Michael Alexander
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -24½
Syracuse had high hopes this season following the hiring of Dino Babers from Bowling Green, but as it is turning out, there is a lot more work to do with this squad then thought. Their top player, QB Dungey, had been on the sidelines with a concussion over the last 3 games. When playing, he had 298 passing yards per game. Since he's not playing take all of that production out of the Syracuse offense and you're left with the 122nd-ranked running game, and a defense that has given up 45 points per game in the last 3 weeks). Pittsburgh comes into this one after total domination of an up and coming Duke team, by scoring 2 touchdowns in each quarter of that 56-14 rout. The Panthers also own the 4th best rushing defense. This one is a no brainer!
Jack Jones
Michigan vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -6½
Ohio State has owned Michigan in recent years and I feel that will be the case again Saturday. The Buckeyes have gone 11-1 in their last 12 meetings with Michigan straight up. I realize that the Wolverines have kept games close, going 12-6 ATS in the last 18 meetings, but there actually hasn’t been an upset in the series in the past 11 years.
One of my favorite trends in this game is that Urban Meyer is 8-0 ATS in his last eight when either a single-digit favorite or an underdog. You just rarely find the Buckeyes in this price range, and I think there’s clearly some value here getting them as less than a TD favorite in a game they likely win by double-digits.
Having home-field advantage is absolutely enormous. The Buckeyes are are 6-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by an average of 42 points per game. They are also outgaining foes by an average of 305 yards per game at home.
I think Michigan is a fraudulent team and isn’t as good as the No. 3 ranking. The Wolverines haven’t fared well in their last two road games. They only won 32-23 at Michigan State as 24.5-point favorites while losing 13-14 at Iowa as 24-point favorites. They only outgained those two teams by six total yards combined.
The second huge advantage for the Buckeyes is at the quarterback position. Backup John O’Korn did not play well in his first start against Indiana last week, going just 7-of-16 for 59 yards in the 20-10 win. It’s clear that Jim Harbaugh does not trust him too much, and O'Korn is going to have to make some plays through the air to have any chance of hanging with Ohio State.
Conversely, the Buckeyes have one of the best quarterbacks in the country. J.T. Barrett is completing 63.4 percent of his passes with a 24-to-4 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 722 yards and eight scores. His dual-threat ability and experience in big games like this is the reason Ohio State has a huge advantage.
Michigan is 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more against a conference opponent over the last three seasons. The Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game on the season over the last three seasons. Urban Meyer is 17-4 ATS vs. teams who outscore opponents by 17 or more points per game on the season in all games he has coached. The Buckeyes are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt +7½
Love the value here with the Commodores catching over a touchdown at home against the Volunteers. Tennessee comes into this game off a 63-37 win and cover over Missouri as a 17-point favorite. They had thought that performance would have them tied back on top the SEC East with Florida, as they were expected to lose at LSU. That didn't happen, as the Gators upset the Tigers and now the Volunteers are forced to face the reality of failing to win the division.
Going from thinking this game would be for a spot to play in the SEC Championship Game, to a contest that means absolutely nothing to the Volunteers is a tough hand to be dealt and I don't think Tennessee is going to show up for this game. On the flip side of things, this game means everything to the Commodores, as they sit at 5-6 and need a win to become bowl eligible for the first time under head coach Derek Mason.
What a lot of people don't realize with Vanderbilt, is just how well they have been playing. Out of their 6 losses, 5 have come by single-digits. They also have impressive wins over the likes of Western Kentucky, Georgia, and most recently Ole Miss. Add in this being a night game (same spot as last week against the Rebels) and I think there's a great chance the Commodores win here outright.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
Play: Minnesota +15
Badgers: 2-5 ATS as double-digit conference home favorites. With Minny playing with 10-point loss revenge from last season, look for them to improve on their jaw dropping 13-0-1 ATS mark as conference dogs of 4 or more points here today. We recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
Mike Anthony
UCLA vs. California
Play: California +3
One of the things California has done well - was make their scoring game a great piece of their process - with their attack in the air and its big play ability - it is going to be a matchup problem for the DBs of UCLA. UCLA will struggle with getting the LBs of California all turned around, when Devante Downs comes out of the 2nd level he cause problems. UCLA has had a very tough schedule - they are tired and after the beating last week vs USC the team and defense is exhausted. Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record California wins this one at home behind their speed on offense.
