Kyle Hunter
Kansas vs. Texas
Play: Under 56
The Texas Longhorns defense has been playing really well of late. They allowed 24 against TCU of late, but the Horned Frogs yards per play and total yardage numbers weren't all that impressive. Texas only gave up 13 points to a great Oklahoma State offense. They allowed only 7 points against a Baylor offense that has been pretty good.
Kansas has scored 0 points in two of their last four games. The Jayhawks have scored 9 points or less in 3 of their last 4. This Jayhawks offense has completely fallen apart.
Texas could run up the score here, though it wouldn't prove a whole lot. Texas needs to win another game after this to become bowl eligible. They should look to run clock later in the game.
With one offense inept, this is a fairly high total. I'll take the under here.
Joe DelPopolo
Southern Miss -10
Based on my Stat-Key Power Rating System and predictive math-model Southern Miss looks like to be worth a small play here. Rice is absolutely awful and Southern Miss is an improved team. Tough to lay double-digits on the road with an average Southern Miss team but they should get the money in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Rutgers vs. Penn St
Play: Over 53½
Penn State is angry off of back to back losses and Rutgers won't be able to stop them here. Even though the Scarlet Knights have won 3 of their last 4 games it came against much weaker competition than what they're facing here. The most comparable team that Rutgers has faced that is similar to Penn State is Ohio State and the Scarlet Knights gave up 56 points against the Buckeyes. As angry as the Nittany Lions are, the fact is that their defense has allowed an average of 501.5 yards per game the past two weeks. Even though Rutgers is not a very good football team, they should be able to at least score a couple of times here and that should help to send this one way over the total because I don't foresee PSU ever taking their foot off the gas. They are angry and this is their homecoming game and they're ready to put on a show. The over is 7-1 in Penn State's November games. The over is 3-1 when Rutgers is a road dog of 21.5 points or more. Look for the Nittany Lions to win this one huge (but I am not fond of laying more than 30 points!) and it should fly over the total in Happy Valley EARLY today.
Larry Ness
Boise State vs. Colorado State
Play: Boise State -6
The 7-2 Boise State Broncos are in Colorado State to take on the 6-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
Boise State is surging towards the finish line as it’s won five straight, most recently a 41-14 victory over Nevada at home last weekend.
Colorado State is trending in the opposite direction, it comes in having dropped two straight, most recently a 16-13 setback to Wyoming last Saturday.
The Broncos come in ranked 48th in scoring offense, averaging 31.1 PPG, while ranked 25th on the defensive side in conceding just 19.9. QB Montell Cozart has 684 passing yards, nine TD’s to just one INT and is also second on the team in rushing with 299 yards on the ground and another four major scores. Brett Rypien has 1,360 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s.
The Rams are ranked 47th offensively with 31.2 PPG, while ranked 62nd on the defensive side in conceding 25.7. QB Nick Stevens has 2,865 passing yards, 22 TD’s and nine INT’s. RB Dalyn Dawkins has 1,050 yards and five TD’s.
I’ll point out though that the Broncos are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four on the road, while Coloroado State is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference contets.
Both teams are bowl eligible already, but CSU has dropped out of the conference picture after back-to-back losses. The door is now open for Boise State to step through. Consider laying the points in this matchup.
Jim Feist
Washington St at Utah
Pick: Utah
Washington (8-2) travels to Utah (5-4) to face the Utes. Both teams have winning spread records, though Utah is slightly better at 6-2-1 ATS. Utah coming off a convincing win over UCLA last week, 48-17. The win snapped a four game losing streak for the Utes. WSU is coming off a home win over Stanford, 24-21. The Cougars have lost two of their last three away games. In fact, the Cougars are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. I'm not convinced this WSU team can win consistently on the road. Meanwhile, Utah plays with lots of confidence before the home fans.
