.2 points per game.
Finally, since NMSU starting quarterback Tyler Rogers is doubtful, I'm not so sure the Aggies even threaten the red zone in this contest. The passing game is this team's only hope, and now that has been diminished.
With a bowl berth as motivation, the Jaguars will score often, and run wild against New Mexico State all game. Lay the chalk.
5* SOUTH ALABAMA
Bob Valentino
I like the Idaho Vandals to manhandle the Georgia State Panthers, who end the season with a tough road trip against a scrappy bowl-bound squad.
Idaho - which is 7-4 on the year, both SU and ATS - has had a sketchy scoring defense all season, allowing 31.4 points per game. But the Vandals are allowing a mere 19.3 points per contest over their last three. They come into this one with a 31.5 scoring average at home, where they've gained an average of 416.5 yards per contest.
Idaho has won three in a row after topping Louisiana-Lafayette by 10, Texas State by 33 and South Alabama by 7, last week. The Vandals have covered six in a row, after failing at the books in three of their first four weeks.
Make note Idaho played the likes of Washington and Washington State to start the season, won at UNLV and have won five of the last six game.
I don't think we'll get much out of Georgia State, which has lost three of its last four games. The Panthers have allowed 30.7 points in their last three, and on the road they're averaging a mere 13 points per game.
Take the home team here.
4* IDAHO
Brett Atkins
A quick history lesson in this Conference USA rivalry between visiting Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky, as the 2014 meeting saw the Bulldogs at home crush the Hilltoppers, 59-10. Last year, the Hilltoppers at home won a see-saw, 41-38 affair as the +2 1/2 point dog. This season it was Louisiana Tech claim another taut three-pointer, 55-52 as home underdog of +2 1/2.
Based on the past pair of affairs, it makes you wonder why Western Kentucky is laying this many points - even at home!?!?
True, La Tech did drop a 39-24 affair at Southern Miss their last time out, but I don't think they will need any extra motivation to get up for Western in this conference title tilt. Western Kentucky has won 6 straight since their loss to the Bulldogs, but they have played some lesser competition along the way as well.
Just having a hard time finding a reason to pass on these points, especially with Louisiana Tech sporting a fine 9-2 spread mark (3-1 this season) when listed in the underdog role.
If this is a "sucker line", then call me the sucker for taking a shot with the Bulldogs and the points to make this the third straight series meeting that goes right down to the wire.
Take the points.
3* LOUISIANA TECH
Brad Wilton
Biggest total of the weekend goes in this Conference USA Championship Game between high-octane Louisiana Tech, and just as high-octane Western Kentucky.
You know what? I still say to play the Over.
This year's regular season meeting saw 102 combined points, and last year's meeting saw 79 combined points. Both of those games went Over the total.
The Bulldogs had played 6 straight Overs prior to their regular season finale at Southern Miss which did hold Under the posted price.
The Hilltoppers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the total, and keep in mind that both schools are among the highest-scoring in the nation, as both come in with an average of 44 points per game.
It's going to take a lot of scoring to land Over the total, but if there are two teams capable of doing just that, these would be the two.
Bulldogs-Hilltoppers Over the total.
2* LOUISIANA TECH-WESTERN KENTUCKY OVER
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Saturday is on the Temple Owls, plus the points against the Navy Midshipmen, as the two battle for the AAC Championship in Annapolis. And though this game is on Navy's field, I think Temple is probably the better team on the whole, and will get the best of the Middies today.
The thing I notice most with this game are the defensive units, as Navy allows a lot more points - even at home - than the Owls.
Temple, which comes in having won six straight games, is giving up 17.8 points per contest on the year, while it is giving up 18.6 while traveling. Over their last three contests, the Owls' stop unit is peaking, allowing an average of just 3.3 points in those games.
Meanwhile, Navy gives up 30.1 points per game, 29.6 points at home and a whopping 34 in its last three.
During their six-game streak, the Owls have won the last five by double digits - an average margin of 23.2 points per win. And while the Middies have won four in a row, I can't trust that defense one bit.
Take Temple, as it wins this game outright.
1* TEMPLE
Brad Wilton
Exactly one year ago Kentucky visited Los Angeles for a date with UCLA. On that day, the Bruins won an 87-77 decision as the +6 1/2 home point home underdog.
Today? The Uclans are once again the underdog as they hit the court at the Rupp Arena against John Calipari's #1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats.
Both teams are undefeated, so someone is taking their first loss today in the Bluegrass State.
Will give Kentucky the advantage since they are playing this one at home, but Steve Alford's team can put the round ball through the hoop, so I am quite interested in grabbing the 4 baskets or so the invaders from Los Angeles are getting this afternoon.
Should be a good early season throwdown at Rupp, and a close one as well.
Take UCLA plus the points.
1* UCLA
Matt Fargo
Wisc Green Bay vs. Toledo
Play: Toledo -5.5
It has been a rough start to the season for both Green Bay and Toledo, two teams which are expected to contend in their respective conferences. The Phoenix are coming off a pair of blowout losses and they hit the road again where they are 1-2. The lone victory was at Bowling Green, a weak team from the MAC while two losses came by 18 and 19 points. Green Bay has struggled on offense, shooting just 39.2 percent from the floor including a poor 29 percent from long range. Toledo is also off to a 3-4 and it heads home for just its second game at Savage Hall. The Rockets played in the Challenge in Music city where they went 1-2, playing three games in three days. They were blown out by UNC-Wilmington in the final game of the tournament but they were coming off a pair of overtime games, one in double overtime, so they simply ran out of gas. Toledo has faced a schedule in which its opponents have posted a combined 29-15 (.659) win-loss mark. According to CBS Sports Jerry Palm, it has faced the 18th-strongest schedule in the country and is No. 66 in his RPI rankings. The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing straight up record.
Frank Jordan
Temple vs. Navy
Play: Navy -2.5
Temple and Navy each won nine games on the year and went 7-1 in conference play as they square off in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. Temple lost two of their first three games to start the season, but finished 8-1 including each of their last seven games. Navy opened with three wins, split the next four and finished with wins in their last four games. Navy is second in the nation in rushing yards with 342. Temple balances out run and pass, but does more of their scoring on the ground (29 rushing touchdowns and 18 passing touchdowns. Look for Navy to control the line of scrimmage and be effective rushing the ball winning 28-24.
Freddy Wills
Florida vs. Alabama
Play: Florida +24
This is a great opportunity for the Gators says head coach Jim McElwain. I don’t see them winning this game. The injuries on the defensive side of the ball are just too much to overcome. However, I do see Nick Saban and Alabama running the ball a lot. They do not want Jalen Hurts throwing and making mistakes in this game against a talented secondary. That means this game should be shortened enough to the point where Florida loses by less than 24. If you like this play I also recommend taking the under, because if Florida does cover like I think they will the under should cash as well.