Free Picks for Saturday, January 7th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Rocketman
Oakland vs. Houston
Play: Houston -4
The Oakland Raiders travel to Houston to take on the Texans on Saturday afternoon. Oakland comes in with a 12-4 SU overall record this year while Houston comes in with a 9-7 SU overall record on the season. Oakland was rolling right along until star QB Derek Carr went out. Oakland is allowing 257.5 passing yards per game and 375.1 total yards per game this season. Houston is 18-2 SU and 14-5 ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Houston is solid at home with a 7-1 SU record this season. Oakland was playing well enough to challenge for the Super Bowl but without their star QB their hopes are gone. We'll recommend a small play on Houston today!
Alan Harris
Youngstown St. / James Madison Over 63
Two teams that have been lighting up the scoreboard will meet when the Youngstown St. Penguins take on the James Madison Duke at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX on Saturday afternoon in the FCS Championship Game. Youngstown has put up and average of 42.6 PPG over their last five games while James Madison has been a scoring machine in their own right, putting up an average of 46.2 PPG over their last six. Both teams like to throw the ball all over the yard from what we have seen from them in their three playoff games as they have scored a combined 257 points in the postseason. Throw in the fact that these two teams have shown that they can score on a FBS defense (Youngstown put up 21 vs. WVU while JMU scored 28 on North Carolina) and we'll take the over as our Weekly Newsletter Free Play as we don't see either of these defenses getting consistent stops in Texas on Saturday afternoon.
Raphael Esparza
James Madison (-7.5) over Youngstown St.
I believe James Madison will win the championship game on Saturday. The JMU Dukes come into this championship game winning 11 straight games and 8 of those wins were by double-digits. Youngstown St. is coming into this game off a close win over Eastern Washington 40-38 and the Penguins needed a 20-7 4th quarter to win that game. Defense will be the key to this victory for the Dukes and I see James Madison getting control of this game in the second half and Saturday afternoon I see another double-digit victory for the James Madison Dukes.
Strike Point Sports
Creighton vs Providence
Play: Creighton
After a 10-2 start, Providence has now lost three straight, all by double figures. The Blue Jays are coming off their first loss of the year, a tough one at home to No. 1 Villanova. Look for Creighton to fire back strong in this one. The away team is the heavy favorite in this Big East clash, but that's because they have earned that. Chalk holds up as Creighton bounces back against the Friars.
Allen Eastman
Toronto vs Chicago
Play: Toronto
In this game I think that Toronto will be a small favorite. They have been the No. 2 team in the East and this team has been great on the road while going 12-5 SU. The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and they are 8-2 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record. Toronto is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall and Chicago has been struggling, going just 3-5 SU in their last eight games overall. The Bulls are below .500 on the year and they have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. I expect this to be a high-scoring game and I don't think that the Bulls will be able to slow down the Raptors offensively. Chicago is just 3-9 ATS against teams from the East, and I like the visiting Raps to get the job done.
Wunderdog
Oakland @ Houston
Pick: Houston -3.5
You have to feel for Oakland, a team that had not had a winning record since the 2002 season, and then started 12-3 only to see their hopes dashed with the loss of QB Derek Carr. They appeared to be on their way to a bye in the first round before losing their most important cog in Carr. It proceeded to get worse last week as backup Matt McGloin was injured as well. They will now go with third string QB Connor Cook. This is the first time ever an NFL rookie is making his frist start in the playoffs. Last week without Carr, the previously potent Raiders attack did not get in the end-zone in a 24-6 loss at Denver. Houston has some QB issues of their own, and the once benched Brock Osweiler will be at QB for the injured Tom Savage. Houston has managed no more than 27 points in any of their home games his season, but will surely get enough here to move on to the next round.
Jack Jones
Seattle Seahawks -8
The Seahawks have certainly been hit-or-miss with their results down the stretch. But I think that has them flying under the radar a bit heading into the playoffs. This line would certainly be higher than 8 had they finished stronger, but I think we are actually getting a little bit of value here now that they didn’t close well.
Just looking at final scores would suggest that the Seahawks didn’t play well down the stretch. But if you look at the box scores, they actually weren’t bad at all. The Seahawks outgained seven of their final eight opponents, including four of them by 116 yards or more. They had the six-turnover debacle against the Packers to give that game away, and they had little to play for in their narrow win over the 49ers last week and actually rested starters in the second half.
The Seahawks are still one of the best teams in the NFL, period. They rank 5th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 38.5 yards per game on the season. They are 2nd in yards per play differential, outgaining teams by 0.6 yards per play as they average 5.6 per play on offense and give up 5.0 per play on defense.
The Lions are the real frauds here. There’s no way they should even be in the playoffs. They trailed in the 4th quarter in 15 of their 16 games this season, but managed to actually win eight of those, giving Matthew Stafford the record for 4th quarter comebacks in a season. But the Lions’ true colors showed down the stretch.
