Free Picks forSaturday, November 4th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Doc's Sports
Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M +15
Just too many points to be laying with the road team. The Aggies come out flat last week against Mississippi State but they still have played well of late outside of that game. The Tigers will be playing their third straight road game and they have a key game with Georgia at deck. This is a classic look ahead game for Auburn and I expect them to just go through the motions and this game will do down to the wire. Auburn is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in November.
Cal Sports
Wake Forest atNotre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -13
Normally would look to fade an Irish squad off B2B wins against USC and NC St but number 1, this is their third straight home game. Number 2, is that the Irish won those games and six straight by 20+ points. Number 3, is that ND has been plus turnovers in six straight games (even in other two). Number 4, is that the Irish have rushed for more yards than their opponent has gained overall. Number 5, is that Wake forest is off an upset win. Number 6, is that first year ND DC Mike Elko spent his last three years at WF in the same role. Number 7, is that the Demon Deacons lost their top offensive player WR Greg Dortch who has 53 receptions (#2 has 18 catches).
Indian Cowboy
Oregon vs. Washington
Play: Under 51.5
We like the Under here as remember Oregon lost 21-70 to Washington last year in an embarrassing defeat which will not be soon forgotten. As Oregon visits Washington today we like this team to be focused and especially on the defensive end when remembering last year's loss. Plus, Oregon is a top 50 defense overall and a top 20 defense in rushing yards allowed. And, given that Oregon is top 100 in passing but top 20 in rushing, they will look to run the ball. So, you have a team that wants to run the ball and keep the Washington offense off the field, and that typically spells an Under. Plus, Washington gave up a lot of points in their last game for their standards by yielding 23 points to UCLA - the most they have given up all year. Look for this game to likely go Under the posted total as it is also a high quality public fade as the public is heavily on the Over.
Doc's Sports
Boston (-100) over Washington
Something isn't quite right with the Washington Capitals this season. The organization made some changes in the offseason in an effort to perform better in the playoffs, but it has shaken up the team chemistry in the early going. The defense has been particularly poor as the Caps are allowing nearly 3.50 goals per game, which is in the bottom third of the league. It's not that goaltender Braden Holtby has been bad, it's just that Washington has been allowing a ton of shots on goal. That should eventually change, but right now they are a mess on the ice. The Bruins, meanwhile, have played solid hockey and I think they are a playoff team this season. The young guys are finally coming around, and the veterans have still been effective.
Jason Sharpe
Wake Forest (+13.5) over Notre Dame
This is a very tough spot here for Notre Dame as they come into this game off a couple of strong showings in what were important games for the Irish. Their last two wins were big revenge games for ND as they beat up on USC and NC State, making up for losses to those two squads last season. With a potential battle of unbeaten teams on deck next week for ND and two more revenge games after that (Navy and Stanford), this game here has all the makings of being a classic trap game. Wake Forest isn't the type of team that a team should look past, either, as they've been in every game they've played this year with their three losses coming against quality programs in Georgia Tech, Florida State and Clemson. They come into this game off a very convincing 10-point win over Louisville last week in a game that the Demon Deacons dominated as they led by 25 points in the 2nd half and cruised to a 'never-in-doubt' victory. This is a team that won't be intimidated and that is a dangerous squad with a veteran QB and have nothing to lose.
Alan Harris
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Over 63
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Kansas State Wildcats hit the road to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX, on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats have posted a 6-2 record to the over in their last eight games following a straight up win and they have gone 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games following a game where they allowed more than 450 yards of total offense in their previous game. The Red Raiders have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone up and over the number in five of their last six games played in the month of November and they are an impressive 8-3 to the over in their last 11 games following a game where they failed to cover the number. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last five head-to-head meetings at Jones AT&T and 8-1 to the over in their last nine head-to-head overall and that's where we'll have our play as we expect this one to turn into a bit of a shootout in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon.
Cal Sports
Wake Forest at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -13
Normally would look to fade an Irish squad off B2B wins against USC and NC St but number 1, this is their third straight home game. Number 2, is that the Irish won those games and six straight by 20+ points. Number 3, is that ND has been plus turnovers in six straight games (even in other two). Number 4, is that the Irish have rushed for more yards than their opponent has gained overall. Number 5, is that Wake forest is off an upset win. Number 6, is that first year ND DC Mike Elko spent his last three years at WF in the same role. Number 7, is that the Demon Deacons lost their top offensive player WR Greg Dortch who has 53 receptions (#2 has 18 catches).
