Bryan Leonard
Pittsburgh vs. Clemson
Play: Pittsburgh +21
The Panthers have been highly competitive in every game until losing 51-28 last week at Miami Florida. But in that game Pitt lost the turnover battle by two and for the first time all season didn’t have a sack advantage. That strong line play gives the Panthers a real shot to stay under the number against Clemson.
On the season Pitt has an outstanding sack advantage of 18 against FBS squads. That matches up well with the strength of Clemson, which is line play. The Tigers are up 16 sacks on the opposition, a major reason for the teams success. Without that large edge in the trenches Clemson won’t be able to dominate the Panthers. That gives us plenty of room to stay within this three touchdown spread.
Alex Smart
LSU vs. Arkansas
Play: Under 46
Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their most impressive effort of the season in a 31-10 smack down of Florida last week. The Arkansas defense, which looked like it was asleep at the proverbial wheel the previous week in a 56-3 loss to Auburn, was over powering against the Gators, allowing just 12 rushing yards. Coach Brett Bielema used the extra time to revamp his starting 11 on the defensive side of the ball, and it looks like it worked wonders. Meanwhile, LSU lost a hard fought 10-0 decision to Alabama, but once again showcased a D, that is on par with the best of the SEC. With that said, look for a game that features alot of clock moving old fashioned grinding football.
LSU is 8-0 UNDER in all games this season. Orgeron is 16-6 UNDER L/22 after playing a game at home in all games he has coached.
All CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 like the Razorbacks - average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game have gone under 30 of 36 times in the following game.
Marc Lawrence
Army vs. Notre Dame
Play: Army +14
Edges - Cadets: 3-0 ATS last three games as dogs of 7 or more points; and better offense and better defense than Notre Dame this season. Fighting Irish: 1-7 ATS with a losing record in games versus military teams. With Notre Dame allowing 16 YPG more than they are gaining this season, we recommend a 1* play on Army.
Bill Biles
North Texas vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Western Kentucky -28
Western Kentucky has scored 44 or more in six straight, pushing it to fifth in FBS in yards per play at 7.53. North Texas does not have the offense to keep up with W. Kentucky and they will be forced into mistakes. Western Kentucky wins this one big.
Sam Martin
West Virginia vs. Texas
Play: Texas -2
We have many concerns about the Texas defense and don't trust them enough to give this selection out as a premium pick, however, the fact that Texas is a favorite against West Virginia is an obvious trap line and we'll go opposite of the obvious play this Saturday. Not only has Texas been playing well the last few weeks, but West Virginia is in a horrible motivational spot having to play on the road right before they take on the Big 12 leading Oklahoma Sooners next week. Avoid the trap - back Texas as a Longhorns lead will negate the WVU running game.
Freddy Wills
Tulsa vs. Navy
Play: Navy -2
Navy knows what is at stake here and that’s a trip to the AAC Championship game. I think we are getting value here with Navy due to Tulsa’s domination over East Carolina and recent success against 3 really bad teams in a row. Tulsa actually got a bit lucky last week as East Carolina’s QB got hurt very early in that game, but they still managed to throw for 474 yards with a backup QB. There is no doubt that Tulsa’s defense is more experienced and better than last year. One of their coaches used to coach with Navy, but that was back in 1999 and his scheme running a 5-2 defense did not help last year, and I don’t see it helping this year. This is a team that has given up big numbers to some bad offenses and Navy has one of the best offenses that Tulsa will see all year.
Navy on the other hand will give up their fair share of points in this one, but overall they are at home, well coached and they know what is on the line, a conference championship. Navy under Will Worth at QB has been excellent since taking over early in the season when Tago Smith went down. He has this offense playing just as well as last year despite the conference being more used to the triple option. What this game really comes down to his how each team does in key situations like the red zone and third down, and not turning the ball over. I give Navy an edge in all categories.
Here are the numbers. Navy has a 76% red zone TD% compared to Tulsa’s 59% and on the defensive side Navy has limited opponents to just 24 red zone attempts and a 58% success rate and have given up only 12 rushing TD’s all season, 4 at home. Tulsa on the other hand has allowed 38 attempts, and 60% TD’s, and have allowed 13 rushing TD’s in their 4 road games alone. I think Navy can control the game here as they average 35 minutes at home while Tulsa averages 28 on the road, and they will be better in these key situations which should give them a win.
Sean Murphy
California vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State -14½
Cal is mired in a difficult season, having gone 4-5 overall and 2-4 in Pac-12 play. Things won't get any easier on Saturday night as the Golden Bears head to Pullman to face what I consider to be an underrated Washington State squad.
The Cougars are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS and fresh off an easy 69-7 rout of Arizona at home last Saturday. I look for them to keep it rolling here as they play with double revenge following back-to-back close losses against Cal over the last two years.
The difference here should be the Cougars defense. While Washington State is known for its offense, I don't believe its defense should be overlooked. This is a unit that can get torched at times, but also one that is capable of rising to the occasion. I see this as a manageable matchup against a Bears offense that has struggled with consistency over the last couple of games.
