Joe Everett
South Florida / UConn Over 64½
The South Florida offense is churning out the points thanks to dual threat quarterback Quinton Flowers and a supporting cast of athletes that allows the Bulls to play fast and threaten defenses with multiple running outlets. They have a terrific tandem in senior runningbacks D’Ernest Johnson, a jack of all trades back, and their banger/short yardage runner Darius Tice. The trio of Tice, Johnson and Flowers has combined for 24 rushing touchdowns and with receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the mix, defensive coordinators have difficulty keeping tabs on their arsenal of playmakers. The 2016 Connecticut team that used to be a stalwart on defense is dead, as they have morphed into a sieve like unit giving up 38½ points per game and an average of 170-plus rushing yards to each opponent.
On the other side, Connecticut has also changed their offensive approach with a new focus on team speed and pace of play under new offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee. They are running much more zone read, the Huskies are using quarterback Bryant Shirreffs as a runner and they are marching up to the line of scrimmage to run plays quickly with 75.6 plays on offense per game which is 39th ranked. The South Florida defense isn’t the same pushover that it has been in years past at 19.9 points allowed per game but they still have problems stopping big plays with four touchdowns on offense given up to East Carolina, Tulane and Houston each. The Bulls have holes and there will be opportunities for Shirreffs through the air, especially when throwing to 6’2” junior Hergy Mayala who boasts a 16.4 yards per catch average and has registered five receiving touchdowns on the year.
The last time these two teams met, South Florida blew the Huskies out 42-27 in Tampa with the game soaring OVER the 53½ points total and even though both of these teams are roughly even in respect to the total results this season, both of these offenses will run through their play calls in rapid fire. This number hasn’t moved that much from the opener of 64 and with the conditions in Storrs being very favorable, I would expect the number to only move up approaching kickoff. The Bulls should dominate this game but with Connecticut’s new offensive philosophy, a final in the range of 48-24 in a South Florida blowout is a very feasible outcome here.
New Mexico St / Texas St Over 57
Don’t look now but the Aggies are the country’s 7th ranked passing attack with 341.7 yards per game through the air and a lot of that is thanks to a terrific wide receiver/quarterback tandem in redshirt senior Tyler Rodgers and juco product Jaleel Scott who stands 6’5” and has put himself firmly on the NFL Draft radar with seven receiving touchdowns and a 14.6 yards per catch average. Head Coach Doug Martin also calls his own plays and serves as the team’s offensive coordinator, running predominantly out of the shotgun in a spread “pass to set up the run” type of approach. New Mexico has a senior leader at runningback in Larry Rose III who is the second all-time leading rusher for the Aggies and is an ideal sattelite type of back with 26 receptions thus far. The Bobcats run a 3-4 look on defense with coordinator Randall McCray running a similar system to Wisconsin’s defense with stacked blitzes and an aggressive front but they just don’t have the same type of athletes at Texas State with an average of 29.1 points allowed per game.
The Aggies’ defense is the 99th ranked scoring defense at 32.1 points per game given up and their even front scheme with no team speed is what allows opponents to stay within reach late in games. They will struggle against Texas State’s Damien Williams who is a dual threat passer that leads the team in passing touchdowns as well as rushing touchdowns and is going in this game despite a hand injury sustained in State’s last game. The Bobcats aren’t loaded on offense but they have a lot of seniors leadership like Williams at quarterback, leading receiver Elijah King and tight end Gabe Schrade that are certain to get up for this homecoming and what will likely be their second to last game at Bobcat stadium. While Everett Withers’ offense isn’t as explosive as Doug Martin’s squad, Texas State runs an up tempo attack with an average of 74.6 plays run per game which ranks 47th nationally compared to New Mexico’s 27th ranking at 77.
The Aggies crushed the Bobcats last year 50-10 and even though New Mexico State is certain to win this game as well, look for Texas State to bring their offense with them on senior day. The forecast in San Marcos is cloudy but temperatures should be in the low 80’s with 5-9 mph winds, so the Aggies passing game shouldn’t be deterred in any way. The line movement here isn’t in our favor, as the opener was 55 and is now up to 57 with the potential to go even higher. Despite a limited Texas State offense and a hand injury to Bobcats quarterback Damian Williams, the Aggies might just score 50 by themselves here so look for a final of 48-17 in what will be a big New Mexico State win.
