Andrew Lange
Michigan / Iowa 1st Half Over 27.5
The Michigan first half over train continues as last week the Wolverines jumped out to a 35-0 half time lead over Maryland. And it's not just first halves as Michigan is also 7-2 O/U from a full game perspective. And if you're worried Jim Harbaugh may let off the pedal at some point, don't. In the win over the Terps, UM scored two fourth quarter touchdowns; the last of which via the pass with three minutes remaining. This week's opponent, Iowa, serves as yet another opportunity to step on a neck.
Iowa's schedule has been laughable in terms of opposing offenses. Miami-Ohio, Rutgers, and Wisconsin all rank 101st or worse in total offense. Iowa State, Minnesota, and Northwestern check in at 89th, 83rd, and 96th respectively. The two "top" offenses the Hawkeyes faced were Purdue (58th) and Penn State (59th). And in those two games, Iowa allowed 76 points and 7.3 yards per play. Michigan of course is significantly better offensively that those aforementioned teams. The Wolverines are averaging 6.74 yards per play. Take away their slobberknocker against a stout Wisky defense and that number jumps to over 7 yards per play.
You also have to question to level of effort from Iowa moving forward. After a 5-2 start, the Hawkeyes were dismantled by Wisconsin and Penn State. The score against the Badgers (17-9) looks respectable but Iowa was outgained 423-236 (3.9-5.79 ypp). And the score and box score of the Penn State game was ugly: 41-14 loss, outgained 599-234.
The concern here is obviously Iowa's anemic offense though Michigan has gone over the total both first half and full game a number of times without the help of the opposing offense. Still, you'd like to see the Hawkeyes punch in a score. I would expect them to pull out all the stops including some new plays/looks knowing that attacking Michigan's defense in a traditional manner simply won't work.
Otto Sports
Vanderbilt at Missouri
Play: Over 52.5
Prior to last week, South Carolina had yet to post 400+ yards of total offense in a game. They racked up 428 yards and 31 points against Missouri which marked yet another team that had little difficulty moving the football against the Tigers' stop unit. Over its last five games, Mizzou has allowed 42, 40, 51, 35, and 31 points. Four of those opponents were from the SEC (LSU, Florida, Kentucky, and South Carolina) and all of them rank in the bottom half the league in total offense. All of the top offenses in the SEC reside in the West Division and Missouri has played only LSU, arguably the weakest of the bunch. The Bayou Bengals rolled up 634 yards en route to a 42-7 win.
Vanderbilt, however, ranks dead last in the SEC at 311.9 ypg. In six games against power conference teams, the Commodores have yet to top 17 points. Even against the likes of MTSU and Western Kentucky, Vandy failed to top 400 yards though was handed a number of short fields thanks to five forced turnovers.
Vanderbilt's defense has held up for most of the season, particularly in the red zone. The Commodores allowed around 27 ppg worth of yardage over their last three games but actually allowed only 18.6 ppg thanks to three touchdowns vs. four field goals. I'm not sure if that bend-but-don't-break philosophy will continue to hold up. And while far from perfect, Missouri has moved the ball in nearly every game with the exception of games against upper-tier defenses West Virginia, LSU, and Florida.
With four wins, Vanderbilt is still technically live for the postseason but the reality is, this game should have a loose feel to it. I agree with the early move towards the over.
Harry Bondi
TEXAS TECH +13 over Oklahoma State
In a game where the underdog could literally score on every possession, we’ll grab the two TD head start with the Red Raiders. Texas Tech lost straight-up and against the spread last week to Texas, but that puts them in a profitable situation here today as they have covered 10 of their last 15 games off a conference loss and an even more impressive 50-36 (58%) dating back to 1992. What’s more, Oklahoma State has covered just two of its last eight chances as a double-digit home chalk. In a game that will likely come down to whichever team has the ball last, we’ll take the points!
