Brad Diamond
Southern Miss vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -6½
Okay, we have 5-3 Southern Miss against a UT unit that is suffering from a 3-5 mark including all of the noted program issues of late. But, just can't trust an SM offense that has been inconsistent and now must face a FRUSTRATED SEC unit ready to handle overvalued foe. The Vols will have RB Kelly Saturday once again on the field which should make all the difference in TOP. Granted UT has problems on the OL but, can't see the Vols coming up short. Remember on the defensive side UT is #1 in pass defense nationally.
John Martin
Stanford vs. Washington St
Play: Washington St +1
The Washington State Cougars have lost two of their last three games. Many have forgotten about this team now and we are starting to get some value back on them because of it. But both of those losses came on the road. The Cougars are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 38.8 to 16.8 on average. And now this will be their final home game of the season, making it Senior Day. Senior QB Luke Falk has been the best QB in school history, and he's clearly going to want to win his final home game before moving on to the NFL. Stanford was lucky to beat Oregon State 15-14 on the road last week despite being 16.5-point favorites. Bryce Love didn't play in that game and is questionable to return for this one, but even if he does he won't be 100%. The Cougars are stout against the run, giving up 141 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry. Those numbers were a lot lower before giving up 310 rushing yards to dual-threat QB Khalil Tate and Arizona last week. They won't be facing a running quarterback this week. The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 home games.
Kyle Hunter
Arizona +7½
The Arizona Wildcats rank third in the nation in yards per play. Since Khalil Tate took over as quarterback for the team, Arizona actually ranks first in the nation in yards per play.
Khalil Tate is averaging a mind-boggling 13.3 yards per carry on the season. Tate has ran for at least 8.1 yards per carry in all four of his starts this year. He is throwing it pretty well too. He has a 68.7% completion percentage. He is averaging 11.7 yards per attempt, which is a great average.
USC hasn't been very good on defense this year. The Trojans are especially weak against the run. That's a problem against Tate. USC ranks 84th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 4.55 per carry. Notre Dame ran all over this defense.
I think USC will score a lot of points here as well. Arizona's secondary isn't good. Still, I think this will be a back and forth game where grabbing more than a touchdown is a solid value.
Dave Price
Wisconsin vs. Indiana
Play: Under 48
The Key: Look for a defensive battle between two of the better defensive teams in the Big Ten today in Wisconsin and Indiana. Wisconsin is giving up just 12.9 PPG this season, while Indiana is allowing 26.7 PPG. But that 26.7 PPG is misleading due to a couple OT games. The Hoosiers only allow 342 YPG and 4.8 YPP this year. Wisconsin gives up 268 YPG and 4.4 YPP. I just don't know where the points are going to come from for Indiana, especially with QB injury concerns. And Wisconsin only managed 17 points against Purdue 3 weeks ago and 24 against Illinois last week, so it's not like their offense is hitting on all cylinders.
Chase Diamond
Ohio State vs. Iowa
Play: Ohio St -17½
This game features the 7-1 Ohio State at the 5-3 Iowa. Iowa is a tough team but this is a OSU team off a huge momentum boost and they must must win big every week to get into the top 4 and make the playoff I believe so look for them to come out and get a blowout win today. They are 37-14-1 72% ATS in their last 52 games on the road.
ASA
Auburn @ Texas A&M
Play: Auburn -15
The difference between these two programs has been quite clear recently and it appears the Aggies might be heading towards their late season swoon as per usual. Auburn has two losses this season at Clemson and at LSU but still can be considered one of the best overall teams in college football. The Tigers have destroyed SEC competition this year by outgaining five opponents by nearly 700 total yards of offense and outscoring those teams by 37, 39, 21 and 32 points. Their lone loss was by 4 in Baton Rouge. A&M meanwhile has a negative overall point differential against SEC competition of -13PPG and have been outgained by their last three SEC foes by a total of 239 yards. These two teams have played two common opponents this season in Arkansas and Mississippi State. The Tigers beat those two teams by 39 and 32 points. The Aggies beat a bad Arkansas team by 7 in OT and were beaten by 21 at home last Saturday versus the Bulldogs. Auburn had last week off and are rested and looking for payback here after losing to A&M last year. The rushing advantages clearly favor the Tigers as does the rush defense. The road team is on a 5-0 SU and ATS streak in this rivalry.
