MMA OddsBreaker
Parlay: Theodoreau -270 & Tuivasa -165
I think Elias Theodoreau (-270) and Tai Tuivasa (-165) both hold a bit of value at their current odds. I see Theodoreau playing the distance game and outpointing Dan Kelly on the feet for the majority of three rounds en route to picking up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, though I could also see him finding success with his wrestling and ground and pound in this bout. Tuivasa is making his promotional debut against Rashad Coulter, who is coming off a second round knockout loss to Chase Sherman, in what was his UFC debut, where he also collected an extra $50,000 for ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Tuivasa is a training partner of Mark Hunt’s and Tyson Pedro’s, and he will certainly have the home advantage heading into his debut. I believe he will also be the better mixed martial artist between the two, and I expect his superior technique to make the difference, as I see him finding clean shots early and putting Coulter away.
Jim Feist
SMU at Memphis
Pick: Over
SMU has lost its last two games, a wild 43-40 loss last week to Navy and then a 31-24 setback two weeks ago vs Central Florida. Now they face a Memphis team that has won it's last five games, scoring over 41 in four of those wins and 30 in the other. In fact, the Tigers have outscored their last five opponents by a 239-136 margin. The Tigers are 8-1 on the season with their only loss coming at the hands of Central Florida. Memphis averages over 500 yards a games with 329 coming via the air and 173 on the ground. Memphis is going to pile up the points in this one and SMU should get their share also.
DAVE COKIN
VIRGINIA AT MIAMI
PLAY: MIAMI -19.5
This is the game where we`re going to see loads of college handicappers backing Virginia as big dogs in a potential flat spot for Miami. That does make some sense, as the Hurricanes are off two enormous wins against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.
The `Canes are now in the playoffs if they can win out and that means there`s actually more pressure on them here than in any game to date this season. If they get conservative or simply overlook a struggling Virginia squad, Miami could have a battle on its hands.
But I`m more into the fundamentals than guessing at the attitude. Miami has been awesome against the pass all season and Virginia has no running game. The Cavaliers have not rushed for four yards per carry against even one ACC opponent. So I don`t see it as likely the Virginia offense gets much done here.
Miami has impressively overcome the loss of star RB Mark Walton and Travis Homer was terrific last week against Notre Dame. No team in the country has more momentum than the `Canes do right now. I`m confident they don`t suffer the letdown and take care of business with another impressive win. Miami minus the points.
Harry Bondi
CINCINNATI (-3.5) over East Carolina
We’ve hit nine straight FREE PICKS and one of the winners during that streak came last Saturday when we cashed a ticket on Tulane over East Carolina. Today we go back to the well and fade the pitiful Pirates once again. ECU’s season has been a disaster. The team has just one cover in the last seven weeks and is 2-8 ATS overall for the season and a dismal 10-24 ATS dating back the last three years, including a 6-16 ATS mark as an underdog and a 5-13 ATS record at home. Cinci has also suffered through a rough season under rookie head coach Luke Fickell, but the Bearcats are at least still showing signs of life. Over the last three weeks they have covered two of their three games and in those three games they have averaged 433 yards of total offense. They are starving for a win and will be able to move the ball at will against an ECU defense that’s allowing 554 total yards per game and 45 points per game. Bearcats roll!
Executive Sports
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Missouri -7.5
Play On Road favorites (MISSOURI) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game. (77-30, 72% over the last 10 seasons.) The situation's record this season is: (6-2). The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-8 ).
Carmine Bianco
Rice at Old Dominion
Play: Rice +8
Not much separates these two this season other than their records as both sit at the bottom of the C-USA standings and both have had long winless streaks this season. Rice despite their porous defense have found ways to score this season and are 33-16-2 their last 51 ATS against teams with a losing record while Old Dominion sport a 1-5-1 at home their last 7 ATS. We'll take the points here.
