Tommy Brunson
Last season Wake Forest ended a 4-game series slide versus Syracuse with the 28-9 home win and cover over the Orange.
Today at the Carrier Dome I look for the 'Cuse to nip the Demon Deacons series win streak at one.
Wake Forest is playing their second straight away from home, and it will be the fourth time in the past five weeks the Deacs are road-bound. Last weekend, Wake used a pair of late touchdowns to squeeze inside of the back-door at Notre Dame, but today they are not getting nearly as many points as they were last week against the Irish, and they are facing a Syracuse team that should be a little prickly after seeing their comeback attempt at Florida State fall just a little shy as the Orange lost for the second straight week on the road in Florida - the week before at Miami-Fla.
Syracuse has done a good job of taking care of business at home, where they have won 3 straight, including their signature win over Clemson.
In a game the oddsmakers have priced near a pick, think we are getting tremendous value with the home team.
Wake to run out of gas playing on the road yet again.
Take Syracuse.
5* SYRACUSE
Tommy Brunson
I am stunned at the price on this Michigan State-Ohio State game!?!?!
How can the 7-2 Spartans be this big of an underdog?!?!?!
Is this a "trap"!?!?!?
Urban Meyer's team was sitting pretty for the national championship playoff just one week ago, but the Buckeyes not only lost at Iowa, they were humiliated! In that loss, QB Barrett was picked off 4 times, and the defense was gouged for nearly 500 yards while allowing 55 points and 5 TD passes!
The Buckeyes have to be better this weekend back at home, but are they really this many points better than a Michigan State team that has given them fits I recent meetings? I don't believe they are!
Sparty has split the last 6 series meetings straight up with Brutus Buckeye, and 4 of those 6 meetings have been decided by no more than a field goal.
Ohio State is just 1-4 against the spread at home this season, and on an overall 6-15 home spread run their last 21. Meanwhile, Michigan State has covered 7 of their last 9 against the spread as the road dog.
Again, am I missing something with this line?
Take the points with Michigan State.
3* MICHIGAN STATE
Eric Schroeder
I wanted to give you Michigan State, and looked at every possible way the Spartans could go into Columbus, Ohio and hang with the Ohio State Buckeyes. Couldn't stick to one reason whatsoever.
Ohio State, which took it on the chin last week, is going to take all frustration out on the Spartans and could win this one by four touchdowns. Not even joking.
Michigan State upset Penn State last week, and now it has to back that up for a showdown with the Buckeyes? A Buckeyes team that was embarrassed by Iowa last week, and wants nothing more than to flex its muscles.
Sorry, but Urban Meyer will have his troops wound up for this one, and the Buckeyes will respond, looking to avenge the setback.
Take Ohio State here.
4* OHIO STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Over in the TCU-Oklahoma game.
Something has to give in Norman on Saturday night, as TCU enters with a 2-7 Over/Under mark for the year, while Oklahoma plays this game with a 6-3 Over/Under for the season.
Which way do you go?
I say sparks with fly tonight when the Horned Frogs and Sooners look to keep their playoff hopes alive and kicking.
Last year's meeting saw a combined 98-points as 2 of the last 3 Big 12 rivalry meetings between the schools have now landed Over the total.
You saw Oklahoma post 62 points in last week's Bedlam win at Oklahoma State, but you also saw them allow 52 points. The Sooners defense is pretty permissive, so figure on the Frogs finding the end-zone in this game.
3 of Okie's 4 home games this year have landed Over the total, and I suspect you can add another to the list when this game goes final.
TCU-Oklahoma Over the total.
3* TCU-OKLAHOMA OVER
Jack Brayman
In the most talked about game of the day - maybe the year - Miami and Notre Dame renew their rivalry in Coral Gables, and I'm taking the home underdog as my free play.
So here is the intangible I've gone over and over in my head with this game: turnovers.
Both of these teams are excellent at forcing turnovers. Miami has 20 takeaways, including three interceptions and a fumble recovery in last week's win against Virginia Tech, while Notre Dame has 19 takeaways and boasts a 108-10 advantage in points off miscues.
And while those stats are evenly impressive, I have to say that what means more is the home crowd atmosphere. The difference is building momentum with the home crowd when creating a turnover will be apparent.
The Hurricanes will be able to capitalize more than the Irish in this one, and I think they're going to put the clamps on Notre Dame's Josh Adams. A couple of good pops will put him on notice.
With just four weeks left in the college football season, and the CFB Playoff poll vulnerable, the Hurricanes have to have this game if they want to return to national prominence.
One mistake will make the difference today, and I'm banking on the Irish to make one too many. The U. is back!
2* MIAMI, FLA.