Harry Bondi
TULANE (-5.5) over East Carolina
Yes, it’s dicey laying points on the road with a team that’s lost four in a row, but we’re confident this is a situation where the Green Wave can win and win by margin. First off, the team still has a chance to play in a bowl game, so the motivation is there. Secondly, the problem over the last month has been a rush defense that’s been getting run over by physical teams, but that’s exactly what East Carolina does NOT bring to the table. In fact, the Pirates are averaging just 3.1 yards per rush and an even worse 2.4 yards per carry at home this year, which has been the main reason for their 2-7 ATS record. Tulane has been very good in recent years handling teams it is expected to beat, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and this week they are starving for a victory. Lay the road favorite!
Joe Everett
Georgia / Auburn Under 47
These are two of the best teams in the SEC as well as the nation but the reason for that is two excellent defenses that both rank in the Top-25 in rushing defense, which steps right in front of the strengths of these two offenses. The Bulldogs do have a tremendous senior duo at runningback with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, both draftable NFL prospects. Georgia’s quarterback situation might be better off with Jake Fromm but against an Auburn pass defense that ranks in the Top-20 in yardage and ninth in points against, the Bulldogs might be stuck in neutral here. With future NFL studs like junior linebacker Jeff Holland (7.5 sacks) and gigantic sophomore Derrick Brown (6’5”,3126 lbs) who has 7.5 TFLs, this Tiger defense has some real teeth in the pass rush.
Auburn will be without stud runningback Kamryn Pettway (shoulder) who is their pounder and pile mover but they have their most explosive runner going in junior Kerryon Johnson who has 15 rushing touchdowns and is also a threat as a receiver with another score through the air. Yet another problem with the matchup is the strength of this Georgia team; a defense that returned 10 starters and currently ranks 7th in passing defense, 5th in rushing defense and 3rd in scoring defense at 11.7 points per game. Gus Malzahn’s read option scheme needs a running game to have success and put his quarterback ahead of the chains but against this pass rush and front seven, it will be tough sledding for Jared Stidham here against a senior laden defense with guys like Lo Carter, Aaron Davis and Davin Bellamy setting the tone.
The line has dropped a point from 48 to 47 here, so we’ve lost a point on this total but with a true rock meeting the hard place type of game on our hands, the movement makes sense. The forecast reads pretty solid in the 50’s, mostly sunny with 5-9 mph winds in Auburn for game time but the history of this matchup is definitely in our favor here, as the last six games in this series have gone 5-1 to the UNDER with five Bulldog wins from 2011-2016. This game should be a real slugfest featuring two heavy weights that specialize in defensive football and strong ground games, which makes the UNDER a good look. Georgia takes this SEC street fight in a tight 17-13 road win here.
USC / Colorado Over 64½
This is a high number but these two offenses have been firing off with the Trojans piling up 97 in their last two games, while the Buffs have scored 74 in their last two contests. Sam Darnold is stuck in the read option and even though his stats are terrible this season, he’s still a rare prospect and player. Despite all the mistakes and interceptions, this kid is going to move the ball up and down the field in every game he plays because he’s talented and the offensive line around him is getting healthier. The bottom line for the Trojan offense is that the three key players; quarterback Darnold, junior runningback Ronald Jones and junior receiver Deontay Burnett are all healthy and all playing well. Jones has 13 rushing scores, while Burnett has racked up 8 touchdowns through the air despite Sam Darnold apparently “struggling” [insert sarcasm here]. The Buffs lost former defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt (Oregon) and that’s why they’ve dropped to 69th in scoring defense at 26.6 points per game. The main problem for Colorado is a rushing defense that ranks 117th against a future NFL back in Ronald Jones.
On the other side of the ball the Buffs have a real difference maker at runningback themselves in Phillip Lindsay, who is fourth in the nation with 1,334 rushing yards. Up against a Trojan rushing defense that ranks 93rd with 1,717 yards given up on the year, Colorado should have a lot of success sustaining drives with their pace at 78.6 plays per game which ranks 18th in the nation. They have a dual threat quarterback in sophomore Steven Montez, they have a trio of senior receivers in Mike Bobo, Devin Ross and Shay Fields to go along with a super sized offensive line. Mike Macintyre’s team are always very well coached and there’s no doubt the Buffaloes offense will be ready in their last home game of the year.