Larry Ness
Massachusetts vs. Hawaii
Pick: Hawaii
Head coach Nick Rolovich’s first season at Hawaii has been one of ups and downs. The Rainbow Warriors opened 1-3, beating only UT-Martin, an FCS school. However, Hawaii would win three of its next four to even its record at 4-4. That 3-1 stretch included a 34-27 OT win at Air Force, a game in which Hawaii was a 17-point underdog. Three straight losses followed the Air Force win (to New Mexico, San Diego State and Boise State, three pretty good teams) but the Rainbow Warriors bounced back by eking out a 14-12 win at Fresno State last Saturday on the road.
Hawaii gets a 13th game late Saturday night, when 2-9 UMass visits “paradise” in the first-ever football meeting between the two schools.UMass’s season started with a rainy-day 24-7 loss in “the Swamp” to the Florida Gators on Sep 4th and things never got that much better. The Minutemen’s only two wins came 21-13 over FIU on Sep 17 and 34-10 against Wagner on Oct 29 . Last weekend, UMass fell to BYU, 51-9.The Minutemen are averaging just 21.8 PPG (114th) on 345.9 YPG (115th), while allowing 34.5 PPG (107th) on 450.3 YPG (100th).
Inserting Dru Brown as the team's starting QB after the team's slow start was a plus for Hawaii, as he’s thrown for 1,903 yards while completing 60.7% The running game is led by Diocemy Saint Juste (714 yards on 5.7 YPC) and Paul Harris (537 yards on 7.0 YPC)) but while those guys gain most of the yards, they’ve each scored just twice. Rather, it’s Steven Lakalaka (410 yards on 4.2 YPC) who gets most of the glory, with 12 rushing TDs! Hawaii’s defense stinks, allowing 37.2 YPG (116th) on 455.1 YPG (104th) but can the Minutemen take advantage?
My bet says N-O! UMass is 0-5 SU on the road, losing on average by 21.2 PPG. Lay the points.
Steve Merril
Northwestern -17
This is an important game for Northwestern as they need a win to become bowl eligible. They will be facing a poor Illinois squad that is just 3-8 SU this season and has been terrible offensively on the road, averaging just 12.7 points per game on just 240 total yards and losing by an average of -19.0 points away from home. Illinois has a horrible passing offense which makes it difficult for them to play from behind. The Illini are averaging just 5.7 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 6.9 ypp). They will now be facing a solid Northwestern defense that is permitting just 22.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average 28.1 ppg and 5.7 yppl). The Wildcats have allowed only 17.2 points per game on 5.2 yards play at home this year.
Rob Vinciletti
Pistons vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -4
The Thunder have 16 point loss revenge against Detroit and they are 9-0 ats as a home favorite of less than 14 with no rest off a road game. In fact over the last few years any team playing in Ok. City with no rest off a home spread win are 0-10 ats. The Pistons are 0-4 at on the road with no rest off a home spread win and 1-7 ats on the road this year. The Pistons have failed to cover 8 of 11 vs teams who scored 99 or more per game. The winning team in Piston games this year is a perfect 17-0. Look for the Thunder to serve up some revenge tonight.
Matt Josephs
Kansas vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas State -26
The Jayhawks are coming off their first Big 12 win of the season and should get demolished in this one. They lost by 27 at West Virginia, 53 at Oklahoma and 42 at Baylor. The Wildcats are shutting teams down defensively especially at home. They are also finding their groove offensively scoring 110 points in their last three games. The Jayhawks defense has been gashed away from home as well allowing 153 points in those games. KSU has covered in nine of their last 11 home games in this series winning the last two games 45-14 and 51-13 overall. I think this one's ugly and a loss for KU.
Ben Burns
Knicks vs. Hornets
Play: Over 207
These teams were involved in a very high-scoring game yesterday. NY eventually prevailed 113-111. As 16 of those points came in OT, the final combined score of 224 is indeed a little misleading. Off such a result, many handicappers have a natural tendency to want to "go the other way" with the total the next day. After all, its unlikely that today's rematch will again go to OT. However, in this case, I believe that we may well see more "regulation" points than we did yesterday.
The Hornets entered yesterday's game both scoring AND allowing more points here at home, than on the road. As for the Knicks, they entered yesterday's game allowing "only" 101 points at home. I say "only" as they're allowing a whopping 112.5 on the road.
The last time that NY played the second of b2b games, the final combined score was 231. The time before, they combined with Toronto for 225. In fact, in three b2b situations this season, the Knicks have allowed 118, 118 and 119 points. The last time that the Hornets played the second of b2b games, they combined with 237 points.