TJ Pemberton
Blackhawks vs. Hurricanes
Play: Blackhawks +120
Look for Chicago to bounce back on the road on Saturday. The Hurricanes get caught in a tough back-to-back spot heading into this one. Chicago ranks 2nd in the NHL in goals allowed per game. The Chicago Blackhawks have lost two straight games heading into this weekend. Chicago is 7-7-2 on the season and 6th in the Central. The Blackhawks are 3-6-1 over their last ten games and are 3-4-1 on the road this season. Anton Forsberg will make his 4th start of the season in the goal for Chicago. Forsberg is 0-1-2 on the season . Forsberg has allowed 11 goals and carries a 4.26 goals against average and a .895 save percentage.
Tony Karpinski
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Kentucky +2
I believe Vanderbilt has enough talent to put up points but the important keys to the team is in CB Mike Edwards's hands. Kentucky's DB can help out on defense when it comes time to double down the running game - and make things very tough for the opponents backs. Kentucky's CBs will not allow Vanderbilt to do what they want. The Wildcats can contain RBs very well - same here vs Vanderbilt. With this Vanderbilt team, they are always concerns on defense. The coaches cannot know how this struggling team is going to handle the pressure that comes with playing vs Kentucky on the road in a big game like this...they finally caught a win last week after dropping 5 straight. Vanderbilt's offense has never really been a factor, with just a 23.9 ppg average and 3 games scoring 14 or less. Vanderbilt has also had some serious problems with opening holes on the line for their backs all season. Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games Kentucky wins this one on the road Saturday evening.
Frank Jordan
Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Play: Michigan State +17
This is a big game in the Big Ten and in the country as two 7-2 teams look to move into the top 10 and improve their bowl game. Michigan State comes in as the number 12 team in the country and Ohio State comes in as the number 13 team in the land each with a 5-1 record in Big Ten play. Michigan State is coming off a win over then number seven Penn State 27-24 and also won at Michigan who was then number seven 14-10 earlier in the year to have a 2-0 record against ranked teams and 2-1 on the road. Ohio State is 1-1 against ranked teams losing the second game of the year to Oklahoma at home 31-16 and beating Penn State 39-38, but last week lost big time at Iowa 55-24. Can Ohio State bounce back with a win at home or will Michigan State stay unbeaten against ranked teams this year? Look for Michigan State to focus on what worked for Oklahoma and Iowa to work into their system to get up early on Ohio State and hold the lead squashing a comeback attempt and winning 34-30.
TJ Masterline
Edmonton vs. New York
Play: New York -119
The Rangers have been playing some fabulous hockey over the last 10 days, and they will keep that going today in day action against the Oilers. Here are some stats why we are pounding this one: Oilers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings. Oilers are 101-206 in their last 307 road games. Oilers are 37-81 in their last 118 Saturday games. Oilers are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Oilers are 4-10 in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference. Oilers are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. Metropolitan. Oilers are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Oilers are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win. Oilers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a win. Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall. Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Rangers are 24-9 in their last 33 vs. Western Conference. Rangers are 35-17 in their last 52 vs. Pacific. Rangers are 78-38 in their last 116 vs. a team with a losing record.
Chip Chirimbes
Los Angeles vs. Milwaukee
Play: Los Angeles +5
Los Angeles is 6-6 ATS which is not bad when one considers their all coveted draft pick Lonzo Ball's dreadful shooting (at 29.2%) and the teams youth. Milwaukee is off an 'outright' upset win over San Antonio and may still have their heads in the clouds when this one starts.
Chip Chirimbes
Los Angeles vs. Milwaukee
Play: Los Angeles +5
Los Angeles is 6-6 ATS which is not bad when one considers their all coveted draft pick Lonzo Ball's dreadful shooting (at 29.2%) and the teams youth. Milwaukee is off an 'outright' upset win over San Antonio and may still have their heads in the clouds when this one starts.
Wunderdog
Columbus vs. Detroit
Pick: Columbus -109
Columbus has won six of the last eight meetings, including the last three as the Blue Jackets look to snap a four-game losing streak. Detroit is playing its first home game following a four-game trip in which the Red Wings ended it with a 6-3 loss at Calgary on Thursday. The Wings are playing just their second home game in their last nine games. Petr Mrazek gave up five goals against the Flames and Jimmy Howard will probably get the call tonight. Joonas Korpisalo is expected to make his fourth start for the Blue Jackets, who have won six of their last eight against teams with losing records. Detroit is 1-6 when playing with one day of rest and 0-4 its last four games after losing by at least three goals and just 18-39 its last 57 against Eastern Conference teams. Look for Columbus to get back on track and play the Blue Jackets.
