Larry Ness
San Diego State vs. Wyoming
Pick: San Diego State
The Aztecs won their final 10 games of the 2015 season and opened with three wins in 2016, before falling apart in the 4th quarter of an Oct. 2 game at South Alabama. SDSU led 24-21 into the final period but after South Alabama took the lead early in the 4th, a quick series and short punt set up the Jaguars for another TD, less than four minutes later. South Alabama put the game away with an 80-yard ‘pick six’ later in the quarter. SDSU has rebounded since that loss with six straight wins, all in league play and enter with a commanding lead in the West Division of the MWC (in line to defend its MWC title).
Wyoming comes in 7-3 overall, including 5-1 in the Mountain Division, tied with Boise St (which plays Friday at home vs UNLV) and New Mexico, which plays Saturday at Colorado St. The Cowboys shocked the Broncos with a 30-28 home win back on October 29 but this past Saturday lost a triple-OT game to UNLV, 69-66 (third highest scoring game in FBS history). Wyoming allowed a ridiculous 401 yards rushing to UNLV and now faces SDSU, which features Donnel Pumphrey, who leads the nation with 1,779 yards rushing (6.6 YPC / 14 TDs) and sits just 347 yards away from breaking the all-time NCAA rushing record held by Wisconsin’s Ron Dayne (6,397).
Pumphrey turned in another stellar effort in last week’s 46-16 rout of Nevada, gaining 198 yards on 7.6 YPC. Even more frightening is that when Pumphrey needs a blow, there’s Rashaad Penny (784 yards on 7.8 YPC with 9 TDs), who out-did Pumphrey against Nevada, rushing for 208 yards in just 10 attempts! Wyoming has a terrific RB in Brian Hill (1,417 yards on 5.7 YPC with 16 TDs) but the SDSU running game is tough to top. Wyoming is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents 40.4-27.6 PPG but getting past SDSU will be a real test.
After last week’s awful defensive effort (if you’ll pardon the pun), Wyoming is now allowing 33.7 PPG (104th) on the season on 462.6 YPG (108th). In stark contrast, the SDSU defense allows just 15.2 PPG (7th) on 283.3 YPG (5th). The Aztecs have now won 19 of their last 20 games and still have a chance at earning a New Year's Six bowl bid. SDSU cracked the AP top-25 last week but not the CFP rankings. However, Boise St (20) and Western Michigan (21) are no locks to stay where they are. If SDSU wins out (especially if can beat Boise St in the MWC title game), the Aztecs just may be in line for a Cotton Bowl berth.
First things first. The Aztecs have won 17th straight conference games, so what’s one more, “with room too spare!” Lay the points with the road favorite in this one.
DAVE COKIN
WASHINGTON ST AT COLORADO
PLAY: WASHINGTON ST +6
Some big bets on Colorado as the game is supposed to be more meaningful to the Buffs than to Washington State. All I keep hearing is how even if Wazzu loses here, the Washington game next week decides the division.
That’s true, but basically Colorado is in the same boat to some extent, as they will have to beat Utah next week to win the division. If my read is right, Utah wins the division thanks to having beaten USC if it’s a three-time tie.
Regardless, it’s my experience that all these scenarios end up getting way more play from media and fans than the teams themselves. The actual players just want to win and don’t dwell on things they cannot control.
I think this line has now climbed to a point where there’s too much value to pass on from a Cougars standpoint, and I also think you can argue they’re the better team right now. Colorado does play great pass defense to be sure, so this is by no means easy. But at close to a TD, I’ve got to trust my data and I’m taking Washington State.
Bruce Marshall
Hawaii -3
Do they have to play this one? Fresno players seemed to check out for the year in recent 37-0 loss at CSU, though they could also approach this game as an audition for just-hired HC Jeff Tedford. But the only Bulldog win TY was vs. FCS Sac State. Most Hawaii efforts had been good enough, prior to recent blowouts vs. MW heavyweights SDSU & Boise.
Steve Merril
Nebraska -13.5
Nebraska was close to being an official play today, but both teams have injuries to their starting quarterbacks which adds an element of uncertainty to this game. Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong is questionable with a hamstring injury, while Maryland QB Perry Hills is questionable due to a shoulder injury. However, the edge still goes to the Cornhuskers who are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this season, winning by +17.6 points per game, as they should control the line of scrimmage, especially against a weak Maryland defense that is allowing 35.4 points per game and 532 total yards (6.8 yppl) on the road this season while going 1-4 ATS. Maryland has been horrendous against the run, allowing 229 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry in all games this year (versus opponents that average just 174 yards and 4.4 ypr). Those numbers are even worse on the road where the Terps permit 291 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry.
