Free Picks for Saturday, November 19th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Jason Sharpe
Michigan State (+22.5) over Ohio State
The Michigan State Spartans have been one of the biggest disappointments in college football this year as they went from a team in last year's final four playoff to one with an ugly 3-7 record this season. The Spartans finally snapped their long losing streak at 7 games last week by beating Rutgers by a 49-0 score as the Spartans showed some encouraging things in that football game. The Spartans looked to be badly lacking confidence early in this season after having lost arguably their best quarterback and offensive tackle in school history from last year's team. This is final home game of the season for MSU, making it 'Senior Day' for a group of players that have accomplished a lot during their playing careers in East Lansing. With no bowl game to look forward this game here at home against Ohio State becomes the 'Super Bowl' for MSU this season. Look for the Spartans to stay within this number. Play Michigan State plus the points in this game.
Alan Harris
Texas Tech / Iowa St Over 76
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Texas Tech Red Raiders hit the road to take on the Iowa St. Cyclones at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, IA on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 record to the over in their last five road games and they have gone an excellent 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. They have also gone up and over the number in 11 of their last 16 games played in the month of November. The Cyclones have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday afternoon as they have gone 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games where they faced a team from the Big 12 and they have gone an impressive 6-2 to the over in their last eight games overall. Throw in the fact that the Red Raiders have gone over the total in 13 of their last 17 games following a game where they allowed 450 yards or more on offense and that the Cyclones are a perfect 7-0-1 to the over in their last eight games following a straight up win, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect this one to turn into a bit of a shootout on Saturday afternoon in Ames.
Jesse Schule
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State +22½
The Spartans have been a major disappointment in the BIG10 this season, but it seems a little out of line to make the Buckeyes a 22.5 point favorite at East Lansing. Ohio Sate is coming off a blowout win at Maryland, but had failed to cover in their previous two road games. They lost to Penn State at Happy Valley, and barely escaped with a 30-23 win over the Badgers in Madison. These two conference rivals have been involved in some good games over the last five seasons. Michigan State won and covered in three of those games, and all five games were decided by less than two TDs. Michigan State put up a good fight in a 32-23 home loss to #2 ranked Michigan a few weeks ago, and last week they pitched a shutout in a blowout win over Rutgers. L.J Scott ran for 122 yards and a TD on 20 carries last week, and he's totaled over 120 yards in three of his last four games. Both teams could be forced to lean on the run this week, with the weather forecast calling for heavy rain and wind on Saturday. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams, and I'll take the points here in this one.
Ari Atari
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Play: Oklahoma -2½
Oklahoma has turned it around this season and they're hot. West Virginia will be ready at home but the clock won't be their friend here with Oklahoma most likely getting out with a strong enough lead to disallow and home team comeback in the closing minutes. -2.5 is a good number here.
Teddy Covers
New Mexico vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -4½
Here’s what Head Coach Mike Bobo said last week, talking about his team’s mentality following the bye: “It’s leadership of your football team, starting with me of setting the tone in today’s meetings and practice. And anything less than a championship practice is not acceptable. And we don’t accept it. I’d rather it come from the players than me. If it’s coming from the players, then we’ve got a chance to finish strong. If it’s coming from us, it’ll be a fight. This is the time of year where you’ve played eight games, you know, it’s a grind. And the mentally tough guys are the ones that are going to push through and have success late in the season. And that’s what I expect out of this football team.” The fact that the Rams came out and played a complete game against Fresno speaks volumes about that leadership.
Colorado State has been a solid under-the-radar moneymaker for their supporters, 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a very sluggish first few weeks. It’s worth noting that they are coming off their three best offensive games of the year, including a pair of blowout wins and a hotly contested, spread covering loss as a road underdog. This team is clearly an undervalued commodity in the markets right now, even after their recent ATS successes.
The Lobos defense is not equipped to shut down Colorado State’s balanced attack. Yes, New Mexico is hot too, winners of five straight games, their longest streak in more than a decade. But every one of those wins (with one exception) came against a true bottom feeder – the Mountain West is not exactly loaded in 2016. I give Bob Davie enormous credit for what he’s been able to accomplish in Albuquerque, but this back-to-back road game situation after a tight, physical three point win at Utah State last week is NOT a good spot for the road underdog.