Hawaii / UNLV Over 58
The Runnin’ Rebs are finally doing just that with a deadly mobile quarterback in true freshman Armani Rogers and star running back junior Lexington Thomas, who has 13 rushing touchdowns and is averaging seven yards per carry. Tony Sanchez is running the zone read with his receivers spread out to utilize the entire field and when defenses overload the box, there’s senior receiver Devonte Boyd the second all-time leading receiver in school history with 3,107 yards receiving in his career. Against a suspect Hawaii defense that has given up 26 or more points in their last six consecutive games, the Rebels will run roughshod all over the Warriors terrible rushing defense. UNLV’s freshman sensation Armani Rogers is recovering from a concussion that caused him to miss last week but he is listed as probable for Saturday.
The Warriors do have some key injuries on offense, as senior tight end Metuisela ‘Unga is out for an extended period with an ankle injury and leading receiver John Ursua is done for the year with a torn right ACL suffered in the San Jose State game. Hawaii still has the leader of their offense in junior signal caller Dru Brown who runs Nick Rolovich’s read option scheme and while he’s not a dangerous threat on the ground, he does have two rushing scores on the year. The Hawaii offense is at its best when Diocemy Saint Juste is toting the rock, which has led to 1,134 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Saint Juste is a low to the ground change of direction back that keeps defenders guessing when putting on the jukes he’s capable of and with UNLV’s defense ranking 121st at 234 rushing yards per game allowed, the Warriors will be able to keep ahead of the sticks in this game.
The forecast at Sam Boyd Stadium Saturday is calling for wind gusts from 15-18 mph but it will be clear and sunny with temps in the high 60’s and with both of these teams making their hay on the ground, these should be considered favorable conditions. This number has dropped significantly from 63 down to 58 as of this writing and while the wind and the injury to Rogers might play into that movement, it is tempting to sit back and wait until kickoff to get all the value we can get out of this total. These two teams are terrible run defenses and their strengths on offense are in the ground game, so look for a back forth matchup in what should be a 45-31 UNLV win in Las Vegas.
Scott Spreitzer
Northwestern vs. Nebraska
Play: Northwestern +1
The Cornhuskers picked up an important win last weekend in West Lafayette, but trailed 24-12 early in the fourth quarter. Two things to note: Things have gotten so bad under lame duck HC Mike Riley that a win at Purdue is considered important. Secondly, if Purdue HC Jeff Brohm doesn't go conservative, his team wins the game. It really is as simple as that. But the Husker running game, or lack thereof, catches up with them here. Nebraska is averaging just 111 yards rushing per contest in Big-10 play. We're betting Wildcats' HC Pat Fitzgerald will have his 17th-ranked run defense ready for Nebraska's stagnant offense and we don't believe Tanner Lee will have another outing like he did through the air in the second half at Purdue. The 'Cats aim for their bowl-eligible 6th win this week and we believe they'll get it, going up top on offense against Nebraska's shaky pass defense. Northwestern has covered 12 of their last 16 road games, while Nebraska has dropped five in a row ATS at home.
Ray Monohan
Maryland vs. Rutgers
Play: Maryland -2
The Terps lay a small number against a team they have a huge advantage against.
Rutgers offensive firepower just isn't there. They average just 21.5 points per game and in the college football world, that just won't cut it. Rutgers has no playmakers that can turn in explosive plays or change the field with a run or catch.
Maryland on the other hand has a surprising offense. They're averaging 30.6 points per game and D.J. Moore is causing havoc out wide. Moore is the difference maker here as he's racked up 8 touchdowns this season.
Some trends to note. Scarlet Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
This number is just too low.
Jack Jones
Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -9½
The Vanderbilt Commodores opened 3-0 this season with a 14-7 home win over Kansas State. Things were going great, but then they stepped into SEC play, and have promptly gone 0-5 since. Now at 3-5 on the season, they are in must-win mode if they want to get to a bowl game. And the way the schedule sets up, they will have a great chance to do just that.
Let's look at this 0-5 run. They had to play Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss and South Carolina. They played Alabama and Georgia at home, meaning their most winnable games were on the road, and they lost all of them. They were competitive against both Florida and South Carolina.
I think the Commodores regroup here and make this a season cut into thirds. The first third was great, the second third was terrible, but now they have the final third to get right and get back to a bowl game. They host Western Kentucky, Kentucky and Missouri in their next three games before going on the road to face Tennessee. They have a real chance to get right here.
