Larry Ness
UCLA vs. USC
Play: USC -16
The 5-5 UCLA Bruins are at USC to take on the 9-2 Trojans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
UCLA comes in off a 44-34 victory over Aizona State, while USC most recently posted a 38-24 road win over Colorado last weekend.
Note that when these team’s met last year, it was USC that scored the relatively simple 36-14 victory.
The Bruins looked terrible on the defensive side in their win over Arizona State last Saturday, giving up 584 total yards, including 290 through the air. With a much more “winnable” game at home against 5-5 Cal in their season finale, QB Josh Rosen and company could be caught looking ahead.
The Trojans didn’t look overly impressive defensively last week either, giving up 486 total yards. But the unit came up big when it had to, bending but not breaking with two key INT’s (note that the defense has three picks over the last two games.) USC QB Sam Darnold was 21 of 34 for 329 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s.
I’ll point out that UCLA is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine off a win against a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year), while USC is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 37 points or more in its previous outing.
This is an important game for both teams, but there’s no way that USC takes the foot off the gas at this point. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Consider the Trojans in this matchup.
Ray Monoha
Virginia vs. Miami Florida
Play: Virginia +19
Virginia +19 Expectations are now extremely high as Miami controls it's own destiny to the BCS Playoff. This is quite the look ahead and let down spot for them. Miami jumped to #2 in the country after their home win last week against Notre Dame. It was an absolute route that was quite the emotional win for them. Coming back down here to a game where the crowd obviously won't be as rowdy and the opponent isn't one you necessarily want to get up from. The Cavaliers have the capabilities to put together some offensive drives as well, which can allow them to steal some early momentum here. Some trends to note. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Virginia is worth the move here, as the Hurricanes are certainly going to be in an emotional spot here.
Virginia vs. Miami Florida
Play: Virginia +19
Expectations are now extremely high as Miami controls it's own destiny to the BCS Playoff. This is quite the look ahead and let down spot for them. Miami jumped to #2 in the country after their home win last week against Notre Dame. It was an absolute route that was quite the emotional win for them. Coming back down here to a game where the crowd obviously won't be as rowdy and the opponent isn't one you necessarily want to get up from. The Cavaliers have the capabilities to put together some offensive drives as well, which can allow them to steal some early momentum here. Some trends to note. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Virginia is worth the move here, as the Hurricanes are certainly going to be in an emotional spot here.
Big Al
Kentucky vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia -21
Last week, I was on the Auburn Tigers +3 over Georgia, here, on these pages, and was rewarded with a 23-point blowout win by the Tigers. That was Georgia’s first loss this season after starting the year 9-0. Now, people who have followed me over the years know that I like to go against College Football teams off their first defeat of the season when they started the year going 5-0 or better. But I’m actually not going to go against the Bulldogs in this game, because I don’t believe they will have a letdown. And it’s for several reasons. First, this will be Georgia’s final home game of the season, so I feel the Bulldogs will be excited to get back on the field to play this game. And College Football teams have gone 78% ATS if they lost their previous game by 20 or more points, and are now favored by more than 15 points in their final home game of the season. Also, SEC teams off an upset loss are 70.9% ATS vs. .500 (or better) Conference foes off an upset win. Finally, the Bulldogs are 68% ATS since 1991 at home off an upset defeat. Lay the points with the Bulldogs.
Brandon Shively
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky
Pick: Middle Tennessee -3
The visitors catch 3 points and are at a nice number here Friday night. MTSU and WKU are very similar teams. Both have not put up the points they’re used to in the past and both have been lock down on defense. It’s very rare to see the style of play from both teams, but here grabbing the points is a solid play.
Middle Tennessee State is pretty good at controlling the pace of a game. This offense tries to be as balanced as possible and their edge comes from their ability to build sustained drives.
That is nothing the Hilltoppers simply haven’t been able to do this season. WKU has zero rhythm to an offense for the first time in a couple seasons now. Usually fast paced, they really just can’t find their groove at all.
Going just 2-8 ATS this season, it is hard to trust them in this spot.
Power Sports
Army vs. North Texas
Pick: North Texas
Unique matchup Saturday evening in Denton as for the third time in a year North Texas will play Army. Last year, North Texas paid a visit to West Point and shocked the Cadets as 17-point underdogs, winning outright, 35-18. The Mean Green finished the regular season only 5-7 SU, mind you, but because there are so many bowl games, they were granted eligibility. They drew Army again, in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, and while they covered - as 11-pt pups - this time they lost, 38-31. There's been a bit of "unique" line movement on this game mid-week and because of that (and other reasons), I'm going to call for UNT to make it 3-0 ATS the L2 seasons against the Black Knights.
