Ray Monohan
Michigan St vs. Ohio St
Play: Over 53
A crucial Big Ten battle takes place early on Saturday as the winner is in the drivers seat for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. Ohio State comes in off a tough loss to Iowa, which eliminated them from the Playoff race. However, Urban Meyer will have his team fired up for this one and really take out some frustrations in this case. Expect them to open the playbook much more and really take some shots down field, while using plenty of tempo to try and keep this Michigan State defense off balanced. On the other side of things, the Spartans offense is no pushover. They used the big play to really work Penn State and this is a defense that is very vulnerable as well. Some trends to note. Over is 5-2 in Buckeyes last 7 home games. Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 road games. Look for a back and forth game on both sides here.
Rob Vinciletti
Georgia State vs. Texas State
Play: Georgia State -6.5
The Panthers fit a road favorite system of ours that plays on road favorites of 10 or less off a road favored win and spread loss if they allowed 17 or less. these teams are 37-9 ats long term. State has covered 13 of 16 on the road and could run this one up on a terrible Texas St team that lost the last 2 meetings in this series big and has failed to cover 4 of 5 as a home dog. play on Georgia St.
Big Al
Georgia vs. Auburn
Pick: Auburn +2.5
In this match-up between two of the 10 best teams in the country, I’m going to take the points with the home underdog Tigers. Auburn comes into this game off back to back blowout wins on the road. The Tigers destroyed Arkansas, 52-20, and then went into College Station last week, and trampled Texas A&M, 42-27. The thing I like most about Auburn is its offense, as it has now scored 42 or more points in five of its six SEC Conference games this season. And one of the things I love to do is play on College Football home dogs that can score. Indeed, since 1980, home underdogs (or PK’em teams) that have scored more than 38 points in back to back victories have gone 71% ATS, including 6-1 ATS already this season! Moreover, the Tigers are locked into their best pointspread role on Saturday, as they will be looking to avenge last year’s defeat at Georgia. And the Tigers have gone 48-23 ATS when playing with revenge vs. Conference foes, if they didn’t have a losing pointspread record going into the game.
Matt Fargo
Wyoming vs. Air Force
Pick: Wyoming +3
Wyoming won the Border War over Colorado St. last week and it has caught fire with wins in five of its last six games to move to 4-1 in the MWC. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are a game behind Boise St., who they lost to three weeks ago so catching the Broncos likely will not happen as they will need to make up two games, but the schedule does set up well for a possibility. They cannot afford a letdown from their rivalry win last week but last season was a similar spot as they defeated the Rams in Week Five and then faced Air Force the next week and won by nine points as a 13.5-point underdog. They are underdogs again this year and we do not thing they should be despite the Falcons possessing a solid home field advantage over the years. Air Force is just 2-2 at home this year however which is one more loss than the last three years combined. One of those losses came last week against Army as the Falcons were shutout at home for the first time in 37 years which could fuel the fire, but we are thinking the opposite happens. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak and the Falcons are now 4-5 on the season and a loss here realistically ends their bowl chances with a game at revenge minded Boise St. on deck. While the motivation could be there, they can only do so much with a defense that is ranked No. 100 in the nation in scoring average as the 10 lost starters from last season have hurt the unit all season. The Falcons are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss while the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win.
Will Rogers
Connecticut vs. Central Florida
Pick: Central Florida -40
The set-up: The UConn Huskies are 3-6 (2-4 in AAC play) and travel to Spectrum Stadium to face the UCF Knights 8-0 (5-0 in AAC play). The Huskies need a win here after losing six of their last eight games to give themselves an outside chance at making a bowl appearance (would need to finish 3-0). However, UConn has lost seven of its last eight road games and Saturday's opponent is one of five FBS unbeatens and ranked No. 18 in the latest CFP rankings. Scott Frost took over at UCF after the Knights went 0-12 in 2015 and led them to a bowl appearance. Here in 2017, he has the school in position to garner a "New Year's Six" bowl berth.
