Free Picks for Saturday, January 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Raphael Esparza
Watford (PK, -140) over Middlesbrough
Watford gets this game in their backyard Saturday morning and Watford looks to get a much-needed 'W'! Watford hasn't won a game since December 10 when they beat Everton 3-2 but after that they went 0-4-1 in their last 5 league matches. Watford did have a big win on Saturday in the FA Cup, beating Burton Albion 2-0, and that win should bring momentum to this match. Middlesbrough is also coming off a win in the FA Cup, beating Sheff Wed 3-0, but in league matches they have gone 1-4-1 in their last 6 league games. Should be a very tight game from the start but in the second half I see Watford getting a late goal to grab the 3 points at home.
Strike Point Sports
Oklahoma St at Kansas
Play: Kansas
The Jayhawks have really been in a dominant run at home, and I don't expect that to change against the Cowboys on Saturday. Rock Chalk Jayhawk have too much talent and more importantly too much depth. OK State may hang around for 15-20 minutes but the home-court edge proves to difficult not to create separation. Kansas won by 27 in this game last year, and with the Pokes currently riding a 0-3 Big 12 start into this week, all the momentum is building up for Bill Self's program to keep cruising at home.
Indian Cowboy
Atlanta (-4.5) over Seattle
What a game to lead off the NFL Playoffs with the pupil facing the mentor as the Falcons Head Coach tees up against Pete Carroll and company. The difference here is that this game will be in Atlanta and any shady calls will likely go the Falcons way. Shady or questionable, you can use the words interchangeably these days depending on where your fandom lies. But, per this game, revenge is in mind for the Falcons and no coach knows what Pete Carroll does better and what this organization in particular does to get ready for a ballgame better than Dan Quinn of the Falcons. Atlanta set their eyes on him a couple years ago and waited for him to become available before signing him. He took a great deal of heat after a hot start last year as the team faltered in the second half of the season, but this year those lapses simply did not happen in the second half of the season. The Falcons have won 11 games, the division and beat their nemesis of Carolina and New Orleans handily - and beat Tampa Bay once too to go 5-1 in the Division. Atlanta remembers the 24-26 loss, has revenge and Seattle will be riding far too high coming into this game coming off a 20-point win over the Lions. Look for Atlanta to likely win and cover as the Falcons are rested, have revenge and Seahawks are 1-4 ATS following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Vernon Croy
Atlanta (-4.5) over Seattle
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have the Falcons as the better overall team at home Saturday. The Falcons are well rested and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after putting up more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game and the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Falcons have averaged 33.8 PPG this season which is #1 in the NFL, and even this Seahawks defense will have trouble slowing down the most potent offense in the NFL; just look at the 38 points the Falcons put up at home against a very solid Cardinals defense.
Allen Eastman
New England (-16) over Houston
I think the Patriots will win in another blowout. The Patriots have dominated the Texans the last few years. They have beaten Houston five straight times in the last five seasons and are 4-1 ATS in those games. That includes a 27-0 win over the Texans earlier this year in a game in which the Pats didn't have Tom Brady. New England has covered five straight games and they have won seven in a row straight up. The Patriots are 25-10 ATS in their last 35 home games and they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. New England has been great in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, going 4-1 ATS the last five years. This team is one of the best in football. Houston is 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games and I don't think that they have a chance to take down the Patriots in Foxboro. This line is this high for a reason, and I think that New England is going to get the job done.
Mike Anthony
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Seattle Seahawks +4.5
The Seattle Seahawks, coming off a blowout win last week over the Detroit Lions, go on the road to take on the Atlanta Falcons who earned the first round bye and came into the post season on a four game winning streak. The Falcons have been an interesting team this year as they finished out the regular season with an 11-5 record but when you look back at the teams they beat and the ways they won you really start to wonder how solid they really are. The Seattle Seahawks took down the Lions last week in dominant fashion as the Legion of Boom held Stafford and the Lions to only 205 passing yards and their running game to only 49 total yards in the game. Seattle had a solid offensive day with Russell Wilson completing 23-30 passes for 224 yards and two TDs without being intercepted. The big thing to look at for the Seattle offense last week was their running game as Thomas Rawls piled up 161 yards and a TD on 27 carries. Take the Seahawks and the points in this one as the Falcons really have not impressed me at any point this season and are going to have their hands full holding the Seattle running game and their offense in general in check.