Big Al
Rangers vs. Panthers
Pick: Florida -109
The Panthers have lost their last three games. And they gave up 3, 8, and 7 goals in those three defeats. But I love Florida to rebound tonight in this, the final game of its five-game home stand, as Florida is 13-7 after allowing more than thee goals in their previous two games, and 8-4 off a home loss by more than two goals.
Harry Bondi
SYRACUSE (+7) over Florida State
We’ll gladly take the generous points here against a reeling Florida State team that is not only getting killed against the spread, going 1-5 ATS this year, including a “perfect” 0-3 at home, but there is also some serious chemistry problems in the locker room. What’s more, the Seminoles are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games when favored by 7.5 points or less. Meanwhile, the oddsmaker is showing zero respect to Syracuse. The Orangemen not only beat Clemson handily at home as a 23-point dog, but they have also hung tough and covered against Top 20 teams Miami, NC State and LSU. In fact, the Cuse has covered 14 of their last 25 games when pegged as the underdog, including a 4-0 record this year.
Dr Bob
Massachusetts @ Mississippi St.
UMass quarterback Andrew Ford (7.0 yards per pass play) is doubtful to play and backup Ross Comis is more of a runner (6.1 yards per run) than he is a passer (5.6 yppp on 61 pass plays) so expect more running from the minutemen in this game. That will shorten the game a bit, which has my model leaning under, and how much Miss State wins by depends on how much their backups play in the 4th quarter.
Minnesota @ Michigan
Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck made a mistake in switching quarterbacks from Conor Rhoda, who was pretty good (7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp) to Demry Croft, who has completed just 42.7% of his passes and has averaged only 4.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Whether Michigan has made a mistake in switching quarterbacks is yet to be determined, but Brandon Peters certainly looked good last week in completing 11 of 15 passes for 128 yards. I see value on Michigan because Minnesota’s offense isn’t as good as their season numbers with Croft at quarterback.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St.
The difference in this game is defense, as both teams are very good offensively (Oklahoma is +2.9 yppl and Oklahoma State is +1.8 yppl) while Oklahoma State is 1.2 yppl better than average defensively (excluding garbage time yards allowed by backups) while the Sooners are just 0.1 yppl better than average on that side of the ball. My math favors Oklahoma State by 4½ points so I’ll lean with the Cowboys.
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame
Notre Dame is a very good team on both sides of the ball but Wake Forest is a worthy opponent, even with the loss of top receiver Greg Dortch, who is out for the season. The Irish offense is very one-dimensional in favor of their great rushing attack but Wake Forest has been very good against the run (5.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yprp) and holding Louisville to 6.4 yprp last week was actually a good performance (the Cardinals would average 7.0 yprp on the road against an average team). The Irish should still be able to put up huge rushing numbers because they are so good in that aspect of their offense, but Brandon Wimbush is still very inconstant as a passer (51.8% completions) and Wake Forest should have decent success throwing the football even without Dortch. My math model favors Notre Dame by 12½ points so I’ll lean a big with the Demon Deacons.
LSU @ Alabama
LSU is not as good defensively this season as they normally are and the Tigers have had issues defending the run (5.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average defense), which is a major issue against an Alabama team that loves to run the ball and is among the best in the nation at doing so. My math model projects 290 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play for the Tide in this game and their defense should keep the Tigers’ offense in check, as they usually do.
Penn St. @ Michigan St.
It’s tough to know how Penn State will react after last week’s devastating come-from-ahead loss to Ohio State and I’m not sure if the Nittany Lions will have much left in their emotional tank after getting amped up to face Michigan and the Buckeyes the last two weeks. Michigan State has a very good defense but the offense will struggle against a very good Penn State defense. Overall, the math favors Penn State by just 8½ points so there really isn’t much value on the side – although Michigan State is 11-2 ATS as a conference dog of 3 points or more the last 7 seasons, including their 14-10 win as a double-digit dog at Michigan last month. I would lean under though.
