Jimmy Boyd
TCU vs. Oklahoma
Play: TCU +7
I think we are getting big time value here with the Horned Frogs catching a touchdown against the Sooners. Oklahoma is getting all kinds of love for that 62-52 win at Oklahoma State, but that's not going to be an easy game to bounce back from.
While everyone was paying attention to that contest in the Big 12, TCU put on an impressive performance in a 24-7 home win over Texas. The Horned Frogs were a 7-point favorite in that game and it marked the first time that a Tom Herman coached team, going back to his days as a OC at Ohio State, failed to cover as an underdog.
Most just look at all the offensive numbers Oklahoma put up against the Cowboys, but it's not going to be that easy for the Sooners against a very good TCU defense. Arguably the best defense they have faced and easily the best defense in the Big 12. If the offense struggles, this could get ugly for Oklahoma, as I haven't seen anything to make me think their defense can keep TCU in check.
I just feel like this should be a lot closer to a 3-point spread and not a touchdown, as there's a really good chance the Horned Frogs win this game outright.
Red Dog Sports
Chesterfield vs. Swindon Town
Play: Swindon Town -120
The home team is 5-0 in their last 5 matches and sit #5 of the 24 teams in the league. Chesterfield is last of the 24 teams at 2 wins, 11 losses and 3 draws (-16 goal difference). Hopefully, we see an easy win by Swindon Town in the range of 2-0.
ASA
Kansas vs. Texas
Play: Texas -33½
ASA Free Pick Saturday: Texas (-) over Kansas – Texas can name the score in this one. The Horns have lost 3 of their last 4 but those setbacks came at the hands of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU. The two games vs Oklahoma teams were both down to the wire with margins of 5 & 3 points. Those were their most recent home games and with two losses they’ll definitely want to win at home here. Their lone win during that 4 games stretch was @ Baylor and it was a 29 point Longhorn win. That one was on the road vs a team that is better, much better, than Kansas. In fact Baylor won @ Kansas last week 38-9. Texas also has the motivation here as they lost @ Kansas in OT as 23 point favorites last year and they need to more wins to get to 6 for the season which would send them to a bowl game. Kansas is terrible and that’s quite obvious. They are 0-8 against FBS teams and have lost 4 of their 6 Big 12 games by at least 29 points. They have played just 2 road games in Big 12 play and lost those by a combined score of 88-0 vs Iowa State and TCU. There is a chance they are held scoreless again on the road vs a very solid Texas defense. We see a very flat performance on the way for Kansas here. They obviously have nothing to play for. Their one prime effort in Big 12 play was at home vs arch rival KSU a few weeks ago (30-20 Kansas loss). After that they lost at home by 29 points to a previously winless (0-8 ) Baylor team. The Jayhawks do have one more home game to look forward to after this one but will show little to no interest in this game @ Texas. Even if they are focused, they still get destroyed.
Chip Chirimbes
Washington St vs. Utah
Play: Utah +1½
Without a doubt Mike Leach has put together a tremendous offense led by PAC-12 all-time passing leader Luke Falk and what goes unnoticed is their 10th ranked defense that allows just 297 yards per game (that's pretty good). Utah broke a four-game losing streak by beating a UCLA team without Josh Rosen 48-17 as Tyler Huntley posted 327 total yards with four touchdown passes. The Cougars are 7-0 at home but just 1-2 on the road with blowout losses to Cal (37-3) and Arizona 58-37. On the road a no-go!
Dave Price
Boise State vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State +6½
The Colorado State Buffaloes came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Mountain West. But now at 4-2 in MWC play, they cannot afford another loss if they want to get to the title game. Those two losses came to Air Force and Wyoming. They get a chance to redeem themselves against the Boise State Broncos, the team leading the Mountain Division. Boise State is getting a lot of love right now after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. And now the price is right to go against them. This line is basically saying that Colorado State would be a 10-point dog on a neutral field against Boise, and I just don't think there's that much difference between these teams. The Rams have a high-powered offense that is putting up 31.2 PPG, 484 YPG and 6.7 YPP, including 42.0 PPG, 543 YPG and 7.6 YPP at home. The Broncos are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rams are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
Zack Cimini
Arizona St vs. UCLA
Pick: UCLA -3
The return of Josh Rosen against ASU could end up being the calling card for Rosen’s pro career. While at UCLA Rosen has taken a beating against the Sun Devils. In last season’s matchup he was knocked out in the first quarter before returning in the second half and was also battered two seasons ago. As dismal as the Bruins season has been this is a pride spot to throttle ASU’s bowl chances.
Brandon Shively
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
Pick: Over 70
This one should turn into a shootout in the Big 12 on Saturday.
Dealing with Texas Tech and betting is always an interesting time. The Red Raiders have one of the best offenses in the conference, but also one of the worst defenses as well.
The average score for them has been 38.2-34.1. That certainly bodes well for them in this case, especially given Baylor’s defense, which gives up 36.1 points on the average.