John Ryan
Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Play: Over 68
Round Table Discussion Points
Same logic we used in taking over in the Ole Miss game last week applies again this week. Both teams come into this game scoring over 32 points per game. Jordan Ta’amu has come in for Shea Patterson and the Rebel passing game has not skipped a beat. Ta’amu has completed over 73% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and two interceptions in the last 3 games. Ole Miss has balanced receiving with 3 receivers piling up yards and scoring touchdowns this season and the passing game has opened up running lanes as the Rebels top 2 rushers are averaging over 5 yards per carry. The Rebels defense has not stopped anyone all season giving up close to 36 points per game. Ole Miss gives up over 250 yards per game and we look for Aggies running backs Williams and Ford to add to their 16 touchdowns on the season. The Aggies also bring big play ability with their Special Teams and we will see a lot of big plays in this one adding to the scoreboard lighting up in this SEC west battle in Oxford. Take Over 69 points in this SEC Conference game.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics
The following game situations match the SIM projections for the expected outcome of this game.
Mississippi is 9-1 ATS Over in games this season, plus 7.9 units
Mississippi is 8-0 ATS Over in games on grass this season, plus 8 units
Mississippi is 6-0 ATS Over in home lined games this season, plus 6 units
Frank Jordan
Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -7
This is a classic Big Ten match up between number 24 Michigan and number 5 Wisconsin. Michigan is 8-2 with a conference record of 5-2. Wisconsin is 10-0 with a conference record of 7-0. Michigan started the season with a 4 game winning streak before falling to Michigan State 14-10 and after a win the next week lost in the following week to Penn State 42-13 to lose their second game. Since there they are 3-0, but all against unranked teams and on the year Michigan is just 1-1 against ranked teams. Wisconsin has won eight of their 10 games by double digits and on the year is scoring 36 points a game while allowing just 13 points a game which is third in the nation. Look for Wisconsin to continue to be tough on defense as they shut down a Michigan which has had their struggles this year as Wisconsin runs all over the Wolverines to the tune of a 35-17 victory.
SPORTS WAGERS
BAYLOR +9 over Iowa State
Both of these teams have improved substantially over the course of the season but only Iowa State has something to show for it. Now the improving Bears with a 1-9 record and no market credit whatsoever will get a stab at a team that might be spent. Last week, we wanted to see encouragement and belief taken from the Bears second half against Texas Tech and we saw it. We also needed to see a hunger and urgency to finally break through, a sense of being fed up with losing. The Bears showed us that balance of encouragement and determination during this practice week and this might be a good spot to move in hard, provided we also get the needed vibe from the visiting favorite.
We loved backing Matt Campbell's Toledo teams and are full believers in what's happening in Ames but the next two games are not the time to send it in on the Cyclones. Their four-game winning streak, which began with an upset win at Oklahoma and the emergence of Kyle Kempt at quarterback, was capped by an emotional home win over then-unbeaten TCU. The Cyclones fell behind West Virginia 20-0 in the obvious letdown spot, then fought back to lose 20-16. Then last week, a seesaw game with Oklahoma State saw Iowa State's hopes die at the 3-yard line in the final seconds for a gut-wrenching loss. It's been a whirlwind season with a string of recent tight games, the open date is far in the rearview mirror, and the Cyclones' last outing was a heartbreak for the ages. To put it bluntly, this bunch is out of gas, and not even an excellent coaching staff can prevent them from stopping to grab a subconscious breath heading into the matchup with a one-win Baylor team. The season has caught up with this surprise team and now they’re spotting gar too many points in a game they may lose outright.
Note: There are different numbers here depending on where you shop. Obviously getting the best number is everyone's intention so we're betting this at +9 at SIA. However, if you can't take +9, taking back anything over 7 still comes highly recommended.
FIU +14.5 over FAU
Rivalry games produce the unexpected. Nicknamed ‘The Shula Bowl’, the FIU/FAU rivalry has been balanced and competitive, as each side has won two of the previous four meetings. The culture is undoubtedly changing in both the Panthers and Owls’ camps and this is attested to the coaching that both institutions acquired in 2017. Florida Atlantic picked up former USC Head Coach Lane Kiffin. We can recite you his credentials but we will summarize it by saying his resume speaks for itself. The same applies to Butch Davis, the current Head Coach of Florida International. Both teams are in position to set records for wins in a season, as neither Florida Atlantic nor Florida International have ever won more than eight games in any campaign. Both teams are also bowl eligible for the first time in many years (FAU’s last bowl bid was in 2008, FIU’s was in 2011) so winning this rivalry game is the whip cream and cherry on top.