Arizona @ USC
Kahlil Tate has won the Pac-12 offensive player of the week honor in all 4 weeks in which he has been the quarterback of the Wildcats and Arizona has averaged a 49 points on 568 yards at a ridiculous 9.5 yards per play. Tate has averaged 11.0 yards per pass play or higher in all 4 of those games and Arizona has averaged 7.5 yards per rushing play or higher in all 4 of those games – so those incredible offensive numbers do not appear to be a fluke given how consistently incredible they have been against some pretty good defensive teams that collectively are 0.3 yards per play better than average, which is better than USC’s defense (0.1 yppl better than average). I’m using Tate’s career yards per run average of 10.4 yards per run In my model rather than the 13.6 yprp he’s average this season and the math still projects 8.4 yprp for Arizona in this game and 9.1 yards per play.
USC, meanwhile, is projected to rack up 649 yards at 7.6 yards per play, which is enhanced by the large number of plays the Trojans are expected to run (because Arizona tends to score so quickly, which gives the ball back to USC). While Arizona is projected to average more yards per play the Wildcats aren’t going to run nearly as many plays (they’ve averaged a -30 in play differential the last 4 weeks) and overall the math favors USC by 6 points but with both teams scoring a bundle. I like the over in this game, as nobody yet has figured out how to stop Arizona’s offense with Tate at the controls and Arizona’s worse than average defense isn’t likely to slow down the Trojans, who will have more possessions than usual to rack up points.
South Florida @ Connecticut
My math model favors South Florida by 23.3 points but the Bulls’ major bowl dreams were dashed with last week’s home loss to Houston and teams coming off their first loss this late in the season have a tendency to letdown. I call it the bubble has burst letdown and it has been a consistent phenomenon. USF applies to a 13-45-1 ATS subset of a 48-90-3 ATS situation that is based on last week’s loss so I’ll lean with the Huskies as a big home dog against a Florida team that won’t like playing in the cold weather.
Nelly
Texas Tech - over Kansas State
Kansas State got in the win column last week but struggling against Kansas paints a significant gap between the Wildcats and the real contenders in the conference. Texas Tech has lost three in a row to reach a critical juncture in the season. The Red Raiders played right with Oklahoma early last week before failing to score in the final 27 minutes. Kansas State won 44-38 last season and has won five of the past six meetings but this is a season-defining game for the Red Raiders and perhaps the Kliff Kingsbury era as a loss this week likely means another losing season. The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series and a lesser Texas Tech team was favored by five in the last Lubbock meeting two years ago, a 59-44 win for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech out-gained West Virginia by 117 yards in the loss in mid-October and the Red Raiders have already played three of the top four teams tied on top of the Big XII standings to skew the numbers with Kansas State only playing two of those games so far and both of those games were at home despite getting out-gained by nearly 400 yards combined. Kansas State could have an edge in the running game in this matchup but that will be due to inept passing under Alek Delton who has taken over at quarterback. Kansas State has been out-gained in all five Big XII games, losing the yardage battle by 140 or more yards in each of the last five games and Kansas State has already played the two winless teams in the conference. Texas Tech is on an 11-4-1 ATS run at home and while Bill Snyder once held an amazing underdog track record has deteriorated and the Wildcats are just 3-5 ATS in the last eight instances as a road underdog.
Ross Benjamin
Texas vs. TCU
Play: TCU -7
TCU will be in a sour mood after last week’s 14-7 upset loss at #14 Iowa State. What better way to bounce back from their first loss of the season than with a convincing win over in state rival Texas. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a 38-7 road favorite ATS win over winless Baylor.