Don’t count Baylor out of this contest either. Over the past few weeks they have shown they can score in bunches. The Bears offense is playing with some serious confidence right now and will take plenty of deep shots against the Red Raiders weak secondary.
The Over has hit 7 straight times in this series.
Bruce Marshall
Mid Tennessee State at Charlotte
Pick: Mid Tennessee State
Sticking my neck out a bit with Blue Raiders, who have to hustle to get bowl-eligible. But Brent Stockstill has finally returned, and things back to normal last week vs. UTEP. With Stockstill, MTSU good enough to stretch a margin vs. poor C-USA teams. Offense-poor Charlotte juggling QBs and looking ready to fade late as it did a year ago (when it also covered some numbers around midseason). Amazing that 49ers could still get cover vs. ODU despite shutout.
Ian Cameron
SMU +3.5
After starting the season 5-0, Navy's schedule started to tighten and they find itself on a rare three-game losing streak. The SOS difficulty continues on Saturday with a very capable SMU coming to town. The Mustangs rank among the nation's leaders in pass plays beyond 20 yards (49). That spells problems for a Navy secondary that has routinely been exposed against potent passing attacks. The Midshipmen surrendered 34, 31, 30 and 45 points in their last four games; showing an inability to get stops or get off the field on third down.
On the flip side, Navy’s triple option attack has not been as reliable as it’s been in past seasons. Offensively, the Middies are down about a half yard per play compared to 2016. And of over their last three games, they’ve averaged a very pedestrian 5.0 ypp. SMU’s defense is far from elite, but if you eliminate games vs. upper-tier TCU and UCF, the Mustangs are allowing a respectable 5.8 ypp.
The big storyline in this matchup is the recent history. Navy has embarrassed SMU in back-to-back meetings, 55-14 and 75-31. But the gap between these two teams has closed considerably with SMU one of the most improved teams in the country. Navy will get its yards but I think the Mustangs are poised for a far more competitive showing with a good shot at the outright victory.
Rob Veno
Notre Dame at Miami
Play: Over 57.5
High stakes contest at Miami this week which has been thoroughly dissected by national media but may boil down to the simplest of factors. Hurricane detractors continue to point toward the lack of scoreboard dominance exhibited by Miami but last week’s dominant 28-10 win over Virginia Tech has opened some eyes. For the ‘Canes, the formula has not quite been classic Mark Richt style and they may be a bit ahead of schedule but they do have a head of steam built up heading into this game. The team confidence and fan base enthusiasm which have not really been clearly seen since his arrival, are now in full force at precisely the right time. Those elements combined with steady week to week play have Miami priced at a very competitive +3 home underdog versus this Notre Dame team which has been dominant this season with all eight of their victories coming by 11 or more points.
Injuries to Notre Dame studs, QB Brandon Wimbush (hand) and RB Josh Adams (head) were a slight source of concern earlier this week but now it seems as if all systems are go for the Fighting Irish offense. Last week once again, they destroyed a solid defense when they lit Wake Forest up for 710 total yards. They led by 25 points with under 10 minutes to go in the contest and let off the accelerator which led to a back door cover by Wake. However, the Demon Deacons did put up a whopping 587 total yards in the contest which was a season high against Notre Dame and in the process may have opened the door to a potential weakness. In the only two games this season where ND was lit up defensively, proficient dual threat QB’s led the way. Brian Lewerke of Michigan State and John Woolford of Wake Forest both have the running capabilities and passing accuracy that each demanded Notre Dame’s attention. The results were seen mainly through the air as Lewerke passed for 340 yards and Woolford threw for 331. Question is, can Malik Rozier pick apart Notre Dame the same way? Statistically he’s not quite as accurate as Woolford and Lewerke but he’s in the neighborhood. Must also note that Rozier’s primary game-breaking WR threat Ahmmon Richards missed a significant chunk of time early this season due to injury but settled in during the month of October.
Have to believe Miami is ready for this moment. They are the prototypical college football example of progressing week by week and they are now hitting their stride at the perfect time. That being said, Notre Dame has been ultra-impressive this season and they show zero signs of slowing down. From a betting angle there seems to be some room to play the over. Notre Dame’s offensive line is leaps and bounds better than any the Hurricanes have faced this season and the diversity of their offense seems ticketed for 31+ points. On the other hand, Miami has the weaponry and balance to give the Notre Dame defense problems all night the same way Michigan State and Wake Forest did. With the key numbers of 58, 59 and 61 all working here, over figures to be a ticket casher.
DAVE COKIN
ST. PETER’S VS LA SALLE
PLAY: LA SALLE -8.5
St. Peter’s is off a tremendous campaign, as the Peacocks exceeded most expectations and ended up winning one of the minor post-season tournaments. I can’t see anything along those lines this time around.
La Salle is a bit of a mystery team. The Explorers appear to have a pretty good offense, but whether they will be able to stop anyone from scoring is far less certain.
