The Prez
Mississippi at Auburn
Play: Mississippi +3
The Rebels and the Tigers take the campus hardwood on Saturday night, a contest scheduled to tipoff at 6:00 p.m. ET on the Auburn Arena floor in Alabama. Neither of the football schools have earned a conference win yet this season but the Rebels have won eight straight and 11 of their last 13 head-to-head affair against the Tigers, including three in a row inside of Auburn Arena.
Ole Miss is in fact winless in SEC play this season but their rough and tumble schedule has prevented them from being in the position they are today, against an opponent they can handle. The Rebels were easily handled by the Wildcats losing 99-76 to Kentucky and as well dropping a league event to the Gators by the score of 70-63 in Florida.
The Tigers are winless in the early portion of the conference schedule but their losses have come against softer competition. Auburn dropped a 96-84 test on their home floor to the Georgia Bulldogs and an 80-61 final in Tennessee at Vanderbilt. Auburn coach Bruce Pearl's crew are simply not getting the job done defensively.
Both schools have been anything but efficient defensively but the Rebels are battle tested, ready to tangle with a level of talent closer to their own and they are monsters defending the glass. Ole Miss is the SEC’s top rebounding team out-boarding their foes this season by nearly 7 bounds per game. Mississippi has the edge offensively as well with a more balanced scoring and a deeper bench.
The Tigers' youth have yet to make the transition from inexperienced to confident. Auburn is one of college basketball's youngest squads. Pearl starts four freshmen in Danjel Purifoy (14.2 pts) and their Achilles in their youth in the backcourt. The Tigers send two freshman to the court to start each and every night. Mustapha Heron (15.9 pts ) and Jared Harper (13 pts). Not only are they required to orchestrate the offense they are also the team's leading scorers. This is a lot to ask from two frosh in a Power 5 conference.
Tonight's matchup pits two teams that play an up-tempo scheme. And while Ole Miss has had their issues defending this year they are more experienced across the board, bigger in the front court, and are more prepared with their rotations to win a high scoring event. Auburn allows 75 points per game this season.
The Tigers are not nearly physical enough in the paint nor do they have the bench to outmuscle and run with the Rebels. Auburn freshman center Austin Wiley is averaging only 3.3 rebounds per game and is likely to get schooled tonight by the physical front of Ole Miss. Behind the play of guard Deandre Burnett (19.1 pts) and frontcourt Sebastian Saiz (15.7 pts) leading the way and in combination with Terence Davis (11.8 pts) and Cullen Neal (10.8 pts) Ole Miss will prove to be too much for Pearl's crew tonight.
Oskeim Sports
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Play: Oakland Raiders +4
With the NFL Playoffs finally here, the Raiders travel to NRG Stadium to face the Texans in the AFC Wild Card game featuring two below-average signal callers – Brock Osweiler for Houston and Connor Cook for Oakland.
The big news, of course, is Oakland’s dire quarterback situation with starter Derek Carr lost for the foreseeable future with a broken leg and backup Matt McGloin less-than 100% after sustaining a shoulder injury in last week’s game at Denver.
That leaves third-string quarterback Connor Cook, a surprise fourth-round pick last spring (No. 100 overall) who threw for 9,194 yards with 71 touchdowns and 22 interceptions during his four-year collegiate career at Michigan State. Cook becomes the first NFL quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first career start in the playoffs.
Interestingly, Todd Marinovich is the only Oakland quarterback to start a playoff game as a rookie, and that experience was painful to watch for the Black & Silver. Marinovich threw four interceptions in a 10-6 loss to Kansas City in the 1991 playoffs.
Cook has played 30 career snaps in the NFL, all of which came against Denver last week after McGloin went down with a shoulder injury. The rookie gunslinger passed for 150 yards (14-of-24) and a touchdown with an interception and a lost fumble. Wide receiver Amari Cooper was impressed by Cook. “He’s just confident out there. He was just ripping them, making throws, stepping up in the pocket.”