Rob Vinciletti
Navy vs. East Carolina
Play: Navy -9
This is the Hurricane Mathew makeup game that was called off on October 13th. The game wont be too exciting for an East Carolina team that has failed to cover 7 of the last 8 and is 0-3 in last home games. The pirates are 0-6 ats a a dog vs .6660 or better teams and lost and failed to cover both times here in the series. they have the 125th ranked turnover margin and are 0-7 ats in games they lose and are 4-18 ats in conference games. Navy has covered 17 of 23 in road favored games they win. Home teams on a Saturday that are not going bowling and off a straight favored loss at 15 or less have failed to cover 31 of 336 times long term. The Pirates who were smoked here last week by SMU wont be able to stop the vaunted navy ground attack. Play on Navy.
Brandon Powell
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Play: Texas Tech -3
Texas Tech desprately needs a win to try and get their season back on track. The Red Raiders sit at 4-6 on the year and need to win their last 2 games to become bowl eligible. To do that they must beat Iowa State on the road, a team that they have beaten by at least 3, 7 of the last 10 games played. Look for Texas Tech to light up the scoreboard on their way to becoming 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.
Dave Price
Navy/East Carolina Over 64.5
Navy's offensive strength is East Carolina's weakness, while East Carolina's offensive strength is Navy's weakness. That's why we should see plenty of points in this game to get it up and over the 64.5-point total. Navy rushed for 310 yards per game and 5.5 per carry, while ECU gives up 201 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. The Pirates average 359 passing yards per game, while the Midshipmen give up 261 passing yards per game and 8.6 per attempt. The OVER is 4-1 in Navy's last 5 games overall with combined scores of 86, 70, 97, 55 and 82 points. ECU's last two games have seen 86 and 69 combined points. I see no way this one stays under the total.
MMA OddsBreaker
Albert Morales by knockout/TKO
Thomas Almeida is a great offensive fighter, but as we saw in his last bout, his defense is not a strength and neither is his chin. Obviously Almeida will be out for blood this time around, but an increase in aggression also increases his risk of getting flatlined again. In Albert Morales, we have a fighter who displays absolutely zero fear of their opponent and one who will be swinging for the fences from the moment the opening bell hits. While it's not incredibly probable Morales wins the fight, if he does, it's going to be by knockout so I just couldn't resist the Morales by knockout/TKO prop at (+507).
Dr Bob
Buffalo @ Western Michigan
My math model only favors Western Michigan by 31 points but Broncos’ star quarterback Zach Terrell has a score to settle with Buffalo. These teams haven’t met since 2013 and it happened to be in Terrell’s first career start in his freshman season with Buffalo had Oakland Raiders’ star Khalil Mack terrorizing the MAC. The result was a 0-33 shutout loss to Mack and company and Terrell may still remember that and want to run it up. The Broncos are also trying to impress the selection committee to become the highest rank group of 5 team so they can get to a major bowl game. I added a few point to the math projection but the line is inflated so I’ll pass.
Ross Benjamin
Duke @ Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -7
Pittsburgh is coming off a monumental upset at Clemson last week, and did so as a substantial 22.0-point underdog. In case you’re worried about this being a possible letdown spot for the Panthers, consider that Duke is also coming off an upset win over their bitter rival North Carolina. The Blue Devils won that contest 28-27, and did so as a 10.0-point home underdog.
Any home favorite of 7.0 to 22.0, coming off a straight up win as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a conference away underdog of 6.0 or more straight up win, resulted in those home favorite going 17-0 ATS since 2007. The average margin of victory was 21.0 points per game.