UConn: QB Bryant Shirreffs, a senior, was having his best year at UConn. He's completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,287 yards with 14 TDs and just five interceptions. However, Shirreffs will miss Saturday's game against UCF due to a concussion. The UConn running game will hardly make up for the loss, as the Huskies average just 133.0 YPG (102nd) on 3.4 YPC. Considering UConn's defense allows 38.3 PPG (123rd) on 554.3 YPG (129th of 130 FBS schools), it's fair to say the Huskies won't be pulling an upset.
UCF: The UCF offense is ranked fifth in the nation at 541.0 YPG and seemingly set a new standard every week. In last week's victory at SMU, the Knights pulled off a feat not done since the 2013 Fiesta Bowl victory against Baylor, as UCF had a 300-yard passer (McKenzie Milton), 100-yard rusher (Adrian Killins, Jr.) and 100-yard receiver (Tre'Quan Smith). The victory against SMU also set a new season-high in total offense for UCF with 615, the second time this season the Knights piled up more than 600 yards and the fourth time they surpassed 500 yards in a game. QB Milton is completing 70.0 percent with 20 TDs and just five INTs, leading the nation's 11th-best passing offense (325.5 YPG). A deep stable of RBs average 215.6 YPG to rank 26th. Defensively, UCF is plenty good enough, allowing 20.2 PPG (28th).
The pick: UCF is undefeated but only No. 18 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Coach Scott Frost was asked Thursday whether he thought the committee had even watched UCF play. "I'm not going to say much about that," Frost said. "We just have to take care of our business. Any time it becomes people's opinions, I think it gets a little dangerous. I wouldn't complain for us. The teams I feel bad for are the Wisconsins and Miamis. As a football player, all you can do is beat the people they put in front of you. If you're undefeated, that's undefeated and that means a lot. I hate to see people's opinions have more emphasis put on them than the record on the field. But from our standpoint, we just have to take care of business and a lot of good things are headed our way." The Huskies have allowed an average of 39.2 points in six AAC games this season, while UCF owns the highest scoring offense in FBS and is averaging 43.2 points per game in five conference games. The Knights have outscored conference opponents 216-102 and have not allowed more than 24 points in an AAC game this season.
Buster Sports
TCU at Oklahoma
Play: TCU +6.5
The biggest game of the Big 12 season will be played in Norman on Saturday as TCU plays the Sooners. At the time of this writing, Oklahoma are just laying way too many points for our liking, as they are a 6 1/2 point favorite. The Horned Frogs have a little bit of double revenge against Oklahoma as they lost to them by six points last year and in their last trip to Norman two years ago they lost by one. This game has Oklahoma’s number one offense going up against the number sixth defense in the nation of the Horned Frogs. We will always take defense over offense any time, even on the road. What could be the key to this game is TCU’s 38th ranked offense going against a really terrible 87th ranked defense of the Sooners. We believe it will be time for TCU to turn the tables on this Oklahoma club who keeps tempting fate especially in fourth quarter wins against Kansas State and Texas. We would not be surprised if TCU won OR and will b
Doug Upstone
Fresno State vs. Hawaii
Play: Fresno State -10
With Hawaii getting beaten up and Fresno State playing in lower scoring games, Play Against home underdogs (HAWAII) being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, against opponent after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. Going back to 1992, teams like the Rainbow Warriors are abysmal 2-25 ATS.
Marc Lawrence
Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Play: Michigan State +17
Edges - Spartans: 5-1 ATS as Big Ten dogs of more than 14 points; and 10-2 ATS with conference revenge… Buckeyes: 1-4 ATS in the first of consecutive conference home games. With MSU 3-3 SU in this series the last six years, with the three losses by a total of 4 points, and currently 3-1 SUATS in avenging roles this season, we recommend a 1* play on Michigan State.