Washington State has outgained all but one of its opponents this season in terms of total yardage and I look for it to control proceedings again on Saturday night.
Teddy Covers
SMU vs. East Carolina
Play: SMU +7
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Less than a month ago, Chad Morris’s Mustangs were in a world of hurt. Starting QB Matt Davis was knocked out for the year, and the offense couldn’t get going under his replacement, redshirt frosh Ben Hicks. Meanwhile, their defense got lit up in back-2-back ugly losses against TCU and Temple, and it wasn’t any better following their heartbreaking OT loss to Tulsa the following week.
But the Tulsa game marked a turning point for the coach who designed Clemson’s offense and was one of the hottest coaching commodities out there when he took this job prior to the 2015 season. SMU hung 40 in that game, and Hicks was a big reason why. He followed that up with a strong showing in a shockingly easy upset over Houston the following week. Then, on the road at Tulane, Hicks (a Top 50 QB prospect coming out of high school -- the guy Morris wanted for this job) enjoyed his first 300 yard passing effort as a collegiate quarterback as he rallied the Mustangs from behind on the road in a real flat spot at Tulane.
Hicks is playing much, much better than he was a month ago. RB Braedon West is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. WR ‘s Courtland Southerland and James Proche will be two of the top playmakers on the field here. And the much maligned SMU defense has improved as well; particularly against the pass, sealing the game at Tulane with a game ending interception just one week after shutting down Houston’s Greg Ward.
But with all of that mid-season momentum, the Mustangs took a big step back last week, blown out at home by Memphis. Head coach Chad Morris: “This was the worst we've played this year. It's disappointing as a coach that we gave that performance. We didn't play well in all phases." Morris basically read his team the riot act after the game, making it very clear that he would not tolerate ‘quitting’. QB Hicks concurred: "We just didn't have the same edge that we had the last couple of weeks. We didn't have a good practice, the focus wasn't very good, and I think it carried over. I just don't think we understand how to win. I think we felt like we'd arrived. Winning two games and then coming out and laying a goose egg like that is embarrassing.”
Expect SMU’s ‘A’ game here, and that’s bad news for an East Carolina team that has been a real moneyburner, with only one SU win and cover since Week 2. They lost on this field by 18 as favorites against Tulsa, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if Scott Frost’s squad comes up on the short end of the scoreboard again here.
Jimmy Boyd
Georgia +10½
Unless you follow the SEC closely, you might not know how big a rivalry game this is. Despite playing in opposite divisions, these two play each year. It’s the oldest rivalry in the deep south. Given that, I think the value here is clearly with the Bulldogs as a double-digit home dog.
Auburn is the better team, but that doesn’t mean as much in rivalry games like this. This is also a beat up Tigers team at the moment, especially on offense. Sean White will start at quarterback, but isn’t 100%. They could also be without RB Kamryn Pettway, who suffered an injury late against Vandy. Pettway is Auburn’s leading rusher at 1,106 yards. He’s scored 7 touchdowns and is averaging 6.4 yards/carry.
Keep in mind they will be going up against a very good Georgia defense. The Bulldogs rank 16th in the country in total defense (324.1 ypg). Most importantly, they are outstanding against the run, giving up just 118.2 ypg. Note they are only giving up 2.9 yards/carry against the run at home this season.
It won’t be easy for Georgia to score on this Auburn defense, but I think they can do enough here to cover. While freshman quarterback Jacob Eason has had his ups and downs, he’s got 11 TD’s to just 5 INT’s. I also think the duo of Sony Michel and Nick Chubb can have some success running the ball here.
It’s also worth pointing out that Auburn has history of not playing as well late in the season. The Tigers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November. Georgia on the other hand is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in the final month of the regular season. The Bulldogs are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games.
Mike Anthony
Wyoming vs. UNLV
Play:Wyoming -7.5
Wyoming actually has been really good with their ball hawking skills with 13 picks in their games, with CBs like Logan Wilson and Marcus Epps, the UNLV QB is going to have a bunch of problems finding guys open. Wyoming has been chest to chest with opponenets on the passing game of opponents. UNLV has had a problem keeping WRs from getting yards after the catch. Tanner Gentry is a superior YAC guy. The Rebels seem to struggle with getting that first tackle out of the way, Gentry is going to run wild. UNLV has shown some poor tackling, especially within their 1st level of defense. Rebels are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and just not a good team this year.
Rob Vinciletti
Washington -7.5
The Huskies have covered the last 4 in this series at home and are still a bit under rated despite being ranked 4th. They have covered 9 of 12 vs conference revenge and beat USC by 5 last year on the road. USC is 0-7 ats when losing as a conference road dog and is 0-6 ats as a conference road dog of late. USC has been blown out on the road by the 2 solid teams they have played.