These two teams actually have a small sample size of low scoring with the last two matchups finishing much lower than the total at 2-0 to the UNDER but that was certainly a different Colorado defense the last two seasons. USC also has two key defenders on the injury report in junior cornerback Iman Marshall (a highly regarded NFL prospect) and senior pass rusher Uchenna Nwosu who has five sacks on the year, as both are listed as questionable for this game. The forecast in Boulder is sunny and 50’s, which is ideal fat guy weather (speaking from experience), so you can expect these offensive linemen to be at their best. Unfortunately, we’re tardy to the party in regards to the line movement with the opener as low as 60½ and it’s now up to 64½ as of this writing but there’s still value with an expected final in the range of a 41-38 or 38-34 USC win in a classic Pac-12 showdown here.
Washington St / Utah Over 52
Mike Leach is a living legend in press conferences and his teams are consistent if anything, especially on offense where Leach has rewritten the book on how to coach quarterbacks and receivers. Former walkon senior quarterback Luke Falk ranks 1st in completions at 280, he is 7th in yardage at 2,913 and 7th in passing touchdown at 26 despite being benched for periods in two games this season. As a team the Cougars have more passing yards than any team and they average 85.1 plays per game on offense which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Utes are defensive specialists however and they excel in pass coverage, ranking 30th in yardage through the air but against the spread attack of the Cougars, their thin secondary may have met their match. Utah will need senior end Kylie Fitts (3 sacks) and senior linebacker Sunia Tauteoli (10 TFLs) to have big games rushing the passer if they want to stay in this game because Washington State will score points.
Utah finally has a legit mobile quarterback that poses a real threat through the air in Tyler Huntley, who has three rushing scores to go along with his 12 passing touchdowns in just six and half games. The sophomore is coming of a four passing touchdown game against UCLA and poses a problem against a Washington State defense that had issues against mobile quarterbacks in games against Arizona and California. The Cougars have a much improved defensive unit this year with some unique players like junior lineman Hercules Mata’afa, who is a force of nature type with outstanding strength and a real shot to play at the next level but Washington State has given up a combined 105 points in their last three road games and they’re coming off a big win over rival Stanford. The Utes also have a special player in senior receiver Darren Carrington who leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns through the air. The graduate transfer from Oregon has shown chemistry with both Utah quarterbacks and regardless of changing teams and offenses, Carrington has excelled as a leader for this offense and has put himself firmly on the NFL Draft map in his final season of eligibility.
This line hasn’t budged, resting at the 52 it opened which shows respect for the number but it looks low in a divisional series that has seen three of the last four meetings go up and OVER the total. With conditions looking extremely favorable in Salt Lake, there shouldn’t be any issues spinning the ball and timing up routes. Both teams have relatively short injury reports for this game and both have spread offenses with difference makers at quarterback. These teams are both coming off conference wins and both teams want this game for bowl contention, so expect both offenses to pull out all the stops in a 38-27 Utah win at home here.
Dr Bob
Michigan @ Maryland
Michigan’s defense is much better defending the pass than defending the run and Maryland prefers to run the ball. That relatively positive matchup, combined with Michigan’s bad quarterback play, should keep this game fairly competitive and my model liked the Terps plus the points.
Oklahoma St. @ Iowa St.
Iowa State is a solid team, rating at 0.7 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage, but the Cyclones aren’t nearly as good as Oklahoma State (+2.5 yppl) and the Cyclones are now an overrated team that’s been lucky to have not lost a single fumble all season. My model likes Oklahoma State minutes the points.
