Harry Bondi
TEMPLE (-21.5) over East Carolina
It’s a total mismatch here, as the Owls come in as winners of six of their last seven games and on a seven-game winning ATS runs, while the Pirates are on fumes, losing six of their last seven games, both straight up and against the spread. Temple has covered three of the last four games in the series and should have no problem doing the same here today thanks to a defense that’s ranked in the top 5 in the country and has allowed a TOTAL of 13 points in the last three games.
SPORTS WAGERS
MARYLAND -14 over Rutgers
Maryland is a rising program that will be competitive for the next several seasons and while we may not have been enthusiastic about backing this team earlier in the year, this week's number demonstrates that the prices have not caught up with the performance. Maryland’s projected win total this season was three and they went over that number in Week 4 with a 50-7 victory over Purdue. However, with four losses in a row heading into this one and with six losses in their past seven, the Terps stock is so low that we get a great price on them here to beat the Scarlet Knights.
Maryland’s six losses occurred against Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana. That is a difficult slate for any program but let us point out that in Week 5, the Terps were a -2 point choice over Penn State. Last week, Rutgers was a 25-point home pooch against Penn State. Do you see the discrepancies there and how results influence the number to a much higher degree than performances? Well, that theory is at work here in a big way. In other words, if the Nittany Lions were a 25-point favorite in Rutgers and Maryland was favored over that same Penn State team then Maryland should at least be a 21-point favorite here and maybe even more.
The Terps also defeated Michigan State in between all those losses while Rutgers lost to Michigan State, 49-0. This Rutgers program features nothing but error prone athletes with a complete lack of focus and attention to details. Four of Rutgers last eight losses have been by scores of 58-0, 78-0, 49-0 and 39-0 ast week against Penn State in near tornado conditions. If the weather was better, Rutgers might have lost that one by 80 points and not 39. Rutgers will show up this week on the road because why?
Maryland’s pedigree is not a pretty one but the university brought in one of the brightest coaching minds in the country in D.J. Durkin in an attempt to get this thing headed in the right direction. What an accomplishment it would be if the Terps should play their way into a Bowl game and that seemingly unattainable goal would come to fruition with a victory here over Rutgers. The Terps and their bright coach are not going to let this opportunity slip by. We get a hugely deflated price here on the Terps and we’re not going to miss the great value in spotting far less points than we should be spotting. After playing the aforementioned schedule and being competitive in many of them, for the Terps, this one will appear to be in slow motion. Lay the points.
VANDERBILT +274 over Tennessee
We’re fading the Vols again to re-emphasize the need to really get after this team in late November. The sloppy, inconsistent play you've seen from Tennessee for the first 11 weeks was the best the 2016 Vols have to offer. Now that the season is officially ruined, the unity, preparation, discipline, desire and attention to detail will move from eroding into a complete collapse. For a team that is lacking on so many fronts in the first place, don’t be surprised to see the Vols get buried here in a big way. We’re fading the Vols like we mean it.
Tennessee's season has been so full of disappointments that it might be easy to lose sight of the fact that this week is the first week that the Vols are actually out of the SEC championship hunt. That means that while there may only be two remaining games, the real disappointment is just beginning. Up until two weeks ago, none of the 32 teams that had allowed 400 rushing yards had won that week. But now Tennessee has done it twice in a row. The past two games, the Vols have allowed 1,375 yards, 863 of it on the ground, and have been outgained by nearly 200 yards. And they've won those games by a combined 40 points.
Just like the early-season Vols couldn't keep leading the nation in fumbles and getting away with it, the luck will also run out on the late-season version. The Vols have faced some bad defensive teams the past two weeks but this time have a different animal in a Vanderbilt squad that hasn't allowed more than 26 points since September and just scored the most points in a conference game of the Derek Mason era. Vandy is running the ball with authority, peaking in the passing game and playing inspired defense at home. Expect the Commodores to control the game on the ground and physically humiliate the Vols on both sides of the line of scrimmage. It is also worth noting that the Commodores are playing for bowl eligibility, much like TCU (won 31-9) and N.C. State won 28-21) was yesterday. Don’t be afraid to play Vandy outright.