Western Kentucky has been one of the most overrated teams in college football. The loss of Jeff Brohm was absolutely massive, especially when you consider how well Purdue has played this year. And the Hilltoppers have been awful all season, failing to live up to expectations from oddsmakers week after week.
Indeed, WKU is 1-6-1 ATS this season. WKU beat FCS foe Eastern Kentucky 31-17 as 35-point favorites in the opener. Their 7-20 loss at Illinois as 6-point favorites looks really poor right now. They lost 22-23 at home to LA Tech as 4-point favorites. They only beat Ball State 33-21 at home, and that's a 2-7 Ball State team that is coming off five straight losses in MAC play since by 52, 28, 49, 41 and 42 points.
WKU then went on the road and beat a UTEP team that is currently 0-8 by a final of 15-14 as 16-point favorites. The only game the Hilltoppers covered came the next week with a 45-14 home win over CHarlotte as 17.5-point favorites. Well, Charlotte is 1-7 this season. Then two weeks ago WKU only beat Old Dominion 35-31 on the road as 6.5-point favorites. Old Dominion is 2-6. And last week they lost at home 28-42 to Florida Atlantic as 6-point dogs.
This is a great matchup for Vanderbilt. Their defense has been good against the pass, allowing just 15 completions, 171 passing yards per game and 6.5 yards per pass attempt. WKU is a one-dimensional passing offense that averages 309 passing yards per game, but just 84 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.
WKU has played the 128th toughest schedule out of 130 teams, while Vanderbilt has played the 45th toughest to this point. WKU is 0-5 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. Vanderbilt is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. C-USA foes. The Commodores will take out their frustration from this five-game losing streak and get back in the win column by double-digits here against the overmatched and undermanned Hilltoppers.
Mike Anthony
Illinois vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -14
Purdue has gotten some real quality play from their Oline. It's going to be a long game for the Illinois Dlinemen going up against them. And the Purdue LBs will keep their hostile attack going by getting after the Illinois QB. Which will be brutally exposed by a nasty attack - whoever is lined up at QB is going to be in some serious trouble. Purdue and a couple of their difficultly schemed blitzes will be leaving their QB in crumpled heaps. The disarrayed short passes that the Fighting Illini try to work in - just gets far too easy too defend after a while. Illinois wont be doing that against Purdue through the game. The Fighting Illini Oline can't protect their QB good enough, or create enough space for any kind of run game for the backs on this team. Illinois is not nearly enough to win here, on the road. Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games Purdue bounces back with a big blowout win here at home on Saturday afternoon.
Will Rogers
Virginia Tech vs. Miami
Pick: Virginia Tech -2.5
The set-up: No. 13 Va. Tech (I'll use CFP rankings) visits Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday night to take on the 10th-ranked Miami Hurricanes. The 7-1 Hokies (3-1 in the ACC) only loss is a 31-17 defeat at Clemson (current No. 4 in the CFP rankings) and enter this contest off three straight wins (over Boston College, North Carolina and Duke) since losing to the Tigers. Miami is 7-0 (5-0 in ACC play) and enters off three consecutive non-covers, edging Ga. Tech 25-24 at home, beating beating Syracuse 27-19 as a 17 1/2-point favorite at home and then winning last Saturday just 24-19 at North Carolina, as a three-TD favorite. Miami leads the all-time series 20-14 but Va. Tech rolled over the 'Canes last year in Blacksburg, 37-16
Virginia Tech: Both Virginia Tech and Miami have first-year starters at QB. Virginia Tech's Josh Jackson has a 62.3 completion percentage, averaging 254 yards per game with 17 TDs and four INTs. The offense has solid balance, averaging 266.5 YPG passing and 180.0 YPG on the ground. However, it's the Bud Foster coached defense which stands out, allowing 11.5 PPG (2nd) on 284.5 YPG (9th).
Miami: QB Malik Rosier also has 17 TDs and just four INTs but is completing a lower percentage than Jackson (just 56.7%) but throws for about 40 more YPG (295.9). Miami's D doesn't quite match Va. Tech's but by allowing 18.7 PPG (20th) a on 379.9 YPG (53erd), that unit hardly owns any 'apologies.'