With the O/U line currently a little lower than it was for yesterday's game, I feel we're getting fair value. In what could be another high-scoring affair, take a look at the "Over."
Kyle Hunter
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Over 53
The Tennessee Volunteers defense has become a sieve of late. Tennessee allowed 443 yards rushing against Kentucky two weeks ago (8.1 yards per carry). They then turned around and allowed 420 yards rushing against Missouri last week (6.3 yards per carry). Missouri racked up 740 total yards of offense in that 63-37 loss.
Vanderbilt isn't a good offense, but I think the Commodores can have success running the football against the Volunteers. It isn't like Tennessee has only been giving up big yardage against elite offenses. Everyone has been having success against Tennessee of late.
The Vanderbilt defense isn't as good as it looks on paper. The Commodores are actually 73rd in the nation in yards per play allowed at 5.77. That is behind teams like Oregon State, North Texas, and SMU.
Tennessee still has a very good offense with Josh Dobbs at the helm. The Volunteers scored 53 points in their win over Vanderbilt last year. They should have plenty of success once again.
This total is a few points too low. Take the over.
Bruce Marshall
Charlotte at Tex San Antonio
Pick: Charlotte
After a brief midseason rally, Charlotte running a bit low on petrol, with star RB Phillips held somewhat in check by Rice & MTSU. But 49ers have SU wins in their last three as road dog. UTSA gets bowl-eligible for first time with win, but HC Wilson has had to switch to Sam Houston transfer QB Johnson off bench to help ignite Roadrunner "O" past two weeks.
Ross Benjamin
Oregon @ Oregon State
Play: Oregon State +3
Oregon State is coming off a confidence building 42-17 home blowout win over Arizona in their previous games. The victory improved the Beavers record to a still undesirable 3-8 this season. However, they’ve gone a profitable 8-3 ATS in those contests. Conversely, Oregon comes off an 30-28 upset win over Utah, and did so as a 13.5-point road underdog. Despite that win, the Ducks have gone a dismal 2-7 over its last 9 games.
Any home team (Oregon State) coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, versus an opponent (Oregon) coming off a conference win as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those home teams going an incredible 71-4 (94.7%) straight up since 1980. Considering the home team is the underdog in this contest, the straight up numbers take on additional significance.
Ross Benjamin
Wyoming @ New Mexico
Play: Wyoming -3
Wyoming’s amazing turnaround season can become more astounding with a win in Albuquerque on Saturday night. If they’re able to accomplish that feat, the Cowboys will play in the Mountain West Championship game for a first time. I like the balance Wyoming possesses on offense compared to New Mexico’s predominately triple option rushing attack. It’s my professional opinion that will be the deciding difference in this game.
Any road favorite (Wyoming) which average 6.2 or more yards per offensive play, playing after game 6 of the season, and they gained 450 yards or more of total offense in each of its last 2 games, versus an opponent (New Mexico) that defensively allows 6.2 yards or more per play, resulted in those road favorites going 27-1 (96.4%) straight up since 1992. The road teams had a massive +25.7 point per game differential in those 28 contests.
David Banks
Florida @ Florida St
Pick: Florida +7
While head coach Jimbo Fisher and the Seminoles haven’t had exactly the best 2016 season, the Florida State senior class can achieve quite an accomplishment with a win over rival Florida on Saturday night. A victory over the Gators would make the FSU senior class the only one in school history to defeat both Miami and Florida in four straight seasons. To do so, the Seminoles will have to continue to ride RB Dalvin Cook who became the school’s all-time leading rusher passing Warrick Dunn.
Florida State has won its last three in a row and Cook is coming off a 225-yard, four-touchdown performance against Syracuse last week. Freshman QB Deondre Francois threw for over 300 yards in the win over the Orange and continues to improve. The Seminoles defense, which has had its share of injuries this season, is improving too. Fisher’s defense has given up just 41 points in its three-game winning streak.
The Seminoles defense will face a Florida offense that doesn’t generate a lot of points. Where the Gators are very good is on defense. Last week, the Gators clinched the SEC East title with a 16-10 win over LSU. Florida stopped the Tigers on 4th-and-1 from the one-yard line on the game’s final play. The Gators have played the past two weeks with backup quarterback Austin Appleby. The former Purdue transfer has played well enough and the Gators ground game, led by Jordan Scarlett, has done enough to get Florida to 9-2. A win over Florida State and an upset of Alabama in the SEC title game could put the Gators in the College Football Playoff.