NEW MEXICO +130 over Wyoming
Wyoming steps into this contest off a huge win at home last week against San Diego State where the Cowboys defeated the Aztecs 34-33 as a 10-point underdog. The ending of San Diego State/Wyoming was theatrical to say the least. The Aztecs managed to land a Hail Mary but failed to convert a two-point conversion that would have put Wyoming away. San Diego State came into the contest at 9-1 and in some polls they were sporting a top-25 ranking. We highlighted the dangers of backing San Diego State in that contest and will now apply that same strategy to backing the Cowboys. In other words, last week was the right time to play Wyoming so this week would be the right time to jump ship.
The Cowboys regard last week’s outcome as a hallmark win for their program, as the crowd stormed the field of War Memorial Stadium in Laramie at the conclusion of the wild match last Saturday night. The question remains whether Wyoming will still be hungover from the celebration and how the Cowboys will fare against an opponent that stands at 4-1 at home this season. Wyoming has lost all three of their defeats away from Laramie and their most recent hiccup was a nasty one, as they surrendered 69 points to UNLV, a team currently standing at 4-7 on the year. That ugly loss to UNLV occurred after a couple of big wins against Boise State and Utah State, which is similar to this spot.
New Mexico comes in off a 49-31 loss against Colorado State on the road. New Mexico stands at 7-4 overall and has already defeated a 9-3 Air Force squad on the road in Fort Collins in Week 7. Incidentally, Air Force defeated Boise State yesterday. If Wyoming was vulnerable against UNLV, there is a great chance this game can get just as sticky for the Cowboys if their defense affords New Mexico the opportunity to get their nation-leading triple-option rushing attack going full steam.
There is a time to buy and a time to sell every single team in every single sport. We've recommended buying Wyoming a couple of times this season and hit the nail on the head both times, Now it’s time to sell, as it’s the Lobos turn to thrive. New Mexico remains well-trained and roundly capable in all three phases. We'll back them against a Wyoming program that very much hit their peak already and that are in a significant letdown spot here. Wyoming’s 8-3 record and victories over Boise State and San Diego State have kept some investors interested this week but the Cowboys defense may give up 500 yards or more here. Wyoming is likely to be a fraction as interested as they were last week and that figures to be reflected on the scoreboard when this late night contest is said and done. Lobos outright is the call.
FRESNO ST +3 over San Jose St
Neither of these teams is bowling this year, and both are coming off last-second home losses. However, San Jose State's defeat was probably more difficult to digest, so the Spartans will have a difficult time rallying after handing a win to Air Force. That was the Spartans final home game of the year and now one has to question what is going to motivate them here to compete on the road. They can’t make life miserable for the Bulldogs because Fresno is done too after this one. The Spartans season is filled with ugly losses, which includes a 17-point loss to Hawaii and a 39-point loss to SDSU.
Fresno also relinquished a late lead last week to lose to Hawaii, but this team's unity has been off the charts since interim coach Eric Kiesau took over last month and the Bulldogs have shown improvement each week. All week we’ve been trying to get a read on the Bulldogs’ state of mind by reading the beat reporters practice reports. Early signs are that this is a good spot for the ‘Dogs, who are hell-bent on ending this season with a victory after losing its last nine games in a row. The Bulldogs defense is the superior unit here but more importantly that any stat is that Fresno State is the far hungrier team in this one that hasn’t eaten since early September. That’s motivating enough to get our money. We're callling the upset but will take the points.
Bob Balfe
Ohio State -4.5
Michigan controls their Big 10 Title fate. Win and you are in, but I have two main concerns. The first is Michigan has only played 3 road games this year. You saw what Iowa did to them. The second concern is wagering against Urban Meyer in these types of spots. Not a good idea. Ohio State is young this year but has a ton of talent. Meyer turns water into wine and this home crowd will help the Buckeyes big time.
