DWAYNE BRYANT
AUBURN at GEORGIA
PLAY: GEORGIA +10
It certainly looks like the Tigers will be battling Alabama for the SEC West title in a few weeks. They better not be looking ahead to that game or the Bulldogs will bite them in this one.
Georgia is sitting at 5-4, needing only one more win to become bowl eligible. Hosting Louisiana-Lafayette next pretty much ensures the Bulldogs of collecting that sixth win. I feel confident in saying that Kirby Smart’s bunch would much rather win out and get a more lucrative bowl with an 8-4 record. So, I don’t see Georgia laying down for the Tigers. In fact, being made a home dog despite rarely losing at home should serve as motivation against their conference foe in this one.
Georgia has a pair of talented running backs in Sony Michel and Nick Chubb who got on track last weekend. On the flip side, Auburn’s star running back Kamryn Pettway is questionable after suffering a leg injury late in their last game. Pettway will likely be less than 100% should he be able to suit up for this one. Either way, Auburn will be running at a Georgia defense allowing just 3.1 yards per rush in SEC play this season.
Auburn quarterback Sean White has only thrown nine touchdown passes this season. If Georgia’s solid run defense can slow down the strong Auburn ground game, then the ‘Dogs can hang here. I think they can.
THE PREZ
AUBURN at GEORGIA
PLAY: GEORGIA +10
The red hot Tigers enter Saturday's event against the Bulldogs with some injury concerns. Quarterback Sean White was not the starter in last weekend's 23-16 win over Vanderbilt due to a shoulder injury. The school's athletic department told the media that White is expected to be active and start but this isn't the case for the offense's top tailback and leading rusher Kamryn Pettway. His status remains questionable after suffering a leg injury in the final stanza of Saturday's win over the Commodores.
Auburn coach Gus Malzahn offered little more than a "we will see" when being asked about the availability of Pettway for Saturday's tilt. The Tigers have been exalted and proclaimed Bama's top challenger due to their ability to run the football. Auburn's defense, however, should receive some of the credit for the Tigers second half success this season.
The Bulldogs did just enough to secure victory last week earning a 27-24 win over Kentucky. While few will agree that the 'Dogs were looking past the Wildcats for Saturday's event against rival Auburn it took a time expiring field goal by kicker Rodrigo Blankenship to send Georgia home a winner.
Georgia didn't have an offensive answer two weeks ago for the Florida defense ultimately losing by a 24-10 margin on their home turf. The Gators defense held the Bulldogs to jus 164 yards of total offense. Georgia’s defense, which ranks third in the SEC against the run allowing just over 100 yards per game on the ground, has the personnel to stand tall against the nation’s third-best Auburn rushing attack.
Don't look now but Saturday's SEC headline event has the makings of an upset. Auburn recent rise in the national polls and among SEC proponents is much to do about situation. The Tigers' recent success has come against an a Rebels and Razorback squads that were coming off a stretch of emotional and physical matchups.
Georgia is at home and emotionally ripe to give Auburn all they can handle this Saturday afternoon. The talent, depth and the ability of Georgia versus that of Auburn is being misrepresented in the sports investment market place.
Cal Sports
Pitt at Clemson
Play: Over 65
The Pitt D has yet to stop anyone allowing 31 or more points to each Power-5 team while allowing 550 YPG in their 4 road trips. While the Clemson defense did shutout Syracuse last week when the face a team that can run the ball for at least 4.0 YPC they have allowed 31 PPG in those match-ups. The panthers have rushed for over 4.0 YPC in all but one game versus an FBS foe and in fact have rushed for over 5.0 YPC in all but 2 games versus FBS opponents.