The pick: The Hurricanes are 5-0 in ACC play for the first time in program history but I'm not convinced they are the better team. However, a four-point victory over Florida State, a one-point decision over Georgia Tech, an eight-point decision over Syracuse, and last week's five-point struggle against one-win North Carolina didn't keep the Hurricanes from earning a No. 10 ranking in the season's first College Football Playoff rankings. Miami has won its last four games by a total of just 18 points, while Justin Fuente's Va. Tech team has won three in a row since dropping a 31-17 decision to Clemson, including a 59-7 rout of a North Carolina team that pushed Miami to the brink before losing 24-19 last week. Maybe Va. Tech is favored for a reason?
Stephen Nover
Nevada at Boise State
Play: Nevada +21½
Only once has Nevada lost by more than 20 points this season. That came in a road game against Washington State five games ago.
After that loss, Ty Gangi took over at quarterback. The Wolf Pack have averaged 35 points in their last four games with Gangi under center. Gangi has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last three games. The Wolf Pack have covered each of those last three games, including losing by just two points to Colorado State as 25-point road 'dogs.
This is a much bigger game for Nevada than it is for Boise State. The Wolf Pack treat this game as a rivalry. They've had two weeks to prepare following a bye last week. The Broncos have a much bigger game on tap playing at Colorado State next week.
Boise State is more about defense than offense this season. The Broncos rank 103rd in yards per game. They aren't built to cover lopsided spreads like this especially against good passing teams. The Broncos average just under 30 points a game.
Nevada is 7-1-1 ATS during its last nine November games. Boise State is a brutal 0-12-1 ATS as a home favorite and 0-10 ATS in its last 10 home contests.
Dr Bob
Clemson @ No Carolina St.
NC State’s star back Nyheim Hines (654 yards at 5.5 ypr) has been upgraded to probable, which will certainly help the Wolfpack given how poorly they ran at Notre Dame last week after Hines was injured after just 2 runs (just 2.8 yards per rushing play). NC State does tend to play better against better competition, aside from last week, but the Clemson defense is just too good and I’d favor the Tigers by 6 points even if NC State quarterback Ryan Finley does not throw an interception (he threw his first of the season last week). My math favors Clemson by 7 ½ points so I’d steer clear of the side while leaning under.
Ohio St. @ Iowa
My math model favors Ohio State by 19.3 points after factoring in the absence of the Buckeyes’ top receiver Parris Campbell, who has averaged 10.5 yards per pass thrown to him, but Iowa has been a good underdog for many, many years, as teams that play conservatively on offense and play good defense often are. Iowa is 23-8 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points, including 18-3 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. The last few seasons the Hawkeyes are 3-0 ATS as a big dog, losing by just 2 points as a 10 point home dog to Wisconsin in 2014, beating Michigan here last season as a 21 ½ point dog and nearly upsetting Penn State on this field earlier this season as a 12 ½ point dog (lost 19-21). I really like the way Ohio State is playing and they dominated Penn State last week from the line of scrimmage (7.0 yards per play to 4.5 yppl), but I’ll pass on this one since I don’t want to go against Iowa as a big home dog.
Iowa St. @ West Virginia
West Virginia is an overrated team and Iowa State is legit. The Cyclones have a very good defense that has allowed just 18.8 points per game and 5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team and they have held good offensive teams Texas Tech and TCU to just 20 points combined at 4.6 yppl the last two weeks. West Virginia does have a good offense (1.0 yppl better than average) but the Mounties’ attack is only 0.1 yppl better than the ISU defense and Iowa State’s offense (+0.1 yppl) has an advantage over a WVU defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team). Iowa State also has better special teams and my math model picks this game dead-even at 29.4 points apiece.
Brandon Lee
Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Play: Auburn -15
This is going to feel like a lot of points for Texas A&M to be catching at home, but I just don’t trust this Aggies team late in the season. Time after time under head coach Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M has struggled to play well down the stretch. We saw signs of that trend continuing with their pitiful showing at home against Mississippi State last week. The Aggies managed just 285 total yards in a spot where you would expect a lot more coming off a bye.
If that’s all the offense can muster against the Bulldogs, they are in for a long day here against one of the best defenses in the country. Auburn is 9th in the country, giving up just 15.6 ppg and are 13th in total defense, ranking inside the Top 25 against both the run and the pass.
It’s become pretty clear that when Texas A&M struggles to run the ball, the offense has a hard time putting up points. The Aggies have failed to reach the 100-yard mark in rushing each of their last 3 games and scored less than 20 points in all 3 games.
