Jim Feist
Baylor at Kansas St
Pick: Under
Baylor can play any style, capable of banging the boards and blocking shots with their huge frontcourt. Baylor is on an 11-4 run under the total, 7-1 under in Big 12 play. Kansas State (13-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) plays a slower pace for Bruce Weber, focusing on defense, and they are at home. Kansas State is 6-1 under the total at home.
Harry Bondi
Seattle / Atlanta Over 51.5
We have the stats, trends and history behind us on this play. Not only has Atlanta gone 8-0 to the over this season and 9-0 in dome games, but since 2003 NFL playoff games played indoors have gone 21-8 to the over. The Seattle defensive secondary is struggling with injuries and will have problems stopping the historically efficient Falcons offense. Meanwhile, look for the new-look, run-first Seattle offense, featuring fullback Marcel Reese, to have success against the weak front line on the Atlanta defense and open up the passing game for QB Russell Wilson.
David Banks
Houston @ New England
Pick: Houston +15
With a somewhat easy win over Oakland in the Wild Card playoffs last week, Houston faces a nearly impossible task in the Divisional Round – beating New England. The Patriots have played in the AFC Championship game in each of the last five seasons. It’s highly expected they reach it again. New England has played Houston a total of eight times over the years; the Patriots have won seven times. That includes a 27-0 blowout of Houston in Week 3 of this season. In fact, the two teams have played in each of the past two regular seasons. New England has won by a combined score of 54-6.
For Houston to have any success, the defense will have to play well and RB Lamar Miller is going to have to produce in the running game. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney was a menace to the Raiders last week with an acrobatic interception, two batted passes, and relentless pressure on Oakland QB Connor Cook. Outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus recorded two sacks against the Raiders and both he and Clowney are going to have to apply some type of pressure on Patriots QB Tom Brady.
In the Brady-head coach Bill Belichick era in New England, the Patriots are 10-2 in divisional round playoff games. Belichick found a way to produce the league’s best defense – New England led the NFL in scoring defense in 2016 – even after trading away the unit’s two best players prior to the season. In the meeting earlier this year, the Patriots defense forced Texans QB Brock Osweiler into one of his poorer performances of the season. He completed 24-of-41 passes for just 196 yards and he threw an interception.
Nelly
Texans at Patriots
Play: Patriots
Brock Osweiler got the biggest win of his young career last week leading the Texans to a playoff win over the Raiders. His signature NFL moment prior to that was leading the Broncos to a comeback home win over the Patriots last season, battling back from a 21-7 deficit and delivering a touchdown in the final two minutes before Denver won in overtime. If Osweiler can beat the Patriots this week his forgettable first season with a hefty free agent contract could be completely forgiven. Osweiler only completed 14 passes for 168 yards last week as Houston led early with the help of turnovers going against Connor Cook in his first ever NFL start. Houston’s defense had elite numbers this season but the Texans went just 9-7 with more than half of those wins coming in the lousy AFC South. The Texans also finished 26th in the NFL in scoring differential while the other seven teams playing this weekend were the top seven teams in the NFL. The Texans did have five wins over 8-8 or better squads on the season and the final four losses of the season all came by eight or fewer points playing including competitive games vs. a full strength Raiders team and at Green Bay. Houston was embarrassed on Monday night at New England in Week 3 as a pair of 2-0 teams faced off with a 27-0 Patriots win even starting rookie Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Houston lost the turnover battle 3-0 in that game while actually slightly out-gaining New England as Houston’s defense did its part holding New England to a 29% success rate on 3rd downs while holing the Patriots to just 4.8 yards per play but turnovers and penalties were costly as the three New England touchdowns came on drives of just 22, 21, and 47 yards. New England played with Rob Gronkowski in that game but Houston’s defense only got one hit on the quarterback in the game. Heavy playoff favorites fared poorly in the 2000s but since the 2010-11 season they are 6-1 ATS though this is poised to be the biggest playoff spread since Super Bowl XXIX when the 49ers throttled the Chargers, covering at -19 with a 49-26. New England is 9-1 S/U in the Belichick era hosting divisional round games, covering in 4 of the last 5 as well.
