Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 12th, 2016

Sleepyj

Mississippi St +29

Miss St really saved the season last week with a big win over #4 Texas A&M....Don't look into the big #4 ranking, it was never warranted in the first place...Fact is the Bulldogs have a shot to compete here...That win helped them set themselves up for a bowl birth if they can manage to grab a win in the last 3 games...They matched up very well beating Texas A&M, so I believe the mindset for them is what if we just go out and play our best like we did last week, can we actually shock the world....Well no that's prob not going to happen, but I'm not a fan of the Tide coming off a brutal slugfest with LSU...Bama also won that game so perhaps they overlook the Bulldogs....Bama has no look ahead which is a concern, but it's a virtual layup game for them against Chattanooga the week after..So perhaps they take a vacation early....I like the mindset angle here for the Bulldogs and the fact that they are still live in the bowl birth area...This is a Conference game which should bring out the best of both teams...If you go back and look at the Bulldogs last 4 games, they really haven't been blown out in the losses...They very well might be playing the best football right now and the last game would indicate that is true...I think the Bulldogs brings everything they have and the kitchen sink..It won't be enough for a W, but all we care about is a cover..Getting +29 is a good number IMO.

Bruce Marshall

Tex San Antonio at Louisiana Tech
Pick: Tex San Antonio +22.5

Don't overlook surprising UTSA, continuing to punch above its weight for first-year HC Frank Wilson and remaining in the C-USA West race after weekend romp at MTSU. League-leader La tech a tougher challenge this week but note that lesser Larry Coker Roadrunner editions covered the last three meetings vs. Skip Holtz-coached Tech. UTSA has balance with thundering RB Jarveon Williams and dancin' QB Dalton Sturm.

Wunderdog

Iowa St @ Kansas
Pick: Under 56

The Big-12 has become The Big Shootout as many of their games see scoring like we have not seen before. Left behind the scoring barrage are a pair of teams that simply aren't very offensively minded, and pay the consequences by occupying the lower tier of the Big-12 standings. Kansas may be the epiotome of lack of offense as the Jayhawks have not averaged 20 points per game since 2011, and in their last 57 games have averaged just 17.1 ppg. It has resulted in a 32-22-2 mark to the UNDER. The last time Iowa State averaged over 25 ppg was all the way back to 2008. Since the start of the 2009 season, the Cyclones are an UNDER machine at 54-33-6. This total is way too high, as the last 10 meetings between these teams has seen an average of just 51.6 ppg scored, and just one of the last six meetings have reached this total.

Alan Harris

Texas Tech / Oklahoma St Over 90

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Texas Tech Red Raiders hit the road to take on the Oklahoma St. Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK, on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a 6-1 record to the over in their last seven games following an ATS loss and they have gone an excellent 10-2 in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record. They have also gone up and over the number in 19 of their last 26 road games versus a team with a winning % of .500 or higher at home. The Cowboys have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four games where they faced a team with a losing record and they have gone an impressive 10-2 to the over in their last twelve Big-12 games. They have also gone 8-3 to the over in their last eleven games following a straight up win and they have been one of the best teams to the over at home, going a lights out 63-31-2 to the over in their last 96 games at Boone Pickens. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 5-2 to the over in their last seven games in Stillwater and a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four overall and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into an old fashioned Big-12 shootout on Saturday afternoon in Oklahoma.

Jason Sharpe

Hawaii (+17.5) over Boise State

Boise State's dream of an undefeated season was ruined a few weeks ago in their loss at Wyoming as the Broncos led the entire way until a late-game collapse ended their perfect season. It won't be easy for Boise State to get themselves focused and motivated following that type of defeat, and we saw proof of that last week as they struggled to beat a bad San Jose State team that they were favored by 31.5 points over. They now have to fly out to Hawaii and take care of business, which isn't an easy thing for teams to concentrate on doing, especially when they are already lacking in the very important concentration department. Hawaii started the season off playing a schedule that no CFB team should ever have to endure. Once things settled down, though, the Rainbows played much better as they won 3 of 5 games overall, and those 2 losses came in just one-possession games. They were badly embarrassed, though, last week in a no-show 55-0 loss at red hot San Diego State. That's the type of ugly defeat that should help them here in this game bring back the much-needed intensity. Look for the Rainbows to keep things closer than expected here against what is likely an unfocused favorite. Take Hawaii plus the points in this game.

