SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA +16 over Colorado
Arizona is 1-8 against the spread and has lost six straight by ever-increasing margins. The last time we saw the Wildcats was in Washington last week where they suffered a 69-7 humiliation. We can assure you that result has heavy influence on this week’s market. It is so damn hard to pull the trigger on this 2-7 host after that loss last week but football, especially college, is all about picking the right spots and this one sets up perfectly to fade the Buffalos.
This now becomes a spot where we'll have the home dog or nothing. The Buffs are coming off an emotionally charged win over UCLA, and are staring at league contenders #25 Washington State and #15 Utah in the season's final two weeks. It will be near impossible for Colorado to watch film of Arizona's past two outings and feel threatened, yet Rich Rodriguez' teams have averaged 44 points, 590 total yards and 355 rushing yards against Colorado the past four meetings, all Arizona wins. The number has finally caught up with Ralphie and we'll credit Richrod's team with enough pride to bounce back and make a better showing this week in front of the home crowd in what -- despite the Buffaloes' gaudy record -- has to feel to the Cats' players and coaches like their most winnable game in more than a month. You rarely, if ever, should sell a major conference squad after getting humiliated the week prior. For the Buffs, this game is sandwiched between UCLA last week and Washington and Utah on deck. In other words, it’s the worst possible time to buy the Buffs and if you are buying, you would be doing so at an inflated price. No thanks to that.
Iowa +21 over MICHIGAN
This game has all the markings of a snare for the Wolverines. Michigan has been absolutely dominating in their Big 10 slate so far. In fairness, the Wolverines have been regal over the span of the entire season. The Wolverines have won every game they have been involved in by 10 points or more outside of their 14-7 scrap against a top-10 ranked Wisconsin at home and a 32-23 victory on the road against their arch rival, Michigan State. As a result of Michigan’s success and their pedigree in itself, the Maize and Blue have been spotting some significantly lofty point totals to whoever dare oppose them. While Michigan enters at 9-0 on the year, they are just 5-4 against the spread. We have seen Michigan spot the likes of 36 to 38 points against puny cupcakes they teed off on to begin their 2016-17 campaign, which accounted for several of its five against the spread victories. Outside of their sacks of UCF and Hawaii, the Wolverines are just 3-4 ATS against Power 5 opponents. There is no question that there is a premium to pay to back the Wolverines, especially in a prime time game on a Saturday night at the Big House.
Iowa is an entirely different animal and they’re not Maryland, Hawaii or UCF. Though the Hawkeyes come in at 5-4 on the year, they could have easily won three of the four games they lost. Most recently, Iowa was pummeled on the road at Penn State and it would appear that the market is putting more emphasis on that loss than Iowa’s other contests. Iowa lost three games at home this year but by a combined margin of just 17 points. The list of successful combatants that dare enter Kinnick Stadium and leave with a win were North Dakota State (an undervalued three-time defending FCS Champion), Northwestern (a team that took Ohio State to the wire on the road last Saturday) and Wisconsin, the same team Michigan struggled against at home who remains a top-10 ranked outfit. Iowa has won four of the last five meetings between these two so they are by no means going to enter this contest with any form of trepidation. The Wolverines are now laying three TD’s (inflated points) to a rival that knows then well and that's the signal to move in this week. The lackluster performance by Iowa against Penn State in an obvious sandwich spot is not a big red flag. The Hawkeyes have holes for sure and they’re not ready to beat the class of the Big-10, but this is a talented, well-led team and a program that you simply cannot lay 21½ points to and expect to cash your ticket.
Baylor +17½ over OKLAHOMA
We are going to continue our assault on Oklahoma, as the Baylor-Oklahoma feud has been one of the fiercest slobberknockers in the past six years of Big 12 football. It would be old news to proclaim that Baylor is no longer the laughing stock of the Big 12, but it is not safe to assume that Oklahoma are the big dogs in this yard anymore either. Yet, this market implies that Baylor cannot compete with the Sooners but we’re not so sure about that. Besides, the dog in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five fixtures with the road team emerging victorious in the last two matches between the parties.
Oklahoma enters off a 34-24 victory against Iowa State in Ames, a game where Oklahoma had to fight from gate-to-wire against a pesky foe in the Cyclones, who simply would not go away. Oklahoma’s defense allowed the Cyclones to hang around and their propensity for being overvalued as a Big 12 favorite had an influential role in the price not equating to expectation in the market. Such is to be expected with the Sooners, as this is the same team that required juice as a pre-season play for the conference hardware. Although Oklahoma has failed to cover for the sixth time this year, the market is still in love with spotting points with this team, as they are getting ever so closer to capturing a Big 12 title with each game they win.
