BEN BURNS
Marshall vs. UAB
Play: UAB -2½
The Herd had Thursday's game (at Middle Tennessee State) circled. It didn't go as they hoped, the Raiders winning by a 69-57 margin. Off that 12-point setback, I feel that they could easily suffer a bit of emotional letdown here. That's likely to spell trouble, as the Blazers have won three straight, covering each of their last two.
While each game was close, the Blazers took both meetings last season. They were laying -7.5 points for the game here. Given that Marshall is off that disappointing loss and is now just 2-7 away from home, those two wins coming at FIU and FAU, this line could also easily be a little higher. Consider laying the small number with the surging home team.
While his basketball is (obviously) incredibly hot, Ben is also 11-2 his L13 NFL "sides." He nailed both his top rated sides in the opening round (Houston and Seattle) part of the PERFECT 8-0 Saturday sweep. NFL playoff "totals" are 83% the last two years, too. All records on the line this afternoon!
MATT FARGO
Wichita State vs. Illinois State
Play: Illinois State +2½
First place in the Missouri Valley Conference is on the line in Normal, Illinois on Saturday night and the Redbirds home floor should propel them to the victory. Illinois St. and Wichita St. are both 5-0 in the conference and riding six-game winning streaks yet it is the Shockers who comes in as the favorites with a lot of that based on name and past history. This is a very solid team which has yet to lose a true road game, going 3-0 on the season, but this is by far their biggest test. The Redbirds have taken care of business on their home floor with a perfect 8-0 record and Illinois St. has won 14 straight games at Redbird Arena, tied for the second-longest streak since the building opened in 1989. They are getting it done with defense as they are allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7 percent from the floor which is sixth in the country and in five conference games, that drops to 35.4 percent. The Redbirds have not been alone in first place in the MVC since 1998 when they won their last regular-season title so this is definitely a big game to prove they are for real. Wichita St. is 0-4 ATS this season as a single digit favorite while the Redbirds are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record.
JESSE SCHULE
VCU vs. Davidson
Play: VCU -1½
The Rams are the top team in the A-10, undefeated in conference play so far. They have won eight in a row, and three of those wins came on the road. Davidson is normally one of the top teams in this conference, but this year's squad is struggling. They've lost three of four in conference play, and that includes home losses to Richmond and Fordham. Davidson's leading scorer Jack Gibbs was just 3-of-17 from the field in his last game, and the team as a whole shot just 28.9 percent from the field. It won't get any easier here against the Rams, who have held opponents to just 64.2 points per game over their last five. VCU is a solid 16-5 ATS in it's last 21 road games, and 21-7 ATS in it's last 28 conference games. I don't like the Wildcat's chances of breaking out of a slump against such a superior opponent.
ART ARONSON
Rangers vs. Canadiens
Play: Under 5½
Seems like a good spot to pull the trigger on the under here. New York comes to town gassed after last night’s 4-2 home loss to the Leafs. The Habs return home after a 7-4 win at Winnipeg and a 7-1 loss in Minnesota. Clearly Canadiens goaltender Carey Price and company will be out to atone for some shoddy work on the defensive end. And note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after allowing four goals or more in the first game of a back-to-back, while Montreal has seen the total go UNDER in seven of ten this season after allowing four goals or more.
SEAN MURPHY
Texans vs. Patriots
Play: Patriots -15
I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set this line high enough in advance of Saturday night’s expected blowout in Foxborough.
Everyone sees it coming, which is a little bit concerning, but I still have to take a shot with the Patriots in a game they should win handily.
I have little faith in the Texans offense leading into this one. New England’s defense is a better unit than it receives credit for, and I’m confident it will come out with plenty of motivation and energy after being idle last week. The Texans certainly benefited from facing a Raiders team that had the wind knocked out of them (to say the least) when QB Derek Carr went down to a season-ending injury on Christmas Eve. They won’t be so fortunate this time around.
Defensively, the Texans may hold their own for a while, but it should only be a matter of time before Tom Brady and the Patriots offense break loose. A couple of second half turnovers from the Texans in desperation mode should keep this one from being interesting in the fourth quarter, and may just prove to be the difference between a win and a cover.