Allen Eastman

Air Force (-5.5) over Colorado St

Home field has played a big part in this series. This is a rivalry up in Colorado, and the home team has won four straight and five of six meetings. Air Force has gotten the better of the Rams and has beaten Colorado State in eight of the last 10 years. The Falcons are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings against Colorado State, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four. Air Force has won back-to-back games on the road. That includes a strong game last week in a win over Army. I think that this team has some momentum and has turned things around after a downturn and three straight losses in October. Colorado State has gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. But now the books are onto them. And the public is going with the underdog here. But all the trends favor the home team, and I think that Air Force will get the job done.

Brad Powers

W. Kentucky / North Texas Over 64.5

Western Kentucky was leading FIU 49-7 after 3Q’s last week before they took the foot off the gas pedal and failed to cover as 33-point home favorites. On the other side, we wish Louisiana Tech would’ve taken their foot off the gas pedal as they were leading North Texas 31-24 in the 3Q and scored the game’s final 14 points as we failed to cover our North Texas +20 pick by a single point. As for this matchup, WKU is averaging 51 ppg in their last 6 games and the OVER is 4-1 in WKU’s last 5 games as their defense has allowed 29 ppg. North Texas is facing the best offense its’ seen all year and just gave up 45 to a similar LT team. Early weather forecast has this one Sunny and near 60 degrees with less than 10 mph wind. That's not too bad for a game played in Kentucky in Mid-November.

Colorado St.+6

Two straight outright upsets in this series with Air Force winning 27-24 (+7.5) over No. 21 Colorado St in 2014 while last year Colorado St got revenge with a 38-23 (+3) win. Both teams come in sky high as the Falcons took home the Commander-In-Chief Trophy as they beat Army 31-12 (+1). Sophomore QB Worthman threw for 195 yards, added 63 yards rushing and looks like a very capable replacement to Romine. Meanwhile, Colorado St after a bye decimated Fresno St 37-0 (-16.5) and have now covered 4 straight games (6-1-1 ATS since the opener and that blowout loss to Colorado doesn’t look so bad now). The move back to last year’s starting QB Stevens due to injury has been a blessing in disguise for them. The Rams now need just one more win for bowl eligibility and that's also a positive handicap this time of year. On the flip side, AF is 2-11 ATS after playing Navy or Army since 2010 and could be in a bit of a flat spot after taking home the CIC Trophy.

Kansas +10.5

Iowa St won last year’s meeting 38-13 but the last time here they were -3 and lost outright 34-14. After last week’s 34-24 loss (+20.5) at home to Oklahoma, the Cyclones are just 1-8 SU on the season but have notably covered 6 of their last 7 games. The Jayhawks are also 1-8 SU on the season but have lost 8 straight since the opener going 2-6 ATS in those games. Last week they fell to West Virginia 48-21 (+32.5) on the road. This is the Cyclones’ largest road favorite role since 2005 and I love playing against mediocre teams in unique, large favorite roles (you have to learn how to win before you learn how to cover)! I like the home dog here who has performed much better at home this year (+41 ypg) and that includes a near upset of TCU and a very misleading 3-TD loss to Oklahoma St where the yards were even but the TO's killed Kansas.

Oklahoma-17

After a 6-0 start, Baylor has lost 2 straight and last week were crushed at home by TCU 62-22 (-7.5). With an interim coach, a depth-shy roster that will see them playing without RB Linwood here (suspension) and a lot of off-field turmoil, this is a team that you need to fade immediately. It’s not like they’ve been good anyways this year at 2-6 ATS while playing a very soft schedule. On the other side, Oklahoma has a couple of extra days to prepare following a 34-24 (-20.5) win at Iowa St last Thursday. They are 6-0 in Big 12 play and welcome back RB’s Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon this week. No doubt the Sooners want revenge from an embarrassing 48-14 (+5.5) home loss to the Bears 2 years ago and they’ll get it in easy fashion over a dumpster fire Baylor team. This line has climbed throughout the week. I'd suggest you get in early.