Notre Dame @ Miami Fla
This game is likely to come down to two things – how much Miami’s good run defense can contain an elite Notre Dame rushing attack and how many big pass plays the Hurricanes’ Malik Rosier can connect on. Miami has averaged 7.2 yards per pass play or more in all but one game (just 5.2 yppp against FSU) and that consistency is rare from pass attacks that average a high yards per catch (14.7 ypc) with a low completion percentage (56.2% for Rosier). Notre Dame’s is good at denying completions (56.1% allowed) and big plays (only 11.0 ypc) so connecting on down field throws will certainly a challenge for Miami this week – although my model projects a decent 6.6 yppp.
Notre Dame’s incredible rushing attack (336 rush yards at 7.6 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.6 yprp) is likely to thrive against a Miami defense that is much better defending the pass (2.1 yppp better than average) than they are defending the run (0.2 yprp better than average). In fact, Miami’s run defense is a bit worse than the average team that that the Irish have faced and Notre Dame is tough to stop when they are not forced to throw the ball. However, if Miami stacks the line to stop the run and dares the inconsistent Brandon Wimbush (51.5% completions) to beat them with his arm then the Irish can be beaten.
My math model picks Notre Dame to win but I can see a scenario where Miami pulls off the upset.
Washington St. @ Utah
Utah has the tight covering and good tackling secondary (55.9% completions and only 10.9 yards per catch allowed) that matches up well with Washington State’s short passing attack and my math model projects just 5.1 yards per pass play for the overrated Cougars’ offense. What has made Washington State good this season is their defense and I don’t expect a lot of points from Utah either. My math model favors the Utes by one and Washington State applies to a very negative 106-214-5 ATS situation.
Iowa @ Wisconsin
My math model favors Wisconsin by just 11½ points but Iowa applies to a very negative 12-65 ATS road underdog letdown situation that is based on the Hawkeyes’ incredible 55-24 blowout win as a 20½ point underdog against Ohio State last week.
Georgia @ Auburn
My math model favors Georgia by 2½ points but Auburn applies to a 66-17-1 ATS situation while Georgia applies to a negative 35-78-3 ATS late-season unbeaten road team angle. This is just not a good spot for the Bulldogs and Auburn is a really, really good team that can slow down the Georgia rushing attack. The Tigers rate at 1.3 yard per rushing play better than average defensively while Georgia has a +1.2 yprp rating on offense. Georgia freshman Jake Fromm will have to throw the ball more than he’s had to all season and Auburn is among the best in the nation in my pass defense ratings as well (2.0 yppp better than average). I’ll go with the defensively strong home underdog with the more experienced quarterback.
Florida St. @ Clemson
Florida State still has plenty of talent and a very strong defense and I believe the Seminoles will give a very good effort against their ACC rival. My math model only favors Clemson by 14 ½ points and big underdogs with a good defense in games with a low total are historically good bets. I like FSU.
The Real Animal
Arkansas +18
LSU has been favored twice by a big # this year against Syracuse and Troy. They lost to Troy outright laying 20 1/2 and barely beat the Orange 35-26 when giving 21 1/2. Arkansas can score on virtually anybody except Alabama. The Hogs are averaging 30-points per game and are very close to averaging 200 yards a game on the ground and in the air. Plus can you count on LSU's skilled people to put up the kind of offensive output to cover this huge #? I don't think so. LSU is an incredible 1-10 ATS after a straight-up road loss but cover as an underdog. Plus they have cashed just seven of their last 26 tries as a home favorite when listed as a chalk between 14 1/2-21 points. Arkansas also 8-1 ATS as a road underdog the past three years and 11-2 ATS after three straight games where at least 60-points were scored. LSU 14-36 ATS in their last 50 November home games. Another intangible I like here is that Arkansas is expected to get back #1 QB Austin Allen, who has missed the last four games but had an 8-4 ratio before his injury. Arkansas comes off two one-point wins over Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina. Nobody will want the Hogs in this spot except me.