DAVE PRICE
Baylor vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -2
It's clear that the No. 1 ranking in the country has gone to the players' heads at Baylor. They started 15-0 and got that ranking, then promptly lost 68-89 at West Virginia. Now it's Kansas State's turn to knock off the top-ranked team. The Wildcats will be hungry to do just that here. The Wildcats are very close to being 4-0 in the conference. They beat both Texas and Oklahoma at home, but lost 88-90 at Kansas as 13.5-point dogs and 65-66 at Texas Tech as 4-point dogs, losing those 2 road games by a combined 3 points. But now they return home where they are 9-0 on the season and outscoring foes by 16.5 points per game. This will only be the 3rd true road game for the Bears all season. The Wildcats are 23-5-2 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Duke vs. Louisville
Play: Duke +4½
The Blue Devils enter this fray losers of their last two and without coach K. who is sidelined with back surgery. It appears the 'boys' are taking time off on the defensive end of the floor as Duke's opponents have shot better then 50% in their last two losses. Circus performer Grayson Allen has settled back in the fold and the 'Tebow' type leader will bring the best out of his teammates today.
JACK JONES
Virginia vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson +2½
The Clemson Tigers are highly motivated for a victory here Saturday at home against Virginia. They have lost three straight coming in with a 70-75 loss at Notre Dame, an 86-89 home loss in overtime to North Carolina, and a bad 63-75 loss at Georgia Tech last time out.
Virginia got its bad taste out of its mouth following two straight losses to FSU and Pitt by beating Wake Forest 79-62 at home last time out. I think the Cavaliers are being overvalued here now after that result, while the Tigers are being undervalued off their upset loss to the Yellow Jackets, who also beat UNC at home earlier this season.
Clemson is 7-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to UNC in overtime. The Tigers are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.1 points per game at home this year. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU in the last 12 meetings.
Clemson is 33-14 ATS in its last 57 home games off a loss by 10 points or more. The Tigers are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 Saturday games. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
MIKE LUNDIN
Lakers vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -11
The Clippers will "host" the Lakers in the battle of L.A. Saturday afternoon. The Lakers won as a 2.5-point dog on the 25 Dec. in the last meeting in the series. I expect the Clippers to make them pay for that today.
The Clippers are on a five-game winning streak, and they had covered the spread in four straight games before coming up just short in a 105-96 win against Orlando on Wednesday. They'll show no mercy here though, and they'll face a Lakers team in disarray following a 108-87 loss to Portland and most recently a 134-94 loss to the Spurs. The Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. In other words; this is not a good spot to stop the bleeding.
The Clippers should be fired up here to revenge the loss from earlier in the season, and I think they'll win big.
JIMMY BOYD
Seton Hall vs. Providence
Play: Providence +2
I really like the value here with the Friars as a home dog against the Pirates. I played against Providence in their last home game against Creighton, as the Bluejays are an elite team that features one of the most efficient offenses in the country. I don't think Seton Hall is anywhere close to the same level and this is not an ideal spot for the Pirates. Last time out Seton Hall lost in overtime at Marquette 86-89.
I think that will be a tough loss to bounce back from, especially with it coming just 3 days ago. Keep in mind the Pirates aren't a deep team and all 4 starters played at least 34 minutes. Not to mention they have an even bigger game on deck at Villanova coming up on Monday. Providence is going to be desperate here, as they have opened up just 1-4 in Big East play. The Friars are 10-1 at home and I think they have a big enough edge here to win this game going away.
CHASE DIAMOND
Davidson +1½
This game at 2pm has the 14-3 VCU at the 8-7 Davidson. Wow VCU has won 8 straight games and are off a 30 point win mean while Davidson is desperate to get on track and know they must win today over rival VCU and this number looks light that's why the public is all over the road VCU at a rate of 65% but my sources offshore love the home Davidson today. Davidson is on a 5 game ATS losing streak but they are a money making 43-24 64% ATS in Conference games off a SU loss which is what we have here.
BRAD DIAMOND
Temple -5½
Hate going against Dunph (534-291) who has been a consistent winning coach throughout the years, but Tulsa has some offsetting factors that should make this a classic wire job. The units have similar records, including point differentials. But, the Golden Hurricanes have accrued (25.8 ) a huge amount of points off the bench this season. They have covered 7-of-10 games on the board.
BRANDON SHIVELY
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Play: Seahawks +4½
After initial money poured in on the Falcons and pushed this line from -3.5 to -5, late steam has pushed this spread back down to -4/ -4.5. I like Seattle in this spot for numerous reasons. Seattle is the more experienced team as far as the playoffs are concerned. This game is played in a dome, where I feel the Seahawks are better suited when playing on the road.