Cook now faces a talented Houston pass rush led by Jadeveon Clowney, who recorded 6 sacks, a forced fumble and 52 tackles, including twelve for a loss in fourteen games this season. Houston’s defense ranks ninth in completion percentage allowed and its strength resides in pressuring the quarterback and forcing him out of the pocket.
Meanwhile, Houston gets a major boost with the return of starting running back Lamar Miller, who ran for 1,073 yards on 268 carries and five touchdowns in 14 games this season. Miller missed the last two games due to an ankle injury, but reports indicate that he is 100% healthy for Saturday’s playoff game.
Without Miller on the field, the Texans’ running backs combined for 95 yards in their win over the Bengals in Week 16 and 46 yards in last Sunday’s loss against Tennessee. Backup running back Alfred Blue finished last week’s game with just 28 rushing yards on 11 carries.
Needless to say, Houston offensive coordinator George Godsey is thrilled to have his star running back on the field for Saturday’s game. Miller will definitely help Houston’s stagnant attack that averaged just 17.4 points per game this season, the lowest point total among this year’s playoff teams. Oakland’s defense finished dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed (6.1).
Technically speaking, the Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last four games off a loss and 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread. However, Houston head coach Bill O’Brien is 18-2 SU and 14-5-1 ATS as a favorite, including 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS following a loss. The Texans are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five home tilts.
If the line reaches +4, I will lean with the Oakland Raiders. If the line drops to -3, I’ll lean with the Houston Texans. In other words, I will look elsewhere to invest my money in the NFL playoffs.
Mike Rose
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Play: Oakland Raiders +4
This is a rematch of the tilt that went down in Mexico City where the Raiders scored the 27-20 win and cover as 6' point favorites. The Texans let a pair of second half leads escape them by giving up huge scoring plays in the fourth quarter to allow those that laid the chalk with Oakland to secure the front door cover. Houston outgained the Raiders 354-325 and completely shut the Raiders ground game down limiting it to just 30 yards on 20 carries. It also held a near 13 minute advantage in time of possession.
I seriously have no clue where to begin to try and decipher how this game will play out. What I do know is that Houston dominated these team’s first go round, but Derek Carr’s amazing comeback and big play ability willed the Raiders to the win and cover. Oakland was gangbusters on the road earlier this season in winning and covering its first five, but struggled in its last three away from the Black Hole losing at Denver and Kansas City while struggling to dispose of San Diego. All three of those teams are division rivals however.
Connor Cook will be making history today in his first ever NFL and playoff start. That’s a ton of pressure for a youngster to deal with. I expect the Raiders to look to Latavius Murray and the rest of their ball carriers early and often. I just don’t trust O’Brien to make the right calls to lead his team to a win. I do however have faith in Jack Del Rio and his gambling ways. Just like he did to steal a win from the Saints way back in Week 1, look for him to have a major call that leads the Raiders to the huge road win and cover.
Cal Sports
Youngstown St at James Madison
Play: James Madison -7.5
While the Appalachian State upset over Michigan in 2007 opened many eyes regarding then called I-AA football it was North Dakota State winning the National Championship the last 5 years making it a a regular part of college football. North Dakota St, of course, saw their QD Carson Wentz get drafted as the #2 pick last year and start as a rookie for the Philadelphia Eagles this past NFL season.
North Dakota St plays in the Missouri Valley Football Conference as does Youngstown State. Early this season the Penguins traveled to the FargoDome and lost 24-3 to ND St. Youngstown St is now 12-3 with the other 2 losses coming at West Virginia (38-21) and at South Dakota State (24-10). James Madison represents the Colonial Athletic Conference and the Dukes only blemish in their record was when they traveled to Chapel Hill and lost to North Carolina (56-28). James Madison nocked of North Dakota St in the FargoDome to get to the finals. These teams have met 4 times prior with the last a decade ago. In the first round on the 2006 play-offs James Madison led 31-20 before Youngstown St scored the final 15 points scoring the game winning touchdown with 1:22 left.
