Free Picks for Saturday, November 26th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Jesse Schule
Michigan State at Penn State
Pick: Michigan State
The Spartans are a lot better than their 3-8 record, and they proved that by nearly upsetting the Buckeyes at home last week. Four of their eight losses have come by four points or less, and they've led in every single game they've played so far. Running back L.J. Scott has carried the offense, running for 282 yards and two TDs on 39 carries the last two weeks. We could see both teams lean on the run this week when they play at Penn State. The weather forecast is calling for wind and freezing cold temperatures, similar to last week's game versus the Buckeyes. The Stakes couldn't be any higher for the Nittany Lions, who can clinch a spot in the BIG10 Championship game with a win, and a Michigan loss to Ohio State. Penn State's defense has surrendered just 14 points in it's last two home games, and they've held the Spartans to less than 20 points in three of the last five head to head meetings. Previous meetings have gone over the total at a rate of 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, but the number in this game is far higher than it was in any of the last seven meetings. I expect a close, low scoring game in bad weather this weekend.
Allen Eastman
Clemson (-24) over South Carolina
I think Clemson is going to win this one by around 40 points. They are way too much for rebuilding South Carolina. The Gamecocks have been tough at home against some weak competition. But they have only scored a combined 31 points in three road games at Florida, Kentucky and Miss State. This is only USC's second road game since way back in September! They have had a very lucky schedule. So even though they have won four of five it has come against bad competition and at home. Clemson is one of the best in the country. They are trying to lock down their spot in the college football playoff. They don't want to slip up here against their rivals. South Carolina has dominated this series over the past several years, going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. But I think that the Tigers are going to turn that around and score a big blowout in this one. Play Clemson and lay the points.
Jason Sharpe
USC (-17) over Notre Dame
The USC Trojans have been one of the best teams in CFB the past two months as they not only are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games but are also 6-1 against the spread with their lone failure to cover a point spread coming in a 4-point win as a 5-point favorite against a Top 10-ranked Colorado team and won 5 of those 7 wins came by over 3 touchdowns. The Trojans will be looking for some revenge here in this one as they face a Notre Dame team that beat them last year and in 3 of the past 4 seasons overall. The Irish are a total mess right now as they crawl to the finish line of an unbelievably dismal 4-7 season overall. Notre Dame has not shown much of anything this year as 3 of those 4 straight-up wins came against opponents that they were favored to beat by two touchdowns or more. What makes this awful Irish season even more of a head scratcher is the fact this has also been one of the easier ND schedules in quite some time as this game here will only be their third true road game this season overall.
Strike Point Sports
Pittsburgh (-24.5) over Syracuse
Sorry 'Cuse fans, but the season is not going to end well for Syracuse. After getting beat badly by NC State, and then Florida State last weekend, the Cuse are going to get crushed versus Pittsburgh. The Panthers have an outstanding offense, and they will put up points a plenty versus the Orange. The only drives that aren't long and taxing on the Orange defense will be when James Conner breaks a long run and scores quickly. This is going to be a long, long afternoon for the Syracuse faithful that make the trip to Pittsburgh. The Syracuse offense just won't generate enough of an attack to keep this game close as the Panthers continue their winning ways versus the Orange. Lay the big number as Pittsburgh wins 44-13.
Rob Veno
Boston College at Wake Forest
Play: Wake Forest -3
The obvious reaction to this game is a situational one which would suggest Boston College plus the points because a win will make them bowl eligible. After blowing out Connecticut 30-0 last Saturday, the Eagles find themselves 5-6 which will have them motivated and focused this weekend. The question is, are they good enough to get the job done? Last week once again I outlined their Jekyl and Hyde defensive efforts which totally coincide with the style of opposing offense. This week again favors success rather than failure for the BC stop unit since Wake Forest is a methodical offense sans dual threat quarterback and high powered spread scheme. After stifling the pedestrian UConn offense last week BC has now allowed nine first downs per game, 42 ypg rushing on 1.6 per carry, 133.5 ypg passing, and 175.5 ypg on only 3.3 per play against methodical/traditional systems. The average score of those games is 28-8.5 in favor of the Eagles. Sure, Boston College played a Huskies team with a true freshman quarterback in his second start, but they still dominated. Wake Forest’s offensive identity is one Boston College has had success against all season.
However, the Eagles offense remained mediocre at best last week gaining just 337 total yards and scoring 10 of their points off pick six and field goal producing drive after a takeaway set them up at the Connecticut 29-yard line. After seeing Louisville and Clemson the past couple of weeks and covering each of those games, Wake Forest will be elated to see this BC offense. The Demon Deacons defense has been strong all season long allowing just 22.3 ppg and should also have success in this contest. Offensively with quarterback John Woolford the offense has been spotty at best gaining more than 369 total yards just once and throwing for 200 yards only twice.
Despite their offensive struggles, Wake Forest has been in this role of single digit home favorite three times this season and they’ve gone 2-1. Each team has a strong pass rush with BC recording 35 sacks and WF 32 but partly because of quarterback Patrick Towles' mobility, the Eagles have allowed only 17 while Wake has given up 32. Wake Forest already has its bowl bid locked up but this is the team's home finale which figures to have them cranked up. Last year, Wake Forest went up to Chestnut Hill and beat Boston College 3-0 in a game where they only managed five first downs and 142 total yards. My power ratings suggest Wake should be -4.5. Not sure Boston College is good enough to win just because they need to and I feel like Wake will close their regular season with a solid home performance.
Chris Jordan
One night after getting their hat handed to them inside Madison Square Garden, the Portland Trail Blazers head to Cleveland for a date with the NBA defending champion Cavaliers. The disappointing start to the 2016-17 campaign continues tonight, as LeBron James and company will hand it to Portland in a blowout win.