Colorado State has won each of the last six meetings between these two teams, with the Lobos notching only one pointspread cover in defeat in those games. The Rams put up 58+ twice in the last three years against the Lobos defense – New Mexico can handle one dimensional offenses fairly well, but balanced attacks consistently give them trouble. Look for the Rams to clinch bowl eligibility with a relatively comfortable victory on Sonny Lubick Field Saturday Night.
Oskeim Sports
Texas Tech at Iowa St
Play: Iowa St +3.5
Having lost five of its last six games, the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of Texas Tech, who needs to win its final two games of the regular season to secure bowl eligibility. The Red Raiders are a deflated road favorite coming off a heartbreaking 45-44 loss to Oklahoma State due to a missed extra point at the end of the game.
I never advocate investing on road favorites like Texas Tech, who is allowing 42.1 points and 541 total yards per game at 7.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 6.1 yards per play against a mediocre defense. The Red Raiders' porous defense is also yielding 45.2 points and 502 total yards at 6.7 yards per play and 11.1 yards per point on the road this season.
Overall, Texas Tech is 0.9 yards per play worse than average defensively, which gives the Cyclones' subpar attack a significant 0.6 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage. Iowa State is actually 4-1 ATS at home this season where it's averaging 31.2 points and 412 total yards per game at 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 yards per play.
Indeed, Iowa State is much better at home (+2.0 yards per game) as opposed to on the road (-16.0 yards per game) this season. And, the Cyclones catch a road-weary Texas Tech squad playing for the eighth consecutive week and in its second of back-to-back road games. The latter point is significant in that the Red Raiders are a money-burning 0-6 ATS in the second of consecutive road affairs.
Finally, since 1980, .499 or worse college football teams that won 7+ games the prior year that enter Game 11 off back-to-back losses are just 21-44-1 ATS. With Iowa State standing at 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record.
The Prez
Duke at Pittsburgh
Play: Under 63.5
Two Coastal Division schools take Heinz Field on Saturday for an ACC tilt. The Pittsburgh Panthers (-8, 63.5) host the Duke Blue Devils with a scheduled kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET that will be broadcast on ACC Extra. Both the Panthers (6-4, 3-3 ACC) and Blue Devils (4-6, 1-5) are coming off league upsets. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi and his squad claimed a huge 43-42 victory over CFP ranked Clemson at Memorial Stadium. Duke took down North Carolina, 28-27, to earn their first ACC win of the year.
Narduzzi has been utterly stubborn about how his crew would defend this season. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator plays a strong defensive front with his backfield playing straight up man-to-man regardless of the oppositions talent or situation. The Panthers defensive secondary was blitzed by the Miami Hurricanes two weeks ago, in a 51-28 loss, and while they were not much better this past Saturday against the nationally ranked Clemson Tigers they found a way to overcame Clemson’s 630 total yards and earn the win. Offensively, the Panthers are solid and are balanced in their attack with experience at quarterback (Nate Peterman) and running back (James Conner).
The Blue Devils continue to improve defensively. Like the Tigers, Duke fell at home, 24-21, to a good Virginia Tech squad, but bounced back for a huge 28-27 conference win over the Tar Heels of North Carolina. Duke held the Tar Heels’ offense in check in the second half of last weekend’s win and while they haven’t been successful overall in the win/loss column this season they have been in a position to win more than they have lost in closely contested affair. Head coach David Cutcliffe’s defense has been effective against high profile offensive squads. The Devils have battled to the end against the likes of Louisville, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech this season.
The weather on the east coast this weekend is beginning to represent winter. Heinz Field is expecting cooling temperatures on Saturday afternoon with rain turning to snow and gusty winds up to 20 m.p.h. in a venue that has a history of winds being difficult to navigate. It is one of the more temperamental stadiums in North America resulting in conditions that are tough to pass downfield and position field goal kicks through the uprights.
The UNDER has cashed at a 5-1 clip in the Blue Devils last 6 games overall, Duke is 18-6 to the UNDER in their last 24 games against teams with overall winning records and have seen their final scores come in UNDER the oddsmakers number 16 of their last 22 games coming off a straight up win.
Conversely, Pittsburgh has been involved in high scoring affairs this season. In their 10 contests this year the final score has exceeded the total nine out of ten games while Duke has gone south of the books closing numbers in eight of their ten events.
This ACC tilt won’t draw much national attention but it is important for both squads. The weather will prevent big plays through the air and when the wind is howling at Heinz Field on game day most coaches reinvent themselves making typical field goal range four-down territory.