Rocketman
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Seattle Seahawks +5
The Seattle Seahawks travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Saturday afternoon. Both teams come in with identical 11-5 SU overall records on the season. Seattle is averaging 254.9 yards per game passing and 358.9 total yards per game this year. Atlanta is allowing 266.5 yards per game passing and 371.2 total yards per game this season. Atlanta is 3-11 ATS last 14 playoff games. Atlanta is 2-8 ATS last 3 years after a win against a division opponent. Seattle is scoring 27.3 points per game their past 3 games overall. Seattle is allowing only 15.5 points per game in dome games this year. Atlanta is allowing 25.4 points per game overall this year, 27.7 points per game at home this season and 28.2 points per game in dome games this year. Seattle is 47-23-2 ATS last 72 games on turf. Atlanta is 4-10 ATS last 14 home games. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS last 5 Divisional playoff games. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS last 6 home playoff games. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS last 6 playoff games. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS last 5 games when they playing in January. Road team is 4-1 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Seattle today!
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +5 over ATLANTA
The Falcons have the NFL's highest-scoring offense and quarterback Matt Ryan is the betting chalk in the NFL's MVP race. We are not here to discount any of the amazing things Ryan and the Atlanta offense has accomplished this season but all those highlight reel plays do not matter now. While the Falcons can go throw for throw with anyone in the league, it’s their defense that has us concerned about their ability to cover this number. This is a below average unit at best that ranks 25th in total defense. The Falcons are bottom five (28th) in the league when defending the pass. It doesn't matter how many points you put up if you can't stop your opponents. In their final regular season game two weeks ago, there were some serious trouble spots from the Dirty Birds. As a -6½ point home favorite over the Saints, the Falcons managed to take a big lead before allowing 19 unanswered 4th quarter points and a backdoor cover. Even if the Falcons go up in this Division Round game, the possibility for a team to cover late is always in play. That's what makes this host such a big risk when being asked to give away points. If Atlanta goes down early against a Seattle team that is capable of taking a lead, it could be a long swim for the NFC South Champions. Come playoff time, defense usually wins out.
The Seahawks were not impressive in a 28-6 win over the Lions last Saturday night. You are also going to read and hear all about their road struggles this season with losses at Tampa, Green Bay, New Orleans and Los Angeles. Let us not forget Seattle’s high profile 6-6 tie with the Cardinals on Sunday Night Football. Unlike last season when they surged late, the Seahawks stumbled into the postseason with a home loss to Arizona in Week 16 and they failed to cover as an -11½ point favorite in San Francisco in Week 17, winning the game 25-23. Seattle isn't totally healthy either, as tit is missing defensive leader Earl Thomas. Many stories have been written about Thomas's absence this week and how the Falcons will be able to take advantage but we're not so sure. The pass happy Lions only managed 182 yards in the air during Wild Card Weekend.
Quarterback Russel Wilson and company are capable of putting up points on anyone and while their road record may not be impressive, one game stands out in which they were written off too and that was its 31-24 Sunday night win at New England in Week 10. One other story getting some traction this week is Seattle's 0-8 playoff record when taking back a price. We do not factor past results into our handicapping but it's important to pay attention to what others are writing and talking about. It's why we haven't brought up Atlanta’s past playoff failures as a reason they won't win this game. What's more relevant is that these two teams played in Week 6 and Seattle was a -7 point choice in Seattle. The Seahakws won the game 26-24 but a highly publicized no-call on pass interference in favor of Seattle (shocking) denied the Falcons their chance to win outright. Perhaps the Seahawks were overvalued in that game but that is not the case here, as it is a 12-point swing in the number from that game, which prompts this play as much as anything else. Play the value and hope for the best.
NEW ENGLAND -15 over Houston
We simply cannot in good conscious go to the window and put our hard earned money down on this pathetic Texans’ team. They wasted every one of the $72-million singles they gave to quarterback Brock Osweiler this offseason. While it's likely Houston cuts him loose before the end of that deal, they still gave Brock a $12-million signing bonus and $37-million is guaranteed. Barf. While Brocky Boy was yucking it up last Saturday afternoon against a Raiders’ team that quit the second their star quarterback's leg snapped in two, we were taking careful note about what the announcers were saying about this guy. “All he needed was a little confidence”, “THIS is the quarterback Houston signed in the off-season” and “Maybe he just needed a little perspective from the bench”. That last point is important because the ONLY reason Brock Osweiler is starting this game is because some guy named Tom Savage can't remember his middle name. Savage actually replaced Osweiller as the team's starter in Week 15 versus the Jaguars. It was deafening, as Texans fans cheered Osweiler's walk of shame to the sidelines. Much has been made about the Texans defense and the return of rush end Jadeveon Clowney, to that we have two words for you; Tom Brady.