A hiccup by the Panthers last week has resulted in FIU being given a lack of respect in this market. FIU enters off a loss at home against Old Dominion where the Panthers were a 10-point choice at the close. This result has activated the sell switch on FIU in this market but we must highlight that the Panthers were set up for that letdown, as they went on a rampage throughout the Conference USA in the three weeks previous to that affair. In the three-game winning streak leading up to their demise against ODU, FIU closed as a 13-point pup against Tulane, a 14½-point pooch at Marshall, and a 6½-point dog against UTSA. The Panthers won two of those three contests by double-digit margins and were victorious by no less than a touchdown in any of the three results. FIU’s plight against Old Dominion gives us an opportunity to take advantage, as they are up against a team whose stock is through the ceiling.
Florida Atlantic continues to win at will. The Owls have won six in a row and have covered in five of these six contests with their only against-the-spread loss over that span coming in the most absurd of manners imaginable. Readers of this space know exactly what we’re talking about, especially after Lane Kiffin tweeted out, “We didn’t want to cover”. It has been called one of the worst beats in betting history. FIU has been disrespected all season long. Last week they were a big favorite and lost after three weeks of being an underdog and winning big. The Panthers have embraced the underdog role and now they’re being disrespected again, perhaps more than any time this season. That chip on their shoulder they’ve had all season prior to last week returns here and the Panthers likely bring this one in well under the number.
UL Monroe +37½ over AUBURN
The Tigers enter this one off a dominant performance when they laced the then-ranked #1 Georgia Bulldogs 40-17 on The Plains, last Saturday. if the Tigers win the Iron Bowl next week when hosting yet another #1-ranked opponent in arch-rival Alabama they will continue onto the SEC Championship and get the Dawgs again in Atlanta. Given how they fared against The Bulldog Nation last week, Auburn likes its chances if it can get over the proverbial Crimson hurdle.
We are not here to argue that Monroe is going to upset Auburn at home and cause sheer pandemonium. However, there are two things that make War Eagle a prime fade target this week. First, the Tigers have all but officially declared that this game will be nothing more than a glorified scrimmage. Auburn’s stud running back Kerryon Johnson will be limited in his services this week as skipper Gus Malzahn will hope to preserve him and keep him fresh for deployment next week against ‘Bama. Echoing a similar sentiment, the Tigers will not be taking too many chances here, as they will likely build up a large enough of lead against Monroe and pull their starters to prevent exposing them. This gives Monroe backdoor potential if need be, but it likely won’t even come to that.
The Warhawks are one of the Sun Belt’s most improved teams in 2017. While a win against Auburn seems improbable, UL-Monroe returns to business next week when they take on Arkansas State in conference play. A win for Monroe next week gets them to the five-win mark season, one shy of bowl eligibility. With a season finale at Florida State, bowl eligibility will likely be on the line for both teams in that contest but even then, if Monroe keeps it close they will be on a short list of 5-7 teams to be extended a bowl invitation if some spots need to be filled. It all starts with how they fare today at Auburn. If Monroe can keep this game manageable it will be a moral victory for the Warhawks and that incentive is enough to compel them when junk time comes around. Auburn is spotting too many points when it has bigger fish to fry. Situational plays factor into our handicapping and in that regard, you will never see a bigger sandwich spot than the one facing the Tigers here, that being playing a nobody and being favored by more than five TD’s right in between playing #1 Georgia and #1 Alabama.
DUKE +7 over Georgia Tech
Duke opened the season 4-0 but has lost six straight since, dropping below .500 on the season. The Blue Devils offense has averaged 292 yards and scored just seven touchdowns during that span. The Devils are a significant dog at home this week and they’ll be a dog next week too, at Wake but there's reason to believe this team could snag two wins and return to the bowl season in David Cutcliffe's 10th year at the helm.