Will Rogers
Stanford vs. Oregon
Pick: Oregon
The set-up: Stanford opened the season ranked No. 8 in the AP’s preseason poll and Oregon began at No. 24. No one should have been surprised, as Stanford had gone 66-15 the previous six years, appearing in major bowls (BCS or New Year's Six) five times. Oregon’s success had gone back further, having previously won 10 or more games each season from 2006 through 2014, sporting a combined 80-14 (.851) record. As the teams get set to meet Saturday in Eugene, Stanford is 6-3 (4-3 in the Pac 12 North) and Oregon 3-6 (1-5 in the Pac 12 North).
Stanford: Injuries have kept Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey out of the Heisman Trophy race but he did rush for a season-high 199 yards in Stanford’s 26-15 home win last Saturday over Oregon State. He ranks fourth nationally in all-purpose yards at 190.1 per game but with 973 rushing yards and 287 yards on KO returns, he’ll fall well short of the 2,019 rushing and 1,070 KO return yards he produced in the 2015 season. QB Keller Chryst threw for just 60 yards last week against Oregon State in his second career start but added 83 on the ground, as the Cardinal ran the ball on their final 29 plays from scrimmage. He’s no Andrew Luck, or for that matter, a Kevin Hogan. Stanford’s offense ranks 120th in scoring (19.9 PPG) and 123rd in total offense (317.8 YPG). However, the defense is top-notch, allowing 18.6 PPG (15th) on 345.9 YPG (22nd).
Oregon: The Ducks opened the 2016 season with back-to-back home wins of 53-28 over UC-Davis and 44-26 over Virginia. However, Oregon followed with back-to-back three-point losses to Nebraska (35-32) and Colorado (41-38). It marked the first time the school had lost consecutive times, ending a 70-game streak! Adding insult to injury, Oregon followed with three more losses, extending its losing streak to five in a row. Following a 54-35 home win over ASU, Oregon lost 45-20 at USC. Oregon may have averaged 34.6 PPG in its five-game slide but that hardly helps when a team’s defense allows 49.8 PPG.
The pick: Like Stanford, Oregon has turned to a new starting QB in freshman Justin Herbert. However, after playing well in his first two starts, he threw for only 162 yards and a touchdown against USC while facing constant pressure. The Ducks also averaged just 2.8 YPC, as Tony Brooks-James started in place of an ineffective Royce Freeman. Yes, Oregon’s defense is a sieve, allowing 42.6 PPG (126th) on 535.2 YPG (127th) but Stanford’s offense will not likely be able to really capitalize on that. Stanford’s stop-unit is terrific but Oregon has averaged 42.0 PPG here at Autzen Stadium. Ducks quack louder than the Cardinal in this one.
Brandon Shively
Mississippi St vs. Alabama
Pick: Under
I am going to refer back to strong historical data and advise a play on the ‘UNDER’. To set the stage for this game, Alabama is coming off a tough physical game against LSU. The Tide play LSU every year and usually play Mississippi State the following week. Mississippi State is coming off a win as a home underdog against Texas A&M.
The UNDER is a perfect 10-0 in Alabama’s following game after playing LSU with an average of only 37 points scored. Of those 10 games, the score after the first quarter has been 6 points or fewer in 8 of the 10 games so a play on the UNDER in the 1st quarter is also worth a look.
When Alabama is off a game where they scored 14 points or less, the UNDER is 7-1-1 the following game. Going further in depth and looking at ‘DPS’ with teams ranked in the Top 3, I found a powerful ‘UNDER’ trend that has stood up strong dating back to 2014. ‘DPS’ is ‘delta points scored’ which is the difference between the actual number of points scored by a team in a game and the amount they were projected to score according to the Vegas line.
Example is last week Alabama was -7 and the total was 45. The final score was projected at 26-19. Alabama’s ‘DPS’ was -16. Stay with me here as this brings me to the angle that I am closing with.
Teams ranked in the Top 3 and playing at home and their previous ‘DPS’ was 11 or greater has found the UNDER going 20-5-1 since 2014. I know I got in-depth and complex, but at the end of the day, we should see a lower score than expected.
MMA OddsBreaker
Vicente Luque wins inside the distance
Vicente Luque is fighting on short notice against Belal Muhammad, but Muhammad is a very beatable opponent. In Muhammad's UFC debut, he was dropped three times by Alan Jouban. I think there's a very good chance that happens again, except this time, Luque puts him away instead of allowing him to recover. Muhammad is a high energy fighter who can push the pace, but his defense is highly suspect and Luque packs some serious fight-ending power in his fists. If Luque can connect solidly with anything big, he'll be in a perfect position to not only win the fight, but either knock Muhammad out or potentially jump onto an open submission.
Jim Feist
Miami at Virginia
Pick: Under
Miami's offense has been hit and miss all season, on a 7-2 run under the total after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Miami defense has been strong all year, #28 in the nation in yards allowed, #17 in points (19.9 ppg). They face a one-dimensional Virginia offense with the Cavs 8-3-1 under the total on natural grass. In Virginia's 27-20 loss to Wake Forest, the Cavaliers led 20-17 before junior quarterback Kurt Benkert threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter. The Under is 15-6-1 in the Cavaliers last 22 conference games, plus 19-7 under after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.