Freddy Wills
Duke vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Duke +7½
Both teams come off upset wins, but Duke has an extra two days to prepare here and have a very good head coach in David Cutcliffe especially when they are under dogs. Pitt upsetting Clemson was a huge victory, but looking back at Pitt’s season they really don’t have any huge wins as far as blow outs unless they are playing inferior opponents. One thing they do is give up a lot of yards and I think Duke’s QB Daniel Jones has been impressive throwing the ball and running the ball and this Duke offense is clicking. Jones is even taking care of the ball as Duke has only turned the ball over 5 times in their last 5 games which is huge when taking an underdog like this on the road.
I do like the fact that Pittsburgh’s weaknesses are Duke’s strengths. For instance Duke better at passing the ball and that’s really where Pitt’s weakness is as they give up a lot of passing yards. Duke is also very good on defense stopping the run which is something Pittsburgh prefers to do. The only teams really to run on Duke’s rushing defense has been Georgia Tech and their triple option and Louisville who has an insanely athletic QB in Lamar Jackson.
Marc Lawrence
Indiana vs. Michigan
Play: Indiana +24
Edges - Hoosiers: 4-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 20 points; and 3-0 ATS in Last Road Games. Wolverines: 7-18 ATS as home favorites following a SU favorite loss, including 1-4 ATS as favorites of 24 or more points. With Michigan in a classic ‘bubble burst’ situation and having Ohio State on deck, we recommend a 1* play on Indiana.
Ian Cameron
Navy at East Carolina
Play: Over 66
The first thing bettors must look at for teams facing Navy and its triple option attack is their proficiency or lack thereof at stopping the run. In this instance, East Carolina has been abysmal against the ground game all season long. The Pirates are being gashed against the run on a repeated basis allowing 5.1 yards per carry and over 200 rushing yards per game which ranks 91st nationally. Navy rolled up 45 points and 415 yards on the ground when they faced East Carolina last season. In their last three games, Navy has put up 115 points combined against South Florida, Notre Dame and Tulsa and have gained 342 yards on the ground at 5.9 yards per carry clip. ECU’s defense has been on the field for a whopping 169 plays its last two games and this is not the defense with the personnel nor the freshness required to slow down Navy.
On the flip side, East Carolina has potential to put up their share of points in this game as well. The Pirates offense will be led by either Philip Nelson or Gardner Minshew at quarterback. Nelson was replaced in each of ECU’s last two games due to poor play but has also been battling a shoulder injury that he tried to play through. It is looking more likely that Minshew may be the starter with Nelson sitting out the last couple days of practice. East Carolina has registered 456 total yards per game over their last three contests and they face a Navy defense which has given up 525 total yards per game during that span which comes to an alarming 8.1 yards per play. The over is 4-0 O/U in this series between dating back 2011 and all of those games reached 66 points or more. I expect another high scoring affair on Saturday afternoon.
Drew Martin
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +9
A lot of talk in the media about the SEC West's domination over the SEC East which has been even more pronounced this season. And the gap is more than reflected in the pointspreads with Florida (arguably the "class" of the East) catching +14.5 at LSU, and this matchup, Ole Miss laying nearly double-digits at Vanderbilt. The Rebels have had a rocky campaign that has been littered with upper-tier opponents. Then there was the loss of starting quarterback Chad Kelly who proved to be one of the few elite passers in the SEC. Last week, in a very emotional spot, the Rebels came up with a monster effort (23 points in the fourth quarter) by beating Texas A&M on the road 29-28. Freshman quarterback Shea Patterson threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns as Ole Miss, at 5-5, kept its postseason hopes alive. Now they must hit the road for a second straight week to face a bottom feeder SEC East team and are being asked to win by double-digits. Keep in mind, the week prior, with Kelly, Ole Miss beat now 4-6 Georgia Southern at home by 10 with only a modest 441-401 total yardage advantage. And lastly, let's also not forget that the Egg Bowl is looming next week.
With four wins and two games in which they'll be an underdog, it's a longshot for Vanderbilt to reach the postseason. However, the Commodores continue to show the ability to stick around in games. They've stayed within this number in all six SEC games, including a recent 23-16 loss at Auburn. Obviously all but one of those games came against the East, but this weekend's foe isn't Alabama or even LSU. This is a prime flat spot for Ole Miss and one I recommend taking advantage of.
Rob Veno
UConn vs. Boston College
Play: Boston College -8.5
It started to show up in their Week 3 game at Virginia Tech, it became a little clearer after their Week 6 home game versus Clemson and it’s been ripe for the picking ever since. The it, is the Boston College defense which has two distinct personalities and capitalizing off that knowledge the back half of this season has been extremely easy. BC versus spread offenses with dual threat quarterback is now 0-5 ATS and 4-1 O/U while in their other five games they are 3-1-1 ATS and 0-5 O/U. This week against Connecticut they’ll face one of college football’s most stagnant and vanilla offenses which means the BC defense is in line to have a solid day. In game against teams without the spread & dual threat QB combo, Boston College is allowing an average of 9.2 first downs per game, 49 rushing yards on 1.8 per carry, 134.8 passing yards and 184 total yards on only 3.4 per play. The average score of those games is 27-10 Eagles. Connecticut has scored more than 16 points just 1 time in their last five games and now they are breaking in true freshman quarterback Donovan Williams who had his redshirt tag pulled in the second half last week vs. Temple. The 6-4, 215-pound signal caller is a dual threat but the Huskies labor in their traditional ground oriented system where the play calling has tilted toward the run 54.2%-45.8% but yielded just 3.3 ypc. BC held NC State's Ryan Finley and the Wolfpack’s strong ground attack to 31 rushing yards just three weeks ago so expect them to have a significant advantage here.