David Banks
Michigan -21.5
Fresh off a 59-3 win over Maryland, Michigan gets to travel to Iowa and take on the 5-4 Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. The Wolverines will dress in the famed pink locker rooms that will likely not have the effect that Iowa would like. Michigan is certainly the Big Ten’s best defense and possibly the nation’s. The Wolverines give up an average of just 10.7 points per game. That is tops in the country. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s defense has held six of nine opponents to 10 points or less.
Iowa brings the type of offense that might give Michigan some trouble, but the Hawkeyes have been beaten up in consecutive weeks by ranked opponents. Tenth-ranked Wisconsin beat Iowa 17-9 and then No. 12 Penn State put a hurting on the Hawkeyes in a 41-14 defeat. As if taking on the No. 3 team in the country isn’t enough, Iowa finishes the season against ranked Nebraska on Nov. 25.
Iowa is just mediocre all the way around. Quarterback C.J. Beathard leads the offense with 1,584 yards passing and 13 touchdowns. Akrum Wadley is the leading rusher (664 yards, 8 TDs) and WR Riley McCarron leads the team in receiving yards with 378. On the other side of the ball, Michigan is also one of the nation’s best offenses. The Wolverines average nearly 48 points a game, third-best in the country. Four running backs – De’Veon Smith, Chris Evans, Karan Higdon, and Ty Isaac – have rushed for at least 400 yards. Quarterback Wilson Speight is extremely efficient. He is completing 64.5 percent of his passes and has 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
Nelly
Minnesota at Nebraska
Play: Minnesota +7
While most assume Wisconsin will win the Big Ten West the winner of this game will still have shot. Nebraska no longer controls their path with a blowout loss at Ohio State last week on the heels of the epic overtime game with Wisconsin. Tommy Armstrong had a scary injury last week which certainly had an impact in the 62-3 result and his status is unknown at this point though he appears on pace to be cleared in the concussion protocol. Minnesota doesn’t have much in terms of quality wins on the resume but the three-point loss at Penn State in a game Minnesota led most of the way is looking more impressive. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings in this series including winning in Lincoln in 2015 and only once all season have the Gophers been out-gained on the ground. The defensive numbers heavily favor the Gophers and quality wins are certainly absent for Nebraska as well despite their higher rating. A Minnesota run defense allowing just 3.3 yards per rush along with a pass defense allowing only 54 percent completions should keep the Gophers in this game. The three games in which Nebraska has been out-rushed were both losses and the miraculous home win over Oregon while Minnesota has out-rushed eight of nine foes on the season making for a very attractive heavy underdog with the Gophers 10-2 the last 12 instances as a road underdog and Nebraska on a 3-8-1 ATS home favorite run.
Brad Wilton
Clemson had little trouble brushing aside Syracuse last weekend at home, 54-0, but quarterback Deshaun Watson did exit the game with a shoulder injury. Watson is fine, but he may still be a little sore, so I am thinking that this is the week the points are wise to take with the underdog Pittsburgh Panthers.
The Tigers do have a pair of "easy" games against Wake Forest and South Carolina left on their regular season schedule, so it would not be a surprise to see Dabo ease his foot off the pedal today and until the ACC Title Game.
The Panthers leaky defense likely prevents the outright stunner of an upset, but Pitt has covered 5 of their last 8 as the road dog under Coach Narduzzi, while even with last week's cover over the Orange, Clemson is just 2-4-1 against the spread their last 7 at home, and a not-much-better 6-9-1 against the spread when listed as the double-digit chalk.
Pittsburgh has followed their back-and-forth home loss to Virginia Tech with an ugly loss at Miami-Florida last weekend. I am sure at 5-4 they are itching to show they can play with the "big boys".
Take the points in this one as Pitt keeps it closer than expected.
4* PITTSBURGH
Brad Wilton
Louisiana Tech is humming along after a 1-3 start, as Skip Holtz' team enters play on Saturday with 6 straight wins, and 5 straight covers.