The Patriots need no introductions. Their near decade and a half run on top of the NFL in this era of parity is not going to be matched. Every year some team picks a plum from the Bill Belichick coaching tree trying to recreate New England's success. It never works. There is only one ”BB” and he is never outmatched. Belichick almost takes a sick pleasure in torturing his former assistant coaches after they leave for “greener” pastures. Texans coach Bill O'Brien has suffered more than Eric Mangini or Romeo Crenell before him. The Patriots are 2-0 against O'Brien's Texans, outscoring Houston 171-79. One of those games includes a Week 3 loss earlier this year in New England while Tom Brady was still suspended. The Pats won that game 27-0.
This is a big line. In fact, it’s the just the fifth time in the Super Bowl era where a team has been favored by 15 points or more. It's been nearly 20 years since the last time a team was laying this much lumber. That was the '98 Vikings who beat the Cardinals 41-21. Prior to that, the '94 49ers were favoured by more than 15 twice during that playoff run. San Fran covered both times including Super Bowl XXIX. The only double digit dog to win outright was the New York Jets in Super Bowl III after QB Joe Willy Namath followed through on a promise. While past results do not matter, taking these points with the Texans is not an appealing proposition. Unfortunately we are not in the habit of laying double digits with an overvalued home favorite so we'll have to pass. However, that could change come Sunday. For now, no bets.
Randall The Handle
Seahawks 11-5-1 at Falcons 11-5
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is the odds on favourite to win this season’s most valuable player award and rightfully so as Matty Ice put together an outstanding year that saw his team rank first in scoring, second in both yardage and passing yards while a strong ground game ranked fifth overall. Ryan has a variety of offensive weapons at his disposal — most notably premier WR Julio Jones — which has allowed the Falcons to outgun the majority of opponents he’s faced this year. We’re not so sure that the same philosophy will work here though. Atlanta’s 2016 docket did not feature a lot of physical foes and its high-powered offence was the beneficiary, averaging a league leading 33.8 points per game. However, when facing more concrete opposition, things were not as rosy with the Falcons averaging just 20.7 points per game against teams like the Eagles, Broncos and these Seahawks. We’re not condemning this host as they’ve put together a very commendable season but it is Seattle that has the credentials that earns our endorsement for this contest. The Seahawks are receiving a generous amount of points to a team they’ve already defeated this season. Granted, that 26-24 victory was in Seattle but it’s not like Atlanta has used the Georgia Dome to its advantage, going just 15-16 straight up and 13-18 vs. spread here in past three years. It also marks only the third time all year that Pete Carroll’s club will be receiving points, covering both previous occasions when taking 2½ at Arizona and 7½ at New England. Accepting these points with a defence that ranks highly in nearly all pertinent categories is sound. Flipping things around, Seattle’s offence can do some damage to a vulnerable Falcons’ defence that Atlanta has been able to mask with its proficient offence. A healthy Russell Wilson can exploit an opponent that allows 25.4 points per game (27th ranked) and 281 passing yards (28th ranked) in this all important matchup. An experienced playoff team that was giving away eight points last week (and covered) is now taking back five points against a team that still hasn’t quite earned the respect it is asking for here. We’ll stick with the known entity. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +5
Texans 10-7 at Patriots 14-2
There aren’t a lot of secrets here. Nor are there many people interested in backing the Texans in this matchup. Rooting for a Houston team that has severe offensive issues and that now faces a New England club that gave up the fewest points in the league is only for the brave-hearted. But if you can stomach it, a reward can be forthcoming after 60 minutes of play. This is an awful lot of points to be receiving with a team that relinquished the least amount of yards in the NFL this season. This stingy Houston defence has kept its team in games on more than one occasion and has plenty of room to do the same here. We all expect New England to win this game. The question becomes by how many? The oddsmaker had a similar dilemma, wondering where to place this pointspread. He started at Patriots -14½. The sheeple stampeded to the window to lay the points, driving it as high as -16. Then the influential bettors bought the Texans at the lofty number, reducing it back to its current -15. We have to think that there is value in that number. New England is a very good team. Its strong defence gets overlooked because Tom Brady and his offence is so graceful and dangerous. But even Brady is human and not having his favourite target in the lineup is another plus for the big takeback as TE Rob Gronkowski remains sidelined. The Patriots are smart and they know how to win games. They don’t need to win by huge margins to prove their worth. This will be Tom Brady’s 32nd playoff game in this uniform. His team has covered just 14 of previous 31 post-season games. In addition, No. 12 holds an 18-24 ATS mark as a home favourite of nine or more since the 2007 season. Houston has allowed more than 27 points just once this season. Keeping the Pats in that range, should earn the Texans a cover. We’ll close our eyes, plug our noses and lean to the dog. TAKING: TEXANS +15
Brad Wilton
The Pirates let one get away on the road Wednesday, as they dropped an 89-86 overtime decision at Marquette, their second straight conference road loss - lost at Creighton prior to Marquette on December 28th. The Hall is on the road once again here on Saturday, but they are still sporting a positive 16-5 against the spread mark in Big East play their last 21.