MMA OddsBreaker
Nina Ansaroff vs Angela Hill
Pick: Nina Ansaroff +165
I think this is a very close matchup in the UFC’s women’s strawweight division and much closer than the current betting odds suggest. I see this as a coin-flip matchup, so at the current odds, I see value in Ansaroff at her underdog price of +165. She holds the size and grappling advantage in this bout, and she will be the aggressor on the feet. Hill will likely find success with her counter attacks, but over the course of three rounds, I think Ansaroff stands a good chance of doing enough to edge out a decision. She is capable on the feet and I could see her forward pressure ultimately making the difference on the judges’ scorecards.
Power Sports
Georgia vs. Auburn
Pick: Auburn +2.5
Four teams are still unbeaten heading into the weekend and leading the list is #1 Georgia. However, does anyone really believe the Dawgs are the best team in the country? It's already been noted that they'd be a significant dog in next month's SEC Title Game (assuming the play Alabama). They did win at Notre Dame early in the year, but Saturday afternoon's trip to Jordan-Hare just might be the toughest test to date. Points should be at a premium in a battle of Top 10 teams w/ top flight defenses. I think this is the game where Jake Fromm's inexperience could finally come back to bite the Dawgs. UGA was a dog at Notre Dame in Week 2, but here they're favored and #1, making the bullseye far bigger.
Now Georgia has had Auburn's number the past decade. They've won 9 of the past 11 meetings including consecutiive upsets. Last year, they won in Athens w/o scoring an offensive TD. A 'pick-six' was the deciding factor in the 13-7 victory, which came as 10-pt pups. So we've seen quite the move in the marketplace one year later. The home side has won 6 of 8 in the SEC rivalry though, which I view as significant. It does stink for Auburn that they will be w/o RB Kamryn Pettaway for a second straight year vs. Georgia, but this year Kerryon Johnson (868 yards) is more equipped to carry the load.
Both offenses are averaging just over 36 PPG. Georgia's defense is allowing just 11.9 PPG while Auburn's gives up 16.9. Those numbers would be more even if you take out some garbage time scores allowed by the Tigers against both Ole Miss and Texas A&M. The Auburn offense has scored 94 points the L2 weeks and I give them the edge at QB w/ Jared Stidham over Fromm. You don't see the Tigers getting points often at Jordan-Hare and unbeaten teams are often a great fade late in the year. In fact, in the CFP era (four seasons including last week), unbeatens are cashing at only a 33% rate in November/December games. I'm taking the points here as I believe Auburn will deal Georgia its first loss.
Will Rogers
Connecticut vs. Central Florida
Pick: Central Florida -40
The set-up: The UConn Huskies are 3-6 (2-4 in AAC play) and travel to Spectrum Stadium to face the UCF Knights 8-0 (5-0 in AAC play). The Huskies need a win here after losing six of their last eight games to give themselves an outside chance at making a bowl appearance (would need to finish 3-0). However, UConn has lost seven of its last eight road games and Saturday's opponent is one of five FBS unbeatens and ranked No. 18 in the latest CFP rankings. Scott Frost took over at UCF after the Knights went 0-12 in 2015 and led them to a bowl appearance. Here in 2017, he has the school in position to garner a "New Year's Six" bowl berth.
UConn: QB Bryant Shirreffs, a senior, was having his best year at UConn. He's completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,287 yards with 14 TDs and just five interceptions. However, Shirreffs will miss Saturday's game against UCF due to a concussion. The UConn running game will hardly make up for the loss, as the Huskies average just 133.0 YPG (102nd) on 3.4 YPC. Considering UConn's defense allows 38.3 PPG (123rd) on 554.3 YPG (129th of 130 FBS schools), it's fair to say the Huskies won't be pulling an upset.
