Brett Atkins
Well, the Buckeyes are back in the "final four" as of this writing, and they are facing a Spartans team that just snapped a 7 game losing streak with a satisfying 49-0 blanking of a bad Rutgers team. That win by Michigan State brought their mark to only 3-7 on the season.
Ohio State will be out for blood today, as Sparty knocked them out of the playoff picture last season with a 17-14 win in Columbus, and while the Buckeyes are rolling right now with back-to-back 62-3 blowout wins over Rutgers and Maryland, consider this....Ohio State does have a rather large game on-deck next week at home against Michigan, and Mark Dantonio has excelled when getting points. Michigan State stands at 11-2-1 in the underdog role since 2012, including a 32-23 home dog cover versus Michigan less than a month ago at Spartan Stadium.
Urban gets his revenge, but Sparty stays inside this roomy home impost.
2* MICHIGAN STATE
River City Sharps
Duke +7.5
Duke travels to Pitt to take on the Panthers off a huge win against rival North Carolina 28-27. Pittsburgh of course is off their biggest win in some time, a major upset of Clemson in Death Valley. So, which team will be able to sustain and move on? We believe in Duke here as they have won 6 of their last 7 ATS and their last 5 in a row. They have only lost 1 game this year by more than 7 and have been very competitive as witnessed by their overall 7-3 record ATS. Pitt is 4-5-1 ATS and only 1-3 ATS at home. We like Duke’s defense a little better here and expect this game to come down to the wire. Not sure Duke can pull out a W, but don’t see them losing by more than 7.
Chris Jordan
My College Football free play for tonight is in the Mountain West Conference, where I'm playing the Over in the Hawai'i-Fresno State contest, in Fresno, Calif. Here we have two crappy football teams, but one with an outside chance at making a bowl game.
At 4-7, Hawai'i can win out - today and next week at home against Massachusetts - and become bowl eligible. That would mean a 14th game on the island, most likely, and that is inspiration enough to run this score up against 1-win Fresno.
The Warriors have lost three in a row, and have been limited to an average of 8 points in their last two. They are dying to erupt offensively, like the team that averaged nearly 36 points during a 4-2 stretch in the middle of the season.
Now, Fresno is looking at this team as one it can beat, and potentially salvage some pride.
The Bulldogs have gone over in six of eight in Fresno, and in 14 of their last 20 overall. Hawai'i has gone high in 12 of 15, and in 19 of its last 26 in November. This one runs high today.
2* Hawaii-Fresno State Over
Bruce Marshall
Arizona at Oregon St.
Play: Oregon St -5.5
Arizona has beaten only Grambling and Hawaii this season, with only a single pointspread W. Oregon State has beaten only Idaho State and Cal (in OT). Lack of consistency at QB is overworking a weak Wildcat defense. Beavers' chances improve if RB Nall (672 YR, 7.2 ypc) is back in action.
Jimmy Moore
Wake Forest +22.5
This is going to be a monumental downer game here for Clemson coming in off of their upset loss last week. Wake has covered their last 5 as double digit home underdogs and Clemson is 0-7 ATS as ACC road favorites of 17 or more points. The Deacons have also covered 5 of the last 7 at home against Clemson. Take Wake and the boatload of points here.
Brad Powers
Nevada +7
We're surprised that Utah St is laying this many points on the road considering they are on a 1-6 SU slide with their only win vs lowly Fresno St. Last week they blew a 21-6 lead vs New Mexico which clinched a losing season for them. The underdog is on a 6-0 run in Utah St games. On the other side, we don't think Nevada QB Gangi is that much of a downgrade from Stewart who is out for the season the last couple of games. However, the markets continue to price like it's a significant downgrade. With this line going to a full "7," we like the home dog on Senior Day.
Chris Jordan
My college basketball freebie is on the Albany Great Danes, who host the Grand Canyon Antelope in an odd preseason game that pits a pair of scrappy mid-mid-majors.
The Danes are playing two games in as many nights, beginning with tonight's game against Grand Canyon, at 10,000-seat Mohegan Sun Arena, home of the WNBA's Connecticut Sun. Tomorrow Albany will play Brown in the same venue.
I think we're going to see plenty of vigor from this team, as it will be pumped to get some momentum going for this two-day run, as part of the eight-team Naismith Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament.