Duke faced Army last week. Few teams embrace defending the option like Duke. The Yellow Jackets are an annual ACC Coastal Division opponent, and service academies make regular appearances on the schedule. Duke was 3-3 ATS in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' first six looks at Army, Navy and Georgia Tech but is 6-1 since then for an overall ATS record of 9-4 against that trio dating back to when Knowles replaced Mike MacIntyre in 2010. The Devils held Army to 189 and 214 yards in the past two seasons (they won both) and held them to just 266 total yards last week, despite losing by five points. We like this team's overall chemistry, coaching, defensive talent, track record against the option and its approach in defending the option. The six-game skid with scant offensive output has been ugly, but the schedule has been tough. We're not ready to give up on this outfit's bowl hopes, especially given the prices that Duke will see down the stretch. This is a good home matchup for Duke and while we like them to win outright, the number, which was at +6 almost all week before moving to +7, prompts us to take the seven points but also to take Duke to win outright as well,
Therefore the bets are as follows:
Duke +220 for 1 unit
Duke +7 -110 for 1.1 units to win 1 unit
NORTH TEXAS -2½ over Army
The Black Knights have defied convention in the past few weeks, as they have orchestrated two consecutive outright victories as a mid-priced underdog. Army has also done so as a public choice despite the fact they were the pooch in both contests at Air Force and then at home against Duke. Not only is Army a recognizable entity but the he Black Knights have also been a cash cow. With the Black Knights coming into this contest at 8-2, nostalgia enthusiasts will sing overtures of Army’s glory days as one of college football’s powerhouses of yesteryear. This sentiment also comes into the equation because Army has won six straight now and their historic pedigree amplifies their performance even more. This material will only serve as more hyperbole in this contest, as Army is up against the team that it defeated in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in 2016.
The Mean Green have not forgotten about that faithful day in December where Army escaped them in overtime in that aforementioned bowl game. The Mean Green trailed by as much as 17 points in the Heart of Dallas Bowl but they rallied to force extra time against the Black Knights. Then, they simply ran out of gas. Given the fact the two teams will meet on North Texas’ ground, the Mean Green undoubtedly circled their calendar for this contest. North Texas has been playing some exceptional football in its own right. UNT has won six of its last seven games and has won the West to secure a bid to the Conference USA Championship and take on the East Division Champ in two weeks’ time. Avenging a bitter defeat will only give them more juice to finish their campaign with might.
Furthermore, the Black Knights also have a date with Navy up nest to conclude its regular season where they undoubtedly have their best chance at capturing The Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy for the first time in 11 years. The goal every single year for both Army and Navy is to win THAT game. The Army/Navy game is both teams’ Super Bowl. Just to recap, Army has been a dog the past two weeks against Duke and Air Force and won both games outright. Now they’re a dog again against an unfamiliar program and have Navy on deck for The Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy. If you were thinking Army, you’ve been warned.
Michigan +242 over WISCONSIN
No Big Ten team has been ranked in the committee's top four all season so its best hope is an undefeated Power 5 conference champion in Wisconsin but there is a price to pay for playing such a weak schedule and the Badgers are very likely going to pay that price here. Seriously, do we really know how good this Badgers team is or isn’t? What is Wisky’s best win this year? Over 6-4 Iowa? Northwestern? Purdue? Pick any one because it really doesn’t matter. Wisconsin’s schedule ranks the worst among Power-5 teams and they weren’t blowing away teams. Nine, eight and 14-point wins over Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois respectively are weak results. If Michigan and Wisconsin switched schedules, we’d probably be discussing an undefeated Wolverines squad. Wisconsin favored by this much over Michigan is absurd.