King Creole
Arkansas St at South Alabama
Play: Over 53
Predicted score according to the oddsmakers factoring in the pointspread and OU line is:
Arkansas State 31.5 - South Alabama 21.5
Our models and simulations point to a score of:
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES 35
SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS 24
That’s about 59 points, which is about 6 points MORE than the current OU line. Any College game with a total that’s 4.5 to 6 points higher or lower than our model triggers a 1* Play for our service.
Bob Balfe
Louisville -12
Virginia got themselves a nice win last week to get bowl eligible. Louisville is trying themselves to punch their ticket to a bowl game with a win today. The Cardinals have a great offense lead by forgotten Heisman Lamar Jackson. It’s amazing what a year can do when your defense struggles. Virginia has put up points this year at times, but I think they will struggle with superior athletes who are flat out stronger and quicker. It’s overwhelming when you have to try to match this Cardinals Offense score for score when your offensive line is inexperienced like the one Virginia had coming into this season. Look for a big double digit Cardinal win.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Mexico +17½ over TEXAS A&M
What we have here is a SEC team playing an out-of-conference game against a Mountain West foe so right off the bat, before a snap is even taken, the price on the Aggies is inflated. Looking beyond the X’s and O’s is also an important aspect of handicapping games because mindset plays a major factor in determining which team will cover. Always be aware of whether the schedule helps or hinders freshness, the mental and physical toll of each game and the running "pitch count." In that regard, A&M has nothing to gain here and everything to lose. They are also coming off games against Auburn, Miss St, Florida and Alabama and will likely treat this one as a glorified practice more than an actual game. The other side of that coin is that for New Mexico, this is an opportunity to pick up a massive victory against a Power-5 program and we’re going to give a huge edge to the Lobos in the all-important state of mind category. It’s not just that though, as there are not many teams we are more anxious to fade in a situation like this than the Aggies. Make no mistake that the SEC is so down that some pretty weak teams will finish with solid records thanks to an uncharacteristically soft schedule. Kentucky is one such team and the Aggies are likewise not nearly as good as their record suggests. Five straight wins over weak opposition and a moral victory against a disinterested Alabama do not mean that the problems which led to an A&M regent publicly calling for Kevin Sumlin's ouster back in September have gone away. Poor chemistry, insufficient physicality, overdependence on too few playmakers and an inability to cope with adversity continue to plague this team even as it improves. If Christian Kirk and Armani Watts had gone down in camp, the Aggies would probably be 2-7 right now instead of 5-4. The schedule has stiffened down the stretch and this crew might have already gotten its last win. We’ve been especially eyeing this visit from New Mexico as a deceptively fair fight and an appealing fade spot and it’s finally here.
AIR FORCE -3 over Wyoming
The Cowboys have been a broken slot machine, as they have covered in their last six outings. Most recently, Wyoming galloped to an outright win in Laramie when the Cowboys were a four-point dog against Colorado State. The collection of all these against-the-spread victories bolster the stock of the Cowboys, especially at this deceptively delicious offering. Two of Wyoming’s three losses came on the road this year. On the first occasion, the Cowboys lost at Iowa as a 12-point pup. Iowa would not even allow Wyoming to score a touchdown, as the Hawkeyes would smoke the Cowboys 24-3. Wyoming’s highly-touted quarterback Josh Allen who some regard as a first-round draft pick was picked off twice and held to under 200 yards passing. The next time we’d see Wyoming on the road, it was a one-point choice at Utah State and won 28-23. Now, we’re not sure if you have seen Utah State play, but the mere fact that Wyoming was just a one-point favorite over those dregs speaks volumes.
Timing is everything when it comes to picking a team to cover or not. Thus, if one were to get behind Wyoming here, it may win but that train left long ago and so those getting behind the dog here have already missed that opportunity. It now would be the right time to sell. Air Force comes in off their worst loss of the season when they were shutout by its comrades Army in a 21-0 blowout last week in Colorado Springs. Overall, the Falcons have gone 2-5 ATS in their previous seven contests. Just like it would be the worst time to buy Wyoming, it is also the worst time to sell on Air Force, which prompts us to step in.
