Mike Lundin
Pistons vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -2½
The Portland Trail Blazers are coming off a 118-109 win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. Damian Lillard returned from a five-game absence due to an ankle injury and recorded 21 points and 10 assists. Portland went 2-3 in his absence, but the Blazers are a solid team with him in the lineup. The Detroit Pistons defeated Charlotte 115-114 on Thursday, but they failed to cover the spread and are 1-4 ATS through their last five games. Detroit took the two meetings last season by an average of 18.5 points, but the Pistons are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Portland and I expect the Blazers to come through in front of the home town crowd tonight.
Brad Wilton
Providence held off a game challenge from Georgetown earlier this week at home to improve to 10-0 straight up on the hardwood, but I think the Friars will have issues with the high-flying Blue Jays who enter Rhode Island off a road win and cover at St. John's to move to 14-1 on the year with their lone loss coming to Villanova.
The Blue Jays are averaging just over 81 points per game for their last 5, and 86 points per game for the season. That type of scoring is something the Friars won't be able to keep up with, as Ed Cooley's crew is averaging almost 10 points per game less for the year.
Creighton has lost the last 5 series meetings both straight up and against the spread to Providence, so a big-time revenge angle is also in play for the visitors this afternoon.
Providence has been playing well, but Creighton is the more complete team, and they have covered 5 of 6 away from home, and 10 of their 14 lined games on the season.
Going to lay it with the Jays.
3* CREIGHTON
Bob Valentino
My free play for tonight is on No. 19 Saint Mary's, as it will have no trouble going into San Francisco and winning this one by at least 20.
The Gaels (13-1, 3-0 WCC) arrive in the midst of a rugged 10-day, four-game stretch, two days after passing a huge test on Thursday, by beating Brigham Young, 81-68, at home. Now they head into Frisco, which hasn't been playing up to snuff of late.
And with a Jan. 14 game at No. 5 Gonzaga on the horizon, there is no time for coach Randy Bennett's bunch to let down.
Good thing is, San Francisco is 11-5 overall, so there the Gaels won't be looking past the Dons, who scored a neutral-court win over Utah during the nonconference. That was when they were playing better.
The Dons dropped to 1-2 in conference play after a 95-80 home loss to Gonzaga on Thursday.
Look for 6-foot-11 center Josh Landale to have another big game, after he just made 11 of 13 shots and scored 26 points against BYU. He is a guy who can handle the post, shoot from the perimeter, and also dish the rock. The other night he served six assists against the Cougars. Landale is averaging 18.2 points on 65.6 percent shooting while grabbing 9.6 rebounds per game this season, and is very hard to defend.
The Gaels also have guards Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon, who are a combined 9 of 20 from 3-point range in their three league game.
I'm laying the road chalk here.
4* SAINT MARY'S
Vegas Butcher
Houston Texans -4
The offensive prowess of the Raiders vs the defensive strength of the Texans. That’s what this game was supposed to be. But of course after Carr got hurt, and Oakland lost Penn for this one (their best O-lineman), the Raiders’ offense won’t be nearly close to the top-5 level of the regular season. Actually, I think they’ll be on the same level as Houston’s if not worse. So what you really have here is two bottom-5 offenses, and a Raiders’ bottom-10 D vs Houston’s top-10 Unit. My model has this one at PK actually, and I believe that if Carr was healthy, the line would probably be -2.5 OAK (accounting for the fact they’re a better team and public’s perception in play). But the bookmakers have made an adjustment of 6.5 points for his absence, thus the line is HOU -4. If I’m calculating this off my statistical model though, the Texans should be -6.5 in this game, not -4. I think there’s actually value on them at the current number. Houston’s D is healthy (except Watt of course, but they’ve played without him most of the year), their secondary has some really good playmakers, and I just don’t see how Cook, in his first career start, will move the ball in this one. Running the ball into 8-man fronts is not going to get it done. Houston, as bad as they are offensively due to Osweiler, at least have a weaker defense to contend with. Lamar Miller should be well rested (missed last 2 weeks), and as bad as Osweiler is (probably the worst starting QB in the league), at least he’s been playing with the team all (most) of the year. As long as Cook isn’t the second coming of Dak, I think Oakland is going to really really struggle in this one. Grab the home team with confidence.
Bruce Marshall
Gonzaga at Portland
Pick: Gonzaga
Though this is a Portland home game, Gonzaga fans think nothing of the near six-hour drive from Spokane and usually descend upon the Chiles Center in droves, especially for a weekend game. So, with a pro-Zag crowd on an enemy court, Mark Few's team will probably feel at home as it continues its unbeaten run this term. Gonzaga is more athletic than usual in this season's backcourt following the addition of Pac-12 transfer big Gs Nigel Goss-Williams (via Washington; 14 ppg) & Jordan Mathews (via Cal; 11 ppg), two of five DD scorers in the Zag lineup. Matchups even worse for Pilots than in recent seasons. Should Portland wear its road uniforms?