The headline team of the tournament is Duke, which plays Penn State at 12:30 p.m. today. And Albany-Grand Canyon is the nightcap. The Great Danes will not be outdone.
In the first game of the tournament, Albany upset Penn State on the road, 87-81. Granted, they also lost at Cincinnati, 74-51, Monday night. But with this one being close to home, I think the travel factor could effect how the Antelopes play.
Grand Canyon is 0-2, having lost to Penn State and Duke on the road; it will also play Louisville and Arizona, so the Lopes will be looking past the Danes.
Take Albany here.
5* ALBANY
Nelly
Old Dominion -8 over Florida Atlantic
Jason Driskel has had just seven touchdown passes all season but he led two touchdown drives in the final five minutes last week for a stunning comeback win for the Owls. At 3-7 the Owls don’t have much to play for and this home finale will be a great challenge with revenge motivation for the 7-3 Monarchs after a 33-31 defeat last season in Norfolk in the season finale, a game that cost Old Dominion a bowl bid. Western Kentucky isn’t likely to lose but Old Dominion has to feel like it is still playing for the East division title at 5-1 and with a winnable home game next week. The Monarchs have won six of the last seven games with mostly dominant number and double-digit margins of victory in all seven wins this season. The two FBS wins for Florida Atlantic have come against two of the very worst rated FBS teams and the Owls are just 1-12 ATS in the last 13 home games. At home Florida Atlantic has allowed 6.9 yards per play and over 68 percent completions with great struggles against both the run and the pass. The injury report has seven Owls offensive linemen on it as running the ball will be a great challenge for the hosts and Old Dominion seems likely to create some big plays with its pass rush.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Lightning vs. Flyers
Play: Flyers -110
I rode the Lightning to victory at Buffalo on Thursday as the Bolts rallied without Steven Stamkos (expected to be out for 4 months with a knee injury). Tampa Bay did what many teams do in all sports and that's rally in that first game after a star player goes down. However, it always gets tougher on that and defenseman Anton Stralman is doubtful for this game as well. Also, it will be the 4th straight road game for the Lightning and they have won just 1 of 4 (25%) this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. The Flyers are at the other end of the spectrum as they are wrapping up a four game homestand and they want to make the most of it as they have a road trip to Florida coming up next. Philly will certainly "leave it all on the ice" early Saturday afternoon in terms of a supreme effort as they have two off days coming up before that quick 2-game road trip. The Flyers have won 31 of 50 (62%) home games with a posted total of 5.5 goals the past 2+ seasons. The Lightning have yet to have a 4-game winning streak this season and I look for the hungry Flyers to finish off this homestand as they catch the Lightning in a tough spot based on injuries and having to play an early afternoon game that is their 4th road game in 6 days!
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +144 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal played last night in Carolina and fought like hell for 60 minutes in what appeared to be a look-ahead spot. The Habs deserved a better fate last night but they have dished out that same fate dozens of times to others that have outplayed them and lost over the past few years or ever since Carey Price arrived on the scene. Price sat last night but he’ll be back in the net tonight. Fading Price brings risk but the tag here on the Maple Leafs is far too fat to pass up on. Moving forward, tags like this on Toronto will be few and far between.
It is truly remarkable what the “Three Wise Men” have accomplished in such a short time for the Maple Leafs. It’s also remarkable what a difference management makes. While others before them were tearing down the Maple Leafs year after year by way of bad trades, bad judgement or poor recognition of talent, Lou Lamoriello, Brendan Shanahan and Mike Babcock have built a present and future of great potential and promise in the span of 16 months. Toronto leads the NHL in Corsi for per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play. The Maple Leafs have gone from an offensively challenged team last year to one of the most balanced attacks in the game. A guy like Nazem Kadri, who was relied on to produce the past two seasons has suddenly had a big weight taken off his shoulders and he’s now a third line winger that is producing points and chances every game. While the Maple Leafs have some work to do in the defensive end, they are slowly but surely getting better in that department too. Toronto has scored six goals in each of its last three victories over Philadelphia (6-3), Nashville (6-2) and Florida (6-1). The Leafs are rested, confident and in better form than the Habs and in this spot, we expect to get their best effort. Huge overlay.