Buster Sports
West Virginia at Texas
Play: Over 64
We are 5-0 in our last 5 college football freeplays and we believe we have found a nice spot to make it 6 straight. We are going OVER the total on the Texas/ West Virginia game. Both these teams seem to have a hard time playing on the road and both teams are very good at home which makes this a good spot for the OVER in this matchup. When playing at home, West Virginia allows an average of 15.8 PPG. Then when West Virginia hits the road they give up 28.7 PPG. The trouble here is in their last game at home West Virginia gave up 21 against a very weak offense in Kansas. Today they face the number 13th ranked offense, that is averaging more than 500 yds a game. What we see here is that this West Virginia defense that played so well in the beginning of the year is starting to fade badly late in the season. Look for Texas to put a bunch of points on the board today on a now suspect West Virginia D. Luckily for West Virginia their offense gets to face one of the worse defenses in college football, the 112th ranked Longhorns. This will be perfect for the number 10 ranked offense of the Mountaineers. This game could easily be the last team with the ball wins.
MIKE ROSE
BAYLOR AT OKLAHOMA
PLAY: BAYLOR +16
The Bears are going to get theirs through the air. OU just allowed the Cyclones to get to their pass D for 160 yards and two touchdowns. That was with Jacob Park leading ISU’s offense. Russell is much better. However, it will all go for naught if Baylor plays the type of run defense that saw TCU go for a near five spins last week. Baylor’s passing attack will only allow it to stick close in this game for so long. The Bears must put forth a much better effort stopping the run if it’s to have any shot.
As bad as the Bears were beaten last week, it comes as no surprise to see everyone on the fade train this week. But just when you count this Baylor team out, they go out and bite ya. Better than 80 percent of the tickets written are backing the home team in this matchup. That my friends is absurd!
Before falling by 10 at home in last year’s meeting, Baylor went a perfect 4-0 ATS and won three of these conference rival’s previous four meetings. The road team has covered 13 of the last 16 between these teams, and the Bears have covered 18 of their last 26 versus +.500 opposition. Oklahoma’s just 3-6 versus the number to date. I don’t trust them laying this number, and it would be so Boomer Sooner to drop this one outright!
OSKEIM SPORTS
KENTUCKY AT TENNESSEE
Play: KENTUCKY +13
Distractions abound for the Volunteers after lead running back Jalen Hurd announced shortly after the team's loss to South Carolina that he was transferring from Tennessee. Hurd rushed for 2,638 yards in his three-year collegiate career in Knoxville, including running for a team-high 451 yards this season. He also accounted for 26 total touchdowns (20 rushing, 6 receiving) and has been replaced by John Kelly, who made his first career start against Tennessee Tech last week and rushed for 104 yards.
Meanwhile, Tennessee All-American kick returner Evan Berry will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Berry led the SEC and ranked second in the nation with a kickoff return average of 32.9 yards per return. The junior led the nation as a sophomore with an average of 39.3 yards per kickoff return.
Tennessee is just 0.4 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage this season (0.3 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.1 yards per play better than average defensively). The Wildcats are also 0.4 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage, rating 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.1 yards per play worse than average defensively.
The concern for Kentucky backers is the fact that the Wildcats have underperformed away from home this season. Kentucky is averaging just 16.0 points and 297 total yards per game at 4.7 yards per play on the road, but it's important to note that two of those games were on the road against Florida and Alabama. Defensively, the Wildcats are allowing 33.3 points and 479 total yards per game at 6.3 yards per play on the road but, again, those numbers need to be viewed in the context of Kentucky's opposition.
Here's the best news for Kentucky investors - the Wildcats are averaging 33.0 points and 481 total yards at 6.5 yards per play in their last three games, two of which resulted in upset wins over Mississippi State (40-38) and Missouri (35-21). On the other hand, Tennessee's stop unit has been gashed in conference play, allowing 35.4 points and 461 total yards per game at 6.2 yards per play.
From a technical standpoint, Tennessee is a money-burning 2-9 ATS in its last eleven games following a win by 20+ points, 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring 40+ points and 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 home games versus teams with a winning road record. The Wildcats remain undervalued by the betting market, posting a 5-1 ATS in their last six games. The main reason for not making the Wildcats a Best Bet is the fact that Tennessee is 23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS in this series, including 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS at home.