What has been dreadful all season long for the Eagles has been their offense which averages just 298.7 total yards per game and 18.2 points. Saturday they’ll face a defense that plays hard every series they are on the field but the results in their last seven games show UConn allowing at least 400 total yards in six of them. The 21-0 final against Temple in their most recent game looks respectable but it needs to be noted that Temple threw two endzone interceptions and lost a fumble on the Huskies 25-yard line. Temple averaged 6.7 yards per play in that game with 216 rushing and 215 passing. BC is an inefficient offense so it’ll be interesting to see if they can move the ball decently here.
There are situational arguments for each team in this one. For Connecticut, they are off of a much needed bye week. They had played 10 consecutive weeks and were wearing down so the break came at a great time for them. It also gave new starting QB Williams more time to get comfortable in the offense with the 1’s. On the Eagles side, bowl eligibility is within their reach. At 4-6 they need to win this game and then close with a victory at Wake Forest to get to six. It’s interesting to note that all four of BC’s wins have come at home and by at least seven points which is the current line in this contest. The quote coming out of the bye this week from Connecticut's Bob Diaco “Now right now we are not a winning team but these habits are winning habits and we are not going to change them” is pretty telling. UConn spent the entire bye work working on grass roots fundamentals and we are in the 11th game of the season. Boston College has been a major disappointment again this season and head coach Steve Addazio seems to be at a point of total frustration but this sets up really well for one of their better showings of the season.
Tony George
Washington State vs. Colorado
Play: Washington State +6
The line has moved to 5.5 here with the Buffalo’s favored at home. I have to tell you this is a wild card game and matchup for sure with lots of fireworks on offense expected, but with this number over 3 has value with a for sure Live Dog scenario, and the Cougars who have ripped off 8 straight wins can pile it on the scoreboard in a hurry. In their 8 game run the Cougars have posted up 46 ppg on offense and winning by an average of 25 ppg. I cannot trust the Buffs to cover a number here, despite the fact they might win, this may be a 3 point outcome one way or the other.
Cougar QB Falk for WSU has 3600+ yards passing, 73% completion rate (leads the nation) and 33 TD’s, and despite his second leading WR out, WSU has plenty of weapons at the WR position. Sefo Liufau at QB for Colorado is no slouch and this is the best Buff team in years dating back to their Big 12 days, but a huge win over lowly Arizona last week did not impress me as much as WSU has all year since their 0-2 start. Mike Leach can coach a big game, and I like their offense to put up plenty and cover this number. An outright win would not surprise me.
Scott Spreitzer
Indiana vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -24
This line opened as high as 28 in Las Vegas. The number was adjusted when it was announced QB Wilton Speight would miss the rest of the regular season with a collarbone injury. HC Jim Harbaugh said as recently as Thursday morning that Speight may play. However, we highly doubt he'll be able to take the field on Saturday. John O'Korn is likely to start this week's game with Indiana and we believe the Wolverines' offense is in quality hands. As Harbaugh said, O'Korn exudes confidence and his teammates believe he can get the job done. You'll remember he threw for more than 3,100 yards in his first season at Houston, with 28 TD passes and 10 INTs. He's obviously surrounded by better talent than he was then, including no less than four RBs who have rushed for at least 405 yards each, led by De'Veon Smith, who has rushed for nearly 600 yards on the season. The U-M defense is the stingiest in CFB in total yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game. They're also strong against the run and we note that the Hoosiers are on a 2-9 ATS slide against teams that allow no more than 3.25 yards per carry. Indiana has allowed 108 points in their last three games, but won two contests thanks to the offense. We suspect they'll be unable to "keep up" in this one. Michigan enters on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss. And while they have Ohio State next, last week's loss to Iowa, and the fact they're still in the top-4 in the playoff rankings should keep them focused on the task at hand. I believe the line has been over-adjusted and I'm laying the points with Michigan on Saturday.
Chip Chirimbes
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State -1½
As any team felt the loss of their quarterback than the Mississippi State Bulldogs who lost Dak Prescott to the NFL (how's he doing') and have moved on the the running game. They average 214 rushing yards and will have an opportunity to move the ball against a defense that allows 6.34 yards per carry. Arkansas opened 3-0 but have failed to win back-to-back games since and were just smashed by LSU although all four of their loss have come against ranked teams. The Bulldogs have won the last four in this series and are 11-3 ATS after a loss since 2013.