UCF: The UCF offense is ranked fifth in the nation at 541.0 YPG and seemingly set a new standard every week. In last week's victory at SMU, the Knights pulled off a feat not done since the 2013 Fiesta Bowl victory against Baylor, as UCF had a 300-yard passer (McKenzie Milton), 100-yard rusher (Adrian Killins, Jr.) and 100-yard receiver (Tre'Quan Smith). The victory against SMU also set a new season-high in total offense for UCF with 615, the second time this season the Knights piled up more than 600 yards and the fourth time they surpassed 500 yards in a game. QB Milton is completing 70.0 percent with 20 TDs and just five INTs, leading the nation's 11th-best passing offense (325.5 YPG). A deep stable of RBs average 215.6 YPG to rank 26th. Defensively, UCF is plenty good enough, allowing 20.2 PPG (28th).
The pick: UCF is undefeated but only No. 18 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Coach Scott Frost was asked Thursday whether he thought the committee had even watched UCF play. "I'm not going to say much about that," Frost said. "We just have to take care of our business. Any time it becomes people's opinions, I think it gets a little dangerous. I wouldn't complain for us. The teams I feel bad for are the Wisconsins and Miamis. As a football player, all you can do is beat the people they put in front of you. If you're undefeated, that's undefeated and that means a lot. I hate to see people's opinions have more emphasis put on them than the record on the field. But from our standpoint, we just have to take care of business and a lot of good things are headed our way." The Huskies have allowed an average of 39.2 points in six AAC games this season, while UCF owns the highest scoring offense in FBS and is averaging 43.2 points per game in five conference games. The Knights have outscored conference opponents 216-102 and have not allowed more than 24 points in an AAC game this season.
Executive Sports
Alabama at Mississippi St
Play: Mississippi St +14.5
Play On Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MISS ST) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record. (32-5, 87% over the last 5 seasons.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-2)
Brandon Lee
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Play: Over 69½
These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this total, as this should be another one of those Big 12 games where not a whole lot of defense figures to be played. Texas Tech comes in giving up 34.1 ppg and have allowed 31 or more in each of their last 4. Baylor is even worse, allowing 36.1 ppg. The Bears defense did just hold Kansas to 9 points, but that's a horrific Jayhawks offense that has scored 29 points in their last 4 games combined.
Not only do we have two teams that don't play defense, but two very capable offenses. Texas Tech has been the better of the two and wouldn't be shocked if they did the heavy lifting here and put up close to 50. At the same time, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Red Raiders defense allowed 40+ to the Bears. All we need is for each team to score 35 and we are in the clear. I wouldn't be shocked if we had a winning ticket here by the end of the 3rd quarter.
If you need a little more convincing, each of the last 7 meetings between these two teams have seen at least 89 combined points.
Cappers Club
Tennessee vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -12½
The Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers face off on Saturday, and in this game the value lies with the Tigers.
The Volunteers have seemed to quit on Butch Jones and his staff. They did win their last game against Southern Miss, a win they had to have, but before that they game they had lost four in a row, and they were ugly.
For the Volunteers their struggle has been on the offensive side of the ball. Coming into this game they are only averaging 20.8 points per game.
That isn't a good thing when you are facing a Tigers team that has no issue scoring points. They are currently averaging 36.6 points per game, and that number has risen the last few games.
In each of the last three games they have scored at least 45 points.
The Volunteers aren't going to be able to keep up.
Some trends to note. Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Volunteers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Joseph D'Amico
Arizona State vs. UCLA
Play: Arizona St +3½
Arizona State comes off an incredible, rushing performance, tallying 381 yards on the ground in LW's, 41-30 victory over Colorado. They face the 129th ranked rush defense in the nation in UCLA here. The trio of Richard, Ballage, and Wilkins (1135 YR and 16 TD's combined) will shred the Bruins "D" here, which will allow QB, Manny Wilkins (2298 YP, 64.3% CR, 11/3) to connect with his 3 favorite targets, Harry, Williams, and Harvey. Josh Rosen is likely to start here (concussion). The QB has had problems with ASU as they gave him his first loss and have beat in both meetings, and covered as well. The Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS their L6 vs. Conference opponents while the Bruins are 1-7 ATS their L8 vs. Conference foes.