Ray Monohan
Pistons vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -3½
The Pistons have been just abysmal on the road this season and it's too much to over look. Detroit enters play just 1-7 away from the Palace of Auburn Hills, getting outscored by an average of 11 points.
The Thunder have a huge victory to build off of, where Russell Westbrook put up his 6th triple double of the season. Westbrook will have a field day with this Pistons defense that simply struggles on the road.
Some trends to note. Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. Thunder are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 Saturday games.
Lay the small number here. If Westbrook is on, which he should be, the Pistons likely won't be able to keep up.
Tony Karpinski
Tulane vs. Connecticut
Play: Tulane -1½
In a matchup of 2 bad teams, I'll take Tulane to extend UConn's misery. The Huskies have been outscored 92-3 in their last three games, which they have looked awful. The Tulane Green Wave, though 3-8 and coming off a shutout loss to Temple and I like them to be focused in this matchup in a PICK'EM situation as they, have competitive defeats to Houston and Memphis on their schedule this year.
River City Sharps
Florida +7.5
Just when you thought the Florida Gators were left for dead, they picked themselves up off the mat last week in their thrilling win over LSU. Everyone has long known that the Gators defense is a stout bunch and they will once again get a stiff challenge tonight as they travel to Tallahassee to take on their hated rivals, the Florida State Seminoles. The Gators have already locked up a spot in Atlanta to play Alabama in the SEC Championship, but this game means plenty for the many Florida kids on both sidelines. While we really like Dalvin Cook and think that Francois has improved through the year at the QB spot for these Seminoles, we also LOVE this Gators defense and think they are going to make things very difficult on this 'Noles defense. The road team has covered five straight in this rivalry and we just don’t think the 7.5 is warranted here, especially considering McElwain’s success in taking his Gators on the road. In the Gators last 12 games vs teams with a winning record, the Gators are 9-3 against the number and we like them to make this very close again tonight.
MIKE ROSE
GEORGIA TECH AT GEORGIA
PLAY: GEORGIA -4
The Governor’s Cup will once again be up for grabs in Week 13 when Kirby Smart leads the Georgia Bulldogs up against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets for his first time as head coach of the program. The previous regime went 13-2 in this rivalry, so he’s got some big expectations to live up to heading into both teams regular season finale. Each side is going bowling and each enters on multiple game winning streaks. This should be a doozy “Between the Hedges!”
With the Yellow Jackets to put forth a steady diet of running the pigskin, of course the matchup to watch is Georgia’s run defense matched up against GTECH’s option attack. UGA ranks No. 29 in defending the run allowing just over 134 yards per game. More importantly, it only concedes an average of 3.8 yards per carry which ranks out at No. 32.
The unit has been a bit more giving in each statistical category over the last three weeks, but that likely has more to do with facing a pair of rushing attacks ranked within the Top 20 in Auburn and Kentucky. Heck, even the Ragin’ Cajuns rank No. 54. Defending all those ground games should have the Dawgs locked in for this one.
Georgia has owned the recent rivalry winning eight of the last 10 meetings and covering seven of them. However, the last time they hosted this rivalry, they found themselves on the short end of a 30-24 defeat as decided 10.5 point favorites. The last time seniors lost more than once to Georgia Tech occurred back in 2002. That’s how dominant the Bulldogs have been in this rivalry. This year’s crop doesn’t want to go down in history for all the wrong reasons, or allow the Yellow Jackets to once again have their way with the hedges. Look for the Bulldogs to avenge that loss and head into the bowl season on a high.
DWAYNE BRYANT
VIRGINIA AT VIRGINIA TECH
PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH -18
The Virginia Cavaliers and the Virginia Tech Hokies (-18, 47) will square off today in a game that offers the Cavs the in-state bragging rights or the Hokies a first place finish in the Coastal Division. Kickoff for today's ACC Free Pick of the Day takes is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET at Lane Stadium at Blacksburg, Virginia.