That series' domination alone is enough for me to temper my enthusiasm for the Wildcats, who are one win away from becoming bowl eligible (and most likely saving head coach Mark Stoops' job). However, the math supports Kentucky and these teams have been trending in opposite directions for several weeks.
Scott Rickenbach
South Carolina vs. Florida
Play: Florida -10½
This line opened up at a 14.5 and has dropped all the way to as low as a 10 on Florida. The lower point spread range has opened up some nice line value here on the home fave. With former Gators head coach Will Muschamp returning to the campus of the university that fired him he certainly would love to get a W on Saturday. However, remember that he lost by double digits to Florida in last season's meeting and that was in South Carolina. There are still plenty of players on the Gators roster with ties to Muschamp and they are fired up for another big win here like they delivered last season versus the Gamecocks. Even though South Carolina's QB Jake Bentley has been playing well, the freshman QB has faced a weak pass defense in the form of UMass and then banged up defenses in the form of Tennessee and Missouri in recent weeks. Now he faces one of the top defensive units in the country and Bentley is going to be frazzled early and often in this match-up. This is his first career road start. In fact, this is South Carolina's first road game in 7 weeks and the long homestand has them over-valued right now. Conversely, the Gators are playing their first true home game since hosting Missouri in mid-October. Look for Florida to make the most of it. The Gators are ready to respond after getting blasted 31-10 at Arkansas last week. Note that Florida is 5-1 ATS when off of a straight-up loss by double digits. South Carolina is 3-10 SU (and 5-8 ATS) in their last 13 road games.
Kyle Hunter
Texas-San Antonio vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: Texas-San Antonio +22
The Louisiana Tech offense has been great this year. LA Tech has been covering big numbers of late, and the oddsmakers have had to respond. Here is finally the point where I believe the Bulldogs have gotten overvalued.
UTSA has been good of late. They won at MTSU last week. Yes, MTSU's star quarterback was hurt in that game, but LA Tech was winning 21-7 when he went down as well. The UTSA defense is playing well of late, and they are stronger in the secondary than most teams inside Conference USA.
Louisiana Tech is a good team, but I don't think they should be laying north of 3 touchdowns against an up and coming team like UTSA. The Bulldogs haven't had a bye week all season thus far, and they finally have one next weekend. Here is the perfect spot for them to coast into the bye week with a 14-17 point win. Take UTSA and the points.
Dave Price
South Florida vs. Memphis
Play: South Florida -3
The South Florida Bulls are in primed for a big performance against Memphis this week. With a win Saturday, they would move into a first-place tie with Temple in the AAC East standings. Memphis has no chance to win the AAC West, so the motivational angle is clearly in the Bulls' favor. And the Bulls want revenge from a 24-17 loss to Memphis last season. South Florida is fresh off its bye week, so it has a big advantage in rest and preparation as well. Memphis has been wildly inconsistent of late. They had gone 0-5 ATS in their previous five games before a 51-7 win at SMU last week. They lost by 29 to Tulsa at home the week before. And that was a very misleading final against SMU as the Tigers got several huge plays on special teams and off of turnovers. USF has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, averaging 43.4 points and 503 yards per game. I think it will score at will against a Memphis defense that gave up 42 points to Navy and 59 to Tulsa in two of its past three games. The Bulls are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Jack Jones
Wyoming -7½
Craig Bohl is proving that he can be a great coach at the FBS level, too. Bohl previously won championships for FCS power North Dakota State, and now he's looking to bring a Mountain West title to Wyoming in just his third season on the job. The Cowboys are in prime position to do it.
Wyoming is 7-2 on the season, including a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in Mountain West play while outscoring opponents by an average of 12.8 points per game. The Cowboys won 38-17 at Colorado State, 35-26 at home against Air Force, 42-34 at Nevada, 52-28 against Utah State and 30-28 as 14.5-point home dogs to Boise State.