Most of the media talk we've heard surrounding the Badgers this week centers around what a consistent machine the Wisconsin program has become. Wisconsin has never won by out-recruiting the rest of the Big Ten, which means the coaching has to be excellent. There seems to be a general assumption that it is, but while we think Paul Chryst is one of the best pro-style play-callers of his generation, anointing him even a basic success as a head coach is premature. Chryst posted a .500 record at a solid Pitt program before being called home to Madison but it's important to remember that it's still just two+ years with players that another staff recruited. The Badgers also have a third defensive boss in three years and while the last guy had coordinated defenses at Boise State, Southern California, Tennessee and Washington, the new guy has coordinated exactly never until this year and he’s faced nobody of any importance. The Badgers can join the elite this week with a win over Michigan but this is a different animal than the likes of Purdue, Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, BYU, Indiana or any other of the marshmallows the Badgers have encountered. Wisconsin is not poised one bit to take that next step.
It's not Michigan's year but that's not the fault of a defense that has responded to the loss of 10 starters by fielding one of the nation's best units. It's the offense that's been broken and it’s taking time for that side of the ball to find its identity and play-calling rhythm, but it's coming. The Wolverines have scored 35, 33 and 35 points respectively over their last three weeks without breaking a sweat, as all three games weren’t close. Brandon Peters led scoring drives on his first three possessions after replacing an ineffective John O'Korn in a 35-14 win over Rutgers three weeks ago and hasn’t looked back since. The staff has gotten the passing game on track with Peters and in the meantime the defense is suffocating and the ground game punishing. The Wolverines are not done improving and we'd suggest that Jim Harbaugh has some great bulletin board material to hang up in the locker room to get this bunch even more fired up than they already are. Most notably is the number 7, which is not only disrespectful, it’s insulting. Jim Harbaugh was embarrassed once already this year when his team was whacked by Penn State at Happy Valley. He’s not going to get embarrassed again. When the Wolverines’ bus pulls out of Madison, we’re confident that the Badgers will be out of the CFP discussion and we’ll have already cashed our ticket. Wolverines outright.
Jeff Benton
Saturday comp play is a play on Georgia to hammer Kentucky.
The Bulldogs were just flattened at Auburn last Saturday, as Kirby Smart's team fell from #1 in the playoff rankings, and in all likelihood will be on the outside looking in come January. I have faith that Smart will rally his team this weekend, and they will take care of their business at hand against a sneaky-good Kentucky team that enters at 7-3 for the year.
Kentucky just hammered Vanderbilt, and last season they gave the Bulldogs all they could handle, as UGa escaped Lexington with a 27-24 nail-biter of a win last November, so you know the Bulldogs will be on guard today between the hedges.
Georgia's win last year was their 7th in a row over Kentucky, and their 8th in the last 10 meetings. The Bulldogs have also covered 4 straight and 5 of their last 7 in this series.
Keep in mind that Kentucky's cover last week against Vandy was their first in their last 6 games.
More money-burning from the Wildcats today.
Georgia takes out last week's setback to Auburn on Kentucky in a big way today.
3* GEORGIA
Tommy Brunson
They are in for now! I am talking about the Oklahoma Sooners who have played themselves into one of the four coveted spots for the college football playoff in January. While OU may not stay in the top four, they will not be threatened today by the 1-9 Kansas Jayhawks who are just 3-7 against the spread in their 10 games this season.
The Sooners have not broken a sweat in this series in a long, long time. Oklahoma has outscored Kansas 162-17 over their last 3 series wins and covers, and the Sooners have covered in 7 of the last 10 series meetings as well - all of them straight up Oklahoma victories.
Baker Mayfield will pad his Heisman hopeful resume today, and that is an understatement.
Okie is favored by some 35 points in this one, but if you think for a minute they won't be able by at least 28 points by the half, you've got another think coming.
Last year's final score was 56-3, and a similar result today would not at all be a surprise.
Sooners roll.
4* OKLAHOMA
Jack Brayman
Let's keep this 17-5 win streak rolling tonight, as my free play is on the Oregon Ducks at home, laying the field goal to the Arizona Wildcats.
Normally I don't worry about the "hook buying" clause with free picks, because, well, they're free picks - an opinion play, if you will - and we all know about opinions and what they're like ... everyone's got one.
That said, buy the damn hook in this one, as it could be a barn burner.
I am releasing it because it'll be fun to watch, and should be a great game.