Nelly
Michigan State + over Ohio State
There are a lot of interesting scenarios still in play in the Big Ten race but none of the possibilities discussed include Michigan State beating Ohio State, as the Spartans have done in three of the last five meetings. The Spartans have endured a miserable season but Michigan State was up for the home meeting with Michigan a few weeks ago in a very competitive nine-point loss. Last week Michigan State snapped a long skid with a shutout win and the statistics paint the picture of a team with a far better record, particularly in East Lansing. Back-to-back 62-3 wins for the Buckeyes mostly came against back-up quarterbacks and Ohio State mostly struggled in the three games prior to that with two narrow escapes and the loss to Penn State. Certainly the Buckeyes won't take this game for granted but the stakes will be much higher next week for the national showdown with Michigan with two teams in the top three of the playoff rankings. Michigan State has a capable run defense and opponents have thrown for below 60 percent completions against the Spartans as only 27 points per game have been allowed by the defense. Only once all season did the Spartans get out-gained by more than 35 yards as Michigan State had more yards than their opponent in three losses including vs. Wisconsin and Indiana. Michigan State has out-gained its last two foes by nearly 500 combined yards and this is a stiff situational test for the Buckeyes and unquestionably the game of the season for Michigan State in a disappointing overall campaign. Michigan State owns a 35-22-4 home underdog record since 1980 and in the last 35+ seasons Michigan State has been an underdog of 20 or more points just twice, covering both times including this year's game with Michigan.
Bob Balfe
Kansas State +1
Baylor throws a new QB into the fire as Russell is out for the year. Zach Smith is just a freshman and not very mobile either. This Bears team is dysfunctional. Have they thrown in the towel? Bill Snyder is one of the best coaches in the game and will coach his team up to stop the run. Kansas State had two weeks to prepare for this game and there is not many coaches better than Snyder at getting his team prepared to win. I just don’t like the spiral Baylor has been on to keep their heads in a game against a disciplined team.
David Banks
Oklahoma at West Virginia
Pick: Oklahoma -3
Oklahoma has two games remaining to determine whether or not they will win the Big 12 title. It starts this Saturday with West Virginia. The Mountaineers have very quietly gone 8-1. The lone loss was to No. 13 Oklahoma State. West Virginia has done it primarily with defense. The Mountaineers are actually 19 th in the nation in scoring defense giving up just 20.6 points per game in the pass-happy Big 12. Minus their loss to the Cowboys, WVU has not given up over 21 points in a game this season.
The Sooners counter with an offense that is very good. The running game is powerful with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine both back and healthy. Mixon had 124 yards and Perine 100 in last week’s win over Baylor. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 33 touchdown passes and his primary target, Dede Westbrook, has 1,254 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns.
Oklahoma started the season with two losses in its first three games. The Sooners were written right out of the College Football Playoff mix. Now with what happened last week, Oklahoma can play itself right back into the thick of the discussion. Wins over West Virginia on Saturday and then against rival Oklahoma State in the season finale would definitely help.
Harry Bondi
NC State +2
In this ACC match-up, we’ll take the more motivated home dog. The Canes are out of the mix for the ACC Championship and have already secured a bowl bid, so they might just go through the motions here today against an NC State that needs this game to clinch a third-straight postseason invite. Very quietly, the Wolfpack has gone 7-3 ATS this season, including a 3-1 ATS record against winning teams. and dating back the last three seasons they covered a profitable 58% of all games (21-15 ATS). The key to the team’s success has been a rushing defense that has allowed less than 100 yards per game and that will turn the Hurricane offense into a one-dimensional attack here today.
Marco D'Angelo
Kansas St at Baylor
Play: Kansas St -2
Baylor is in Free Fall right now as since starting 6-0 they have lost 3 games in a row getting blowout in back to back weeks.To add to Baylor’s problems QB Seth Russell is done for the year with a fracture. Normally with a program like Baylor you often just see them plug another QB as it is more the system than anything else but they start a freshman Zach Smith making his 1st College start. This isn’t a team that has a lot of character and given all the off field problems Baylor has had hanging over this team and a lame duck coach in Jim Grobe I can’t back this team. With QB Russell now out this team has every reason to toss the towel. The Baylor defense wasn’t stopping anyone when they had something to play for now with it being a lost season I have to back the fundamentally sound WildCats as Baylor has been shredded on the ground the last 3 weeks giving up 257, 431 and 266 yards. Kansas St averages 5.1 yards a carry and doesn’t turn the ball over as in 7 of their last 8 games Kansas St has had 0 or just 1 TO. And if I didn’t already have enough to support taking Kansas St. over the last 5 years when playing off a bye week Bill Synder is 10-0 ATS as he clearly uses the extra prep time to his advantage and a WIN today makes Kansas St bowl eligible.