Youngstown State is coached by Bo Pelini. Pelini who was Nebraska’s head coach from 2008-2014 is in his second season here. YSU has the FCS’ #21 offense averaging 432 YPG with the #47 scoring offense at 58.5 PPG. The defense is #19 allowing 324 YPG and their scoring defense is #9 giving up 19.4 PPG. YSU’s QB for this game is Hunter Wells who started as the teams 4th string QB and didn’t male his first start until October 29th. They have two RB’s with over 1,110 yards but it has been Jody Webb who has been the force down the stretch averaging 160 YPG the last 6. Darien Townsend leads with 535 yards receiving (16.4 YPC) while Alvin Baily leads with 40 receptions (11.1 YPC). The defense is led by the DL which leads the nation with 47 sacks thanks to the dynamic duo of Derek River (14 sacks) and Avery Moss (10 sacks).
JMU has the FCS’ #3 offense averaging 526 YPG and the #2 scoring offense putting up 48 PPG. On defense the Dukes are #31 in yardage (348 YPG) while allowing 21.7 PPG which is #20. The James Madison offense has had the same QB and RB start all 14 games. RB Khalid Abdullah was #2 in the FCS with 1,708 yards (6.3 YPC) while scoring 20 TD’s. QB Brian Schoor he for 2,890 with a 27-6 ratio while adding 543 yards and 10 rushing TD’s. Brandon Ravenel led the team in yards (720) and receptions (45) but 3 others had between 478-575 receiving yards. The defense is plays a bend but don’t break style and for comparison reasons only has 19 sacks this year. The Dukes did make 20 interceptions with Raven Green having 6.
My normal though process would be to take the better defensive team getting over a TD. However the Youngstown State Penguins have been very fortunate to be where they are. In their semi-final game YSU trailed 31-20 into the 4Q and got the game winning TD on a fantastic back shoulder catch with one second left. For the year the Penguins have now had five fourth quarter rallies to pull out wins and that is not something to bet on. James Madison has simply taken care of business and are #9 in turnover margin (+15) while Youngstown State is #54 (even).
Harry Bondi
Detroit / Seattle Over 43.5
This is a very low total for a game that features two defenses that are struggling badly as we enter the playoffs. The Lions defense is worn out, allowing 73 points the last two weeks and now they go on the road and play their third game in 12 days. Meanwhile, since losing some key players in the secondary, the once-mighty Seattle “D” has given up 57 points the last two weeks against the likes of Arizona and San Francisco and if there’s one thing the Lions excel at, it’s passing the ball so look for QB Matthew Stafford and the offense to get its share of points.
David Banks
Detroit @ Seattle
Pick: Over 44.5
If the final weeks of the regular season are any indication, the Detroit Lions are making an early exit from the postseason. The Lions were 9-4 and in clear control of the NFC North just three weeks ago. Then, they dropped three straight to the Giants, Cowboys, and Packers. The last defeat to Green Bay cost them the division title. Now, they must travel to Seattle and take on the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.
The advantage that Seattle has in this wild card playoff game may be insurmountable. In its previous nine playoff games at CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks have not lost. The long flight out west plus the noise inside the stadium on game day have left many Seattle opponents decimated. The Lions won’t be intimidated though. Last season, Detroit lost 13-10 on the same field and had a chance to win in the final two minutes.
For Detroit, a team that has just one win over a team with a winning record, they may have to find a way to run the football. The Lions running game is almost nonexistent. Quarterback Matthew Stafford will make plays, but he needs someone to have some success running the football. Seattle will rely on QB Russell Wilson (4,219 passing yards), WR Doug Baldwin (1,128 receiving yards), and the league’s third-best scoring defense. This will be the first Seahawks playoff game since 2010 without free safety Earl Thomas, who was injured and lost for the season.
Stephen Nover
Furman +9
Tennessee Chattanooga hasn't been playing well this season. The Moccasins aren't a fast-paced team either. So it's not a big surprise they are terrible when installed as a mid-size favorite failing to cover the past eight times when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points.