Otto Sports
UConn vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College -7.5
How many bettors are going to tune into this one as UConn and Boston College hook up for a meaningless late season non-conference game? At 4-6 and with two winnable games remaining (vs. UConn, at Wake Forest) there is hope for a postseason berth for BC. However, the team's morale may be a bit deflated after losing to Louisville and Florida State be a combined score of 97-14. Meanwhile UConn won't be going bowling with just one win in its last seven tries the closest loss was by seven points. And while getting worked over by the Cardinals and Seminoles is somewhat expected, the Huskies suffered a similar far albeit against far weaker competition with back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Temple by a combined score of 62-3. UConn does comes in off a bye week and Sideshow Bob Diaco is saying all the right things about being "refreshed" and "focused."
Prior to their last game, Diaco benched starting quarterback Bryant Shirreffs for freshman Donovan Williams. Williams was able to rush for 66 yards against Temple but showed no ability in the passing game with 69 yards on 21 attempts. I don't blame Diaco for the fresh blood but with an inability to run the football (3.15 ypc), UConn's most effective offense was Shirreffs' arm. He posted a five-game stretch with 255 ypg and while hardly efficient, it gave the Huskies a fighting chance to put points on the board. With a freshman under center, it's now reasonable to think the passing game will take a step back. And when looking at Boston College's defense, stopping the pass has been the unit's biggest issue as it's allowed an ACC-worst 175.4 opposing QB rating. I can't think or a better situation and opponent for BC's defense to shine.
Both programs have a black cloud hanging over them but I feel like this is prime spot to get Boston College's best effort of the season. Laying -7 may seem extreme with such a weak outfit but BC has something to play for while UConn has seemingly packed it in with the bye week doing nothing more than prolonging a truly dreadful season.
Stephen Nover
LSU -14.5
Florida has failed to cover in its three true road games. I see that trend continuing here. LSU is coming on while the Gators are racked by injuries to their skill positions, offensive line and at middle linebacker.
The Gators rank 95th in yards gained per game and are 82nd in scoring. I don't put much stock in Austin Appleby. Look for the Tigers to wear down the Gators with the running of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.
Ed Orgeron has been a coaching upgrade on Les Miles. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and ATS under Orgeron with their lone loss occurring to Alabama in a 10-0 loss.
During the last two weeks, both teams played on the road against Arkansas. LSU beat the Razorbacks, 38-10, while Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10.
Florida is a beat-up team while LSU is who we thought they were. They just needed to change coaches.
Sleepyj
W. Michigan -34
Well the Broncos get zero respect this week...That's a good thing for us...It's tough for these type of teams to make leaps and bound when politics is involved...I'm sure the Broncos are saying how are we behind 5 / 3 loss teams...Well for the record I know this team very well...I've been telling everyone here before they even blew up they were good...Well a 10-0 record proves that and this team is now being disrespected...A slight bump might have made them ease up just a tad....Now talk of them missing a big bowl game will only fuel the fire for the Broncos...HC PJ Fleck is a pretty classy guy who loves his school....He will be the most sought after guy for the next mid level program looking for a HC....Well this is for the team and the coach today....I see a big F-U to the committee in this game...The points won't matter in this game today...I told a few of you that if this line came out 35+, bet it anyway, but now the Broncos will be pissed off......W. Michigan also gets a little spotlight here playing on ESPNU as well....When we break these teams down it's a landslide for the Broncos....Buffalo avg's 17ppg....Broncos avg 44ppg.....Buffalo defense allows 32ppg.....Broncos 19ppg......So we can see the big difference just in that.....W. Michigan does the little things well....Things that teams ahead of them like the Auburn's, Tennessee's, & LSU's of the world fail to do....Sure it's a different conference, but the reason this team is this good is because they play solid football on both sides of the ball and execute well on special teams...They also have a HC who IMO id, take over 2 of 3 guys of the teams I just mentioned....W. Michigan stat wise in the country is bar none at the top across the entire board.