Washington / USC Under 63.5

The Trojans are playing with revenge from a 17-12 (-17) loss at home to Washington last year which was the final game under Sarkisian. USC has won 5 straight games have been +150 yards in all 5 games. This atmosphere will really test young USC QB Sam Darnold who has been a revelation so far this season (20-3 TD-to-INT ratio). Washington QB Browning has a ridiculous 34-3 TD-to-INT ratio this season and the Huskies let out some frustration for the their initial CFB Playoff ranking last week as they dismantled Cal 66-27 (-19.5) with a 704-362 yard edge. USC has performed much better at home than on the road in the Helton era as the Trojans are just 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS on the road. Washington is 8-1 to the OVER this year which has driven up this totals’ line but USC counters with 5 straight UNDERS. They've played a slower tempo under head coach Helton (UNDER is 11-4 last 15 games) and Washington is unlikely to run up the score here as they've done against the weaker teams on their schedule this season.

DAVE COKIN

APPALACHIAN ST AT TROY
PLAY: TROY -1

Note that the line has moved a bit on this game. I sent it out to my clients at pick ’em, but Troy is now the favorite everywhere as I’m posting this edition.

This is the game of the year in the Sun Belt between two of the three teams still perfect in league play. Head to head it’s very close, but Troy has the stat edge by a little bit, ands I have them rated slightly ahead of Appalachian State on my team rankings.

It’s certainly no surprise to see Appalachian State vying for the conference title. The Sun Belt figured as a three-team chase prior to the season, and the Mountaineers along with Arkansas State are living up to billing. The other projected contender was Georgia Southern, but that team has been a flop and I was pleased to see UL Lafayette top them last night in SBC action.

Troy was considered to be a notch below that trio, but the Trojans provided plenty of early season indication that they might be underrated when they gave Clemson a tremendous battle at Death Valley. That sure wasn’t a fluke as Troy subsequently upset Southern Mississippi in the very next game, and the Trojans have won ’em all since. In the process, they’ve actually passed Arkansas State on my SBC pecking order, and I now have them dead even with Appalachian State

I definitely feel it’s going to be a one-score differential and the game might well get decided at the wire. But off the data and also owning the home field advantage, I am going to take Troy to squeeze out the win and cover.

Jesse Schule

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Under 90

We all know that Texas Tech is often involved in high scoring games, but the total for this week's game at Oklahoma State is unbelievably high. To put it in perspective, the Cowboys have not come close to 90 points in any of their previous nine games this season. They have played several teams with high powered offenses, and still they held Pittsburgh, Texas and Baylor to under 40 points.

Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the nation in passing, and he threw for a whopping 734 yards and five TDs in a 66-59 loss to Oklahoma just three weeks ago. He hasn't put up those kind of numbers against the better defenses in the BIG12 though, and five of the Red Raiders six games versus BIG12 teams have finished with far fewer than 90 total points.

These teams have gone over the total in four straight meetings since 2012, but the total for this week's game is more than 10 points higher than it was in any of the previous meetings. In fact they failed to score 90 points in three of those four games. It seems a little optimistic to think we'll see such a shootout. So many things have to go right for a game to turn into a barn burner, and it doesn't take much to derail a high flying offense. A few offensive penalties, an injury, or a few turnovers.. and all of a sudden 5-10 have come off the clock without any points being added.