The Hokies erased a 17-point deficit, winning by 3 in South Bend last weekend. That momentum should carry over into this rivalry game.
Virginia Tech had won every home game this season by at least 21 points before the shocking 30-20 loss to Georgia Tech. The Hokies committed four turnovers in that one, and could not stop Georgia Tech’s option attack (309 rushing yards). No such worries in this one against a Virginia ground game averaging just 3.6 yards per attempt.
2-9 Virginia may be up for this one, but they don’t have the talent to compete. A Cavaliers defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush and 8.4 yards per pass attempt will struggle to slow down the Hokies’ offense, led by dual-threat QB Jerrod Evans.
Virginia’s Bronco Mendenhall is a well-known, well-respected coach. He is much more known than first-year VT head coach Justin Fuente. That could play a part in recruiting success. Best thing Fuente can do is keep the pedal to the floor in this one, and get himself a huge win over Mendenhall’s bunch.
CARMINE BIANCO
AC MILAN AT EMPOLI
PLAY: AC MILAN +122
Milan come off a dissappointing draw in the Milan Derby where they game up the lead late and will look to bounce back here and maintain a top 3 spot in the Serie A standings. They'll face an Empoli side that has only scored 6 goals this season which all came against bottom of the league sides Pescara (4) and Crotone (2). If AC Milan can get on the board early this one should get there at a plus money price.
BUSTER SPORTS
BOSTON COLLEGE AT WAKE FOREST
PLAY: WAKE FOREST -3
It is Senior day in Winston-Salem as the Wake Forest Demon Deacons play host to the Boston College Eagles. Wake Forest is already Bowl Eligible and they will be looking to get the win so they might be able to get a bit better bowl game and thus a little more cash for the university. Boston College is in need of one more win to become Bowl eligible. These clubs can play great defense and they both don't have much offense so its going to be the intangibles that will win this game. One of these is that it is Senior Day. The Wake Forest Defense has 5 senior starters led by Marquel Lee and we believe that this D will play lights out today against one of the worse offenses in the nation. The last two weeks Wake Forest have had to play two of the top teams in the nation in Louisville and Clemson. Although they were beaten on the scoreboard they put up a good fight, actually taking a 12-10 lead into the 4th Quarter in Louisville. Conversely the same two clubs destroyed Boston College with BC not even putting up a fight. We believe the way this club showed up the last 2 games, this has set Wake Forest up for an easy victory today. Backing our selection is the fact that Boston College are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games and the fact that Wake Forest are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
OSKEIM SPORTS
NAVY AT SMU
PLAY:SMU +7
Motivation is the compelling issue in this game as SMU is one win away from becoming bowl eligible so today's season-finale (at home) takes on added significance for the Mustangs, who have not reached the postseason since 2012.
Meanwhile, Navy clinched a spot in the AAC Championship game following its 66-31 win at East Carolina last week so the coaching staff is more concerned about maintaining the Midshipmen's health than leaving the state of Texas with a win.
I backed SMU against South Florida last week and the Mustangs delivered an easy 35-27 cover as 12.5-point underdogs. Prior to that game, the Mustangs showed a lot of heart in their 55-31 win over East Carolina as 6.5-point road underdogs.
What made that victory even more impressive was the fact that it came only six days after the Mustangs suffered an embarrassing 51-7 loss to Memphis.
Let's also note that SMU took down Houston 38-16 in October as a 23-point road underdog so the Mustangs are more than capable of defeating Navy on Saturday. Last week's loss to the Bulls doesn't bother me because (a) SMU once again outperformed the betting market, and (b) SMU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in its last six conference affairs.
I'm never fond of laying points on the road with a team that struggles to get stops on defense, and that's what we have with Navy in this game.
The Midshipmen are 0.7 yards per play worse than average defensively this season (6.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.9 yards per play), and Navy's secondary has been 1.2 yards per pass attempt worse than average with opposing quarterbacks completing 63.4% of their pass attempts.