Buster Sports
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Play: Ottawa Senators -135
Tonight the Toronto Maple Leafs go to Ottawa fresh off a nice 4-2 win in New York last night. Toronto played probably one of their better games of the year last night. They killed all 6 PP opportunities by the Rangers and scored 2 PP goals themselves. Problem now is they play right back tonight against an Ottawa club that has been playing some nice hockey of late. The Senators have won their last 2 home games beating top clubs Pittsburgh and Edmonton. Just a real bad situation for the Leafs tonight and we see them coming up flat after such a great game just less than 24 hrs earlier. The Leafs are 2-6-1 on back to back games this year and with Ottawa winning the last 5 between the clubs we have a nice winner with the Senators tonight.
Oskeim Sports
Arkansas State at Arkansas Little Rock
Play: Arkansas State +3
My math model actually favors Arkansas State and the Red Wolves are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .600 to .800 over the last two seasons. The Red Wolves are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus 601 or greater opposition, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after failing to cover the point spread and 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests following a straight-up loss. In contrast, Little Rock is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus .601 or greater opponents and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
I also like the fact that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series and that Arkansas State is looking to avenge an 89-80 loss at Little Rock. Finally, Arkansas State's offense is 0.8 points per game better than average (46.7% FG%; 38.6% 3-PT%), whereas Little Rock's attack is 5.4 points per game worse than average (45.0% FG%; 35.9% 3-PT%). I'll gladly take the points with the better team that possesses a superior strength of schedule.
Mike Rose
Auburn vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -23.5
Much of Auburn’s success on offense has stemmed from forcing turnovers and turning those blunders into transition points. The Tigers rank #14 in the country with 16.5 turnovers per game, so it must ramp up the pressure and force a number of Kentucky miscues to stick close in this one. Unfortunately, De’Aaron Fox and his mates only cough it up an average of 10.6 times per game which checks in as the #11 best mark in the country. If Auburn isn’t forcing turnovers and turning them into points, its overall shooting percentages won’t allow it to hang in this matchup.
Auburn secured one of its biggest wins of the Bruce Pearl era when these teams collided at Auburn almost a year ago to the day. The Tigers closed as 11.5 point home underdogs, but went on to score the 75-70 outright win by limiting the Wildcats to a 34.7 percent shooting percentage from the floor and forcing 11 turnovers. That’s a loss Isaiah Briscoe won’t soon have forgotten, so you can expect him to relay that message to his new teammates.
This just isn’t a good matchup for the visitors. Besides the fact that Auburn has dropped 10 straight at Rupp and fell by 35 points in its last visit, Kentucky doesn’t turn the ball over. That plays against the Tigers comfort zone that will in turn be hard pressed to put points on the board running its normal offense against a Kentucky defense that’s only given up an average of 64 points per game in its three games played since falling to UCLA. Look for Auburn to be put in its place in this spot.
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Wyoming Cowboys over the Nevada Wolf Pack, in Mountain West Conference play.
While I know Nevada (14-3 overall, 3-1 Mountain West) has the better record, but the Cowboys are in the right spot to score the upset win.
Nevada struggled against New Mexico because it was still celebrating a big win over San Diego State - the first in program history since the move to the Mountain West.
Now, because it is on the road, I think the Wolf Pack could suffer another letdown, this one at Wyoming, after scoring that miracle comeback at New Mexico. If you haven't seen the Pack's miraculous comeback with a little more than a minute left in the game, just Google it.
This is never an easy place to play, as Laramie is in the sticks. There is frigid weather and altitude to deal with, not to mention a hostile crowd. And if Wyoming starts firing up those 3s, and they land, this one will be over quick. Wyoming has out-scored its opponents by 132 points on 3-pointers.
With a deeper bench, and playing in Laramie, I'll take the home pup here.
4* WYOMING
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play winner on the home underdog Mercer Bears as they play host to conference rival Tennessee Chattanooga.
The Moccasins are the class of the Southern Conference and enter at 13-4 straight up, but the oddsmakers have been making it tough on them at the ticket window, as the Mocs have only covered 1 of their last 4 games, and they will be facing a desperate Mercer team that enters at 8-10.
Mercer is playing off a road underdog win at Samford, and they have captured 2 of their last 3 games straight up. The Bears have lost 3 in a row in this series, but they did take Tenn Chatt into overtime before bowing the last time these schools met last February in Macon.
Today is as good a day as any for Mercer to step up and pull an upset, but believe me, I will surely settle for the home underdog cover.
Take the Bears plus the points.