The biggest difference in this game, the changer you could say, will be Orgeon's rushing defense. It ranks 25th in the nation, allowing 125 yards per game and a mere 3.65 per carry. That lockdown coverage will be key against Arizona's Khalil Tate, who I admit, has explosive running ability, but is going to struggle today against Oregon's front line.
And once the Wildcats are turned into a one-dimensional team, I don't see how they will be able to turn the corner and get past the Ducks.
Take the home team, and buy that damn hook.
4* OREGON
Joey Juice
The Beavers are a much better team when they are playing at home, and that’s exactly where they find themselves today.
They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home while ASU is a horrible road team vs. the spread, as they are 5-13 in their last 18 on the road.
ASU gave up 24 points in the second half and lost to UCLA 44-37 last week after taking a 1 point lead into the half. To make matters worse for the Sun Devils, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus teams with a losing record.
I think Oregon State can win outright, but I'll take the points just in case.
4* OREGON STATE
Chris Jordan
My first free play is on the Missouri Tigers, minus the chalk against the Vanderbilt Commodores. My second free play is just lower on this page.
This is a horrible spot for the Commodores, who schedule makers have them visiting the surging Tigers at the wrong time.
Missouri is putting up an average of 54 points per game over the last four weeks, and we're talking about a Vanderbilt team that just last week allowed 41 points over the first three quarters to the same Kentucky team that was averaging 26 points per game.
You couple that Missouri's offense, with the fact it brings a much-improved defense to the show - it has yielded a mere 16.5 points per game during its current four-game winning streak - and things are all bad for the 'Dores.
I realize it is Senior Night, but that can also serve as a distraction, and the ceremony overrides the game for some of these guys.
Play the red-hot Tigers, who should walk out of here with their fifth straight win by double digits.
3* MISSOURI
My late free winner for you is on the Over in the Mountain West clash in San Diego, as the Aztecs host the Nevada Wolfpack.
Let's start with the road team, which has one of the worst defensive units in the nation. Horrible. We're talking about a unit that has allowed less than 30 points just twice this season, beating Hawai'i, 35-21, and San Jose State, 59-14.
And quite honestly, the way the Pack beat San Jose last week, it could've been detrimental, as now it feels as if it got one big win off its chest. These last two games for the Pack won't be easy, playing today in San Diego and next week closing at home against UNLV.
Nevada's defense will wilt under pressure in both games, and the points will come rolling in.
As for the Aztecs, I don't know what happened to this team. It rebounded the last two weeks, with wins over Hawai'i (28-7) and San Jose (52-7), but in back-to-back losses that derailed their Top 25 status, they gave up 31 to Boise State and 27 to Fresno State - both at home.
And if the Aztecs are rolling, they will let off a bit in the second half, allowing Nevada to score garbage-time TDs. That's where we push this total over the posted number.
San Diego State should win this, but by how many? Can't tell you that. Nevada will score some points, and help push this one high.
4* Nevada/San Jose State Over
Eric Schroeder
On the heels of my Mountain West sweep last night, hitting UNLV (30 Dime) and the Over (free), I'm playing the Washington Huskies against the Utah Utes in Pac 12 play.
While its College Football Playoff hopes have basically disappeared, after two lethargic road losses, Washington is still in line to repeat as Pac-12 champions. And knowing coach Chris Peterson, he won't let the Huskies suffer an emotional lull in this game, or the rest of the season. It's business as usual, meaning, "we're still playing for a championship."
With a conference championship serving as motivation to get a solid performnace out of the Huskies at Husky Stadium, where they are undefeated on the season, I like them to run things up against the visiting Utah Utes tonight.
What's been sad about Utah, a team that originally figured to be in the hunt for the Pac 12 title, is we're this late in the season and its offense is still trying to find its identity.
Tyler Huntley's return from injury hasn't materialized the way the Utes would have liked, and the Utes are still looking to establish their run game. Being unbalanced, it adds pressure to the Utes' passing game, which is unproven already.
Washington has the better playmakers and will run away with this one, winning by at least three TDs.
1* WASHINGTON