Conversely, Baylor has now lost their two matches within the conference and the most recent defeat by the Bears was all the more harrowing, as they were spanked by TCU in Fort Worth by a score of 62-22. That loss has heavy influence on the number this week. Oklahoma is giving away over two touchdowns to an outfit that knpws them well and that boasts one of the best offenses in America over the past five years while Oklahoma never seems to put their stamp on a season. Among Oklahoma's lapses are an ongoing struggle to establish a clear offensive identity and a penchant for self-inflicted wounds and curious lapses. This is a classic case of buy-low, sell-high, which is precisely what we are going to do.
App State +100 over TROY
There could not be a better time to take Appalachian State. App State has resumed business as usual by winning six straight after losing to Miami and Tennessee earlier in the year. App State went into those aforementioned games knowing full well they were going against ranked Power Five Conference opponents and they certainly took it to Tennessee in September regardless. The Mountaineers could have easily defeated Tennessee at Rocky Top had misfortune not come their way at the most critical times. The Mountaineers entered as a three-possession pooch and although the Vols won, overtime was required to dispatch this formidable foe. At home against Miami, App State was embarrassed by a then undefeated Miami Hurricanes. Given the state of Miami at the current time combined with the narrative that the Mountaineers had since won six a row in convincing fashion, who’s to say the same result would have been fostered now if the two teams met again in Boone? Perhaps more important than the result was the respect given to the Mountaineers by the oddsmakers and market, as they entered the game as a mere 3½-point dog.
This one opened as a pick-em but Troy’s 4-0 record at home is likely the selling point for the Trojans. We are instant sellers, as Troy has not beaten anyone as good as App State, a team that won 11 games last year and has returned a dynamic duo of skilled players in their backfield that have since catalyzed this offense to eclipse 35 points in their last three games. For argument sake, the Trojans have dismissed UMass, New Mexico State, Georgia Southern and Austin Peay in Troy. Combined, that quartet has six wins and 30 losses. Troy’s sole defeat was a six-point loss at Clemson. This combined with a stunning win over a Southern Miss team who has turned out to be a Paper Tiger this year have captivated the market and while Troy may certainly make this a four quarter game, this situation is academic for the Mountaineers.
Appalachian State is not your typical mid-major club. The Mountaineers expect to win and they expect to win often. Against fellow mid-major opponents, the expectation of victory is that much more resounding. Look for the Mountaineers to make an example of Troy, as they will undoubtedly strive to hit 10 wins again this year and aim to remain undefeated in conference play, continuing their march toward the Sun Belt title. This is billed as a fair fight when it is not. There is also a price to pay for a weak schedule and the Trojans will likely pay those dues here.
Nelly
Charlotte - over Rice
The 49ers have turned their season around with three consecutive road wins to reach 4-5, coming off an impressive win at Southern Miss last week. Charlotte isn't accustomed to being favored and the 49ers have lost all three home games vs. FBS foes this season. Rice is having a miserable season with only a FBS win to its credit and huge numbers allowed against marginal competition in the past three games. Last week's home game should have been the best opportunity for the Owls to pick up a win and Rice lost by 17 at home against a FAU team that had lost 7 in a row. In four road games this season Rice has been out-gained by a combined total of 1,272 yards and Charlotte has out-rushed seven of its last eight foes now playing as a team with real confidence and legitimate motivation for the first time in the FBS era for the program. This is a rare price for Charlotte but Rice is just 19-27 ATS as a road underdog since 2007 and the Owls look like a defeated team that looks certain to allow big numbers this week.
Bob Balfe
Navy -3
The only way you stop Navy is by having a good defense with smart players that understand how the option works. Tulsa doesn’t have a clue. Navy plays very tough at home and the only way to beat them is to slow down what they do best. That will not happen today.
Wunderdog
San Antonio @ Houston
Pick: San Antonio -105
The San Antonio Spurs have come out of the Tim Duncan era and into the Kawhi Leonard era. Leonard is leading the Spurs in scoring at 26.2 points per game, but he is so much more than that stuffing the stat column with rebounding, assists, and steals, and playing solid defensively. The Spurs remain a deep and talented team, with nine players scoring five points or more per contest. They have long been able to win on the road in tough buildings, and that has been key to their success. This year San Antonio is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road as they head to Houston. The Spurs lost by two points in San Antonio to the Rockets just three days ago, so they will be on a mission tonight. The Rockets are coming off a stretch of having played seven of their last eight on the road, including their last five, and this is a tired team right now. Coach Popovich has his teams at 67-36 ATS when revenging a loss as a seven point favorite or more, so expect the Spurs to be bringing it tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Jose -108 over TAMPA BAY
Regulation only. This regulation wager is available at Pinnacle and 5Dimes, whereas a tie after regulation will result in a push. If you do not have that option, betting Tampa Bay is still recommended. We play it this way because if OT and shootouts are a 50/50 proposition, then spotting juice in extra time would therefore be a losing proposition over time.