If not for a hail mary at the end of the Packers’ game last week, the Lions would have lost their final three games all by double-digits. It started with a 6-17 road loss to the Giants as 4-point dogs in Week 15. Then they went on the road and lost 21-42 to the Cowboys as 6.5-point road dogs. The Lions had everything to play for in Week 17, and blew it with a 24-31 home loss to the Packers as 3.5-point dogs.
Matthew Stafford has clearly been bothered by his finger injury suffered in Week 14 against the Bears, a game in which he threw two interceptions in the second half and was fortunate to pull out a 20-17 home victory after trailing once again late. Stafford has exactly ONE career road victory against a team that finished the season with a winning record. He is 1-24 in such games. Stafford is now 5-45 lifetime in all games against teams that finished the season with a winning record.
And the raw numbers expose the Lions as well. They rank 24th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 16.0 yards per game. They are 25th in yards per play differential, getting outgained by 0.4 yards per play. They average 5.5 per play on offense and give up 5.9 per play on defense.
The Lions’ defense ranks 32nd in total defense, 32nd against the pass and 25th against the run according to Football Outsiders. They have allowed 73% completions and 33 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. They rank 30th in sacks (26), so the pass rush has been a big problem.
The Lions are in a tough travel spot here, too. They had to play Dallas on Monday Night Football in Week 16, Green Bay on Sunday Night Football in Week 17, and now they're on another short week having to travel across the country to the west coast. This will be their 3rd game in a span of 12 days. The Lions haven't won a playoff game since the 1991 season, and they have 10 straight playoff road losses coming in.
The Seahawks still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL as they are 7-1 SU at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 11.4 points per game. Seattle is a perfect 9-0 straight up in its last nine playoff home games, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points per game in the process.
Seattle is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Lions are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
Mike Anthony
Lions vs. Seahawks
Play: Over 44
The D of Seattle plays at a high standard every week. Russell Wilson and his TEs have been on the same page all season as they have gotten 8 TDs. The Seattle QB and his men across the middle will terrorize the LBs of Detroit at home where they have been getting their scoring rolling at a 28 ppg clip over the last 3. The Lions will be forced to pass the ball and I think we'll see quite a few points in this game. Detroit has been giving up around 24 / game in their 3 game losing streak - and I look for this game to go OVER THE TOTAL on Saturday night! Look for a 30-22 type of final score here.
Jim Feist
Saint Marys at San Francisco
Pick: Under
Conference play can mean tougher defense, as can rivalry games like this one. St. Mary's is 39-17-1 under the total on the road and 39-18-1 under following a straight up win. San Francisco plays its best defense at home and is 4-1 under the total following a double-digit loss at home. And the Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in San Francisco.
Chip Chirimbes
Indiana -10½
In the Are you sure about this department,' the Indiana Hoosiers are Ranked No. 25 and are in the mist of a three game losing streak. When the season started it appeared that the Hoosiers were worthy of such high praise after wins over No. 2 Kansas and No. 16 North Carolina but is now 0-2 in Big Ten play. Illinois is off a win over Ohio State and they know whats coming here. Indiana has won the last four in this series and last years two wins were by a combined 61 points.
Larry Ness
Detroit vs. Portland
Pick: Portland
All-Star PG Damian Lillard (26.8-4.5-6.3) had missed Portland's previous five games with a sprained left ankle but returned in the Blazers' 118-109 home victory over the LA Lakers on Thursday. He played 36 minutes, contributing 21 points and 10 assists. Lillard's backcourt partner, C.J. McCollum (23.3), had scored 43 and 35 points in the previous two games while running the point in Lillard's absence but moved back to his normal shooting guard position and collected 27 points and seven assists in Thursday's win. "Makes the game much easier when Dame's on the floor," said McCollum. "The defense can't key in on me as much when he's out there."
The Pistons arrive in Portland off Thursday's 115-114 home victory over Charlotte, a game the Hornets almost 'stole,' roaring back with a 44-point fourth quarter. Despite trailing by 19 points with just 10 minutes left,finest hour but it was a win. "We played a great three quarters," Detroit head coach Stan Van Gundy said afterward. "I'll talk about that." In particular, Van Gundy wanted to talk about the 7-3 Boban Marjanovic, who came out of nowhere with a season high in points (15) and a career high in rebounds (19) in 22 minutes off the bench. Backup center Aron Baynes was out with an ankle sprain and starter Andre Drummond got in foul trouble, which gave Marjanovic his opening (note: he had scored just seven points and grabbed seven rebounds in the previous seven games and averages just 3.3 PPG and 3.0 RPG on the season).
The Blazers are just 3-3 their last six but also 5-1 ATS. The Pistons are not a good road team, going 7-12 SU and ATS so far this season, while averaging just 98.7 PPG away from home. With Lillard back, lay the VERY small number with Portland.
