SPORTS WAGERS
LOYOLA CHICAGO +5½ over San Diego St
The Ramblers have been a hidden gem for most of the season so far as they have gone 3-1 ATS while posting a 6-2 record overall. Loyola Chicago by no means should be classed as a run of the mill middle-tier featherweight that happens to snack on mediocre competition. This is an outfit that defeated Washington State in an Invitational Tournament play by a margin of nine points despite being a dog against the Cougars. Loyola Chicago was just a three-point shot away from taking down a viable ACC foe in N.C. State in which the Ramblers took the Pack the distance as a 10½-point pup last Saturday in Raleigh.
In reviewing the numbers for Loyola and N.C. State, the Ramblers should have probably won that game. The Ramblers went cold at the worst point imaginable in the game to allow State to take a lead, despite shooting over 50% in both field-goals and three-pointers. Loyola led by as much as nine points and despite some cold streaks, the Pack could never truly put away a team they were forecasted to have their way with.
Enter San Diego State, who comes in shooting 38.4% from the field, which is in contrast to the efficient marksmanship of the Ramblers, who hit 48.7% from the field. Its simple math, if both teams shoot as expected, Loyola can bury San Diego State. In addition, San Diego State is colder than a Canadian winter when they are away from home, as they hit just 28% of their shots from the field and 23% specifically from beyond the arc. The numbers translate to what would be expected. San Diego State’s one loss this year came on the road at Gonzaga where they were smoked by 21 points. Outside of a win at home against Cal, the Aztecs have more or less taken target practice against weak opponents but now they have to fly across two time zones to face off with a team that has gone toe-to-toe with premium competitors on the road or in tournament scenarios. Let us also add that Loyola’s other loss this year was in a Virgin Islands-based early season tournament against St. Joe’s, a reputable and perennial Men’s Basketball Tournament contender. Loyola has yet to lose at home this year and San Diego State should by no means walk into The Windy City expecting this one to be a breeze. Pedigree is what is driving this number, as Loyola Chicago is like the 300th pick at the draft while San Diego State is a tournament team every year and is more like a top-10 pick at the draft. Everyone knows SDSU while nobody knows the Ramblers. It is so damn tempting to play Loyola Chicago straight up but the points offer up such tremendous value here that we are leaning that way instead.
Nelly
Georgia State + over Idaho
The Vandals have played their way into the postseason with a 6-2 run the last eight games going 7-1 ATS in that span. Idaho has been fortunate as they have several wins in which they have been soundly out-gained while getting five wins by 10 or fewer points. At 3-8 Georgia State has been a disappointment but the Panthers have very good defensive numbers, allowing just 4.9 yards per play on the season. Opposing teams are throwing for just 177 yards per game vs. Georgia State on 53 percent completions as Idaho may have a tough time in this matchup. Georgia State out-gained two Sun Belt leaders Troy and Arkansas State in narrow losses and the Panthers are one of the few teams in the conference that had to play all three of the potential co-champions for a far tougher path than most. This is the first meeting between these programs and Georgia State has had two weeks to prepare for this finale, though motivation can come into question with little at stake. The Panthers have covered in each of the last four road games including a six-point loss at Wisconsin that looks very impressive at this point in the season. Another narrow Idaho wins seems like the most likely scenario but Georgia State remains a viable road underdog with a number that looks a little elevated for a Vandals team that has squeaked out a lot of tight games including last week’s fourth quarter comeback that sealed a bowl win for the program for the first time since 2009.
Dr Bob
Alabama vs Florida
Alabama is clearly the best team in the nation but 24 points is a big hurdle to get over against a good defensive team like Florida, even if the Gators are banged up on that side of the ball. Alabama’s offense has averaged only 31.8 points per game and the Tide’s average of 1.0 non-offensive touchdowns per game (9 on defense and 3 punt returns) is unsustainable, especially give that Florida has given up just 1 non-offensive TD all season (an interception return). The Gators are allowing just 14.6 points per game (to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 28.7 points) and their defense hasn’t played much worse the last 3 weeks without the services of their top 2 linebackers, Davis and Anzalone, and also 2 games without strong safety Marcus Maye.
For the season Florida has allowed just 298 yards at 4.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team. In the last two games without their top 3 tacklers, the Gators have allowed 5.9 yards per play but they’ve faced LSU and Florida State offensive units, both on the road, that would combine to average 7.2 yppl at home against an average defensive team. So, Florida has continued to play at a level that is 1.3 yppl better than average. I still have adjusted my model for the injuries, as top defensive lineman Jordan Sheritt has joined the list of wounded, which also includes starting defensive back Nick Washington, who also missed last week, and DL Bryan Cox, who has started 5 games. On the plus side, the Gators do get back LB Jarrad Davis, who was leading the team in tackles before missing the past 3 games. Despite Florida’s defensive rating being the same the last couple of weeks with all the injured players out, I have docked that unit 0.3 yppl in their rating. However, even with the adjustment to Florida’s defensive rating my math still only projects Alabama to score 28 points and the Tide were held to just 10 points by LSU – the only other elite defense that they’ve faced this season – although they did average 7.4 yppl against a very good USC defense to open the season.
If Florida can score a touchdown I think they’re likely to cover the spread in this game. Florida’s offense is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season but they are a bit better with Appleby at quarterback (-0.2 yppl). Alabama has allowed an average of only 11.4 points per game to a schedule of offensive teams that is considerably better than Florida’s offense and Bama has held half of the teams they’ve faced to 6 points or fewer. While I can certainly see Alabama shutting out Florida, the math projects 8.5 points for the Gators, which should be enough to cover the inflated number. Overall my model that projects a score based on the projected stats favors Alabama by 18 points while my adjusted points based model favors Alabama by 22 points. Somewhere in between is the right number and I’ll certainly lean with Florida plus the points.
Wunderdog
Carolina @ New York
Pick: New York -166
Carolina has lost four of five and plays its sixth road game in the last seven contests. Carolina is #23 in the NHL in goals scored, #16 on the power play, off a 2-1 loss at Boston. Carolina is without Jordan Staal (concussion), and lost another player to injury when Elias Lindholm exited Thursday's loss and was not at practice Friday. The Hurricanes are 23-52 against a team with a winning record. New York is solid all around, tops in the NHL in goals scored, fifth on the power play, #11 in goals allowed and ninth in penalty killing. New York is 20-3-0 against the Hurricanes since 2011 and the Hurricanes have dropped 12 in a row at Madison Square Garden.