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -110 over Montreal
OT included. Montreal is rested while the Maple Leafs are not after playing on the Rock last night. Combine that with Carey Price being in goal and the odds makers has this priced like a fair fight when it is anything but. You see, Montreal is missing key pieces all over the place from Andrew Shaw’s net presence to Alex Galchenyuk’s feistiness and goal scoring ability. Throw in Paul Byron, Brandon Gallagher, David Desharnais and Andrei Markov and the Habs are going to need Price to win this one for them because they are not going to outplay the Leafs. Montreal was outshot by Dallas in its last game 41-33. The Canadiens have a mere two wins in regulation over their past 11 games with a remarkable six of those games going into OT including the past five in a row. Playing their seventh straight road game in a row with a slew of key players on the rack, Montreal is ill-equipped to go toe-to-toe with this energetic bunch in Toronto.
The Maple Leafs built a quick 4-0 lead last night in New Jersey and sat on it the rest of the way on route to a 4-2 victory. The Leafs were outshot 32-14 but it matters not because that is not the norm for Toronto. What we know for sure is that the Maple Leafs are becoming a juggernaut team. From the point the Leafs traded Phil Kessel, this has been an organization going all-in on young talent; accordingly, their roster is bursting at the seams with players who still get asked for identification at drinking establishments. The Leafs farm team, the Marlies, was among the most exciting and well-run AHL teams ever the past two seasons. The amount of resources the Leafs put into their AHL team by choice (and because they're one of the few organizations who can afford to do so) was greater than most of the league by a wide margin and it’s now paying off. William Nylander would have been a top candidate for the AHL MVP if he had played a full season. In the junior ranks, Mitch Marner was the Ontario Hockey League MVP of the regular season. Austin Matthews is a lock for rookie of the year and might just be one of the top five players in the league right now. The Maple Leafs have picked up points in eight straight on the road and in 10 of their last 11 overall, which includes six wins in their last seven games. The Leafs have lost twice to Montreal this season both by scores of 2-1 and both before the end of November. Toronto has now learned how to win and has all the confidence in the world to do so. Chances are they are not going to lose to this inferior rival three times in a row but most importantly, we get the Leafs at a bargain basement price for very likely the last time this season at home. We’re not going to miss it.
COLUMBUS -1½ +236 over N.Y. Rangers
In our continued quest to prove that spotting -1½ goals is a better option than spotting a half goal when playing favorites, we’ll put that to the test once again here. The theory is that if you spot a half goal, your team has to be up by at least one goal for you to cash and if they are up once goal, the losing team will pull the goalie. There’s also a chance the favorite will be up by two or more goals.
Alright, we all know the recent plight of the Jackets so here’s what is supposed to happen. After such a long winning streak, the market and talking heads are expecting the Jackets to come back down to Earth now that the winning streak has been snapped. That may indeed happen but these Jackets are so determined to prove that it wasn’t a fluke and they’re so good that we don’t see it happening. Even in their loss to the Caps on Thursday, the Jackets played great. They were outshooting the Caps 17-6 at one point but were down 2-0. A bad game by Bobrovsky and some inevitable puck luck going against the Jackets made the final score look a lot worse than the performance. Now the Jackets can forget about all the attention and do what they do best, which is winning hockey games. Everything this host does is legit. They’re an outstanding defensive team with one of the more balanced and efficient offenses in the league. Whether it’s above the surface or below, the Jackets outstanding numbers match their record and now they get to host the biggest frauds in the league. Furthermore, this game was sold out weeks ago so Nationwide will be one of the more electric atmospheres in the league. Lastly, without saying a word, these Columbus players know that their beloved coach wants this one badly and we absolutely trust them to deliver. Incidentally, we also love that Curtis McElhinney is in goal for Columbus because he's outstanding.
The New York Rangers last four games have come against Colorado, Arizona, Buffalo and Philadelphia. The Rangers scored five times on 28 shots on Philly and were the second best team on the ice…again. The best three teams that the Rangers have played over their last 20 games was Pittsburgh twice and Minnesota once. The Rags were defeated by the Wild, 7-4 and lost both games to Pittsburgh by scores of 6-1 and 7-2 respectively. The Rangers 6-3 win over Arizona last week was a 3-3 tie late in the third before the Rags scored a PP goal to break the tie and then they added an empty netter. The Rangers strength of schedule is ranked 27th in the league and their Corsi against is ranked 21st. They have been exposed as a weak team numerous times in the past against elite competition and the competition here is 100% elite. The Jackets are certainly underpriced at -123 or thereabouts, which makes them a great value play straight up. However, we’re going to be much more aggressive and take back the massive price for a bigger win.
RAY MONOHAN
Pistons vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -3½
The Trail Blazers welcome in the Pistons on Saturday and with this low of a spread, Portland has some value.
The Trail Blazers received a huge boost last game as Damien Lillard returned to the lineup. While he was out, G C.J. McCollum stepped up in a huge way and carried this Portland team.
With the duo now back together and Lillard healthy this is a nice spot for them against a Pistons team that really struggles on the road. Detroit enters play Saturday just 7-12 away from the Palace.
Some trends to note. Pistons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Pistons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
With how bad Detroit is on the road, this is a nice number on Portland.