That fact has jacked-up the price in this game against the visiting UTSA Roadrunner just a few points too many in my opinion. UTSA is on a nice run of their own, winning their last pair and 4 of their last 5, with the lone loss in that stretch coming in 5 overtimes!
The Roadrunners have covered 3 of their last 4 as the underdog, and they have been a thorn in the Bulldogs side in recent meetings, covering in each of the last 4 series meetings, while pulling one outright upset win.
La Tech does have a big revenge game on tap next weekend against Southern Miss, so a Bulldogs win, but a Roadrunners cover is something that I can totally see materializing.
Take UTSA for your Saturday comp play winner.
2* UTSA
Chris Jordan
My free winner comes from college football's late card, as I delve into this Pac 12 matchup between the Washington Huskies and USC Trojans.
Of course, I am laying the points with Dub, as I don't think the Trojans can match wits with a team vying for the final four, and that needs to win in dominating fashion.
Receivers John Ross and receiver Dante Pettis are going to exploit USC's secondary, with their blistering run-after-catch explosiveness. They help in making quarterback Jake Browning look good. The duo has they has hauled in 25 touchdown passes. They're a big reason why Browning has a passer rating of 202.8, and is on pace to break Russell Wilson's D-I record.
USC will be hanging around, but it's not going to be there in the second half. The Huskies will pull away, early in the third quarter, while the raucous crowd will provide the 12th man in Seattle. Add in turnovers and penalities, and it's easy to see how Washington wins big.
Lay the home chalk.
1* WASHINGTON
Brett Atkins
With Josh Rosen out for the UCLA Bruins, it's doubtful to me they can extend the margin against dog-loving Oregon State on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl.
UCLA is on a 4 game losing streak heading into this game, and with just 2 covers in their last 11 games played at home, perhaps laying the double-digits isn't the wisest of moves.
Oregon State doesn't own the straight up wins, but Gary Andersen's Beavers have gnawed away with 5 straight conference covers - all as the underdog!
The Beavs are also 4-1 against the spread their last 5 road games, and the road team in this series is 6-1 against the spread the last 7 series meetings.
UCLA may end their straight up skid, but want no parts of laying the lumber in this contest.
Take sign is on with State.
3* OREGON STATE
Bob Valentino
In arguably one of the biggest matchups today, I'm playing the Texas Longhorns for my free play, as I think they're going to annihilate the West Virginia Mountaineers, as the two meet in Big 12 action.
I think the Horns are in a good spot to win their fifth game in a row, against a Top 12 opponent. Texas is still undefeated at home after knocking off Baylor a couple weeks back, and is in a good position to give West Virginia fits.
I'm going to be looking for the defense to do its job today, and will couple that with running back D'Onta Foreman, the nation's leading rusher at 180.8 yards per game. By Foreman grinding out yardage, and the defense keeping West Virginia off the field, we're going to see the Longhorns control the tempo.
This is West Virginia's toughest remaining road test, and I don't think it passes. Take the home team.
3* TEXAS
Eric Schroeder
I haven't seen a line on BYU-Southern Utah, as of 5:30 a.m. pacific, but I don't care. I'm guessing this line will be around -30, maybe slightly higher. The Cougars are going to steamroll Southern Utah.
I never understood why teams in bigger conferences played out of conference this late in the season, but now you're talking a mid-mid-major taking on one of the biggest programs in the nation.
BYU may not be a national powerhouse like it was in the past, but you best believe this is a team that is not going to let little ol' Southern Utah from Cedar City threaten it. This game could make BYU bowl eligible, which is something to say after the Cougars had a 1-3 mark to start the season.
BYU has won four of its last five games, and needs one win to become bowl eligible for the 12th consecutive season.
I like the Cougars' chances to win this game by some ludicrous finals, one of those typical lopsided losses in college football. BYU wins this by 49.
2* BYU
Chris Jordan
My free winner in college basketball is going to be the Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points, as they open their season with consecutive home games for the first time since the 2011-12 season. And in the season-opener, it will be Nebraska-Omaha.