Any home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss by 21 points or less, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1982. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial 27.7 points per game
Nelly
Colorado vs. Arizona St
Play: Arizona St -3
Colorado improved to 5-4 with a home win over California last week but the remaining schedule is difficult as a return to the postseason looks unlikely. After a pair of big wins Arizona State was hammered by USC in a key game in the Pac-12 South standings last weekend. Arizona State has a good remaining path to find two more wins to reach the postseason but there is little margin for error and this has been an erratic squad defensively, allowing 30+ six times but holding Utah and Washington to 17 combined points. Colorado has allowed at least 27 points every Pac-12 game and following a big homecoming win the Buffaloes could fall apart on the road. Colorado is 0-4 S/U and ATS in Tempe since 2007 and this will be a third road game in four weeks for a team that has been out-gained in every Pac-12 game until last week. Last week’s win over California featured a 100-yard interception return for a 14-point swing in favor of the Buffaloes as well for some great fortune. Arizona State’s run defense has been vulnerable but the Buffaloes are gaining just 4.0 yards per rush this season while out-rushed in four of six Pac-12 games. Arizona State has an underrated home field with a 60-41-1 ATS run as a home favorite the last 20 years and just three times since 2010 have the Sun Devils lost consecutive home games. The conference numbers also have Colorado already having played Oregon State, California, and UCLA teams that rate towards the bottom of the league as the Sun Devils have had a much tougher draw at this point.
Bob Balfe
Colorado State -4
Josh Allen still gets Heisman talk because people are remembering how great he was last year, but what they fail to remember is all that NFL talent he had to throw the ball to. This year Wyoming has no skill players at all and they don’t really have a great running game. Allen has not looked that great. Colorado State has their own great QB in Nick Stevens who has suffered no drop off from last year. The Rams are rolling right now on offense because they have a balanced running and passing attack. I believe the running attack will be the key for CSU and the lack of running game for Wyoming will be key in this game.
SPORTS WAGERS
FRESNO STATE -10 over BYU
What a difference a week makes. After doubling their win total with a huge 41-20 win over San Jose State, the talk in Provo is about how quickly the Cougars can turn it around citing this week’s opponent in Fresno State as the standard in that category. With the win last week, BYU left the door open for a shot at a bowl game if it wins out but asking for a second straight win for this team is a stretch to be sure. Aside from last week against a SJSU squad that can’t stop the marching band, the Cougars offense has been near nonexistent. BYU put up just 17 against one of the worst defenses in the country at ECU two weeks ago and combined for just 17 points in its two prior games to that. Against teams with a winning record, the Cougars have been a low percentage play by failing to cover in their last five attempts against winning opposition.
Fresno State’s turnaround from a 1-11 season in 2016 to its 5-3 record so far this season has been impressive, especially when you consider two of the Bulldogs three losses came against powerhouses Washington and Alabama. Fresno State went hard at the Crimson Tide and that performance left an impression on us. The Bulldogs had covered all seven of their games coming into last Saturday’s home game with UNLV where they went from playing plucky underdog to three touchdown chalk. We were weary last week that the Bulldogs money train may have left the station after huge wins over New Mexico, and SDSU. With the market all aboard last week, the Bulldogs laid an egg in and lost outright to UNLV. Week to week overreactions are most prominent in college football and after fading the Bulldogs when their stock was at its highest, we are now looking back their way to rebound here. What would this line have been if Fresno State took care of business last week? Even with that blip on the radar, the Bulldogs have been very consistent on both sides of the ball this season. Fresno State quarterback Marcus McMaryion had gone 98 pass attempts without an interception and the Bulldogs are second in the country in tackles for a loss allowed but it’s this team’s defense that is the real star of the show. The Bulldogs are 16th in the country in total yards allowed (308.3) and in four home games this season, FSU has allowed 48 total points (just 12 points per game).
After last week’s results we can understand how taking back double digits with a seemingly reinvigorated Cougars team might be appealing but in the week to week world of college football we are always looking for over and under reactions. BYU covered a huge number at home while Fresno State was embarrassed just as the market was taking notice. That the total in this game is just 48 (which is low by college standards), BYU covering this large spread looks even more probable. Despite the poor results this season the Cougars are still a more well-known commodity than the Bulldogs which makes them easier to back especially for the casual fans who are now paying attention, as the Bowl season approaches. We like what Fresno State brings to the table and expect them to rebound here. One of the best spots to back a double digit favorite is the week after that favorite lost outright as a double digit favorite. Only this week, those double digits come down from 21½ (last week) to 11½ this week. That's our prompt to step in.