Seton Hall is facing a Providence team that is on a 1-5 straight up and against the spread slide, with the Friars most recent loss a real head-scratcher at lowly DePaul!
The Friars are definitely rebuilding this season, but they weren't able with the lineup they had last year to solve the Pirates in their pair of meetings, as Seton Hall won by 18 at home, and by 9 on the road.
This game is priced around a pick, and my money is on the Pirates to rebound from their OT loss at Marquette and keep the Friars back-sliding.
Take Seton Hall.
1* SETON HALL
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play winner on the home underdog Mercer Bears as they play host to conference rival Tennessee Chattanooga.
The Moccasins are the class of the Southern Conference and enter at 13-4 straight up, but the oddsmakers have been making it tough on them at the ticket window, as the Mocs have only covered 1 of their last 4 games, and they will be facing a desperate Mercer team that enters at 8-10.
Mercer is playing off a road underdog win at Samford, and they have captured 2 of their last 3 games straight up. The Bears have lost 3 in a row in this series, but they did take Tenn Chatt into overtime before bowing the last time these schools met last February in Macon.
Today is as good a day as any for Mercer to step up and pull an upset, but believe me, I will surely settle for the home underdog cover.
Take the Bears plus the points.
2* MERCER
Dave Cokin
Stanford -6
The Cardinal went bad for a while with games missed by the two best guys on the team contributing to the poor performances. They are now back to nearly full strength and off a really good game against Wazzu. Granted that's not the best barometer as the Cougars are terrible. But I have very little regard for Washington. The Huskies are what the Huskies always are. They play a breakneck pace and defend very poorly. Not that the Cardinal are a powerhouse, but they're a better fundamental team than UW and they have a better resume on the season as well. Not afraid to give some points here and will do so with the Stanford side in this PAC-12 game.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Iowa State vs. TCU
Play: TCU -1
Tough spot for the Iowa State Cyclones. They're not only off the big road win at Oklahoma State, but have a date with the Kansas Jayhawks on Monday. TCU HC Jamie Dixon is doing a fine job in Fort Worth in his first season at the helm. There are no superstars on this team with six players averaging between 12 ppg & 7 ppg. The Horned Frogs get solid glass-work out of Kenrich Williams, while Alex Robinson gets everyone involved on the offensive end. Monte Morris is the Swiss Army knife of Iowa State basketball. Morris leads the team in scoring and assists, while also pulling down 5.1 rpg. But TCU has the matchups to throw a wrench into Steve Prohm's system, especially in the situation mentioned above. TCU enters on an 8-3 ATS run, including a 4-0 spread stretch off a SU win.
STEPHEN NOVER
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Play: Over 148
Arkansas has scored 70 or more points in every game this season while averaging 81.6 points. The Razorbacks are going to be highly motivated to snap a two-game losing streak and move their SEC record to 2-3. The Razorbacks have averaged 87.3 points during their last three games versus Missouri. The over has cashed 64 percent of the time during the past 10 years when Arkansas is a home favorite off two or more losses in a row. Arkansas' defense isn't good enough, though, to lay this many points against a desperate Missouri team. The best way to play this game is go over the total. Missouri averages nearly 71 points per contest. The Tigers also lead the SEC in tempo. Their scoring will go up when they convert more baskets, which should happen following a lineup change and expected better 3-point shooting, which is just at 26 percent. The Tigers go all out on offense not afraid to have their guards crash the boards rather than get back on defense. This is a big plus for the over. Tigers forward Jordan Barnett has come on to average 17 points in his last four games. He provides scoring up front along with Kevin Puryear. Missouri's guards are due to shoot better especially from 3-point range. However, the Tigers also have a lot of backcourt youth that should result in plenty of turnovers against Arkansas' full-court pressure resulting in easy Razorback points and free throw opportunities. Arkansas leads the SEC in free throw percentage at 77 percent while getting to the line an average of 19 times per game.