The Cowboys need to win two of their final three games to win the Mountain Division title, which would likely set up a meeting with San Diego State. And they still play SDSU in the regular season, so there is a good chance they lose that game, meaning that this contest against UNLV becomes pretty critical if they want to play for a conference title.
I just haven't seen anything from UNLV that would make me believe they can hang with one of the top teams in the conference in Wyoming. Their offense has been a disaster since losing their starting QB and several of their top receivers. They sit at just 3-6 on the season with upset losses to the likes of Idaho and San Jose State along the way. They really don't have much to play for at this point as they still have a road game at Boise State next week looming, so they aren't going to a bowl game.
These teams have just one common opponent this season, and that is Colorado State. UNLV lost at home to Colorado State 23-42 on October 22nd, while Wyoming won on the road at Colorado State 38-17 on October 1st. That result alone tells you a lot about how much better the Cowboys are than the Rebels this season.
The Cowboys likely have two future NFL players at QB and RB in Josh Allen and Brian Hill, respectively. Allen has thrown 17 touchdowns against 8 interceptions while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, and he's also rushed for 397 yards and six scores. Hill has rushed for 1,298 yards and 12 touchdowns on 5.7 per carry.
Both teams love to run the football as Wyoming averages 47 attempts for 230 yards per game, while UNLV averages 42 attempts for 236 yards per game. So the key will be stopping the run. Well, Wyoming is holding opponents to 43 yards per game less than their season averages on the ground, while UNLV is giving up 17 more rushing yards per game than their opponents average on the season.
Wyoming allows 139 rushing yards per game against teams who average 182, while UNLV allows 167 rushing yards per game against teams that average 150. The one weakness for Wyoming is its pass defense, but that's not an issue in this matchup considering UNLV is completing just 45.2% of its passes for 163 yards per game this season.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WYOMING) - after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-3 (89.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Wyoming racked up 538 yards of offense in a 35-28 home win over UNLV last season as 2-point dogs. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Wyoming is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference games. The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. UNLV is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Alex Smart
LSU vs. Arkansas
Play: Under 46
Coming off a bye week, the Razorbacks put forth their most impressive effort of the season in a 31-10 smack down of Florida last week. The Arkansas defense, which looked like it was asleep at the proverbial wheel the previous week in a 56-3 loss to Auburn, was over powering against the Gators, allowing just 12 rushing yards. Coach Brett Bielema used the extra time to revamp his starting 11 on the defensive side of the ball, and it looks like it worked wonders. Meanwhile, LSU lost a hard fought 10-0 decision to Alabama, but once again showcased a D, that is on par with the best of the SEC. With that said, look for a game that features alot of clock moving old fashioned grinding football.
LSU is 8-0 UNDER in all games this season. Orgeron is 16-6 UNDER L/22 after playing a game at home in all games he has coached.
All CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 like the Razorbacks - average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) against a team with a good rushing defense (100-140 RY/game), after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game have gone under 30 of 36 times in the following game.
Big Al
Buffalo vs. New Jersey
Pick: New Jersey
Tonight it will be the back end of a home-and-home series which saw the Devils travel to upstate New York last night and beat the Sabres in overtime in a very close contest. They should be able to complete the sweep tonight at Prudential Center where they have yet to lose in regulation this season (5-0-1). That lone OT loss was against a very good Blackhawks team back on October 28. Despite the fact that Buffalo has played better on the road this season than they have at home, the Sabres are a very banged up team right now with no fewer than six regulars either out indefinitely, on the I-R, or questionable for this game. The Devils had some pretty solid defense and goaltending last season, allowing just 2.46 goals per game, while their offense was the worst in the NHL at 2.22 GPG. It's early still, but the Devils have somewhat reversed those numbers so far in 2016-2017, scoring at a 2.33 clip while allowing a very stingy 2.25 goals per contest (fifth-best in the league). With the OT loss on Friday, the Sabres are now 1-5 in the last six meetings.