There has already been a bit of tumult at La Salle, as Demetrius Henry left the program in early September. Henry cited problems with head coach John Giannini. Henry has had an active presence on social media, where he has been quite vocal about social injustice issues. Giannini evidently felt this was a distraction for the team and told Henry he was being a negative influence on the team.
I have no idea who’s right and/or wrong on this one. Henry was already on his second school as he’d departed South Carolina after his sophomore season. That also followed a problem with the coach, as Frank Martin had handed Henry a lengthy suspension in his second season as a member of the basketball team.
Your guess is as good as mine as to the impact on the current Explorers. La Salle had a good second half in an exhibition loss to a talented Seton Hall squad. The Explorers played pretty well in a second exhibition, getting past Shippensburg, a solid Division II entry.
As for this game, St. Pete’s will play tough defense, as that’s what the Peacocks always do. But even in a hugely successful 2016-17 campaign, St. Pete still struggled at times to generate much in the way of offense. La Salle should be just the opposite, as they’re likely to be a prolific scoring team, but they basically never defend well.
My lean is with the favorite. I can’t say I know it because I don’t, but I’m getting the impression the Explorers might indeed have better chemistry minus Demetrius Henry. There’s not much question the hosts have the edge in athleticism. If St. Peter’s tenacious defensive style takes a while to hit on all cylinders, the home team might gets its share of easy baskets. I definitely like the fact the Explorers got to play a couple of exhibitions against good opposition. I’d look at the favorite first in this one, La Salle minus the points.
John Martin
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Play: Iowa +12
The Iowa Hawkeyes just have a way of playing to the level of their competition. They don't show up against mediocre or losing teams, but they've proven in recent years that they can play with the big boys. That couldn't have been more evident than last week's 55-24 beat down of Ohio State as 18-point underdogs. The Hawkeyes are now 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against ranked opponents, covering the spread by a combined 145 points. Now they are catching 12 points here against an overrated Wisconsin team. The Badgers have played one of the softest schedules in the country. I'm not worried about an Iowa letdown off that Ohio State win because Wisconsin is another Top 10 ranked opponent. The Hawkeyes will be putting their best foot forward, and I strongly believe this game will be decided by one score either way. The Badgers have cluster injuries right now, especially some key ones at linebacker and receiver.
Cappers Club
Tennessee vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -12½
The Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers face off on Saturday, and in this game the value lies with the Tigers.
The Volunteers have seemed to quit on Butch Jones and his staff. They did win their last game against Southern Miss, a win they had to have, but before that they game they had lost four in a row, and they were ugly.
For the Volunteers their struggle has been on the offensive side of the ball. Coming into this game they are only averaging 20.8 points per game.
That isn't a good thing when you are facing a Tigers team that has no issue scoring points. They are currently averaging 36.6 points per game, and that number has risen the last few games.
In each of the last three games they have scored at least 45 points.
The Volunteers aren't going to be able to keep up.
Some trends to note. Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Volunteers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
ASA
Kansas vs. Texas
Play: Texas -33½
Texas can name the score in this one. The Horns have lost 3 of their last 4 but those setbacks came at the hands of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU. The two games vs Oklahoma teams were both down to the wire with margins of 5 & 3 points. Those were their most recent home games and with two losses they’ll definitely want to win at home here. Their lone win during that 4 games stretch was @ Baylor and it was a 29 point Longhorn win. That one was on the road vs a team that is better, much better, than Kansas. In fact Baylor won @ Kansas last week 38-9. Texas also has the motivation here as they lost @ Kansas in OT as 23 point favorites last year and they need to more wins to get to 6 for the season which would send them to a bowl game. Kansas is terrible and that’s quite obvious. They are 0-8 against FBS teams and have lost 4 of their 6 Big 12 games by at least 29 points. They have played just 2 road games in Big 12 play and lost those by a combined score of 88-0 vs Iowa State and TCU. There is a chance they are held scoreless again on the road vs a very solid Texas defense. We see a very flat performance on the way for Kansas here. They obviously have nothing to play for. Their one prime effort in Big 12 play was at home vs arch rival KSU a few weeks ago (30-20 Kansas loss). After that they lost at home by 29 points to a previously winless (0-8) Baylor team. The Jayhawks do have one more home game to look forward to after this one but will show little to no interest in this game @ Texas. Even if they are focused, they still get destroyed.
Vic Duke
Florida vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -5½
Good spot for S. Carolina to get back on track against the free-falling Gators. Fla's injury ravaged and going nowhere now that Mcelwain was let go. Interim coach Shannon, who failed to bring Miami U back to prominence from 2007-2010, didn't have success in his audition to take over the full time Florida job with a blowout loss last week. I would project a better effort this week but S. Carolina is still in line for a bowl and they want revenge from last year's beating. Good effort and cover last week at #1 Georgia. We'll look for Bentley and company to get it together and cover here.