Furman, on the other hand, is very good in an underdog role especially in this spread range where the Paladins have covered the past six times when getting between 7 and 12 1/2 points.
Furman has four starters back from last season and showed its competitiveness when stepping up losing by just six points to Michigan and Georgia as double-digit road 'dogs. The Paladins have covered the past four in this series winning twice straight-up and never losing by more than eight during this span. Furman has covered all four of its true road contests this season.
Dr Bob
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
The Saturday Night Wild Card Game will feature two teams that have stumbled into the playoffs, with Seattle losing their all-world safety, Earl Thomas, and going 2-2 since his departure, while Detroit is on a current 3-game slide. Seattle has given up 25.3 points per contest sans Thomas, after giving up only 16.7 points per contest the previous twelve weeks. Seattle has never lost a game at CenturyLink field during the playoffs as the 12th man has helped the Seahawks go 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS since Paul Allen created the loudest football stadium. While Stafford has never won a playoff game in his two tries, he has thrown for over 300 yards in each contest, averaging a healthy 7.8 NYPP in elimination bouts.
Seattle has allowed greater than 7.0 NYPP in four of the five games Earl Thomas has missed, while holding every other QB not named Tom Brady to under 7.0 NYPP in 2016. The Seattle pass defense has fallen to the 17th ranked defense in the league while becoming highly susceptible to the deep ball without Earl playing centerfield. Offensively the Seahawks have dealt with a bad offensive line all year, as Russell Wilson is being sacked at the 6th highest rate in the league and the running attack is only gaining 3.8 yards per carry. The Lions have trailed in the 4th quarter of every game this season, going 9-7 in aggregate. With a -0.5 Game Control rating and -0.4 yards per play differential the Lions are a below average team that will rely on a banged up Matthew Stafford to once again come through in the high leverage situations. Even with the “best white running back in the league”, the Lions RB’s have only averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the season.
The advanced stats model shows inefficient offenses and value on the road dog, so Lions (+8 ) and UNDER (43.5) are leans as both are below model-thresholds of plays.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse -4
Pittsburgh is in a letdown situation after a huge overtime win over Virginia as the Panthers shot 53.7 percent from the floor and made 13-of-21 from three-point range. Jamel Artis scored 24 points for Pittsburgh and Michael Young added 19 points. Syracuse comes off a 70-55 win over Miami with Andrew White III scoring a team-leading 22 points while pulling down 10 rebounds and Tyler Lydon adding 20 points. The Orange is holding opponents to just a .395 shooting percentage and Pittsburgh doesn't figure to shoot that well again. The Panthers are 5-12-2 ATS their last 19 games dating to last season and 14-36-1 ATS after an ATS win.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +3½ over HOUSTON
History will be in the making for this one and what that is going to do is deter folks from getting behind the Raiders, You see, Raiders QB Connor Cook will be the first rookie quarterback to ever make his starting debut in the playoffs. You talk about a Wild Card and the Raiders are now forced to use an individual one here and it would be near impossible to predict how he’ll perform. In case you’re not aware of who Connor Cook is, allow us to introduce him.