More concerning is the fact that the Midshipmen are giving up 230 rushing yards at 5.8 yards per rush attempt and 421 total yards at 6.9 yards per play on the road this season.
Navy's potent triple-option offense has an advantage against a solid SMU stop unit that is 0.1 yards per play better than average (5.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play). SMU's coaching staff, beginning with head coach Chad Morris, deserves a lot of credit for the team's improvement on defense where the Mustangs are 13 points and 90 yards per game better than last year's unit.
Despite improvement on both sides of the ball, SMU remains undervalued by the betting market and takes the field with legitimate revenge for last year's 55-14 loss at Navy. Finally, Navy is traveling for the second straight week, has Army on deck (1-6 ATS as a favorite before playing the Black Knights) and have nothing to play for after securing a spot in the AAC Title game.
CAL SPORTS
AUBURN AT ALABAMA
PLAY: UNDER 47
Alabama faces Auburn for the 6th straight time ranked either #1 of #2. From 2011 through 2013 the series averaged 56 PPG and then in 2014 the teams had a shootout with Alabama winning 55-44. Last year the Crimson Tide won 29-13.
This season Alabama is 5-6 O/U averaging 40.3 PPG on offense while allowing 11.4 PPG on defense while Auburn is 4-7 O/U on the year scoring 34.1 PPG while allowing 14.3 PPG.
When looking at the Tigers on the road this season they are 1-2 O/U with an average core of 28.3-18.7 while the Crimson Tide at home are 1-5 O/U with an average score or 39.2-6.0.
Looking at this matchup shows that Auburn is the second best defense which Alabama has faced and the Tide only scored 10 points versus their toughest for, LSU. Auburn now has to line-up against the nation’s #1 defense and they certainly have been slowed down when facing quality defenses as they scored 13 points versus Clemson (my #8 defense at the time), 16 points versus Texas A&M (my #19 D at the time) and 18 points against LSU which ranked #9 in my defensive ratings.
Alabama’s D is on a mission an in their last 8 games they have allowed six or fewer points five times and only allowed over 14 points once and that was on the road. Expect Bama to hold Auburn to 13 points or less here.
Neil The Greek
Utah at Colorado
Play: Over 53.5
For the last decade or so, Utah has made their reputation on hard tough fought defenses. But this year, they are a way better team offensively, then on defense. Colorado is one of the better defenses in the country, but they play really fast, and I suspect Utah will score against them come Saturday.
Joe Gavazzi
West Virginia -7
What a downer for WVU, who failed to cope with last Saturday night’s blizzard in Morgantown in their TO plagued 56-28 home loss to Oklahoma, in which they allowed the Sooners to rush for 388 yards. No mercy from Iowa St., as a team on the rise under HC Campbell. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS on this field against all FBS foes they have faced, including last week’s blasting of Texas Tech, when they “200 Clubbed” the Red Raiders for a 608-306 yardage edge. First year HC Campbell has devised a platoon system at the signal caller spot with (runner) Lanning and (passer) Park, alternating controls of this quickly emerging offense. The upset is clearly no surprise to this bureau.
Bob Valentino
Headed to the Pac 12 for today's free play, as I like the UCLA Bruins minus the points in Berkeley against Cal. Both teams are 4-7 and have slim hopes of making a bowl with a victory, and with this, I have to look at the big picture and see which team is better.
Quite frankly, on the whole, I like the Bruins on the whole, more than I do the Bears.
If there was ever one game the Bruins might end up looking like an offensive juggernaut, it's against Cal, which ranks last in the Pac 12 conference in rushing defense, allowing a staggering 290.1 yards per game. I don't care that the Bruins rank last in the Pac-12 - today they will run wild.
It will also open things up for UCLA senior quarterback Mike Fafaul, who has struggled while filling in for injured Josh Rosen. Fafaul, a redshirt senior, set a school single-game record for completions and attempts against Utah on Oct. 22, and is capable of a big game.
UCLA has won the last three games between the two teams, and today I look for the Bruins to roll and make it four in a row.
2* UCLA