Matt Josephs
UMass vs. BYU
Play: Over 57
It's a battle of Independents with BYU hosting UMass. The Minutemen have had awful luck on defense allowing around six yards per play and over 30 points per contest. The good thing for them is that their passing attack led by Andrew Ford has shown some glimpses. They have scored 28 points or more in four straight games and BYU's defense certainly can be leaky. The Cougars will be able to keep up in any shootout as they've scored 27 points or more in six of their last seven games. Now the Cougs are on a five game under streak, but I think they won't take this one as seriously. UMass has gone over in 18 of their last 25 games as an underdog.
Sean Murphy
Oregon / Utah Under 70½
While most are expecting a shootout in this matchup on Saturday, I believe the total will prove to be too high.
Oregon has endured an awful season. The Ducks offense has actually gotten worse as the season has gone on, and I don't see this as a favorable matchup, noting that Oregon scored just 20 points at home against Utah in last year's meeting. Of course, that was a much stronger offense.
The Utes are coming off a blowout win on the road against a hapless Arizona State squad last week. I do expect them to face some resistance here, and I think it's important to keep in mind that Utah hasn't exactly been an offensive juggernaut this season. Even against a weak defensive squad like Oregon, there's no guarantee the 'good' Utes offense shows up.
I don't believe the Utes are interested in getting involved in a shootout here. They should be able to control proceedings for most of the game and that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest than the oddsmakers are calling for.
Bill Biles
Maryland vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -13.5
Maryland has dropped 5 of 6 games and face a Nebraska team that will stick to the gameplan of running the ball. The last six Big Ten teams have averaged 301.8 rushing yards with 23 touchdowns against the Terrapins. Nebraska wins this one.
Jim Feist
USC / UCLA Under 52½
USC has won six in a row, its latest a 26-13 road victory against then-No. 4 Washington, lifting the Trojans back into the coaches poll. The USC run defense has surrendered a combined 102 yards on 57 carries in the last two games. USC is 12-3-1 under the total on natural grass, 20-7-1 under in Pac 12 games. UCLA has QB injuries and is 7-3 under in Pac 12 contests. UCLA is ranked 127th out of 128 Division I teams in rushing. The Under is 23-8-1 in the Bruins last 32 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. And the Under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings.
Kyle Hunter
Indiana vs. Michigan
Play: Under 53½
The Michigan Wolverines lost last week in Iowa City, and they should get back on track Saturday in Ann Arbor. Indiana is definitely an improved team. The Hoosiers have made great strides on the defensive side of the ball.
Penn State ran for only 77 yards on 45 carries against this Indiana defense last week. Indiana allowed 5.22 yards per carry last year, but they are giving up only 3.74 yards per carry so far this year.
Michigan ranks first in the nation in total defense. The Wolverines are well-balanced on this side of the football, and Indiana isn't likely to be able to put too many long drives together.
A big key in this game will be the weather. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph. There will be a mix of rain and snow at times during the game. This means more running the football and conservative play calling. Take the under here.
Jack Jones
Stanford vs. California
Play: Stanford -10.5
The Stanford Cardinal have really turned their season around. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They won 34-10 at Arizona as 3.5-point favorites and 52-27 at Oregon as 3-point favorites. Their only non-cover was a 26-15 win over Oregon State as 16.5-point favorites in which they were stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 late, otherwise they would have covered that game as well.
California has gone the other direction. The Golden Bears are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, and they haven't even been competitive in the losses. They fell 24-45 at USC as 20-point dogs, 27-66 at home to Washington as 19.5-point dogs, and 21-56 at Washington State as 17.5-point dogs.
The difference in this game is that Stanford is going to be able to keep scoring even when it gets a big lead because California simply cannot stop anyone. The Golden Bears have allowed 45 or more points in five consecutive games. They are giving up an average of 55.7 points and 662.3 yards per game in their last three games alone.
Christian McCaffrey is going to be in for a career day against this California run defense. The Golden Bears allow 283 rushing yards per game and a whopping 6.2 yards per carry this season. They gave up 474 rushing yards to Oregon State, 398 to USC, 287 to Washington and even 254 to a Washington State team not known for running the ball.
Stanford will be able to get some stop, which is also going to be a difference-maker. The Cardinal have allowed 10, 10, 10, 15 and 27 points in their last five games overall for an average of 14.4 points per game. This defense continues to play better as the season has gone on.
Stanford is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cal. The Cardinal have won five of those six games by at least 13 points. Stanford is 9-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games with a turnover margin of +4 or better.
Mike Anthoy
Oklahoma State vs. TCU
Play: Oklahoma St +4.5
Oklahoma State has to trust the huge talent of their passing game - they have an offense that can really run the score up when feeling confident. Oklahoma State can score the ball very well - as long as Mason Rudolph is making the plays when needed. TCU needs to try and unleash Kyle Hicks and let him pound the ball, and matched up vs a slow front - and a defense that has allowed 4.6 on the ground it is going to be fully expected - but it's Oklahoma State's offense that needs concern here. Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games Oklahoma State wins this one as the underdog