While Wyoming was beating up on dreg after dreg like Gardner Webb, Texas State, Utah State and others, Air Force went 0-4 versus a pretty sporty lineup: powerhouse Michigan, an excellent Navy team, two-time defending Mountain West champ San Diego State and the best New Mexico squad in a decade. Air Force did not look out of place in any of those losses. Never mind the mounting losses -- Air Force has played only a handful of quarters of poor football all year. There's a big disparity between the Falcons' traditional, schedule-blind statistical profile and the picture painted by advanced, opponent-adjusted numbers. We'll see some 5-7 teams in bowls again this year, and the Falcons probably need to win two of their remaining three games to make the postseason. They'll be a short-priced favorite in two of those three games including this one and we’re not about to miss it. Air Force has gone 5-2 or better over the final seven regular-season games in each of the past three seasons. Well-coached teams improve as the season wears on. Air Force has a proven propensity toward that, and this bunch is already a whole lot better than the record suggests. That we only have to spot three points here is a true bargain.
PENN STATE -31over Rutgers
Penn State’s dream season has become a nightmare after two straight road losses. Two weeks ago, PSU was up on Ohio State before blowing the game late and then they chased that game with a loss to Michigan State last Saturday falling from #2 in the nation to #14. The Nittany Lions hope for a College Playoff appearance is now sketchy at best, as they need the country’s other top teams to stumble like they have. With their season effectively over many pundits and pick sellers have pondered what could possibly motivate Penn State the rest of the way but there is still a lot of football to be played and as a northern team, PSU will get every opportunity to crack the top four if two loss teams end up in consideration. The Lions lost both of those games by a combined four points against quality competition and after two losses, it's easy to forget this is the same team that blasted the Wolverines 42-13 just three weeks ago. Now they’re in a foul mood.
Rutgers comes into this game after winning three of its last four games and the market has noticed that this team has covered four straight games as well. The Scarlet Knights won outright against Maryland last Saturday as a 4½-point pooch, hung around at the Big House with Michigan (covering the 22-point spread) and they defeated Purdue 14-12 as a near double digit dog. While the win against the Boilermakers is a nice one, the Knights were outgained by 257 yards in that game, they were also outgained by 276 yards in Michigan and despite the win over Maryland, Rutgers was outgained in that one too.
This one sided rivalry has been all Penn State over the years. Last season PSU won easily 39-0 and covered as a -25 point favorite. Laying this kind of wood isn’t usually in our toolbox but sometimes there’s value, even in a 30-point favorite. The total in this game is 54, and we’re not confident that the Knights are going to be able to fulfill their end of the bargain, as this game has shutout written all over it. Penn State’s defensive leaders are ready to step up after a players-only meeting following the Ohio State loss and although they lost in East Lansing, this defense was once the number one scoring D in the country. This is the perfect game for PSU defense to regain its form and an even more perfect opponent to take its frustrations out on. On a cold day in Happy Valley, Rutgers is in for a long day.
Nebraska +105 over MINNESOTA
We’ll continue our assault on the Golden Gophers because the market has yet to adjust to its shortcomings. The Gophers started off well at 3-0 under the captainship of incoming Head Coach P.J. Fleck. The Gophers have since gone 1-5 but have a catalogue of losses that look far better than they actually appear. In retrospect some of those results continue to bolster the Gophers’ credentials because the teams that Minnesota earned “quality losses” against are teams that continue to impress down the backstretch. Most notably, Michigan State and Iowa who knocked off the B1G’s two big dogs, Penn State and Ohio State last week. The Golden Gophers lost to these two constituents by a combined margin of 10 points but we already highlighted previously that the scoreboard was not reflective of the manner in which those games were played. A series of junk-time touchdowns by the Gophers and backdoor scores made the final score look better than it actually was.