INDIANA +11½ over Wisconsin
QB Peyton Ramsey left last week’s game at Maryland twice during the second half with what appeared to be a lower body injury. IU coach Tom Allen said as recently as Wednesday that he was unsure if Ramsey would be able to play against Wisconsin, so the door could be open for Richard Lagow to make his first start since Sept. 30 at Penn State. The senior performed admirably during last weekend’s second half, completing 12 of his 21 passes for 131 yards so the QB situation does not concern us. It’s also factored into the line.
Both backfields are ailing. Wisconsin freshman Jonathan Taylor, the Big Ten’s leading rusher, left last week’s game with a leg injury and is categorized as questionable. Indiana’s Morgan Ellison and Mike Majette missed last week’s game with unspecified injuries. Whether they’ll be available has not been announced. Taylor would be the biggest loss of the bunch but again, none of that matters to us. We’re merely setting the table for a lot of questionable injuries today. Our focus from now until the season ends will be to fade the Badgers, a team that has played one of the softest Power 5 slates in the country.
Most of the media talk we've heard surrounding the Badgers this offseason centers around what a consistent machine the Wisconsin program has become. Wisconsin has never won by out-recruiting the rest of the Big Ten, which means the coaching has to be excellent. There seems to be a general assumption that it is, but while we think Paul Chryst is one of the best pro-style play-callers of his generation, anointing him even a basic success as a head coach is premature. Chryst posted a .500 record at a solid Pitt program before being called home to Madison and while he's lost just three games in each of his first two seasons at his alma mater, it's important to remember that it's still just two years plus with players that another staff recruited. Two years ago, we wrote that Chryst would fail to replicate the accomplishments of the Bret Bielema era and would eventually disappoint, but that the obvious decline wouldn't really begin until he lost rising star Dave Aranda to a bigger job. That happened after just one year, and now Chryst has lost Justin Wilcox as well. The result is a third defensive boss in three years, and while the last guy had coordinated defenses at Boise State, Southern California, Tennessee and Washington, the new guy has coordinated exactly never. Last year, the team was fueled by the suggestions that the schedule was too tough for a big year. Mission accomplished, 2016 doubters proved wrong and they’ve been proved wrong so far this season too or have they? Now ask yourself, the Badgers best win this year came against whom? Purdue? Maryland? Nebraska? Northwestern? Pick one and it doesn’t matter because they mean nothing. You see that #4 beside the Badgers name in the rankings? It’s false, as the Badgers might not even be the fourth best team in the conference but you’ll pay the price of a fourth ranked team in the country here. Upset possibility.
MICHIGAN -15½ over Minnesota
Minnesota started the season 3-0, and even though they are now 4-4, they still have credibility because of a bunch of misleading scores that are close on paper. The Gophers lost 30-27 to Michigan State. That looks good but it was 30-13 with under three minutes left when Minnesota scored two garbage time TD’s to make it look close. It wasn’t. Last week’s 17-10 loss to Iowa also looks respectable but it was 14-0 at the half and Gophers QB Demry Craft completed just 9 of 29 passes for 139 yards. Trust us when we tell you that the roster that P.J. Fleck inherited is just not equipped for life in the Big Ten. There was natural attrition as a result of the regime change, and while the players have largely responded to Fleck and embraced the new culture, there's not enough talent or depth on hand.
The lineup is full of underclassmen and injuries are mounting as the season wears on. Minnesota's extreme youth is continuing to wear down as it navigates the rugged conference season. The secondary is the greenest and thinnest unit in the conference and its offense has no shot against Michigan. Don’t be deceived by the defense's solid pass defense numbers or the close final scores that are Minnesota’s résumé.
Michigan is not having a great year but make no mistake that the Wolverines are fielding one of the best defensive units in the county. It's the offense that's been broken, thanks to both an underperforming quarterback group and the failure of a new-look staff to jell quickly.