Edmonton +111 over DALLAS
OT included. The Stars are coming off a 3-2 win in Colorado but it was an unimpressive effort. Dallas took an early 3-0 lead and instead of coasting and putting the banged up Avs away, they allowed Colorado to come within a goal of tying it. The Stars were outshot 36-22 and even coach Lindy Ruff said he was “embarrassed” by the way they played. It was nothing new though, as Dallas has been outshot in six straight games and it has given up 30 or more shots against in each of its last nine games. The Stars have poor goaltending with their team's 3.28 goals against per game being the fourth worst in the league. The Stars are a great fade when favored, as their 3-6 record when favored will attest to.
After a Cinderella start to the season, it looks like the clock has struck midnight on the Oilers. Edmonton has lost five straight and Connor McDavid hasn't scored in 10 games. The five game losing streak combined with McDavid’s funk now provides us with an opportunity that we’re not about to miss. The Oilers are not playing poorly. Instead, they’re not getting their fair share of puck luck. The Oilers opportunities and chances have been just as frequent during this skid as when they were winning. Edmonton has outshot its last four opponents despite losing each game. That includes a 3-2 loss to these Stars eight days ago in which Edmonton fired away 42 shots and had a Corsi advantage of 46-29, and a possession advantage of 61% to 39%. The Oilers are on the verge of breaking out of this mini slump because of the hard work they put in and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. Dallas is a beatable team with weak goaltending and a weak defense which figures to bode well for a hungry Connor McDavid and company.
Winnipeg +145 over BOSTON
OT included. We’ll have plenty to say about the Bruins at a later date or when the time is right but that would not apply here. While we like what we’re seeing from the Bruins thus far, this one is all about playing value. In that regard, Boston has not done enough to warrant this price, nor have they done enough to suggest they are the superior team here. This is not about fading the Bruins. It is all about taking back prices like this on Winnipeg.
The Jets are coming off a 5-2 loss in Philly in what might be one of the more misleading scores of the year. The Jets dominated the first period by outshooting the Flyers 11-4 but Philly scored on its first two shots of the game to take a 2-0 lead into the first break. Winnipeg would go on to dominate the rest of the game too but a victory was not in the cards, as they run into a rarely hot Steve Mason while Connor Hellebucyk was way off his game. Prior to losing to Philadelphia, the Jets defeating Chicago (4-0), L.A. (3-2) and Dallas (8-2) among others and picked up points in seven of eight games. The Jets bring one of the NHL’s best and most dangerous lines to the rink every game. Their defense features a slew of solid, puck moving defensemen that also do a good job in limiting the opposition’s chances. The Jets rank eighth in Corsi against. The Jets have frequently made our slate lately because the market is still unaware of how dangerous this intruder is. Until the market catches up or until the Jets show us something different, we’ll continue to play them when it’s warranted like it is here.
The Real Animal
NC State +2.5
Miami of Florida has six wins and is already bowl eligible, unlike NC State sitting at five wins with a trip to Chapel Hill against their state rival next week. This is their home finale and it’s ‘senior day’ in Raleigh. This is also Miami’s fourth road game in a five-week stretch with an eighth consecutive week of action (bye 9/24). Remember NC State beat Notre Dame here, lost at Clemson by just seven points, and should have defeated Florida State in their last home game with a 469-393 edge in total yards against the Seminoles. I’m still puzzled how you only score 20-points with 469 yards and only one turnover? The Hurricanes have allowed 28 points or more in three of their last four games and might have yielded more to Virginia had it not been for four Cavalier turnovers last week. Either way I can’t get past the Hurricanes losing four straight and failing to reach the 20-point plateau against Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech in consecutive weeks with two of those three games at home. Facing two common opponents this year, Florida State and Notre Dame, Miami of Florida is -118 yards per game while NC State is +81 yards per game. Wrong team favored to me.
Joe Gavazzi
Navy -7
Now that Navy has gotten the inside track for the AAC-West divisional crown, could we expect a letdown against a 3-7 SU E. Carolina team, whom they handled 45-21 last season? Remember, since the beginning of October, Navy has faced 6 quality opponents in Air Force, Houston, Memphis, S. Florida, Notre Dame and Tulsa. Letdown? Sure, IF IT WAS ANYONE EXCEPT NAVY! For, the Middies will simply continue their momentum with their patient and disciplined ways. Senior QB Worth, after biding his time behind QB Reynolds in recent seasons, has begun a post-season roll. Following the Air Force defeat, the Navy option attack has run for over 300 yards against every defense they have faced.