Last time, I wrote about North Texas was for their game against Florida Atlantic on 10.21. At the time, they were coming off three consecutive victories, two of them upsets. I took the other side (FAU) and my goodness what a beatdown it turned out to be as the Mean Green lost 69-31, allowing the Owls to score on each of their first 11 drives! But as ugly as that sounds, it is their only C-USA loss of the season and they come into this game riding another three-game win streak. This time, I expect things to go MUCH better.
It's their opponent this time around that enters in off consecutive upsets. Army, now 8-2 SU, just beat both Air Force and Duke outright. In each instance, their defense was outstanding. But it will be tested here by a North Texas offense averaging 44.8 points and 518 yards here in Denton. Pardon the lousy pun, but I believe Army simply lacks the firepower to keep up this week. There is also the matter of this being the Black Knights final reg season game before the annual showdown w/ Navy, which doesn't take place until December 9th. That's three weeks from now and I wonder if the players (who I absolutely respect!) maybe "phone this one in." The Mean Green have not lost a single home game this year (5-0), outscoring by 18.6 points per game while outgaining them by 185 YPG.
Will Rogers
Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin -7
The set-up: Georgia and Notre Dame were the biggest losers from last weekend but along with Miami, Wisconsin was the biggest winner. The Badgers not only beat then-No. 20 Iowa 38-14, a week after the Hawkeyes had scored 55 points while destroying Ohio State but the FBS's top-defensive team held Iowa without an offensive TD and to just 66 yards of total offense. The results of the past weekend has Wisconsin at No. 5 in the latest CFP rankings and with a good chance of reaching the "Final 4" if the the Badgers were to win out. Michigan, winners of three straight, are back in the CFP rankings at No. 24. The Wolverines visit Camp Randall in Madison at 8-2 overall, including 5-2 in the Big Ten East.
Michigan: Jim Harbaugh's team has had a QB problem for most of the season but offensively, has begun to rely on junior RB Karan Higdon and sophomore RB Chris Evans to pound the ball. Higdon has 854 yards (6.6 YPC) and 10 TDs but sprained his ankle in the second quarter and didn't finish the Wolverines' win over Maryland. Evans, who has 569 RY on 5.5 YPC and 6 TDs, told the Detroit Free Press that Higdon practiced on Tuesday. Michigan had the nation's top defense last season but lost 10 of 11 starters. However, the Wolverines enter this game allowing just 254.8 YPG (3rd-best), while allowing 16.4 PPG (9th).
Wisconsin: The Badgers top all FBS teams in total defense at 247.6 YPG, as well as in allowing just 81.5 YPG on the ground. The team's 13.4 PPG allowed ranks 3rd-best. Wisconsin's ground game (245.4 YPG, which ranks 17th), is the key to the team averaging 36.3 PPG (24th). RB Taylor is terrific, coming in with 1,525 yards (7.0 YPC) with 12 TDs. However, QB Alex Hornibrook is considered a "weak spot." He's completing 64.1% but Wisconsin ranks 96th in passing YPG (188.1 per), while Hornibrook has 17 TDs but also 12 INTs. He threw three INTs against Iowa, two of which were returned for TDs.
The pick: I sure don't trust Hornibrook but his Michigan counterpart is no better. Michigan runs the ball well and plays excellent defense but Wisconsin does both of those things, better! Wisconsin has won at least 10 games for the fourth straight season, which is a program record. The Badgers have a very real chance at making the CFP's Final 4 but winning out is a must! That starts here vs. Michigan and just like I did last Saturday, will take the Badgers here at home. Lay it!
Wunderdog
Massachusetts vs. BYU
Pick:Massachusetts +4
The Cougars are having their worst season in at least three decades at 3-8. It is hard to imagine how far they have fallen and how quickly. BYU has had 34 out of their last 37 seasons at .500 or better. It has gone from bad to worse as BYU has now lost their top two QBs for the season and Joe Critchlow will get the nod vs. UMass. One good thing for UMass is they have no injuries which at this stage of the season is almost unheard of. The injury free Minutemen have been able to get better because of it, and have won three of their last four games. The offense has really been clicking at 39.4 ppg over their last five. This could really be a milestone game for UMass to take down BYU, and they know the Cougars are leaking oil and should be stoked to beat a legit big-time program.