Scott Spreitzer
Knicks at Pacers
Pick: Pacers
Nice win for the Knicks last night, outscoring Milwaukee 33-15 in the fourth quarter after trailing by 13 points through the first three. Carmelo Anthony, Courtney Lee, and Derrick Rose all saw a lot of minutes last night and will now have to lace them up against an improved Indiana team. The Pacers have won and covered four straight and the offense has been clicking on all cylinders since tweaking the backcourt a bit. Indiana has averaged 117.5 ppg during the four game run. Besides the 4-0 SU/ATS run, the Pacers have covered eight of their last nine home games against the Knicks.
Mike Rose
Texas at Iowa State
Play: Under 133.5
We’re yet to see the “Havoc” defense in Austin Smart brought with him over from VCU. Texas is averaging just 13.2 turnovers forced per game (#207), but has seen that stat bump up to 14.7 over its last three games. They’ve forced an average of 11.5 turnovers in their first two Big 12 contests, and done a solid job of limiting most opposition from scoring with it allowing just 66.5 points per game (#74) on 39.6 percent shooting from the field (#46). It’s also done a solid job defending the perimeter in allowing a paltry 29.5 percent success rate (#22) and only 6.4 makes per game.
While the Cyclones have been above average shooting the rock overall, one area where they’ve struggled has come at the charity stripe. Matt Thomas has knocked his free throws down at a near 95 percent clip, but save for Nazareth Mitrou-Long and Monte Morris, it’s been flat out ugly. As a team, ISU ranks No. 304 from the line and it will likely be sent there a ton in this matchup with Texas averaging 22 personal fouls over its last three games. This game is likely to be tight, so if you need the Clones to drain a few to get you over the hump, you’re likely going to come away disappointed.
Iowa State has held the upper hand in the recent rivalry winning five of the last six meetings and covering those games at a 3-2-1 clip. While the over cashed in five of those six meetings and stands 9-1 in the last 10, I expect this to be a close slower paced affair with both clubs ranked in the middle of the road in terms of tempo. Look for the defenses to reign supreme and keep this one low scoring
Tony Finn
Denver at Oklahoma City
Play: Denver +7.5
The Denver Nuggets travel downhill - to near sea level - to tangle with the Thunder in Oklahoma City Saturday night. The Western Conference tilt is slated to tip at 8:00 p.m. ET on the Chesapeake Energy Arena hardwood. The Nuggets have dropped four-straight Association tests and have lost seven straight overall to the Thunder. OKC fell 118-116 to rival Houston on Thursday night despite once again getting big numbers from their top scorer, 49 points, via rock star Russell Westbrook. The All-Star guard and his teammates are in the midst of a three-game slide and get the Nuggets in their worst stretch of 2016.
The Nuggets have allowed 125 points per game during their negative run Head coach Michael Malone has stepped up and challenged the players, primarily his veterans, and done so publically. Malone criticized the leadership after Tuesday's loss to the Sacramento Kings. When word got back to the players the veterans confronted their coach. Malone later apologized individually to the players he threw under the bus, as well, he groveled publicly to the press for his comments. Mission accomplished.
."I've talked to guys one-on-one. I want to make sure our young guys are staying positive, staying in the right direction," Malone said to the media. "And we do have good leadership. I think our locker room is tied together." Malone wants to keep his locker room together. In a nutshell the Denver bench boss is poking the bear.
Oklahoma City is doing what I projected they would back in October and that is struggle to be a part of the 2017 postseason schedule or be one of the Great Eight when it was time to start the Western Conference tournament. OKC dipped into seventh place in the West and one wouldn't blame the Thunder crew for looking past the lowly Nuggets as the club's next 11 tests are on the road. One should consider this Chesapeake Energy Arena event a road affair, as well, as it is the Thunder's first game home in over a week. The OKC squad haven't had time to unpack from the recent team excursion and are required to hit the road again as soon as this Saturday night contest is in the books.
Shooting guard Victor Oladipo is still trying to get healthy after missing a week of play to nagging injuries while power forward Kenneth Faried (back) missed the last three games but is expected to dress for this Saturday Night NBA tussle.
Denver coach Malone has done his job keeping his team focused and vocalized the importance of playing hard on both ends of the court. The Nuggets are in line for one of their better 2016-17 performances tonight. They have been challenged by their coaching staff, they don't have another game after tonight’s affair until Thursday, meaning the starters should be expected to see more minutes. The Nuggets can keep pace with the Thunder on the boards with big games from Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic.
In truth, the Nuggets have been a much better investment as a visitor this year and sport a plus-ROI against the spread when put in the position of a visitor. The Nuggets have a winning road ATS mark this season that that trend continues against a Thunder squad that has been porous as a favorite of 7-points or more this season going 1-4 in this role.