OC Dooley
Duke -3.5
The key to this selection has to do with the fact that Duke is coming off a "bye" which is critical since they have now had TWO WEEKS to prepare for an opponent who operates with an "option" based offense. Arguably the Blue Devils are facing today's opponent at the perfect time as Army as a road underdog (+6) just upset Air Force by a 21-0 count in an all-military battle. That sets up a 75-PERCENT SYSTEM (42-14 spanning the past 25 years) which actually plays AGAINST teams like Army off a blowout win of at least 21 points cast as an underdog, a good team (60-to-80 win percentage) facing an opponent with a below .500 overall record. To add to that system Army is on an 0-6 ATS skid when facing a "marginal losing" opponent (40-to-49 percentage). In a strange THREE YEAR statistic when facing an opponent who struggles on special teams (averaging less than 7.5 yards per punt return) in front of the HOME fans Army is a dreadful 0-6 ATS
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA +102 over Winnipeg
OT included. The Jets’ bubble burst last night when they went into Vegas and got whacked 5-2. They’ll now play the tail end of back-to-back games, which means career stiff, Steve Mason will get the call in goal. That’s enough reason to fade the Jets but there’s more. Winnipeg is an analytics mess. Their Corsi against numbers are the second worst in the NHL ahead of only the Colorado Avalanche. This is truly a top-heavy team that relies on its top-two lines to carry the play but when any other line is out there, the Jets get dominated. Only the Schiefele/Wheeler/Ehlers line has a positive Corsi For while the rest of the lines spend more time in their own end. Connor Hellebucyk has bailed his team out plenty of times this year but he won’t be between the pipes to bail him out here.
Arizona is a frustrated team to be sure. They have been in plenty of games only to lose it in the third period. They have had two goal leads in plenty of those game too and they are scoring the first goal of the game more than any team in the NHL. We’re not suggesting for a second that the Coyotes are dominating games but we also know that they should have many more wins than they do and eventually things will even out for them. This is now a great opportunity for the ‘Yotes to put it all together against a team that played last night and who might be ripe for a slow start. After another very good game in St. Louis in which they lost in OT, the Coyotes are on the verge of some wins, as there is nothing in their game that suggests their spirit has been broken. The short (enticing) price here on the Jets is nothing but fool’s gold.
Minnesota +111 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. We faded the Flyers in their last game versus Chicago, citing that Brian Elliott was a weak option that can’t be trusted while Corey Crawford was having a great season so far. As it turned out, Elliott had his best game of the year and Philadelphia won despite being out-Corsied, 57-41 and being out-chanced by wide margin too. It happens. Every goalie in this league is capable of getting very lucky or being in the “zone” but that doesn’t change our position. We have to stick with it so we’ll reiterate that that Elliott has some of the worst under the hood numbers among all qualified goaltenders. His chances of another great game here are slim with the more likely scenario being that he gives up more goals than the Flyers will score.
Minnesota is not playing great hockey but they’re coming off a confidence boosting 3-0 win in Montreal and anytime we can take back a price with the superior goaltending, we know we have a great chance to win that bet and that applies here. The fade on Elliott will continue when Philadelphia is favored in this range against a team that is probably better than they are anyway. The analytics do not like either one of these teams right now but the Wild's numbers might be negatively skewed because they had a boatload of key injuries when the season began and well into the first month. Minnesota’s numbers will very likely improve under Bruce Boudreau and we’re the beneficiaries of that here in this price.
Toronto +126 over BOSTON
We trust we had the right side last night when the Bruins went into Toronto and lost 3-2 in OT but Boston had a 2-1 lead with a minute remaining in the third before they broke our hearts. We are always mindful of not zig-zagging in situations like this but when it comes to betting on sports, nothing's carved in stone so we’ll make an exception here. You see, the market has this all wrong. Last night it was Frederik Andersen against Anton Khudobin making it a #1 goalie for Toronto versus a #2 for Boston but that’s only by virtue of what each goaltender is being paid. Tonight it appears as though Boston has the edge in goal with Tuukka Rask against Curtis McElhinney but we’re suggesting otherwise. Tuukka Rask is the second best goaltender on the Bruins while Curtis McElhinney might be the best goaltender on the Leafs. The market, however doesn’t see it that way so we get an inflated price on the Leafs for that reason combined with the fact that Austin Matthews is still out. We’re not going to go into a lot of detail here regarding these two teams. Toronto is the vastly superior team and it’s worth mentioning that Mitch Marner is slowly but surely coming around again and while nobody can compensate for Matthews, Marner shifting into gear and becoming the threat he was last year makes a big difference. At the end of the day, Boston on its best day cannot be favored in this range against the Maple Leafs with or without Matthews.