2* MERCER
BRANDON LEE
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas
Play: Oklahoma St +13.5
It's been a rough go of things for Oklahoma State to start out Big 12 play, as they are 0-4 after their most recent 86-96 loss at home to Iowa St. I believe it's created some big time value on the Cowboys, who are going to come out and give it their all here against the Jayhawks. On the flip side of things, I think this is a game Kansas could come out a little over-confident and not 100% locked in. The Jayhawks are now 15-0 since losing their opener to Indiana, so they are definitely feeling good about themselves. With how bad Oklahoma State's been playing, this is a game they probably feel like they can just show up and play, plus they could be looking ahead to Monday's big road game at Iowa State.
SEAN MURPHY
Texans vs. Patriots
Play: Patriots -15
I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set this line high enough in advance of Saturday night’s expected blowout in Foxborough.
Everyone sees it coming, which is a little bit concerning, but I still have to take a shot with the Patriots in a game they should win handily.
I have little faith in the Texans offense leading into this one. New England’s defense is a better unit than it receives credit for, and I’m confident it will come out with plenty of motivation and energy after being idle last week. The Texans certainly benefited from facing a Raiders team that had the wind knocked out of them (to say the least) when QB Derek Carr went down to a season-ending injury on Christmas Eve. They won’t be so fortunate this time around.
Defensively, the Texans may hold their own for a while, but it should only be a matter of time before Tom Brady and the Patriots offense break loose. A couple of second half turnovers from the Texans in desperation mode should keep this one from being interesting in the fourth quarter, and may just prove to be the difference between a win and a cover.
RAY MONOHAN
San Antonio / Phoenix Over 214
The Spurs and Suns get set for battle in Mexico City and the Over here has value. When teams typically travel out of the country for contests, they want to put on a show for the fan base. You'll get the best game from both sides and this is the case here on Saturday. This is a particularly good Over given how well the Spurs play offensively.
The Spurs are averaging 107 points per contest. That certainly bodes well when the Suns are giving up 112 points per game. Look for a back and forth contest here as we saw the Suns hit the Over in their first contest in Mexico City just a few days ago against Dallas.
Some trends to note. Over is 21-5 in Suns last 26 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 12-3 in Suns last 15 vs. NBA Southwest.
Look for another entertaining game in Mexico, as both teams give their best game here.
MATT JOSEPHS
Ball State vs. Buffalo
Play: Over 153
Ball State hits the road hoping to find some confidence after an 85-74 win over Miami-Ohio. Before that there was some talk about team chemistry and struggling on defense. This is a squad that has allowed over 70 points in all but two of their true road games this season. The good thing for them is that the offense has a lot of weapons inside and out. The Bulls are struggling having lost four of their last six games. Their offense hasn't been the issue with just one sub 70 point effort since November 25th. The problem comes on the defensive end where they've been beaten from long range several times. Ball State has gone over in all four lined road games and 10 of 12 overall. Buffalo has gone over in 19 of their last 29 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.
Brett Atkins
After getting hammered by 40 points on Thursday in San Antonio, look for the Lakers to play this "road" game against the Clippers and get routed once again.
The Lakers have now dropped their last pair of games by 40 to the Spurs, and 21 at home to the Blazers!
The Clippers have won 5 in a row, and they have covered in 4 of those 5 wins. The last time they faced the Lakers was on Christmas Day when the Lakers upended the Clippers 111-102 as the small home dog. That win was the first in the last 10 meetings for the Lakers in this series, so don't look for the Lakes to extend their series numbers to 2 in a row.
No issue looking for the payback angle to work, as the Clippers take it by double-digits, and the Lakers get routed for the third straight time.
4* L.A. CLIPPERS
SPORTS WAGERS
Oklahoma St +13½ over KANSAS
The #2 ranked Jayhawks are undefeated in conference play. KU is the class of the Big 12 and a perennial national power. They've won 52 games in a row at home and 15 straight games this season. We're not here to badmouth a damn good ball club, but we are here to highlight that this is not privileged information and so when you bet on Kansas, a massive premium is attached to them. Kansas wins a ton of ball games but that's not our concern. When you factor in the “great equalizer,” in the point spread, the Jayhawks aren't nearly as impressive and that’s the real issue here, which further points to the aforementioned premium that is once again in play. Kansas has been a low percentage play when laying the lumber by going just 1-4 in their last five games against the spread. The Jayhawks are not invincible and haven't really had to deal with high pressure defenses this season. KU has played just four teams in the top-100 in turnovers forced and just one in the Top 50. The 'Hawks are guard heavy and could be in in for a little chaos when ball hungry Oklahoma State visits Allen Fieldhouse.