While the culture change will likely bear fruit for Minnesota in the long-term, this is an outfit that is not equipped to compete in the Big-10. Minnesota's extreme youth will continue to wear down as it navigates the rugged conference season and they’ll take the field here very likely not recovered from the beatdown and bruises that the Wolverines put on them last week.
Nebraska fell at home 31-24 in overtime last week to Northwestern. The Wildcats currently sit at #25 in the College Football Playoff Poll with a 6-3 record on the season. Despite the loss, Nebraska held a lead for most of the second half until the ‘Cats pulled even in the final six minutes. In the week prior, the Cornhuskers pulled off an outright upset at Purdue as a 3½-point pup. That occurred after a brutal back-to-back against Ohio State and Wisconsin in successive weeks. However, this market has not forgave Nebraska from an ugly home loss to Northern Illinois early in the year that included a change of athletic director. It also had third-year coach Mike Riley feeling the heat despite being just a few games into a program reset centered around new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco and transfer quarterback Tanner Lee. Diaco's unit has shown progress despite losing its best player, cornerback Chris Jones, to a knee injury in the summer. The Cornhuskers are losing but Riley has acknowledged issues within the offensive staff and it’s coming together. This bunch has had good chemistry all along, is rediscovering its running game and is becoming more efficient with each game. The popular narrative is that the Mike Riley era is already a failure and that this is a lame-duck staff. Here's a more likely alternative: The ‘Huskers close the season strong, Riley is retained, then in 2018 the Blackshirts really shine in the second year of Diaco's scheme, Lee stars as a senior thanks to Riley's well-documented prowess with second-year quarterback pupils, and Nebraska posts its best season since Frank Solich left town. There are lots of positives here and we're not ready to give up on this outfit just yet, especially as a dog to this bunch. Nebraska likely wins going away so that’s how we’ll play it.
MIAMI +152 over Notre Dame
We typically like to stay out of high-profile contests such as this one because the oddsmakers are very aware of the heavy action that will pour in and therefore the lines are that that much sharper or tighter. However, when there is value on the table we have to move in. For weeks, the discussion circulating Notre Dame football has been whether or not the Irish will get put into the College Football Playoff if they win out on the remainder of their schedule. Currently, the Irish sit at #3 in the present batch of College Football Playoff rankings with their sole defeat being a one-point loss at home when they hosted the top team in the land, The Bulldog Nation of Georgia. Against N.C. State, Notre Dame passed the test with flying colors, as they buried the Wolf Pack 35-10. Notre Dame won again last week against Wake as a 14½-point favorite and put up some single game records in the process in terms of total yardage. That resonates in the market but trust us when we tell you that Wake moved the ball at will on the Irish defense. Had three fumbles not landed in Notre Dame’s lap, we’d be discussing Wake’s upset over them. The point is that when the Irish are relevant to this extent, the premium to get behind them is amplified.
Despite a pedigree of excellence of their own, the Miami Hurricanes are an afterthought when it comes to being in the College Playoff rankings despite the fact they remain undefeated on the season. One can argue that the ‘Canes have been shown a lack of respect, as they are seventh in the aforementioned College Football Playoff poll behind four teams that have already lost at one point this season. We already mentioned Notre Dame, but the remaining three teams Clemson, Oklahoma, and TCU all balked in games they were favored to win. The two most significant scenarios were when Clemson was upset as a 24-point choice at Syracuse and when Oklahoma was stunned as a 31-point choice when they hosted Iowa State. TCU was also defeated by Iowa State as well despite being favored but the market had been aware of Iowa State’s prevalence at that point and thus, from an against-the-spread perspective, it was less of an upset.