Tony George

Tulsa vs. Navy
Play: Navy -2

The Middies at home were getting points opening up in this one against the Golden Hurricanes but the line has flopped 5 points and may get bigger because Navy is a giant killer at home. Some see this as loss of value, I see it as a line correcting itself,and while I loved them at +3, and still like them laying less than the fall number of 3 at home here. Many may remember the absolute meltdown they has at South Florida on a Friday Night a few weeks back, but they came back and made it a 7 point ballgame. That really is the only slip for the Middies this year, and they are off a confidence building win at Notre Dame here and are in a dogfight for the 1st place position against Tulsa in this one in the ACC West Division, a team they beat last year on the road 44-21.

Tulsa does not lack talent by any means and Dane Evans is a solid QB for them. The KEY in this game in Navy's running game, ranked 4th in the nation and an offense that beat Notre Dame as mentioned, Memphis and Houston this year rushing for more than 300 yards per game, and expertly lead on offense by QB Will Worth who has just enough prowess throwing the ball with 15 passing TD's to confuse defenses and move the chains and eat up the clock, which keeps Tulsa's offense off the field.

Navy is 9-2 ATS at home their last 11 and I like their head coach and their defense seems to play better at home as well.

Brandon Lee

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech -14

I made the mistake of going against Duke at home with the Hokies last week, but I'm not jumping off the Virginia Tech bandwagon after failing to cover that game. The Blue Devils are a much better team than I gave them credit for and they proved it again on Thursday when they beat North Carolina outright as a double-digit home dog. The key here is that after failing to cover their last two on the road, I think we are getting some great value with the Hokies only laying two touchdowns at home against a Georgia Tech team that just lost by 28 at North Carolina last time out. Virginia Tech has been dominant on their home field this season. They beat BC 49-0, East Carolina 54-17 and Miami 37-16. This isn't one the Hokies are going to take lightly, as a win locks up the Coastal title and a spot in the ACC Championship Game, where they will have a chance to showcase themselves against Clemson. All you have to do is look at the common opponents to see the gap in talent between these two teams. They have 5 common opponents to date. In those games, Georgia Tech is averaging 26.0 ppg, while the Hokies are averaging 36.6. Defensively, the Yellow Jackets are allowing 33.8 ppg and 461.8 ypg, while Va Tech is only allowing 15.2 ppg and 290.6 ypg.

Scott Spreitzer

Wyoming -7½

We have ridden Wyoming a few times of late in winning fashion, including last Saturday night when they whipped Utah State. Many were looking for the Cowboys to suffer a letdown coming off the big win over Boise State. We jumped on board when the number came down. Once again, some are expecting Wyoming to be a little off their game with San Diego State on deck. And once again, we aren't buying into that belief. HC Craig Bohl won multiple titles at North Dakota State and knows how to keep his team focused on the task at hand. The Cowboys also own the best RB most have never heard of in Brian Hill, who has rushed for 1,298 yards on nearly 6 yards per carry. Hill and the Wyoming offensive line should have little trouble wearing down the UNLV defense, while the Cowboy stop unit faces what has been an inconsistent Rebel offense with shaky leadership at QB, no matter which of their three signal callers have been behind center (114th in yards passing per game).

Matt Josephs

UTEP vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: UTEP +3

Two of the worst teams in Conference USA play in this one. The Miners have won two of their last three behind the running game of Aaron Jones. FAU has had massive problems stopping the run this year allowing multiple teams to put up over 200 yards on the ground. The Owls offense is very inconsistent. UTEP's actually played the pass pretty well holding each of the last seven opponents to less then 270 yards through the air. I can't imagine there is much of a homefield advantage for FAU who has just two wins on the season. The Owls have been favored 12 times the last three years and have not covered a single game. They've also failed to cover in 19 of their last 33 overall.

Chip Chirimbes

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Texas Tech +12½

What look like a promising season has turned for Texas Tech as they have lost four of their last five while Oklahoma State has won five straight. The Cowboys have also won the last seven meetings with Tech including the last six by double-digits. The Red Raiders need to win 2-of-3 to become bowl eligible a surprise for a team that averages 46.2 points and 590 yards total offense. Of course they allow 41.8 points per contest. With Pat Mahomes leading the way (31 TD's) Red Raiders have enough.