Jason Sharpe
Michigan (+7.5) over Wisconsin
The Michigan Wolverines have underachieved a little this year under third-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, but that perception could all change here in this one. The Wolverines are still quietly sitting at 8-2 overall on the season. This is a very young football team that has been showing nice improvements, especially in the running game and up front on the offensive line. They also have a new quarterback for the second half of the season as they switched over to redshirt freshman Brandon Peters and he's done a solid job for them thus far. Michigan brings one of the top defenses in the country into this one as they have allowed more than 20 points in just one game so far this year. They face a Wisconsin team here that focuses mainly on running the football, which plays right into the strength of this Wolverines defense and is a good all-around match-up for them. This is a very difficult defense to go up and down the field on mainly running the football. Lots of pressure here on a Badgers team that if they win out will go to CFB playoffs. This is their stiffest test to date as they have taken advantage of having played an easy schedule. A win here by any margin for the Badgers will be enough to keep their playoff hopes alive. Wisconsin is also dealing with its fair share of injuries right now. With nothing to lose I expect the Wolverines to play this one loose and keep things very close.
Alan Harris
Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Play: Over 40.5
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Michigan Wolverines hit the road to take on the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI, on Saturday afternoon. The Wolverines have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five Big Ten games and they have gone an excellent 10-3 to the over in their last thirteen road games. They have also gone up and over the number in 15 of their last 20 games where they faced a team with a winning record and they are an impressive 22-8-1 to the over in their last 31 games overall. The Badgers have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 9-2 to the over in their last eleven conference games and they are 10-3 to the over in their last thirteen following a straight up win. They have also gone over the total in seven of their last ten home games and they are a lights out 9-3 to the over in their last twelve games following a game where they allowed 20 points or less. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five head-to-head meetings and that's where we'll have our play as we have both teams cracking the 20-point plateau, putting this one over the total in Madison on Saturday afternoon.
Doc's Sports
New Jersey at Winnipeg
Play: Over 5.5
The New Jersey Devils have a new approach this season. They are no longer slowing things down and trying to limit the amount of shots in a game. The Devils are third this season in goals per game, and the faster approach has catapulted them to the top of the Metropolitan Division. They'll eventually come back to earth, but I don't think the pace is going to change much. They want to get as many shots on goal as possible and don't mind taking some chances defensively to do it. The Winnipeg Jets love playing that type of game as well, so we should get plenty of quality scoring chances in Saturday's matchup.
Sleepyj
Hawaii vs. Utah State
Play: Utah State -11
College football is now winding down with only a few games left on the schedule before bowl season starts. Professional bettors and handicappers love this time of year because of the situational angles they have at their disposal. We have a bunch we can touch on for this particular game.
Let's start with the game itself. Why is this game being played in Utah St at noon? Well this is one of those "What If" games. "What If" we need a win, who can we screw the hardest. That's an easy answer and it's 100% Hawaii. The reason Utah State set this game up at this time is because it leaves zero advantages for Hawaii.
Hawaii plays most games at night. Home games typically start between 7pm - 9pm. Even if the Rainbows are on the road, they generally play night games being they are in the Mountain West conference. So not only do the Rainbows have a 5.5hr flight ahead of them, they now have to play 7-9 hrs before they are use too. I can't think of many other travel spots that are this bad for any team. This week Hawaii will be on the field at a time they are usually in bed fast asleep. This is a huge advantage for Utah St and this was set up for the "What If" possibility.
You ask what is "What If" ?... Well the Aggies sit right now at 5-5 on the season and they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Utah State has to travel to Air Force next week which is a much tougher game one would think. This will be an all hands on deck and "All In" approach from the Utah State players, coaches and fans. This is also the Aggies final home game of the season. Most pro handicappers like this spot because it involves team motivation.
Speaking of motivation we have to ask ourselves if Hawaii has any. With the travel situation aside and an issue all in itself, Hawaii also fits the bill of the "Dream Crusher" scenario. Hawaii had to win last week against Fresno State to keep the season alive. They lost that game and a bowl bid for the Rainbows is now over. Hawaii's motivation will come next week if they have any at all when they close up the season at home against BYU.
Just a another quick angle is the unfamiliarity of these teams. They haven't played each other since 2014. I always like to back a motivated team with something to play for against a team that has no idea to expect.
Hawaii has 3 total wins on the season. They beat all bad teams. Western Carolina, San Jose State who is just 1-7 and UMass who is 3-7. Hawaii has also lost it's last 4 road games in a row. Utah State would have the more impressive resume right now for sure when we weigh it out.
Let's talk some stats !!
Hawaii relies on the passing offense they have. It's not going to be easy going up against the Aggies who rank #38th in passing defense. The Aggies only allowed 75yds passing last week to New Mexico. That should give them some real confidence for this week. Hawaii rushing the ball is the key for them in this game. Rainbows run the ball well, but I'm concerned how they are going to feel as this game goes on. The travel is one thing, but the elevation is another. Being 4,710ft above sea level in Maverick Stadium is going to be a challenge for a team that plays at 36ft. It's going to take a toll on the Rainbows guys. Start time, travel and elevation changes has me thinking Hawaii has no legs come middle of the 3rd quarter.