Getting the Bolts at home in an evenly priced game may appear appealing but it is not. The Bolts are highly regarded as one of the teams to beat in the East but unless something changes in a real hurry, they are a first round exit waiting to happen. Tampa’s defense is the problem here. Only three teams have more defensive zone faceoffs than the Bolts. They rank 19th in Corsi against and that’s after playing the 16th ranked schedule in the league. Perhaps most telling is that the Lightning are 0-3 against top-10 competition and 1-4 against top-16. Tampa has three wins in its last eight games. Two of those victories occurred against the Islanders and the other one occurred against the Devils. Furthermore, the Bolts offense isn’t as great as advertised either, as they have scored one goal in four of their last eight games. Finally, Ben Bishop is on our overrated list. He’s widely regarded as one of the best but we’re suggesting he’s one of the worst. Bishop continues to give up soft goals frequently and the only reason he makes so many saves is because he takes up 7/8 of the net. He’s slow and very beatable.
The Sharkies have won two straight on this current East Coast trip so hopefully we’re not too late to the party. What sticks out the most is San Jose’s stingy defense, as they have allowed a mere 24, 24, 25 and 20 shots against in their last four games respectively. San Jose has allowed 25 shots or less in seven of its last 10 games and even when they allow more than that, it is just slightly. When a team that can score is allowing eight shots on net or less per period, their win expectation is through the roof. The Sharkies have a history of playing great hockey on these East Coast swings and we expect it to continue here.
Boston -½ +108 over ARIZONA
Regulation only. Boston was not high on our radar to begin the year. We figured that the Bruins were getting older and were in a transition period but the more we see this team play and the deeper we look into their numbers, the more they stand out as a threat. Only two teams, Nashville and New Jersey have allowed less high quality scoring chances than the B’s. Only three teams have higher puck possession numbers than the Bruins. Whether it’s on offense or defense, the Bruins rank high on the analytics scale. It gets even better too. According to the Sagarin ratings, Boston has played the toughest schedule in the league and yet they are still 8-6. The Bruins are 1-5 against top-10 teams but that is a misleading number when you consider that Tuukka Rask was not in goal in four of those six games. Rask will bring his .938 save % into this game. The Bruins have won four of six and take a big step down in class in this, the first game of a three-game trip.
The Coyotes on the other hand can’t get out of their own way. They definitely can’t get out of their own end either. Last year we saw the emergence of Max Domi and Anthony Duclair. This year, neither has been heard from. Last year, Arizona appeared to be coming on and was often a tough out. This year, they are softer, beatable and playing with far less swag. Arizona has the biggest discrepancy in the NHL between high quality chances for and high quality chances against. They have created just 78 while allowing 138. Most teams have a discrepancy in the 10-20 range. The ‘Yotes have brutal numbers right across the board at both ends of the ice. They are often running around in their own end while rarely sustaining any offensive time. Lastly, the goaltending matchup here heavily favors the B’s too.
Pass NBA
The Real Animal
Georgia +10
Georgia is still rebuilding under Kirby Smart but I think it’s just a matter of time. Already we’ve seen a dramatic improvement on the defensive line in the last month and the Bulldogs have won the statistics by an average of 110 yards per game in their last five games. The War Eagles are 0-5 SU and ATS in Athens since 2006. This is rare to see Georgia a double-digit home underdog. Nick Chubbs is upset after fumbling twice last week. This also figures to be a rather low-scoring game. It’s windy in Atlanta today and would assume similar conditions in Athens. Auburn QB Sean White is banged up and not 100 percent and there’s a chance lead rusher Kamryn Pettway may not play at all. As long as QB Eason doesn’t force things and plays conservatively the Dawgs have a shot at the upset here. Auburn’s defensive line is excellent but I think the Georgia defensive line can limit the Eagles offensively. Auburn has only played two road games this year. I don’t recall UGA ever going an entire season without recording an SEC home win between the hedges. This is their last shot at 0-3 so far. The Bulldogs are allowing just 3.1 yards per carry in league games and White only has nine touchdown passes all season. I am very tempted by the total UNDER, but still stick here with Georgia plus the points. Auburn 1-5 ATS as an SEC double-digit road favorite.
Jimmy Moore
Stanford -3.5
Oregon is so pitiful this season they are getting points at home from a less then stellar Stanford team, but that Stanford team is easily the play here since the Ducks defense is pretty much non-existant. Stanford has covered 20 of their last 29 conference road games and they will be very happy to stick it to the Ducks to get revenge for a home loss to Oregon last season. Oregon only has one cover all season long and with how bad they have been there is no way they can be motivated for anything but the end of the season. Lay it with Stanford here.