Tony Finn
Virginia Tech vs. Miami
Play: Virginia Tech -2
Just over a year ago two of the top ACC Coastal Division teams met in Blacksburg, Virginia on Lane Stadium field competing for divisional superiority. The Thursday night ESPN event saw the Virginia Tech Hokies (-2, 50) defeat the Miami Hurricanes by a 37-16 margin as six point home chalk. This year's Coastal clash takes place at Hard Rock Stadium with even more at stake. The winner of the game remains part of the College Football Playoff picture the first week of January. ACC Free Pick of the Week: Hokies at Hurricanes.
The Virginia Tech and Miami contest is scheduled for ABC Sports primetime on Saturday night. Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. ET in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Last year's event was hyped as a game between two of the ACC's best quarterbacks. The aforementioned hype for the event compared Miami's Brad Kaaya and Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans to the likes of Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson. Last year's ACC signal-caller class was over-the-top talented. Along with Kaaya, Evans, Watson and Jackson there was also North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, Syracuse’s Eric Dungey and Florida State’s Deondre Francois.
This Saturday's event features the Hurricane's Malik Rosier and the Hokies Josh Jackson. Two new starters for two talented teams. Furthermore two quarterbacks who have the season's of their teammates in their hands. Or their arms and legs, heading into Saturday night's big game.
While at the time of this publication the NCAA selection committee will have yet to post their initial playoff rankings it isn't a stretch to believe both of these schools are going to be motivated to make an impact on the committee and remain in contention for January's Final Four.
Miami head coach Mark Richt's club is one of the remaining Power-5 schools that has yet to lose a game this season. College Football pundits fall into one of two categories concerning the Canes. One group considers what Miami has accomplished over the last month of play as fortunate. While the other believes the closely contested events now make the 'Canes battle tested.
Miami's last four games have resulted in a 4-0 record. That said, a different bounce of one of the galls in the four events could easily have resulted in an 0-4 record. Miami won its last four conference games – at Florida State, against Georgia Tech, against Syracuse and at North Carolina. The Hurricanes won the four by an average of just 3.6 points. And the only opponent of the four with a winning record was Georgia Tech (4-3).
The Hokies figure to run the football squarely into the teeth of the Miami front seven on Saturday night. Head coach Justin Fuente has been asked all week about what his game plan is for the Hurricanes. Fuentes has been vague with his answers. But reading between the lines and accessing his verbiage this week speaks to the coach attacking Miami by land.
Tech’s run game is being questioned due to the health concerns of starting left tackle Yosuah Nijman and running back Steven Peoples. Both starters left the last game with injuries. The coaching staff is calling the pair day-to-day but both have reportedly been part of team activities so far this past week.
Comparing this year's squads to last years renders me to believe that VT is a notch better. Conversely, Miami is suspect in the trenches compared to last year's team. The 37-16 defeat that the Hokies put on Richt’s team in Blacksburg last October saw VT control both lines of scrimmage. Tech outgained Miami by a large 251-42 rushing margin.
Executive Sports
Stanford vs. Washington St
Play: Stanford +2.5
Play On A road team (STANFORD) with an excellent offense averaging 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game. (23-3, 89% since 1992.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
The last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
DAVE COKIN
STANFORD AT WASHINGTON ST
PLAY: STANFORD +2.5
Washington State heads coach Mike Leach might have provided a little motivational ammo for Stanford on Monday. His comments on Cardinal head coach David Shaw were “he’s a good coach, but Jim Harbaugh built the program.” That’s a bit of a backhanded compliment.
Both teams are off poor performances. Stanford needed a very late score to avoid getting upset at Oregon State. Wazzu was basically blown out at Arizona. The Cougars are unpredictable to be sure, just like their head coach.
I like the revenge angle here, as Stanford surely hasn’t forgotten getting its doors blown in at home by this opponent last season. I think that was probably the single game low point for Shaw since he’s been at Stanford.
The Cardinal have rather quietly won five in a row and Wazzu is heading the opposite way to some extent. I’m aware that Bryce Love might not play here for Stanford. He’s a huge part of their offense and right now is being called a game time decision. If Love is good to go, I really like this spot for the Cardinal. If he has to sit out again, it’s clearly a tougher task. But I like the situation so regardless I’m taking with Stanford.