Sacks allowed - #15
Turnovers lost - #1
Def Int's - #22
Off 3rd Down % - #1
Defensive TD's - #10
Fewest Penalties - #17
Kickoff Rtn Ydg - #50
Net Punting - #16
Passing offense - #52
Rushing offense - #13
Punt return defense - #21
PYPC - #28
I can keep going but it's the little things they do well...This team is loaded and facing a team like Buffalo who is a complete flip flop stat wise spells disaster for the Bulls.....When it comes to Comp % QB Zack Terrell is ranked 5th in the nation at 70.3%...He is good guys...His main target who is a sure fire NFL guy and I've been saying this in WR Corey Davis ranks #13 in total yards on only 62 catches this season....He will take any CB deep in the nation and burn them...Guaranteed....He is the #3 WR in the nation right now with 14 TD catches....The running backs are very good as well....Jarvion Franklin could be 2000yd back if he got the touches required...He splits a ton of carries with his backup Bogan who would start for 75% of the teams in the nation....I'm bitching, but making my case why the Broncos will blow the doors off of Buffalo.
Stats don't even compare. Team will be pissed. They haven't ran up a score on a team out of spite. Now they will. This team is for real and they get zero respect....Broncos smash Buffalo 58-6 Final
Sleepyj
Connecticut +7.5
I'll be surprised if this one stays above or even at 7....Who the hell are the Eagles to be laying 7.5 points to anyone...First off this is probable an ugly game to start with. With a total of only 37, grabbing +7.5 is a very good proposition....When you break down both teams UConn has a large majority of the stats in their favor...Both teams stink on offense, but UConn is the better of the two passing the ball...BC is one of the worst passing teams in CFB and I believe they need to do that here to cover this kind of number...Both teams are coming off a loss, but UConn has lost 4 straight....BC off a tough beat down game Vs. FSU won't have them sky high for this one...UConn should be ready to pick up a win to solidify a crappy season...I would say that UConn has the more impressive wins this year between the two teams...I actually like UConn QB Shirrefs and I think he is the difference maker in this game..I'll take +7.5 all day.
Brandon Lee
UL-Lafayette vs. Georgia
Play: UL-Lafayette +23
I had Georgia +10.5 last week in their outright win over Auburn and I said they had a great chance of winning that game. That was a massive win for the Bulldogs to close out SEC play. Most are going to just skip over their game this week against Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Lafayette, but I think there's some great value here on the Ragin' Cajuns. This is a massive letdown spot for Georgia off that big win and their even bigger in-state rivalry game against Georgia Tech on deck. I also think it's a tough matchup for the Bulldogs, especially when it comes to running up the score and covering this big spread. Georgia's offense is really dependent on the running game and that plays right into the hands of Lafayette's defense, which comes in ranked 20th in the country against the run, allowing just 118.3 ypg and just 3.0 yards/carry. I know the Ragin' Cajun's offense isn't great, but I think they can do some damage here with the Bulldogs not 100% locked in on this game. Keep in mind Georgia hasn't won a game all season by more than 14-points and that includes a home game against Nicholls State (won 26-24).
Bryan Leonard
Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +10
After the Chad Kelly injury the Ole Miss faithful were ready to throw in the towell on a disappointing season. But last week Freshman Shea Patterson had an outstanding game against Texas A&M. Now the Rebels faithful and the betting markets are once again buying in on Mississippi. But keep in mind the opposition now has film on Patterson and the going won't be vso easy in week two.
Vanderbilt hasn't permitted more than 26 points to any SEC opponent this season. And while the offense at times has teally struggled, only Florida has shut them down completely. With a 5-4 spread record the Commodores always make it tough on the opposition and we expect this low scoring game to come right down to the wire.
Jimmy Boyd
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -2
Mississippi State’s season is on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Bulldogs need to win out to become bowl eligible. That’s not the only motivating factor here. This is Mississippi State’s final home game of the season, which makes this one mean a little more. I also think we see a big effort after that embarrassing loss to Alabama last week.
I also have major concerns with Arkansas and just what they have left in the tank at this point in the season. The Razorbacks have played 7 ranked teams in their 10 games to this point, including 5 straight. They certainly looked beat up in last week’s game at home against LSU. A spot I thought they would play much better in, given LSU was coming off that crushing loss to Alabama.
I think a big key here is the Bulldogs should be able to get things going offensively. For Mississippi State’s offense to have success, they need to be able to run the football. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is ranked 102nd against the run (217.6 ypg) and are allowing 6.3 yards/carry. The last 4 times the Bulldogs have rushed for 200+ yards, they have scored 47, 38, 56 and 35 points.
Another factor here that I think gets overlooked with Arkansas is this being just their 3rd true road game of the season. Only the second true road game in SEC play. The only previous one came at Auburn, which they lost 56-3.
We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Razorbacks. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a home loss by 14+ points are just 12-36 (25%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Arkansas is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 450 or more total yards in their last game.