Free Picks for Saturday, November 11th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TENNESSEE AT MISSOURI
PLAY: MISSOURI -11
If you’d have suggested to me back in early September that I would even give consideration to spotting double digits with Missouri against Tennessee, I’d have suggested you get off the hallucinogens as quickly as possible.
It’s now November, and based on the way things are going for the Volunteers and Tigers, I now think that’s the only way to play.
Tennessee finally managed to win a game, but I’m not sure defeating Southern Mississippi means very much. And it’s not like this was some sensational performance by Tennessee. The Vols did enough to win the game.
Missouri is suddenly a hot entry. Granted, blowout wins over Idaho and UConn don’t mean much, and Florida was absolutely horrible last Saturday in its first game under interim coach Randy Shannon.
But the Tigers have some real enthusiasm right now and I simply do not believe that’s the case at Tennessee. Butch Jones has to be as lame duck as it gets among the coaches on the hot seat. I don’t see any real areas of strength on the Volunteers. Mizzou has its offense in high gear and now even the maligned defense is starting to show some life.
The oddmakers are obviously aware of all this, and they priced this game accordingly. But that hasn’t kept the money from showing in a big way on the favorite, and I believe this line has a good chance to continue to rise. I agree with the movement and can easily see this as a blowout. Missouri minus the points is the way I’m looking here.
Doc's Sports
Oklahoma St vs. Iowa St
Play: Iowa St +7
Both teams are coming off losses last week but still have a chance to earn a spot in the newly created Big 12 Championship Game this season. Iowa State has knocked off Oklahoma and TCU this season and I do not see them getting run off the field on Saturday. The Pokes are coming off an emotional loss to Oklahoma at home last Saturday knocking them out of the College Football Playoff. Just do not know how much Oklahoma State will have left in the tank to win this game by double digits. Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on grass. Oklahoma State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November.
Scott Spreitzer
Nebraska vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -2½
We have gone against Nebraska as a free or premium play six times this season and we're 5-1 ATS in those games, including last week when they had their chances against Northwestern, but failed down the stretch. That's one reason why we continue to play against the Huskers; they simply don't know how to win. Both the Huskers and Gophers are in near must win territory. Both teams are 4-5 SU and both teams have difficult remaining games making this of utmost importance. Nebraska can't run and can't stop the run, and when the offense struggles on first down, they're left with the mistake-prone Tanner Lee to attempt to bail them out with his arm. It hasn't worked. The Gophers have struggled on offense, but they're nasty stingy on defense and that's going to be the difference in this one in my opinion. I expect the Minnesota defense to force Nebraska mistakes, leading to the home win. Nebraska enters having covered just 3 of their last 11 games and we'll go against them here.
Robert Ferringo
Rutgers (+31) over Penn State
I think Rutgers is going to be able to hang around. The Scarlet Knights have shown that they are vastly improved from last year's team. They have already taken on big-time teams like Washington, Ohio State and Michigan and covered two of those three games. The Nittany Lions, who can't be too thrilled about this game, won't overwhelm them. Two weeks ago Penn State was heading to Columbus with an inside track to the College Football Playoff. Now their national title dreams are essentially shot after back-to-back losses. How can they possibly get up for this noon start against the Scarlet Knights? Penn State is just 2-10 ATS following a loss, and Rutgers has covered four straight Big Ten games. I like the underdog to lose but to keep this one respectable.
Alan Harris
Texas Tech / Baylor Over 72
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Baylor Bears at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have gone an excellent 5-2 to the over in their last seven games following a straight up loss. They also have that same 5-2 record to the over in their last seven games following a game where they allowed 40 points or more and they are a lights out 14-2 to the under in their last sixteen neutral-site games. The Bears have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone up and over the total in 19 of their last 28 games played in the month of November and they are 7-1 to the over in their last eight neutral-site contests. Throw in the fact that these two teams are a perfect 7-0 to the over in their last eight head-to-head meetings and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into a bit of a shootout in Jerry World on Saturday afternoon.