Cook spent the 2012 season as a backup to Andrew Maxwell for the Michigan State Spartans. After Maxwell was benched, Cook helped lead the team to a win in the 2012 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. He entered the 2013 season as the backup to Maxwell again. After Maxwell struggled, Cook took over as the starter after the first game and remained the starter the rest of the year. He led Michigan State to a 34-24 victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game and was named MVP after throwing for 304 yards with three touchdowns. He then led the Spartans to a 24–20 victory over the Stanford Cardinal in the 2014 Rose Bowl. He was named the offensive MVP after throwing for 332 yards and two touchdowns. Cook finished the season with 2,755 passing yards and 22 touchdowns. As a junior in 2014, Cook passed 3,214 yards with 24 touchdowns. He led the Spartans to 2015 Cotton Bowl, where they defeated the higher-ranked Baylor Bears, 42–41. As a senior in 2015, Cook led the Spartans to a 16–13 win over Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game and was named MVP for the second time in three years. The victory earned them a spot in the College Football Playoff (2015 Cotton Bowl), where they lost to the Alabama Crimson Tide, 38-0. Cook finished the season with 3,131 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, completing 56% of his passes. He won the 2015 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the nation's outstanding senior or fourth year quarterback. For his career he completed 673 of 1,170 passes for a school record 9,194 yards with 71 touchdowns and 22 interceptions. The point is that Connor Cook is very used to the big stage and bright lights. A playoff game in Houston is not going to faze him one bit, as he’s played in more hostile environments and in front of much bigger audiences than this one. For those undecided about which way to lean here, we’d be much more concerned about what looms on the other side.
John Elway knew exactly what he was doing when he allowed Brock Osweiler to walk at the end of last year. Osweiler has made Elway look like a genius. No QB that we can think of has looked worse than Osweiler or has put up worse numbers. Thus far, Osweiler has thrown 15 TD’s while having 16 of his passes picked off. That’s not a good ratio. His passer rating of 72.2 ranks 30th of 30 qualified starters. His 5.80 yards per play also ranks 30th. So, while we have no idea what we’re going to get from Cook, we have a pretty damn good idea what we’re going to get from Osweiler and it’s not likely to be a pretty sight if you bet the host.
This market is going to have a hard time backing Oakland off that ugly loss last week to Denver and with a 3rd string QB making his first start. We say, “Bring it on” because we know we’re getting more points than we should be and we also know that the Texans might be the worst team in history to ever make the playoffs but there’s more. About this same time last year, the Texans were in the AFC Wild Card game against Kansas City. With Brian Hoyer at QB, the Texans entered as a 3-point dog and left as a 30-point loser. Last year’s edition of the Texans was better than these dregs. If you are using the third string rookie QB angle to bet against the Raiders, we suggest you find another reason because we assure you that the odds makers are aware of it and have figured it into the number. Finally, do you really want to spot points with a bad Texans’ club that hasn’t won a game by more than five points since October? To us, this game is an absolute no-brainer and if we’re wrong, I’ll drink a bottle of ketchup on You-tube before the start of next season. Raiders outright is the call but we must take the sweet points being offered.
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO +112 over Winnipeg
Buffalo is coming off a tough overtime loss in Chicago on Thursday but they went toe-to-toe with the mighty Blackhawks and looked good in doing so. The Sabres had three separate leads in that game but could not seal the deal. Chicago scored a late goal to tie it and eventually won it in OT. Some teams may be devastated after such a loss but that is a hostile building and if there is such a good thing as a good loss, that was one this young Sabres team can use as a stepping stone. Prior to their loss in Chicago, the Sabres blew the doors off the Rangers 4-1 on Tuesday night. Buffalo is in good form after the break and as usual, they are undervalued at home. The return of Ryan O'Reilly can also not be ignored. He's a dynamic player that doesn't get the attention he deserves.
We have backed the Jets in their last two games and cashed both times but this is the perfect spot to fade them in. After back to back wins against the Panthers and Lightning, Winnipeg must now leave sunny Florida for frigid Buffalo, which is the final game of this road trip. The Jets haven't won three games in a row all season. Prior to their last two wins, the Jets dropped back-to-back home games to the Islanders and Blue Jackets. A loss to Columbus is nothing to hang one’s head over but a 6-2 loss to the Islanders is. It’s not just that loss that though. The Jets have more disturbing losses than just about every team in the NHL over the past three years. Every time it seems like it is ready to take that next step, Winnipeg comes up with a string of unexplainable stinkers. We have learned to not trust the Jets in games they are expected to do well in. After two straight wins and with a game against Calgary on deck on Monday, this is precisely the type of game that the Jets usually fall flat on their faces in.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO ST -7 over Air Force
Air Force is getting way too much credit here because they are an above .500 Mountain West team but quite frankly, it couldn’t be uglier. The Falcons are 8-7 after playing just three true road games. In those three road games, they are 0-3 against New Mexico State, Army and Wyoming. The Falcons out of conference schedule ranks 304th in the country and their overall schedule ranks 291st in the country. This is a team that does not travel well and that is really up against it here again.