I was encouraged by some video clips I watched, and other things I've read, about this team, which debuted on Nov. 6 with an 82-62 exhibition victory over visiting Fresno Pacific. Santa Barbara never trailed the Sunbirds and led by as many as 27 points.
I'm excited about point guard Eric Childress and the supporting cast he'll be dishing too, including Gabe Vincent, Ami Lakoju and Jalen Canty. The first three are returners, while Canty made his debut with the team by hitting 8-of-10 field goals attempts, finishing with 17 points, seven rebounds and a pair of blocked shots in 18 minutes in the exhibition.
UCSB began last season by losing five of its first seven games at the Thunderdome, and has vowed not to duplicate that this season. Having momentum out of its own arena is the goal.
I'm taking the home team in this one.
3* SANTA BARBARA
RAY MONOHAN
California / Washington St Over 83
Offense should be a plenty here when California and Washington State meet on Saturday. Both teams love to whip the ball all over the field and will certainly take their fair share of shots down field.
The Golden Bears are putting up 40 points per game behind QB Davis Webb and what is a very impressive offense. The Golden Bears use plenty of pace as well, which is something to keep note of here as that certainly helps the cause for the Over. Defensively, things have been atrocious for Cal. They're conceding 44.4 points per game and it seems a lot worse than that even.
For the Cougars, Washington State is putting up 43.0 points per game and even sees that number fly up at home where they average 49.0 points per game. They're much better defensively than California, but they're still vulnerable to the deep ball.
Some trends to note.Over is 11-3 in Cougars last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Over is 9-2 in Golden Bears last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Expect a lot of scores and a little defense here in this one.
TONY KARPINSKI
Penn State vs. Indiana
Play: Penn State -7
Your FREE action of the day goes early with Penn State as they have been red hot with 5 straight wins and their defense has been playing very much improved since their loss at Michigan back on Sept 24 - holding opponents to a shade under 20 at 19.8
Sophomore QB Trace McSorley may not be the best QB in the country - or even the conference - but he may be the next best thing the Lions could've hoped for. With only a 55% completion rate, McSorley has been keeping teams slow to react with his footwork over the year and his 56 carries over the last 4 games has been eye opening.
Saquon Barkley is going to make a serious impact in the Lions backfield, he will hammer that defense front, wearing them down - he has been slamming against the defensive fronts all season and has 11 TDs to show for it - including two 200+ yard rushing games in the last 4 games. He has been a BEAST!
WR Chris Godwin will also be extremely valuable in the passing game, Godwin has shown some really excellent concentration especially in his up field routes - McSorley will fire the ball and connect all day vs a pass coverage that gave up 258 to another low completion passer, Rutgers QB, Giovanni Rescigno.
There are a lot of troubling signs for the signs for the Hoosiers, most importantly their porous defense - having given up nearly 27ppg.
Indiana has also had a tendency to be behind in the turnover margin and have played sloppily throughout the season. Coming off a 4 turnover game vs Rutgers - where they were lucky to escape with a 33-27 win. 2 weeks ago before that - they got blown out from the get go vs Northwestern - where they also had 2 more turnovers - causing none.
Lastly, the Nittany Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games and I like them by double digits on Saturday.
JOE D'AMICO
Colorado State vs. Air Force
Play: Colorado State +6
Air Force has 3 Conference losses and has covered just 1 game over their L5 outings while Colorado State has covered their L4 straight since bringing back QB, Stevens. The Rams need 1 more victory for bowl eligibility. There is no HF advantage for the Falcons as this meeting is in Colorado Springs, about a 20 minute ride for the Rams. Colorado State is in a great spot here as they catch Air Force coming off of their annual showdown with Army. CSU is quite familiar with the option brings in a very well-balanced "O" themselves. The Rams are 4-0 ATS their L4 Conference games, 5-2 ATS their L7 games played on the road, and 8-2 ATS their L10 games played in the month of November.