Jeff Allen
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -2½
This is a home team and favorite heavy series with the home team winning four straight an the favorite winning seven of the last eight. Kentucky has been doing it with smoke and mirrors and has more lives than a cat. UK has been outyarded by every FBS team they've played. Vandy is in a good spot and needs two wins in the three games to get bowl eligible. The Dores are 1-4-1 as a dog this year but are 4-2 SU (5-1 ATS) L6 in the series and QB Shurmur (20 TDs, 3 INTs) will be dealing against the No.105 pass defense in the country.
Freddy Wills
Navy -4½
Navy is off 3 straight losses, but two have been against top 25 teams Memphis, and Central Florida and the third against Temple who had an extra week to prepare against the triple option with a defensive minded coach. SMU just fell to Central Florida at home by only 7 points where they gave everything they had. I expect a bit of a hang over here on the road against a Navy team that is desperate for a win.
This would normally be a premium play, but it's hard to tell if Navy is distracted this year by the Showtime Series following them around.The -7 TO margin is the big reason why they are not undefeated at this point, but they still can run the ball, and SMU has really struggled to stop it. The last two years SMU has given up 16 rushing TD's and nearly 1,000 rushing yards in 2 games against Navy in 31-75 loss, and a 14-55 loss. SMU has given up 200+ yards five times this year and that is against teams that throw the ball 50% of the time or more. Here Navy should get their 400 control the game and get out with a 7+ point win. I actually don't even think SMU will be able to stop Navy and force a punt. This one could get ugly.
Dennis Macklin
Florida vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -7
How jacked do you think South Carolina HC Will Muschampsis going to be for this one. He was fired by the Gators in 2014 after four years of not putting any points on the board and his replacement resigned two weeks ago for more or less the same reason. Muschamp had a shot last year but no personnel after cleaning up Spurrier's mess and lost 20-7 in The Swamp. This year, he's on his home field with a stud QB in Bentley who can do it any way you need. Florida flatlined in the first game under interim HC Randy Shannon, gutting mugged by four touchdowns by Missouri. Shannon and staff won't be back and at this point are strictly playing out the string. The Gators are 2-6 ATS this year, 0-4 on the road while the Gamecocks are on a moneymaking 7-2-1 ATS 10 clip. No mercy here ...
Jesse Schule
Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Play: Michigan State +16½
The Buckeyes loss to Iowa last week effectively ends any realistic hope that they will return to the College Football Playoffs. They try to pick up the pieces this week, hosting rivals Michigan State. The Spartans are now 5-1 in the BIG10, and the winner of this game is likely heading to the BIG10 Championship Game. The bookmakers still have the Buckeyes favored to win this game by three scores, but I don't see any evidence to justify that line. After giving up a combined 93 points in their last two games, I think the Buckeyes defense has been exposed. In their previous seven games, they had played just two teams with a .500 or better record. One of those was a 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma, and the other was a 38-7 win over Army. In a total of four games versus teams .500 or better, they are 2-2 but have been outscored 131-117. History tells us that these two teams have been rather evenly matched over the last decade. In six games since 2011, not one of those games was decided by more than 12 points. Four of those six games were decided by three points or less, including a 17-16 Buckeyes win at East Lansing last year. Ohio State was a 20 point favorite in that game, and they lost outright as a 14.5 point home favorite the year before. There is no doubt in my mind that this is an inflated spread, and I'll take the points.
Wunderdog
Arkansas St @ South Alabama
Pick: Arkansas St -10
The Red Wolves are red hot. They come in off four straight wins both straight-up and against the number. Similar to this game, those four wins were against weaker competition and Arkansas State lines continue to be off. South Alabama has dropped four of their last six SU and ATS. THey haven't managed more than 19 points in five of those six games. How can they keep it close against an Arkansas State team that is putting up over 40 points per game? The Wolves are 10-2 ATS vs. conference opponents, dating back to last season. Meanwhile the Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in conference games over the past two and a half seasons. Under head coach Blake Anderson, Arkansas State is 21-10 ATS as a favorite and 19-8 ATS when coming off a win.