Colorado State has a seven-point loss at Stanford and a one-point loss at Boise State but its best player, Gian Clavell has only played in seven games and missed the Stanford game. Clavell averaged 20.8 points and 6.9 rebounds in 10 games last year and is rounding into peak form right about now. He’s a great scorer from anywhere on the floor and is ready to take over. Playing without Clavell for an extended period of time figured to have served this team well. Other players had to step up and be relied upon and as a result, the Rams will take a 10-6 record into this home game along with a 2-1 conference mark. With Clavell, Emmanuel Omogbo and Prentiss Nixon, the Rams might just have the three best players on the court here and we trust we’re getting a very decent number to swallow here.
Oregon St +10 over WASHINGTON
The Beavers stock couldn’t be lower right now and that is precisely the time to step in because the points being offered are absolutely inflated. OSU is 4-12. They have losses to Lamar, Tulsa, Southern Oregon, Savannah State, Long Beach State and Portland among others. The Beavers have also opened up conference play with three straight losses but don’t think this team isn’t dangerous because they are. The Beavers are likely without Tres Tringle again but there’s a chance he plays and if he does, it’s a bonus for us. Injuries are something we seldom discuss because they are factored into the line already. This injury, however, means even more inflated points because the Beavers are a team that not many want to get behind right now. However, OSU has made some adjustments. They lost by just 13 to UCLA and by just seven to USC and this is not a step up in class.
This wager is more about fading the Huskies than it is about backing the Beavers. Markelle Fultz is a one-man show but he can’t do it on his own. However, the market puts too much emphasis on Fultz’s presence because he’s likely an NBA first-rounder. The problem is that the Huskies lost their top three scorers from last season’s team that went 9-9 in conference play. This season, the Huskies are 7-7 overall and 0-2 in conference play. They were buried by 22 points by Oregon in their last game, which had to sting and hurt their already fragile confidence. Indeed the Huskies have played a tougher schedule than the Beavers but that doesn’t say much when those tougher opponents are steamrolling them. Washington lost by 27 to Gonzaga, by 22 to Oregon and by 13 and 15 points in back-to-back games against TCU. This turbulent path that the Huskies are on is one we are not going to ignore. For a freshman, Fultz is carrying a massive load on his shoulders and the team overall is relying on several newcomers. The Huskies are young and they are talented and if everyone sticks around they should be difficult to beat in a year or two but right now, this team is not ready to take on the role of a big favorite and spot double digits to a conference foe.
San Diego St +131 over BOISE ST
The buy-low, sell high angle is worth exploiting in every sport and college basketball just might be the best sport of them all to apply it in because there are so many teams with misleading records. Boise State is one such team. The Broncs come in with a 10-4 record along with a 3-0 conference (Mountain West) record. BSU has now reeled off six in a row and even came within five points of Oregon in a 68-63 loss. However, we’re more interested in the line than the final score and in that regard, the Broncos came in as an 18-point dog against Oregon. While they deserve credit for hanging with them, one never knows the state of mind of a big favorite and there is a great chance that knowing they were an 18-point favorite, the Ducks showed up in body only. Regardless, that was just one game and putting a lot of weight on one game is not in our toolbox.
What sticks out more is that three of the Broncos last six wins have been decided by three points or less and two of them have been decided by one point. That’s what is referred to as luck because essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do are either lucky (or unlucky) thus, Boise State is a free throw away from being an 8-6 squad or even worse, one possession away in three of its last six wins from being a .500 team. The Broncs started the year 4-4, which is interesting considering what we just suggested regarding luck.