Michigan has three offensive coaches with a coordinator title, two of whom are new. It is taking time for that side of the ball to find its identity and play-calling rhythm but it's coming. Quality and cohesion of coaches will not be an issue under Jim Harbaugh, and his rare staffing mistakes will be corrected quickly. The quarterback dilemma might also be resolving itself, as Brandon Peters led scoring drives on his first three possessions after replacing an ineffective John O'Korn in a 35-14 win over Rutgers. After this one, the Wolverines play Maryland so the schedule allows for some room to break the new signal-caller in gradually before the season closes with Wisconsin and Ohio State. The staff will get the passing game on track with Peters and in the meantime the defense is suffocating and the ground game punishing. The Wolverines are not done improving and we'd suggest that the lowest Michigan's stock will be for the next decade is right now, at fourth place in the Big Ten East, unranked in the AP poll and having won and covered just two of its past 10 games. We're investing in the Wolverines to absolutely crush this overmatched visitor by 30 or more, let alone 15½. If you make one wager today, this should be it.
Wake Forest +14½ over NOTRE DAME
The Fighting Irish found themselves in the crosshairs of the college football playoff as the committee released its top four ahead of the upcoming Bowl season. The Irish don’t really need an introduction here but that’s the point. This is a blue blood program and one of the most popular teams in the country. The other important thing to remember here is everything is about money and with three southern teams currently dominating the top four, the networks and the NCAA are begging for one of ND or Ohio State to win out so there will be representation north of the Mason-Dixon. On the field, after just a four-win season a year ago, the Irish have gone run-heavy this season but with that have become totally one dimensional. It’s hard to argue with success though and Notre Dame has been very good to the market by covering seven of its eight games this season. The Irish are crushing everything in their path with huge back to back home wins over NC State (35-14) and USC (49-14) so we can understand the appeal of laying double digits against an unranked Wake Forest team that appears to be a big step down in competition. Many in the market expected a letdown for Notre Dame last week but the Irish rolled anyway against another ranked opponent and are now in the national title discussion but there is a reason why they play the games. Notre Dame has two huge road games before they wrap up the season, next week at Miami and Week 13 at Stanford neither of which are easy. The Irish’s stock is at a season high and with that comes inflated prices. If this team is reading their press clippings, and they all do, their dream season could be over before they make it to Miami. Watch any college football preview show this week and they all opened with how good Notre Dame is. That’s our prompt to jump off.
The Demon Deacons picked up a nice signature win last week at home over Louisville by winning 42-32 as a small home dog. Wake Forest is well coached and as far as we’re concerned, this team is still under the radar in the ACC. Head coach Dave Clawson and crew should be well prepped for this game after three straight against quality competition at Clemson, at Georgia Tech and vs Louisville. The Deacons gave the defending champion Tigers all they could handle and that game was much closer than the 28-14 score would indicate. Wake’s high octane offense put up 625 yards against the Cardinals last week and the defense leads the nation in tackles for a loss. We trust they’ve watched tape of the Irish’s game against Georgia for the blueprint on how to stop the ND running game. Wake Forest will be the fourth program that proven builder Dave Clawson takes from losing seasons to double-digit wins. Clawson previously authored turnarounds at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green, and his vision is being executed the same way in Winston-Salem: with patience, redshirting and gradual roster building. When the two-deep finally fills with upperclassmen proficient in both the program's playbook and its culture, the wins have historically come for Clawson's teams and that's where Wake is now. A formerly pedestrian offense has finally caught up with a reliable defense and the roster now has ACC-caliber depth. Last week's victory over Louisville was no fluke and the Deacs will continue to build upon the 2016 breakthrough that saw the school's first winning season since 2008. This bunch is ready to compete with anybody and has absolute great value taking back inflated prices like this.
Bruce Marshall
Hawaii vs. UNLV
Pick: Hawaii
Realize Hawaii not covering numbers lately, but Bows have been close a few times, have some balance with Dru Brown and Saint-Juste, and have plenty of fans from the islands who live in Vegas, Also, for Bows, a relatively easy trip by their standards, not requiring a connecting flight. At Sam Boyd, this is always about a 50-50 crowd split. Don't trust UNLV, hasn't won back-to-back for Sanchez since 2015, and one of those was vs. Idaho State. Defense still suspect. Stanton is capable at QB, so if Rogers is out it is not that much of a negative, but other reasons not to trust UNLV, especially at this price.