The last time these two met as Dec. 26, 2015, when the Cavaliers went into Portland, and the Blazers named it in a 105-76 victory. A 29-point loss, even a year after the fact, can linger. Revenge will also be on the brain.
All Cavs.
2* CLEVELAND
Brad Wilton
Wednesday comp play will be the hot Grizzlies over the hot Sixers.
Philly has put together a 2-game win streak, and Joel Embiid sure looks like he was worth the wait for the Philly faithful. However, Embiid is still limited as to the minutes he plays, and Philadelphia is still without Simmons and Noel, and Okafor just left the last game with an undisclosed injury.
Memphis comes to the City of Brotherly Love having won and covered 5 in a row, and the Grizzlies are also on a 7 game series win streak with a 4-2-1 spread mark in those 7 victories.
76ers finally have a light at the end of the tunnel, but the fact is, they are still at the very start of this long, dark tunnel.
Go with Memphis to roll to win and cover # 6 in a row.
5* MEMPHIS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Wednesday is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points against the struggling Miami Heat, who have nagging injuries to deal with, and will continue to struggle with a loss in Motown.
Detroit (6-9) is 5-2 at home this year, and actually has a better record than the Heat (4-9) at the moment. Miami just lost in Philadelphia two nights back, and now plays its third road game in five nights, after winning in Washington on Saturday.
This is a great spot for the Pistons to snap a four-game skid, after losing in New York, Cleveland and then at home versus Boston and Houston - the team's first only losses in its venue.
Take Detroit tonight.
3* PISTONS
Brett Atkins
Wednesday night comp play is the Thunder and Kings to head Over the total in Sacramento.
Oklahoma City just played their 3rd straight Over last night in Los Angeles against the Lakers, and OKC happens to be on an overall 6-2 Over run their last 8 games played.
Sacramento had their 3 game Over streak snapped earlier this week against Toronto, but I expect them to get settled in to a higher-scoring game tonight versus the Thunder, as each of the last 3 series meetings between the teams have played Over the posted price.
With Oklahoma City on court last night, I expect this one to be a looser, free-flowing game tonight against the Kings.
Thunder-Kings Over the total.
2* OKLAHOMA CITY-SACRAMENTO OVER
Brandon Lee
Kansas vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -26
I have no problem laying this big number on the Wildcats at home against rival Kansas. The Jayhawks pulled off a massive upset at home last week, taking down Texas 24-21 as a 23.5-point favorite and are now in line for a massive letdown. Keep in mind this is still the same Kansas team that lost by 27 at West Virginia, 53 at Oklahoma, 24 at home to Oklahoma State, 42 at Baylor and 36 at Texas Tech. Kansas State isn't a flashy team and not elite by any means, but they also don't look past any team. The Wildcats will enjoy nothing more than laying it on the Jayhawks and that's exactly what they have done in years past. Kansas State is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings against Kansas, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings by at least 31 points.
Scott Spreitzer
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia Tech +4
Georgia heads into their in-state rivalry game riding a 3-game winning streak to stretch their record to 7-4. But the offense leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 95th through the air and 94th in total yards per game. They're one of the lower scoring teams in the nation, averaging less than 24 ppg. We know what Ga Tech will attempt to do, run the football as much as possible and we don't believe UGA will offer the kind of resistance it would take to win by margin. In fact, we like the fact we're getting more than a FG with the side we have as the higher rated team. Two of the last three meetings have gone to OT and the biggest margin of victory in those three games was seven points. Ga Tech won by six two years ago and UGA won by six in 2015. We believe it's the Jackets turn in 2016 and I'm recommending a play on Ga Tech plus the points.
Chip Chirimbes
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
Play: Minnesota +15
Wisconsin still believe it has an outside chance to get to the four-team College Football Playoff and a win here will send them into the Big-Ten Conference Championship game. At 5-3 in the conference Minnesota still has a chance at the share of the league crown as they fight for the Paul Bunyan axe. Wisconsin has won the last 12 meetings and still trail the all-time series by one game. The Golden Gophers have enough offense to keep this one close.
Dave Price
Boston College vs. Wake Forest
Play: Boston College +3
Boston College came through with its best performance of the season last week. The Eagles thumped Connecticut 30-0 at home while limiting the Huskies to just 121 total yards and forcing four turnovers. They kept their bowl hopes alive and are 5-6 on the season needing one more win to get to a bowl. Wake Forest is already going to a bowl at 6-5 on the season. After back-to-back blowout losses to Louisville and Clemson, I think this is a tough spot for the Demon Deacons as they won't be nearly as excited to play Boston College as they were for those two previous opponents. And Wake Forest has a terrible offense similar to the one that Boston College faced last week in UConn. The Demon Deacons only average 19.7 points and 309 yards per game this season. These are the type of teams that the Eagles own. The road team has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. Bets against home teams with a poor offense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after 7-plus games, after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS over the last 10 years.
Jim Feist
Utah State vs. BYU
Play: Under 54
It's going to be cold and windy for this one in Provo, not ideal conditions for offense. Utah State heads out on the road with an offense ranked #80 in the nation in yards and a weak passing attack. On the road, the Aggies are averaging 21.2 points and the team is 18-8 under the total on natural grass. Brigham Young is home with a strong defense, plus-12 in turnover margin, including 18 interceptions by the defense. BYU has allowed 3, 7 and 9 points the last three games. BYU is 20-8 under the total after getting 200+ yards rushing in their previous game and the under is 7-2 when these rivals clash.