For three years, center Skylar Spencer and power forward Winston Shepard served as the equivalent of Damon Harrison-like run-stuffers for the Aztecs, occupying huge swaths of space and shaping typical Steve Fisher teams: top-10 defensive efficiency rooted in smothering opponents inside, plus strong rebounding at both ends. Those big men are gone now, as is backup center Angelo Chol. San Diego State has had to retool as a team driven by guards Jeremy Hemsley and Trey Kell. Actually, we should say true guards because last season the Aztecs were so reliant on skyscrapers that about half the time, they ran their offense through Shepard in the low post. The result is that the Aztecs are are forcing turnovers far more often (steals on 11.3 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 33rd in the NCAA, up from 213th last year). They're making more accurate passes, cutting down on their own turnovers and they have even opened up their shooting, taking a downright shocking 42.6 percent of attempts from behind the arc (ranking 45th, up from 237th).
San Diego State has had to deal with injuries and was wildly uneven in non-conference play, but that's the kind of high-risk, high-reward team we're interested in. The Mountain West has sent an average of three teams a year to the Big Dance, but just one, Fresno State, got a ticket last season. Thus, this conference is going to be in a dogfight and right now San Diego State is 0-2 in the conference and just 8-6 overall. However, the Aztecs have an impressive 12-point win over Cal this season and according to Kem Pom, they have been the 334th unluckiest team in the country. SDSU’s two conference losses were by six and three points to New Mexico and to a 13-3 Nevada squad, respectively. Analytically speaking, Boise State is not in the same class as the Bulldogs, Lobos, Wolf Pack or Aztecs and of all those teams, this Aztecs’ outift might be the best of them all. The Aztecs are now an 0-2 in the conference dog that is backed into a corner that is playing an overvalued 10-4 squad that is 3-0 in the conference and we’re suggesting that the most bite in this contest will come from the animal that is not only backed into a corner but is the superior team too. SDSU outright is the call.
Brandon Lee
Tennessee +12½
I'll gladly back the Volunteers as a double-digit dog in this SEC clash between two programs that don't really like each other. The perception here is that Florida is the much better team, as the Gators enter at 11-3, while Tennessee is just 8-6. The Volunteers record is misleading, as they played a brutal non-conference schedule that included the likes of Wisconsin, Oregon, UNC and Gonzaga. While they lost to all those teams, they were competitive, which is critical here with this big spread. Coming off a 78-82 home loss to Arkansas, a game they feel like they should have won, I expect the Vols to lay it all the line here against the Gators. Florida has won 4 straight, but failed to cover as a 13-point home favorite against Ole Miss last time out and I believe this Tennessee team is better than the Rebels, yet are catching almost the same number.
Matt Josephs
Cleveland State vs. Northern Kentucky
Play: Northern Kentucky -8½
Its a tale of two teams in this one. Cleveland State is 5-10 on the season and have lost five of their last seven games. They've been awful on the road with four efforts of 55 points or less. They cannot shoot the ball very well and will struggle against NKU's defense. The Norse have won eight of their last 10 covering all but three lined games all season long. They've got a very efficient offense that should be able to get whatever they want against CSU. They've got five double digit home wins. The lower number probably has to do with the slower pace that the Vikings play, but I think that they won't be able to keep up.
Alex Smart
Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -2½
Pittsburgh enters this game off a huge upset of Virginia last time out 88-76 as 6 point dogs, and are now in an emotional letdown situation and vulnerable vs a Syracuse side, that would love to revenge three straight losses to the Panthers last season. It must be noted that College Basketball underdogs like Pittsburgh - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, a top-level team (80% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 8-27 ATS L/35.PITTSBURGH is also 0-7 ATS L/7 off an upset win as an underdog.
SYRACUSE is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts after 15+ games dating back to last season.
I know Jim Boeheims Orange squad does not inspire bettors, because of a poor start, but Pittsburgh now in a natural letdown spot, and just 1-4-1 vs below .600 opposition this season, is a true dog, here in a bad snadwich spot as they look forward to Louisville their next opponent.