Nevertheless, Miami must feel slighted sitting behind teams with such grizzly losses on their resume. This contest serves as an opportunity for Miami to throw its hat in the proverbial post-season ring. There is no reason why Mark Richt and company cannot do so. Despite the lack of faith from pollsters, the ‘Canes looked impressive in their most recent exploit when they trounced a then-ranked #13 Virginia Tech by a score of 28-10 as a two-point choice at home. But that result has fallen on deaf ears in the buildup to the next edition of the Catholics vs. the Convicts. However, we advise bettors to listen loud and clear, as this Miami team will enter this contest with a chip on its shoulder and with something to prove. A win against one of college football’s blue bloods on national television will garner the attention Miami feels it deserves. The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the country. Miami is playing much tougher defense this year, but Notre Dame’s offense is really rolling, so it's hard to see a defensive battle here. Coaches, players and fans all agreed that once Miami survived Va Tech, it would be better off for having done so and they didn’t just survive it, they thrived. This looks like the game where that experience pays off and Miami’s stock soars afterward.
Bruce Marshall
TCU at Oklahoma
Play: TCU +7
Effective CFP eliminator that might simply be Round One, as a replay is possible in the Big 12 title game in three weeks. Baker Mayfield’s Heisman stock rising in part because the leaky OU stop unit (36 ppg L6) forcing Sooners to stand on the accelerator each week. But TCU a rarity in Big 12 as it actually plays some defense (only 7 ppg allowed L4). As long as Kenny Hill (only 5 picks TY) doesn’t revert to bad habits as in ISU loss, Frogs (10-4 L14 as dog) can stay close in Norman.
Nelly
UL-Lafayette + over Mississippi
As Arkansas and Mississippi State proved last week a November non-conference game against a much lesser foe can be a great challenge. This could be an especially dangerous game for an Ole Miss squad that isn't eligible for the postseason and enters this game off two-straight dramatic finishes, scoring with five seconds to go to beat Kentucky on the road last week. UL-Lafayette has won three of its last four games in Sun Belt play and competed reasonably well earlier this season at Texas A&M, losing by 24 in a misleading final as they led the game at halftime and were competitive statistically. The Ragin' Cajuns lost by just 14 at Georgia last season in a similar scheduling spot, and Mississippi has allowed 5.6 yards per rush as both teams should be able to put up points. Ole Miss is allowing 6.4 yards per play on the season compared to 6.2 for UL-L and freshman quarterback Levi Lewis impressed last week in the win over South Alabama with two touchdown passes and great capability on the ground as he has averaged 7.2 yards per rush. That type of player will be a great challenge for an Ole Miss squad in a clear letdown spot with an already struggling defense. In the backfield Trey Ragas is gaining 5.9 yards per rush as well as there will be a great opportunity for the Cajuns to be a hefty underdog with a strong rushing total. The Rebels have the home finale with Texas A&M up next and then the Egg Bowl as this will be a dangerous game for Mississippi with an offense now led by an inexperienced quarterback as well coming off his best performance in just his third game. Mississippi has been out-rushed in eight of nine games this season and that should be the case this week with the Rebels enduring an seventh straight Saturday game now getting a break from SEC play and laying nearly three touchdowns against a motivated foe that needs two more wins to make the postseason and has a head coach with ties to Mississippi State.
Joey Juice
Gators are in a major rut and it doesn't get any better this week for them.
Florida, losers of 4 in a row, were dismantled by Missouri last Saturday 45-16 on the road, while South Carolina has won 3 of 4 as they lost to #1 Georgia last week 24-10, a respectable road loss for the Gamecocks.
A look inside the numbers tells us why we need to bet on South Carolina this week without a concern. The Gamecocks always play well in conference match ups, they are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 conference games. In fact, SC is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They also play well on grass as they are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
For the Gators the numbers don't look so good. November is never a good month for Florida, Gators are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Gators are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Bottom line is when the Gators are bad, they don't bounce back, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Gators continue to slide while South Carolina gets back to its winning ways.
3* SOUTH CAROLINA