Hawaii allows 34ppg and Utah St. avg's 30ppg on offense. So We should expect Utah St on a normal day to get to 31. I just explained above how this game is anything but normal. Utah St. should exceed that point total of 31.
Hawaii has now lost 3 games in a row and they have failed to score more than 23 points in those 3 contests. Two of those games came at home for the Rainbows. Kinda makes you wonder about this one as far as a point total now doesn't it?
The Hawaii defense is rather pathetic as they rank 93rd Vs. Rush and 114th against the pass. Utah State is a well rounded out team and they rely on splitting up the pass and run on offense. They will keep Hawaii guessing all game for sure.
Another factor I like to look at is the kicking game. We have to always factor it in when you have one of the best kickers in the country. We have that in this game with Utah St. On the other hand, Hawaii has a very inexperienced and inconsistent kicking game. This is yet another advantage for the Agiies here at home.
Overall we covered basically everything that's important here. This line moved up a few ticks on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I can tell you first hand the public isn't betting this game mid week. That's sharp money and if they are seeing what I'm seeing, that move is 110% correct.
Utah St Rolls 40-16....A nice two score cushion for ourselves even with the line factored. Hawaii will be just about packed up and back on the plane at half-time. They want no part of this trip today.
Buster Sports
UAB +10.5
This is definitely not the Florida Gators from years past as they have stumbled their way to a 3-6 record. All kinds of trouble for the Gators this year including firing their coach and they have been just destroyed by the injury bug. Also, we can’t forget how the year started for Florida with the suspension of 8 players. Now they have two home games left and with rival Florida State on deck we believe there will be little to no interest against their Conference USA opposition. UAB has been a great story and they will be going Bowling this year, which is just a great credit to their HC Bill Clark. (Should win coach of the year). Clark will have his team ready to go to Gainesville and we believe the dis-interested Gators are giving the Blazers way too many points. Backing our selection is the fact that UAB are 7-1 ATS their last 8 overall and the fact that the Gators are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. At the time of this writing Florida is a 10 1/2 point favorite and we will be more than happy to take those points.
Ian Cameron
SMU vs. Memphis
Play: SMU +12.5
Seen this total get played down nearly a touchdown due to forecasted winds in the 20+ mph range. That’s an obvious concern for two teams in SMU and Memphis that like to throw the football. The passing games will still be on display but the deep shots could be limited. In terms of running the ball, SMU could have an advantage with stronger conference numbers than Memphis. Against AAC foes, the Mustangs average 5.2 ypc and 181.8 ypg. The Tigers are a notch below at 4.7 ypc and 150.7 ypg. Defensively, there isn't much that separates either squad. Memphis' overall numbers are slightly better but SMU's took a hit after back-to-back games against the potent offenses of UCF and Navy in which the defense allowed nearly 8 ypp combined.
I think the real storyline here is the seemingly inflated pointspread. Memphis is one of the hottest teams in the country having won and covered five straight (some got a push in 30-27 win over Navy). As a result, their stock in the betting markets has climbed significantly. Two weeks ago, Memphis was laying -10.5 to Tulane at home and now -12.5 to SMU. From a power rating standpoint, the Mustangs would be over a field goal favorite vs. the Green Wave on a neutral field. And SMU closed only +1.5 at Navy just last week (lost 43-40). Wind or no wind, we're getting value with SMU. Take the points!
Otto Sports
Virginia vs. Miami Fl
Play: Virginia +18.5
Prior to beating Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, Miami posted narrow wins over Florida State (24-20), Georgia Tech (25-24), Syracuse (27-19), and North Carolina (24-19). Combined, those teams are currently 14-24. And from a power rating perspective, you could certainly lump Virginia into that mix. The Cavaliers actually beat UNC on the road and GT at home.
The Cavaliers aren't without issues. For starters, the ACC slate has been favorable. No Clemson, no NC State, no Virginia Tech (last game of the year), and obviously no Miami up until this point. And in a small step up in class last week, UVA lost at Louisville 38-21 (the box score suggested the Cardinals should have won by more).
But I feel the main issue here is the spot for the Hurricanes. Last week's game against Notre Dame was one of the biggest of the entire college football season and Miami came up aces. Now at 9-0, Miami has two very winnable games vs. Virginia and at Pitt before playing in the already determined ACC Championship vs. Clemson. And we should also mention the ridiculous turnover margin Miami has posted this year (+15, 24 gained) and of late (+10, 16 gained last four games). No matter how much emphasis is placed on picks and strips, those numbers simply aren't sustainable. If Virginia can find a way to hold on to the football, this is a number they should cover.