Martin Griffiths
Hull City vs. Sheffield United
Play: Sheffield United -½
Third-placed Sheffield United host 18th placed Hull City in this English Championship game and it is the home side that I fully expect to win.
United have won six of their seven home games this season, they have conceded just three goals in those seven matches and despite losing away to QPR on Tuesday are in great form.
Hull City, on the other hand, have won just once on their travels all season and that was in their most recent away game, they have lost twice at home since that solitary away win and enter this game with very low morale.
On current form and with home advantage Sheffield United are a very confident pick to collect all three points today.
Vic Duke
Illinois vs. Purdue
Play: Under 47
Illinois/Purdue 12:00: Illinois has trouble getting in the end zone as their 122nd in the nation in points scored indicates. I don't see the Illini fighting hard to get into the end zone today against a Purdue defense that hasn't given up more than 2 TDs in a game since late September. This series is 1-4 O/U in the last 5 in West Lafayette. On the other hand, the Illini defense is opportunistic, forcing fumbles and plays the pass well. I'll look for limited explosive plays against them. We'll look for a lower scoring game here.
3G-Sports
Penn St vs. Michigan St
Play: Michigan St +10
Even though the final score might say otherwise, Penn State was thoroughly outplayed by Ohio State last week on the road in the Nittany Lions’ 519-283 in yards and defeat. Penn State was unable to get consistent yardage on the ground. I think they'll have a hard time getting up for this game at Michigan State who is ahead of schedule and this young developing group will be a serious factor in the Big Ten over the coming years. Michigan Stat stands 6-2 overall, 4-1 in the Big Ten, and the Spartans still control their own destiny to the Big Ten title game. QB Brian Lewerke has added a dimension to the offense with his running ability, but the Spartans have built their success this season on defense. We like Michigan State to keep things interesting as they go on to cover the spread.
Mike Anthony
Illinois vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -14
Purdue has gotten some real quality play from their Oline. It's going to be a long game for the Illinois Dlinemen going up against them. And the Purdue LBs will keep their hostile attack going by getting after the Illinois QB. Which will be brutally exposed by a nasty attack - whoever is lined up at QB is going to be in some serious trouble. Purdue and a couple of their difficultly schemed blitzes will be leaving their QB in crumpled heaps. The disarrayed short passes that the Fighting Illini try to work in - just gets far too easy too defend after a while. Illinois wont be doing that against Purdue through the game. The Fighting Illini Oline can't protect their QB good enough, or create enough space for any kind of run game for the backs on this team. Illinois is not nearly enough to win here, on the road. Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games Purdue bounces back with a big blowout win here at home on Saturday afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
Ohio State vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa +18.5
Iowa is getting over 18 points at home in this game and they have covered 10 of the last 12 as a home dog taking 8 or more points. The Hakweyes best game this season was a 2 point home loss to a then undefeated penn St team, that was all out in that game and escaped late. A team that Ohio St was lucky to beat at home last week. Now the Buckeyes come in with a potential flat spot game as they have another big one on deck against Michigan St. Ohio St is the better team and will win. However, this looks like a classic win and no cover for a large ESPN Favorite.
Zack Cimini
Arizona vs. USC
Pick: USC -7.5
In the last game of the night we’ll look for the Trojans to continue their elevated play off of last week’s win against ASU. Arizona’s hot-streak since moving to Tate at quarterback has featured all covers. His phenomenal play likely will continue but banking on Arizona to continue to be able to perform for four quarters of a shootout is unlikely. Grab the value here on USC.
Jim Feist
Mississippi at Kentucky
Pick: Over
Ole Miss is really missing these days, having dropped five of their last six games including a improbable loss to Arkansas last week, 38-37. Miss outgained the hogs by 119 yards and led the game at one point 31-7. Have to winder here what kind of mental state Ole Miss will be in for this contest. Ole Miss will once again be without their top QB, Shea Patterson. Patterson had 17 TD's in his seven games he played. Despite scoring 37 last week, QB replacement Jordan Ta'amu did not throw a TD. Kentucky is 6-2 and bowl eligible at this point. HC Mike Stoops will want wins for sure now as each win after six results in $250 in his pocket. Both these clubs are great over bets, Ole Miss going 7-0 O/U in their last seven conference games and 12-3 O/U their last 15 overall. In addition, they are 22-8-1 O/U in their last 31 road games. Kentucky is 10-1-1 O/U in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record. Expect a lot of points in this contest, play the OVER.
Ian Cameron
Central Florida at SMU
Play: Over 72.5
The tremendous balance of UCF’s offense (313.1 ypg passing, 15th nationally; 216.5 ypg rushing, 26th nationally) is going to give SMU a ton of problems on Saturday. The Mustangs have an average at-best stop unit in terms of AAC play but it’s important to note they have yet to face Memphis, South Florida (who they don’t play), and UCF who arguably make up the top three offenses in the league. SMU’s numbers against the run look solid but eliminate the -8 yards they allowed to UConn and things get ugly. TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, and Tulsa all went for 245+ on the ground against the Mustangs. That resulted in 38.3 ppg allowed and the scary thing is UCF is just as explosive if not more than all for other those squads. A typical UCF output suggests it will have no trouble topping 45 points.