Seattle comes into this game having outgained their last 6 opponents. There is a good possibility that running back C.J. Prosise plays here and Rawls is healthy also. This 1-2 combination could be huge to go along with Russell Wilson who is also 100% and can be effective outside of the pocket. C.J. Prosise had come on strong in 2 games in November before getting injured. He was huge for them out of the backfield as a receiver in a 31-24 victory at New England.
The ‘Over’ is 8-0 in Seattle’s last 8 Playoff games when they have been an underdog and they are averaging about 28 ppg in these 8 games which gives me confidence they put up a big number here. While the Falcons have the NFL’s highest scoring offense, they continue to be a bad bet when laying points at home. They are 0-2 ATS in their 2 most recent Playoff games as a favorite, in 2013 and 2011.
Going back to the 2013-14 season, the Falcons are 6-16 ATS as a home favorite. As a home favorite of 5 points or less, they are 1-10 ATS their last 11. The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS their L5 games as a road dog of more than 3.5 points.
Looking at the officiating crew for this game, Gene Steratore’s crew called the NFL’s lowest combined total of defensive-holding, illegal-contact and defensive-pass-interference penalties (22 in 15 games). This could be an edge for the Seahawks with Sherman and company allowed to be more physical against Julio Jones and the Falcons receivers.
All 4 favorites covered last week. Do they all cover this week? That’s highly unlikely and there is a far higher probability of the underdogs cashing as the public is lining up once again laying the chalk. I am following the late steam here on the Seahawks.
MIKE ANTHONY
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Seattle Seahawks +4.5
The Seattle Seahawks, coming off a blowout win last week over the Detroit Lions, go on the road to take on the Atlanta Falcons who earned the first round bye and came into the post season on a four game winning streak. The Falcons have been an interesting team this year as they finished out the regular season with an 11-5 record but when you look back at the teams they beat and the ways they won you really start to wonder how solid they really are. The Seattle Seahawks took down the Lions last week in dominant fashion as the Legion of Boom held Stafford and the Lions to only 205 passing yards and their running game to only 49 total yards in the game. Seattle had a solid offensive day with Russell Wilson completing 23-30 passes for 224 yards and two TDs without being intercepted. The big thing to look at for the Seattle offense last week was their running game as Thomas Rawls piled up 161 yards and a TD on 27 carries. Take the Seahawks and the points in this one as the Falcons really have not impressed me at any point this season and are going to have their hands full holding the Seattle running game and their offense in general in check.
Texans vs. Patriots
Play: Under 44.5
The New England QB obviously trusts his WRs, regardless who is catching passes from him, and Julian Edelman and his 98 catches verifies that he will always get the most from them. New England and their extremely underrated D especially over the last 5 weeks, are in way too much of a groove now to be contained vs a poor scoring Texans offense. Houston doesn't always stay patient enough to keep things going the way they want and matched up vs a powerful team like New England - who aren't going to let them stay overly patient. On 3rd down and long, they have been very predictable at times, with their non efficient passing game and teams have known this. The Texans have a solid defense and the Patriots arent a quick strike offense so I expect this one to be a low scoring game. Take the UNDER here on Saturday evening.
FRANK JORDAN
Florida State vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -7.5
Florida State and North Carolina come in as a pair of top 12 teams looking for a big conference win to push them further up the rankings. Florida State is 16-1 as they started off with four in a row before a tough three point loss to Temple and haven't lost since going 12 straight heading into this game including four wins over ranked teams. Florida State is in quite the rough stretch playing six straight conference games against ranked teams, so far they have won the first three beating #12 Virginia, #21 Virginia Tech, and #7 Duke. Florida State is #9 in the country and atop the ACC with a 4-0 conference record. North Carolina is #11 with a 15-3 mark and 3-1 in ACC play. North Carolina opened the year with a 7 game winning streak before falling to Indiana, won three before a loss to Kentucky, won a pair before a loss to Georgia Tech and have won their last three since. North Carolina is so good because they can beat you inside, outside, in transition, in press and especially on the offensive glass with second chance points. North Carolina has four players scoring over 12 points a game in Jackson, Berry II, Meeks and Hicks which makes it hard to defend as too many options to cover. Florida State has three players scoring double figures and a fourth around 9.5 points, so the question is can they keep up the scoring with North Carolina? Florida State is scoring 86 points per game while allowing just under 69 points per game and North Carolina is 6th in the nation scoring 89 points per game and allowing under 70 per game. Look for North Carolina to ramp up their scoring and clamp down on defense as they pull away late winning 95-86.