The other thing is that Auburn is one of the best teams in the country that no one is really talking about. The Tigers only two losses have come on the road against Clemson and LSU, both by 8-points or less. If they can win this game and manage to beat both Georgia and Alabama at home, they would win the SEC West and potentially sneak into the playoffs with another win in the SEC title game.
After losing at home to Texas A&M a season ago, I just don’t see the Tigers overlooking this matchup with the Aggies. On top of that, this is not a spot where Texas A&M has thrived against the spread under Sumlin. The Aggies are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11at home in Weeks 10 through 13 of the season, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games vs teams who average 230 or more rushing yards/game and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 off a conference loss by 10 or more points.
Andre Ramirez
Arizona +7½
This is a horrible matchup for USC, which gets the unenviable task of playing 12 games without a bye this season. The Trojans looked rejuvenated last week, in trouncing the boys from Tempe, 48-17. I’m not convinced they can slow down Khalil Tate and company, though, with a decimated defense that ranks sixth in the conference in rushing yards allowed, at 164.8 yards per game.
The Trojans are two weeks removed from getting clowned by Notre Dame, who racked up 377 rushing yards on them in South Bend. It sure seems like the Trojans’ rush defense is ailing, which sets up perfectly for an upset and a fifth straight win for Arizona.
Larry Ness
UTEP vs. Middle Tennessee State
Play: Middle Tennessee St -17½
The 0-8 UTEP Miners are at the 3-5 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The Miners are winless, while Tennessee State has lost two straight, most recently a 38-10 setback to Marshall two weeks ago.
UTEP was without its starting QB in its 31-14 loss to UTSA last weekend. Ryan Metz had been a disaster anyways, but his backup was possibly even worse as Fresno State transfer Zack Greenlee was 8 of 29 for 133 yards, no TD’s and two INT’s.
The Miners rank 130th in the nation in total yards per game (222.5 YPG), while ranked 111th in total yards conceded (451.6 YPG.)
MTSU averages 364.1 YPG and concedes 357 (which is ranked a respectable 36th in the nation.) In the loss to the Herd, QB John Urzua was just 14 of 30 for 220 yards, one TD and one pick.
Urzua suffered a slight concussion, meaning that freshman Kyle Banks could get the call here. Banks has limited playing time, but regardless I still think he has the advantage over Greenlee.
Additionally I’ll point out that UTEP is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road (including 0-3 ATS this year) and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while MTSU is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 at home and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November.
Both teams have major QB issues, but football involves three phases. UTEP is a mess across the board, while MTSU’s defense should prove to be the difference maker today. Consider laying the points in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Play: Texas A&M +15
Edges - Aggies: 5-0-1 ATS at home following a home loss when facing an opponent off a win; and 7-1 ATS as home dogs of 7 or more points… Tigers: 6-12-1 ATS as double-digit conference favorites. With Auburn playing its third straight road game, and having a triple revenger with Georgia on deck, we recommend a 1* play on Texas A&M.
Doug Upstone
Northwestern vs. Nebraska
Play: Northwestern -2
Northwestern has been turning their season around with improved offense and great defense. That is not case for Nebraska, which is why we want to Play On a road team like the Wildcats, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games, against opponent after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in two straight games. In the last 10 seasons, teams like Northwestern are remarkable 24-2 ATS, 92.3%!
Freddy Wills
Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -10½
I’ve been looking for opportunities to fade Western Kentucky who has Marshall on deck. Vanderbilt has been in a brutal stretch of SEC games and this is a major step down in strength of schedule. Western Kentucky is not even close to the same team as last year, and their offense is going to struggle here. Vanderbilt’s offense is actually playing very well and under radar as Kyle Schurmur has 18 passing TD’s to just 3 INT’s.
Vanderbilt desperately needs a win to get back into a bowl game, and I believe they not only get the win, but they get it by double digits here, because of how well the offense has played of late.
Chip Chirimbes
Iowa State vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -3½
Iowa State has now defeated Oklahoma and TCU and I expect the same thing to happen this time after they won in an upset. They will get ambushed in Morgantown by West Virginia who was just waxed at home by Oklahoma State. West Virginia has had the best of this series winning and covering the past three meetings including 49-19 last year in Ames. Iowa State along with SMU has yet to lose a fumble this year...watch out today.