The Cowboys actually handed the Jayhawks their last conference loss at Allen Fieldhouse so at the very least, they are not going to be intimidated in this setting. On paper, Oklahoma State appears to be coming into this one in poor form after an 0-4 start to Big 12 play but we're not ready to write them off yet. The Cowboys can score points in bunches by averaging 87.7 points per game, which is good for second in the conference. OSU is solid without the rock as well with a +3.8 rebound margin. The Cowboys are actually out-rebounding Kansas this season by over three boards a game. Additionally, these Cowboys are battle tested by playing the eighth toughest schedule in the country and looking damn good in a lot of those games. The Cowboys defeated Georgetown by 27, they beat UConn by eight, they lost to #2 Baylor by just four and to Maryland by just one. OSU’s four losses in a row combined with KU’s incredible home winning streak has this one priced even higher. We are in the business of finding value and in that regard, taking back this many points with a team as dangerous as OSU is true value indeed. This is the type of victory that gets teams into the tournament if they are on the bubble so the Cowboys will be ready to go.
E. TENN ST. -20½ over W. Carolina
Very rarely are you going to find a lower-tiered conference team like ETSU spotting 20 points or more to anyone, let alone a conference rival. The market propensity would therefore be to grab the points but doing so will likely cost you a bet because the Catamounts of West Carolina do not belong on the same court as the Buccaneers. Three of Western Carolina’s five victories have come against non-Division I programs, Hiwassee College, High Point and Mars Hill. Its other two victories were against App State and Jackson State but there was no line in the game versus Jackson State and WCU was a 10-point dog to App State. The Catamounts are a team that is used to losing by 30 points or more. In fact, they expect to. WCU has a 50-point loss and four 30 ++ point losses already this year. This is now its third consecutive game on the road after coming oh so close to beating VMI in its latest before falling by just one point. Incidentally, ETSU defeated VMI, 102-75.
The Buccaneers also have a 96-59 victory over Fordham and a 115-71 victory over the Citadel. The 13-4 Buccaneers are not shy about sticking it to someone and the timing to stick it to these dregs could not be better. You see, ETSU is coming off a rare conference home loss to UNC Greensboro so they are not going to take this opponent lightly at all and they are also in a foul mood because of it. The Buccaneers may not be covering point spreads at a high rate but they're still the class of the conference and if this game gets into the mid-70s possession wise, then ETSU has a good shot of scoring 90-plus points and covering very easily in the process. Attack, attack and attack some more.
Arkansas St +110 over ARKANSAS-LR
In the tale of the tape, this game features two teams with identical records of 11-6 and identical conference records of 2-2, thus, this game is pivotal in the Sun Belt race. Be that Little Rock gets this one at home, that they’re the defending Sun Belt Conference Champion, a 30-game winner in the 2015-16 season and orchestrator of an upset of a #5 seed Purdue in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, one can expect to pay a premium on this host. Little Rock is also a more renowned program compared to that of the Red Wolves, who may be better known for their football program. With all of the achievements of the Trojans and the geographic orientation of this contest, UALR is spotting what will be perceived in this market as a very economical amount of points. However, it’s not. Even though the number is small, the premium you are going to pay is actually large. The team that should win is taking back points or a tag, depending on how one plays it. We’ll choose the latter and here’s why:
Though these two teams have identical records, the Red Wolves have played a much stronger schedule, as their docket ranks 84th in terms of strength of schedule (SOS) compared to that of UALR whose itinerary sits at 330th. When you weigh in out of conference scheduling in particular, the stark contrasts are that much more evident, as the Red Wolves have played the 53rd ranked out-of conference SOS compared to UALR’s 333rd ranked out-of-conference SOS. Undoubtedly, the quality of competition will prime the Red Wolves to be the better prepared club for this contest. The Red Wolves are a dangerous team to sleep on, as this is an outfit that as a 22-point road pooch, pulled off a 78-72 win at Georgetown in the preliminary stages of the regular season. This is a team that took down both Tennessee-Martin and Chattanooga on the road and went muzzle-to-muzzle with a current 15-3 Minnesota squad on the road before the Gophers would get separation to close out the second half and win by just seven, 82-75. In fact a 9-2 run was required in the latter stages of the second half for Minnesota to get away. The market will see a recognizable host that is 6-2 at home and likely be enticed into swallowing the points. Don’t get caught in doing the same. Take the tremendous value being offered on the superior side and know that even if you lose, you went with the “best if it”. Chances are, you won't be ripping up your ticket.