Larry Ness
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State was shocked in its second game of the season, losing 30-27 at home to Central Michigan. However, the Cowboys have regrouped and enter this contest 7-2 overall, with their only other loss coming 35-24 back on September 24 at then-No. 16 Baylor. Oklahoma St is No. 17 in the latest CFP ranking and checks in at 5-1 in the Big 12 as it gets set to host Texas Tech. If the Cowboys can win their next two games, their season-ending trip to Oklahoma (“Bedlam”) will likely decide the Big 12 title. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has lost four of its last five and at 4-5 (2-4 in Big 12 play) will need to win at least two of its remaining three games to just qualify for a bowl bid (Kingsbury’s seat is getter ‘hotter’ by the week).
QB Patrick Mahomes II (66.8% for 3,886 yards with 31 TDs and eight INTs) and the Red Raiders' high-flying offense lead the country in passing yards (458.1 per game) and rank fourth in scoring at 46.2 PPG, despite a non-existent rushing threat (TT averages 104.1 YPG on the ground to rank 122nd of 128 FBS schools). However, the Texas Tech defense is a sieve, allowing 41.8 PPG (124th) on 533.9 YPG (126th).
Oklahoma St has won five straight since falling to Baylor, averaging 42.2 PPG and just 0.8 turnovers per game in that span. Mason Rudolph (64.8% for 2,989 yards with 22 TDs and four INTs) is second in the league in passing (342.4 YPG also ranks 6th in the nation!) and has two of the league's leading receivers. James Washington (50 catches, 974 yards, eight TDs) and Jalen McCleskey (57 catches, 670 yards, six TDs) rank third and eighth, respectively, in yards per game. The OSU defense is not great (ranks 68th in points allows at 27.2 PPG) but that’s more than two TDs per game less than the Texas Tech defense allows.
Oklahoma State has scored at least 20 points in 25 straight games, the second-longest active streak in the nation behind Oregon (39). That streak will surely not end here against Texas Tech, a team which over the last two seasons, has lost four times when scoring 50 points or more (55, 59, 52 & 53, to be exact), because of its porous defense. The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in turnover margin (plus-8 ), after forcing 11 TOs during the win streak, which is another good sign. Oklahoma State has won seven in a row against Texas Tech, the past six by double digits and I say make it EIGHT in a row for the Cowboys “with room to spare!”
Ross Benjamin
Charlotte -10.5
This game qualifies as a college football betting angle which hasn’t only been highly successful for the past 34 seasons, but it’s also a perfect 3-0 ATS this year. Charlotte is coming off a 38-27 win at Southern Mississippi last Saturday, and did so as a sizable 17.0-point road underdog.
Any home favorite of 10.0 or more (Charlotte), coming off an away underdog of 10.0 or more straight up win in which they scored 35 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going an outstanding 31-8 ATS (79.5%) since 1983.
Ian Cameron
South Florida at Memphis
Play: Over 73.5
South Florida’s up-tempo offensive attack is poised to have success against Memphis on Saturday. The Bulls have yet to be held below 30 points in a game this season. They rank tops in AAC play at nearly 7 yards per play and over 500 ypg. Quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack anchor what has been a very balanced attack. Of USF's nine games, they've rushed for 200+ eight times and passed for 200+ seven times. That is bad news for a Memphis defense that has struggled against better competition. In games against Tulsa, Navy, Temple, and Ole Miss, Memphis allowed 44 ppg. And against the run (USF's best attribute) Memphis checks in a dead last in AAC play at 232.8 ypg allowed. On the flip side, Memphis' offense should have no trouble moving the football either. They've hung 34, 24, 28, 30 and 51 points in their last five games. And South Florida’s defense has shown cracks in the armor of late surrendering 91 combined points and 1,147 total yards against Temple and Navy in back-to-back games. In terms of pace, both teams rank inside the top 20 nationally in terms of time between plays. And while the total may seem high in the low 70's, it's still a very reachable number given the makeup and current form of both squads.