Jesse Schule
Arizona vs. USC
Play: Over 72½
Arizona vs USC Free Pick November 4, 2017. Arizona is the hottest team in the PAC12, coming into Pasadena off four straight wins over Colorado, UCLA, Cal and Washington State. They scored 45+ points in all four of those wins, doing the bulk of the damage on the ground. That could spell trouble for a USC team that ranks 87th nationally against the run. Two weeks ago they were manhandled in a 49-14 loss to Notre Dame. The Irish ran for 377 yards and five TDs in the win. The Trojans are 5-0 at home, but have failed to cover in four of those five wins. Most recently they beat Utah by a score of 28-27, needing a failed two-point conversion by the Utes to escape with the win. The Wildcats are 3-0 on the road, and their two losses this season both came in games decided by less than seven points. I expect this game to come right down to the wire, last score wins. The Wildcats have gone over in sixst of their last seven road games, and the over is 17-5 in their last 22 versus teams with a winning record.
Jack Brayman
I'm taking the points with the Michigan State Spartans over the Penn State Nittany Lions.
The Lions are going to try to rebound after that heartbreaking loss last week, to Ohio State, and play a very tough Michigan State team that is reeling from a 3-overtime loss to Northwestern. If this was at Happy Valley, I'd fully understand. But this one is in East Lansing, and I think the Lions will have their hands full with the Spartans.
MSU quarterback Brian Lewerke threw for a school-record 445 yards against Northwestern last week, which is pleasant surprise considering Michigan State normally relies on its running game.
The balance of Lewerke and running back LJ Scott (511 yards, four touchdowns) is a fantastic dynamic that will keep the Nittany Lions defense busy, and tired, all afternoon. And knowing Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio won't be looking to get into a shootout with a team averaging 39.8 points a game, I think a heavy dose of Scott will drain the clock, while the talent of Lewerke will come in handy when it's time to fire downfield.
The Lions, who are mired in a 1-10 slide after suffering a straight-up loss, will still be affected by last week's loss and will come in flat. The Spartans, however, will be sparked for a huge win at home, where they've covered seven of their last eight.
Take the home underdog.
5* MICHIGAN STATE
Alex Smart
Clemson vs. NC State
Play: NC State +7½
Last week N.C. State played most of the Notre Dame game without key offensive cog and running back Nyheim Hines, who sustained a first-quarter sprained ankle. He is also a return specialist and him not being there effected their field position. the good news for Wolfpack supporters is that HC Doeren said it is not a long-term injury, and from my own reports from people I know close to the team , is that he is tentatively expected to play.
Also NC State actually looked unprepared for that game with the Irish, and could of easily been looking ahead to this game.Here in conference play I`m betting this will be a different NC St team playing in front of their home crowd. Remember this Tigers side proved they are vulnerable in the loss to Syracuse a few weeks ago and last week looked rusty vs Georgia Tech and now with a even bigger test at hand may find it difficult to get out of this game with a victory little line a cover. The Wolfpack took Clemson to OT last season as 21 road underdogs and are not beyond pulling off the shocker this Saturday.
Wunderdog
Stanford @ Washington St
Pick: Stanford +2.5
Stanford has won five in a row and perhaps was looking ahead to this revenge game when it eked by Oregon State 15-14 as an 18-point favorite. The Cardinal has averaged 35.8 points its last five games and was without the nation's yards-per-carry leader, Bryce Love, due to an ankle injury. He will be a game-time decision this week and quarterback Keller Chryst, who played against the Beavers, could split time with K.J. Costello. Washington State has fizzled after a 6-0 start with losses at California and Arizona wrapped around a home win against Colorado. The Cougars' defense was lit up in Saturday's 58-37 loss to Arizona, which rushed for 310 yards on 34 carries for a whopping 9.1 yards per carry. WSU actually outgained the Wildcats 646-585 as Tyler Hilinski was 45-of-61 for 509 yards with two touchdowns, but with four interceptions after entering the game with 2:56 remaining in the second quarter to replace Luke Falk. WSU embarrassed Stanford 42-16 in 2016, but the Cardinal has covered the number six of the last eight meetings. Also, Stanford is 19-7-1 ATS after an ATS loss and 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings at Washington State.