John Martin
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Play: Iowa +12
The Iowa Hawkeyes just have a way of playing to the level of their competition. They don't show up against mediocre or losing teams, but they've proven in recent years that they can play with the big boys. That couldn't have been more evident than last week's 55-24 beat down of Ohio State as 18-point underdogs. The Hawkeyes are now 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against ranked opponents, covering the spread by a combined 145 points. Now they are catching 12 points here against an overrated Wisconsin team. The Badgers have played one of the softest schedules in the country. I'm not worried about an Iowa letdown off that Ohio State win because Wisconsin is another Top 10 ranked opponent. The Hawkeyes will be putting their best foot forward, and I strongly believe this game will be decided by one score either way. The Badgers have cluster injuries right now, especially some key ones at linebacker and receiver.
Jack Jones
Duke vs. Army
Play: Duke -3
At 4-5 on the season, the Duke Blue Devils need two wins in their final three games to get bowl eligible. They host Georgia Tech next week and travel to Wake Forest in the finale, and it would be tough to sweep those two games. So they are looking at this game at Army like a must-win for bowl eligibility.
The Blue Devils opened on fire going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, but they have gone 0-5 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games since. But they got a bye last week to regroup, and that has given the Blue Devils two full weeks to prepare for the triple-option offense that Army runs.
And Duke has been great against the triple-option in recent years. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six against triple-option teams, and I think a lot of that has to do with their familiarity with it. They are also 18-4 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games. They will be ready for Army this week after beating the Black Knights 13-6 at home last year and 44-3 on the road in 2015.
Army is in a letdown spot here. The Black Knights are coming off a 21-0 shutout win at Air Force last week. It was their fifth straight victory, and they are now finally getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers. But they were fortunate to win their two previous games both at home over Eastern Michigan and Temple by a combined 4 points. I think their luck runs out this week against a well-rested and ready Duke squad.
Duke does have a very good defense this season. It gives up just 20.6 points and 340 total yards per game. The key to stopping Army is stopping the run, and the Blue Devils are equipped to do just that. They are giving up only 142 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry this season. They have held Army to 165 and 120 rushing yards in their last two meetings, respectively.
David Cutcliffe is 15-6 ATS when the line if +3 to -3 as the coach of Duke. Jeff Monken is 0-6 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) as the coach of Army. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Independent teams. Duke is 12-0 ATS in its last 12 games on fieldturf. The Black Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. Army is 9-19-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a win. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Larry Ness
Boise State vs. Colorado State
Play: Boise State -6
The 7-2 Boise State Broncos are in Colorado State to take on the 6-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Boise State is surging towards the finish line as it’s won five straight, most recently a 41-14 victory over Nevada at home last weekend.
Colorado State is trending in the opposite direction, it comes in having dropped two straight, most recently a 16-13 setback to Wyoming last Saturday.
The Broncos come in ranked 48th in scoring offense, averaging 31.1 PPG, while ranked 25th on the defensive side in conceding just 19.9. QB Montell Cozart has 684 passing yards, nine TD’s to just one INT and is also second on the team in rushing with 299 yards on the ground and another four major scores. Brett Rypien has 1,360 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s.
The Rams are ranked 47th offensively with 31.2 PPG, while ranked 62nd on the defensive side in conceding 25.7. QB Nick Stevens has 2,865 passing yards, 22 TD’s and nine INT’s. RB Dalyn Dawkins has 1,050 yards and five TD’s.
I’ll point out though that the Broncos are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four on the road, while Coloroado State is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference contets.
Both teams are bowl eligible already, but CSU has dropped out of the conference picture after back-to-back losses. The door is now open for Boise State to step through. Consider laying the points in this matchup.
Mike Anthony
Michigan vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland +17
I don't like Michigan's passing offense very much, it doesn't get any one all that concerned - which is one of the small things, the Maryland DBs do well. Maryland's special teams can do it all, and has to be contained as much as possible, with 24.4 kickoff return yards / they will shorten the field, making it mush easier for their running attack to produce points - Maryland is going to be a surprising problem for the Wolverines. Michigan isn't explosive enough to be a huge problem - and is far too methodical to be a blow out winner here. Michigan doesn't have a lot of refinement to their passing game. Maryland will try and make sure that Michigan doesn’t get the best opportunities. And truthfully, the Wolverines haven't played all that well on the road. Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Maryland keeps it close and gets us the ATS cover.