On the flip side, SMU should have some success offensively as well with quarterback Ben Hicks (60.1%, 19-6 TD-INT ratio) chucking the ball all over the field. The Mustangs have the 9th highest scoring offense in the country (41.5 ppg) and have only scored fewer than 30 points once. The UCF defense has been solid (5.22 ypp) but you can make an argument this will be its toughest test of the year. They’ve allowed 21+ in each of their last four games and none of those opponents feature as strong an offensive attack as SMU. Note that both squads are two of only 19 teams nationally that have hit on 15 or more 40+ yard plays. This one has the potential to be a shootout. Play it over.
Rob Veno
Wake Forest at Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -14
Notre Dame continues to bury opponents as last week’s 35-14 win and cover versus North Carolina State became the seventh time in their seven victories that the Irish won 20 or more points. The ND ground game shredded NC State’s very formidable defensive front on the way to their fourth consecutive 300+ rushing effort. The offensive line for Notre Dame has undoubtedly been one of the three best in the nation and figures to be a handful for Wake Forest this Saturday. First year Offensive Coordinator Chip Long has unleashed Brian Kelly’s preferred read-option style attack which now has all the ingredients including home run threat runners QB Brandon Wimbush and RB Josh Adams. Wake Forest has seen their share of talented running quarterbacks this season including Louisville’s Lamar Jackson last week. They’ve also faces Clemson’s Kelly Bryant (was injured in third quarter of that game), Appalachian State’s Taylor Lamb and Utah State’s Kent Meyers. Wake bottled up three of those running signal callers and their overall ground attacks pretty well until last week when Jackson exploded for 161 rushing yards on 6.0 per carry. Louisville does not have an NFL caliber running back to go with Jackson nor do they have a dominant offensive line which makes this a massive task for the Demon Deacons.
Offensively, Wake Forest has been exceedingly better than advertised. The implementation of HC Dave Clawson’s expanded playbook which began in last year’s bowl game appearance has produced 427.3 total yards per game. That number is 116 ypg higher than last season’s number and this is the first time this decade Wake has exceeded 370. Quicker tempo, better QB play from starter John Woolford, solid execution of their quick hitting passing attack and offensive balance are all responsible for the increased production. However, in three of their last four games they have faced defenses ranked in the nation’s top 35 and they have failed to gain over 367 total yards. In those games (Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech), WF has averaged 335 ypg and 19 ppg. Notre Dame’s defense comes in at 34th which indicates Wake’s offense could be slowed down again. Adding to Wake Forest’s offense woes is the loss of their top WR Greg Dortch who sustained an abdominal injury last week which has him shelved for the season. Dortch has 10 catches against Louisville last Saturday and leads the team with 53. To illustrate how huge of a loss that is, the second leading receiver is sophomore Scotty Washington who has 17.
I can’t see any reason at this point to do anything but hop on the Notre Dame train in situations like this where the opponent boasts neither a dominant offense or defense. As mentioned above, their score differential in all of their wins this season has exceeded the current line of -14 by at least six points every time. Eight games into the season, Notre Dame has not shown a single sign of let down or look-ahead so there’s no reason to expect that here. Fundamentals, situationals and seemingly underpriced pointspread all point toward a play on Notre Dame here.
Andrew Lange
Alabama -21
LSU has had its fair share of issues this season. The passing game, Ed Orgeron sticking his nose in where it doesn't belong, Danny Etling, Matt Canada's new offense...the list goes on. But when they Tigers have really struggled, all of those things take a back seat to offensive line play. With a handful of young and inexperienced players, LSU's o-line has had an extremely difficult time both pass and run blocking. The run game is still averaging over 200 ypg but more by attrition (42.6 attempts per game) than ability. Compared to last season, the Tigers are down a full yard per carry (5.07). This weekend's matchup has the potential to expose this unit in a big way.
Alabama's strength of schedule thus far doesn't look all that impressive in large part because a majority of their opponents have vastly underachieved. But the ability to dominate no matter who the foe is obviously still there. The Crimson Tide have outscored their five SEC opponents by 200 points. And while LSU marks arguably their toughest foe to-date, LSU's body of work really isn't all that impressive. There's the blowout loss to Mississippi State, a lackluster performance vs. Syracuse, a home loss to Troy, a fortunate win over Florida, and another fortunate win over Auburn in which War Eagle basically handed LSU the game. And two weeks ago, a solid win and cover over lower-tier Ole Miss. Last season, LSU was +1.62 ypp better than SEC foes and still failed to score a point in a 10-0 loss to the Crimson Tide. This year's edition is a far more modest +0.46. Note that in that loss to Alabama, behind a far better offensive line, LSU managed only 33 rushing yards and 125 total yards.