The decline in Greenville has continued even under 1st year HC Montgomery, who appears to have lost control of his team. In-state home victories vs. W. Carolina and NC State provided a 2-0 SU ATS start. Since that time, they have gone 1-7 SU (only victory to lowly UConn) and 2-6 ATS. Facing similar strong rushing attacks such as USF and Tulsa, the Pirates allowed 306 and 345 yards overland respectively. The last 2 weeks, they have tossed the towel, allowing 100 points and nearly 1,100 yards in losses to Tulsa and SMU. Last year, Navy rushed for 415 yards against this defense. What are the chances that ECU, which hasn’t seen another option attack since, will stop them today? Close your eyes!
Utah -14
How the mighty have fallen! An Oregon record of 36-5 SU began to show cracks with a 9-4 SU log last year, as the defense declined to 37/485. That was just the tip of the iceberg. Long gone are the days of QB Mariota, running the offense flawlessly. Yes, the Ducks can still put up points (though only 27 and 20 the last 2 weeks against Stanford and USC). But, they simply can’t outscore the opposition because of a defense that in 6 of their last 7 games has allowed 540 or more yards and who, since conference season has begun, allow every opponent to score 35 or more points. Utah is the perfect opponent to continue that decline. Last year, this well-coached, fundamentally strong team destroyed Oregon (62-20). With RB Williams back in the fold, the Utah ground attack will continue to pound its way to a 6th consecutive game, in which they rush for more than 200 yards. In fact, Utah has outrushed their opponent in 9 of 10 games and you know what that means! Against an Oregon defense that typically allowed 282 RY last week to Stanford and 271 the week before to USC, it means the Utes control the line of scrimmage and the clock in systematically defeating an Oregon team who, after more than a decade of feasting at a post-season party, will be home for the holidays this year.
Tulsa -1
Each week, I isolate a team whose offense has been explosive and consistent all season long. Today’s choice is the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Under 2nd year HC Montgomery and RB Evans, the Hurricanes have been blowing away opponents with regularity. Even in last week’s heart wrenching 42-40 loss to Navy, Tulsa still logged 200 Club numbers for the 4th consecutive week. In doing so, they have put up 566 offensive yards four consecutive times. Under Montgomery, Tulsa is a proven road team who is 8-4 ATS in 2 years. Already this season, they have beaten a team similar to UCF (Memphis) on the road by a score of 59-30. Despite that excellence, this matchup with UCF is a battle of “also rans.” Each of these teams is 4-2 SU in their respective AAC divisions on the outside looking in. The question for Tulsa is whether they can bounce back from that Navy defeat to get motivated for a matchup against a team they beat 45-30 last season. My answer to that is a resounding yes! At least on the offensive side of the football! This Tulsa offensive machine is clearly purring. The ego and pride of these offensive players will be looking to continue their onslaught of opposing defenses. In short, they will be operating under the concept of IF IT AINT BROKE, DON’T FIX IT. As such, there is a good chance for them to continue their 200 Club onslaught in outgaining their 5th consecutive opponent.
Today’s opponent is one of the biggest turnaround stories on the CFB landscape. Last year’s HC George OLeary had grown long in the tooth and was beyond his expiration date. The result, fueled by numerous injuries, was a 0-12 SU, 2-9 ATS mark (after a record of 31-9 SU the previous 3 years). It was an ideal spot for 1st year HC Frost (former Nebraska QB and Oregon Asst.) to come in and pick up the pieces. That he has done with a turnaround that has seen the Knights go 6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS. That is not a surprise, considering how their Power Rating had been beaten down by the end of last year. But, a closer look inside the numbers sees that although this team has a winning record, both SU and ATS, THIS BALLOON IS ABOUT TO BURST. The reason for that is that THEY HAVE BEEN OUTGAINED IN ALL 6 CONFERENCE CONTESTS, INCLUDING EVEN THE LAST 2 WEEKS AGAINST SUB.500 TEAMS, Cinci and Tulane - a combined 1-11 SU in league play. They won these two games by a combined 61-9 in large part because of a combined (+6) net TO margin. Talk about a balloon that is about to burst!