DAVE PRICE
Utah Jazz -4
After blowing leads to both the Celtics and Raptors in their last two games, the Jazz will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Those weren't bad losses at all as those are two of the best teams in the East, and the Jazz hung right with them until the last few minutes. Now they take a big step down in class against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are just 11-25 on the season. The Timberwolves are also in a tough situation here as they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 105-112 loss in Washington last night. The Jazz own the Timberwolves, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings with all 4 victories coming by at least 9 points.
Brad Wilton
For sure this is not going to be a "pretty" game, as Oakland must give third-string quarterback Connor Cook his first professional start - and doing so in Oakland's first playoff game since January 12th of 2003! - on the road against one of the better defense in the league.
Unfortunately for the Raiders, Derek Carr suffered a broken leg on Christmas Eve, and his backup Matt McGloin was forced out with a shoulder injury in Oakland's last game of the regular season.
The QB situation alone dictates a play on the host today, even if the host team has quarterback issues of their own. Brock Osweiler who was signed in the off-season for a pretty penny was deemed ineffective and benched in favor of backup Tom Savage. Savage didn't really distinguish himself, but he did suffer a concussion that will leave him a spectator for this game. Back to Osweiler the Texans will turn, and as bad as he has been, he is still a better option under center than what the Raiders have to offer.
Remember that running back Lamar Miller who has missed the last 2 games with an ankle injury is expected back in uniform and ready to go for this tilt.
Houston got shutout at home in this round last year by Kansas City, but with an expected game plan of letting Osweiler just "manage" this game, Miller getting loose for some yards running the ball, and the Houston defense imposing their will on the youngster Cook, I look for the Texans to get the job done at home where they have won 7 of their 8 games this year.
I am not calling for a blowout by any means, but home field advantage at this time of the year means something, and so does having your starting QB available.
Oakland can look to the future for sure when Carr is healthy once again, but right now is a bad time for them to be playoff-bound.
Texans the call.
3* HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
My complimentary NFL winner for today is on the Oakland Raiders plus the points against the Houston Texans. I toyed with this game all week, looking at the future team of Las Vegas, and then to the Texans before settling back on the Silver and Black.
And now that you've read the same, generic reason everyone else is using as an excuse to take Houston, let's get down to brass tax with the intelligent reason to play the road underdog.
I know the Raiders have rookie third-string quarterback Connor Cook under center against Houston's top-tier defense, but there's more to this game than Oakland's quarterback. Looking past that, I have to consider the Raiders' remarkable turnaround and the effort they're going to bring into this game - in spite of the loss of MVP candidate, quarterback Derek Carr.
Besides, the Texans are also in the midst of a quarterback shakeup, as Brock Osweiler returns to the starting lineup after being benched two weeks ago. And I got news for you, if Osweiler is under center, I'm automatically looking to side with the opposition.
With Osweiler under center, Houston's passing game has been one of the worst in the league. During the regular season he threw more interceptions (16) than touchdowns (15).
Look, the Raiders have a solid shot at winning this game, as they're going to bring every ounce of talent they do have into this game. They will use one of the best special teams units in the league to put the Texans in uncomfortable spots, and keep this one close.
Rookie quarterback or not, I'm siding with the Raiders here.
5* OAKLAND
Eric Schroeder
My money is on the Seattle Seahawks, as I have them annihilating the Detroit Lions in rather easy fashion.
Trust me, I'd much rather watch a competitive game on a Saturday night, if I'm to be confined to my television set on a Saturday night for playoff football. But even with consistent offensive-line issues, Seattle's Russell Wilson will still be able to turn this one vertical when he wants, with his more than capable receivers, including 6-foot-7 Jimmy Graham’s whose size advantage will be a huge edge.
Sure, Matthew Stafford has a history of bringing the Lions from behind, which would help them stay inside a big number, but I don't know if I trust coach Jim Caldwell’s squad as a whole - especially in this stadium, against this defense.
The Lions won eight of their nine games by a total of 30 points and they are in the second-loudest stadium in the league, a long way from Motown.
Backdoor covers are always possible, but they're rare in the postseason, and if the Lions fall far behind early on in this one, they won't even make it into the backyard.
Lay the home chalk.
1* SEAHAWKS
Brett Atkins
It's time! It's time for Toronto to exorcise some demons and dump Chicago.
This is the first meeting of the year between the two Eastern Conference rivals, and it really hasn't been much of a "rivalry", as the Bulls have not only won the last 9 series meetings dating back to 2014, but they have also covered the last 9 series meetings as well!
Chicago brings two wins in a row into this game, including a big win over Cleveland their last time out. They take on a Toronto team that was able to shake off the remnants of a 1-3 end to their 6 game road swing with a gut-check comeback win on Thursday at home over Utah.
The Raptors are 24-11 straight up for the year, and they have done a better-than-average job of covering on the road this season at 12-6 against the spread. The Bulls despite their road win over the Cavaliers are just 9-9 against the spread at the United Center this season.
Let's see if Chicago can run the win streak to 10 straight over Toronto, I say they cannot.
Raptors as the small road favorite the call.
4* TORONTO