I'm not sure how Alabama will play it: load the box and blitz Etling till he gets knocked out of the game, or rush three or four and force LSU's non-existent big play passing game to beat them. Either way, the line of scrimmage matchup is lopsided enough where I feel comfortable laying the three touchdown spread.
DAVE COKIN
CAPITALS VS. BRUINS
PLAY: CAPITALS +100
I generally don’t put a great deal of stock into career records for goalie vs. opponents. I think it’s simply too random of a stat to rely on as a key element. But there are exceptions to be sure, and this is one of them.
Simply stated, the Washington Capitals own Tuukka Rask. I’ll be honest, I was a little surprised to see Rask announced as the Boston goalie for tonight’s game. I was thinking that he might get a night off and draw back in on Monday when the Bruins host Minnesota.
But it’s going to be Rask, and there it is. 16 appearances in his career against the Caps, one win. At some point, the psychology has to be weighed into the analysis. Dismiss that if you like, but I watch virtually every Bruins game (tough to shake those New England roots) and Rask has probably given up more bad goals to this team than any other.
Beyond the Rask issues, the Bruins simply aren’t very good. Boston is off a win against the Vegas Golden Knights, but they were hardly impressive in escaping with that win. The Caps still haven’t found their stride, and in fact there is no question in my mind they’re not as good as they’ve been the last couple of seasons. But Washington does have some positive momentum off a couple of wins and their confidence level should be high vs. a team they have gotten much the best of on a very regular basis.
That makes the Capitals at even money or thereabouts today’s free play. I’ll return Saturday evening with this week’s service comp selection in the NFL.
Tommy Brunson
Your comp play winner for Saturday will be NC State back at home as the underdog against visiting Clemson.
The Wolfpack are coming off a loss at Notre Dame that certainly was damaging, but there is no crying allowed, as State has a shot at knocking the Tigers off their Playoff 4 perch this afternoon at home.
Kelly Bryant coming back has certainly helped Clemson, but the Tigers could only muster a push in last week's win against Georgia Tech, and they are just 1-3-1 against the spread their last 5 games.
NC State has lost the past 5 in this series, but you can be sure they well remember last year's loss in which they missed the potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation before bowing by a TD in overtime.
Clemson is just 6-10 against the spread as the road favorite their past 16.
Look for the 'Pack to step up after last week's stinging loss to the Irish, and take this one down to the wire.
The points are the play today. Go with NC State.
2* N.C. STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Orange of Syracuse plus the points at Florida State.
Very hard to get enthusiastic about laying any wood with the sinking Seminoles who winless against the spread this season at 0-5-2, and are just 2-5 straight up for the season.
Syracuse owns a signature upset win at home over Clemson already this season, and the Orange is on a 5-0-1 spread surge this year.
The 'Cuse has been dominated in this series, as they have dropped all 4 in ACC meetings since 2003, and all 4 have come by double-digits. This is their chance to take advantage of a very down Florida State team, and with the Seminoles on a 2-6 spread downturn their last 8 as the home favorite, I will sidle up for a play on the underdog in this one.
Grab Syracuse to be a live-dog play on Saturday afternoon.
4* SYRACUSE
Tommy Brunson
My comp play winner for Saturday is Southern Miss to hammer another nail in Tennessee coach Butch Jones' coffin.
The Volunteers season from hell is winding down, and with it the likely departure of Butch Jones. The Vols are just 3-5 for the year and enter riding a 4-game straight up losing skid.
USM comes in off a shocking home loss to UAB, but the Golden Eagles have been a solid investment when playing off a loss, going 7-3 against the spread the week following a straight up regular season loss, and Southern Miss is still a cool 80% at 8-2 ATS their last 10.
As for UT, they have been burning their backers to a tune of 3-8 their last 11 at good old Rocky Top.
Want no parts of laying the points with the white-flag toting Vols.
Take Southern Miss plus the points.
3* SOUTHERN MISS
Eric Schroeder
My free pick is on the Georgia Bulldogs, big over the South Carolina Gamecocks.
I mean, rightfully so, logic tells me this one should be pretty lopsided. And the way I see it, things should play out accordingly and we should be ahead by the spread by midway through the second quarter.
BCS Playoff's top-ranked Georgia is taking on the 107th-ranked offense in the nation, between the hedges in Athens, and I just don't believe USC can keep up in this one.
I know it's dangerous to lay this many points in a game Georgia doesn't have to throw much at the Gamecocks, and complacency could be a concern. But the Bulldogs can't afford to be lenient. Not today. Not the rest of the season.
The Dawgs have to win big, and have to look like a perfect machine, in order to mantain their spot atop the BCS Playoff rankings. And with one of the most stifling defenses in the nation, I think it's conceivable to side with logic here, and lay the long chalk with the home team.
Georgia beats USC, 42-3.
3* GEORGIA