Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 5th, 2016

Jesse Schule

Texas at Texas Tech
Pick: Texas

As bad as things have been for Charlie Strong and the Longhorns, they come into this week's game at Texas Tech as winners of two of their last three, fresh off an upset win over #8 Baylor last week. Junior D'Onta Foreman ran all over the Bears defense, picking up 250 yards and two TDs on 32 carries. He should be looking forward to facing the Red Raiders, who rank among the worst in the country in defending the run. Opponents are averaging 213 rushing yards per game, and 5.4 yards per carry against Texas Tech.

Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the country in passing, but he's been battling a shoulder injury the last few weeks. He threw for just 206 yards with 2 TDs and an INT on 24-of-39 passing against TCU last week. That likely won't be good enough against a Texas team that can score points with the best of them. There is also a revenge angle here, as the Red Raiders beat the Horns in Texas 48-45 last season. The Longhorns had won the previous six meetings, and they had covered the spread in five of those games.

Bryan Leonard

Florida State vs. NC State
Play: NC State +5½

Have to think that this is a letdown situation for the Seminoles here off a bye week and the 37-34 loss to Clemson. That was a huge game for Florida State and the team shot themselves in the foot with late penalties. The Seminoles have beaten the Wolfpack the last three seasons by double digits, so a lackadaisical effort is surely possible. The team also has a quick turnaround playing Boston College Friday night.

If State has anything left after facing Clemson and Louisville on the road in back to back games we find out here. It sure didn’t show well last week against Boston College, losing by 7 as a 14 point favorite. But now back at home with the Seminoles in town should bring motivation.

Florida State has played a nine point tougher schedule, so this team could be running on fumes. Especially considering it already has three losses, and any preseason goals are out the window.

Oskeim Sports

Louisiana Tech at North Texas
Play: North Texas +20.5

Following as disastrous 1-11 season (tied for the worst record in program history), North Texas hired head coach Seth Littrell to turn the program around. And, despite what many thought was going to be a rebuilding year in Denton for the 1st-year head coach, the Mean Green are 4-4 SU and 5-2 ATS this season, including three upset wins over Rice (42-35; 6.5-point underdogs), Marshall (38-21; 13.5-point underdogs) and Army (35-18; 17.5-point underdogs).

The players have a renewed sense of purpose with bowl eligibility only two wins away, and the Mean Green are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus .501 or greater opposition and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Louisiana Tech is playing its best football of the season, but the Bulldogs are due for a letdown after their 61-16 win over hapless Rice last week.

Indeed, Louisiana Tech is a money-burning 4-14 ATS on the road after covering the spread as a double-digit favorite. Moreover, the Bulldogs could easily overlook the vastly-improved Mean Green who they have comfortably defeated 42-21 and 56-13 in the previous two meetings. Let's also note that Louisiana Tech is allowing 34.0 points and 463 total yards per game at 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.

Finally, my math model favors the Bulldogs by less than two touchdowns so we are getting excellent line value with the Homecoming underdog. With North Texas standing at 10-5-1 ATS as an underdog and 12-5-1 ATS as a home underdog of more than seven points, grab the inflated number with the Mean Green.

DAVE COKIN

VIRGINIA AT WAKE FOREST
PLAY: VIRGINIA +3

Virginia continues to take steps forward under Bronco Mendenhall. The Cavaliers have miles to travel before they reach their desired destination, and they are strictly in build mode right now. Wake Forest remains one win away from clinching bowl eligibility after losing outright at home last week to Army.

There is the potential of a letdown here for the road team. The Cavaliers just missed scoring a massive upset last week against Louisville. But the fact they couldn’t close that show lessens my worry somewhat. Had Virginia gotten the headline grabbing shocker, I definitely would be avoiding them here. I’m banking on them being more frustrated than flat and will look for the Cavs to be ready for action this Saturday.

The Demon Deacons are a decent defensive entry, but their offense just isn’t very good. Moreover, I don’t really like the QB situation. John Wolford was the starting signal caller, but he had lost his QB1 status to Kendall Hinton. The coaching staff has made it abundantly clear that Hinton gets the job back as soon as his injury is healed. It’s merely speculation on my part, but Wolford as what amounts to the lame duck starter doesn’t seem to me to be an ideal situation. Wolford certainly isn’t playing very well, and in fact he’s been really bad in his last two games. I really don’t see that changing to a great degree this Saturday.

As far as the numbers go, it’s a pretty even football game. In spite of being just 2-6, Virginia edges out the Demon Deacons in the overall stat comparison. That’s a big key for me here. So is my thought that Wake Forest just isn’t playing confident offense with Hinton still awaiting clearance to get back into game action. Bottom line is I don’t have a problem asking the underdog visitor to rise up and win one on the road. I’m taking Virginia plus the points.

Andrew Lange

Maryland / Michigan Over 27.5 1st Half

Another week, another first half over for the Michigan Wolverines as they jumped out to a 27-10 lead over Michigan State. On the season, Michigan has outscored its opponents 229-38 in the first half and a more modest 144-55 in the second half. Below are the halftime scores of UM's eight games.

Michigan's First Half Scores
vs. Hawaii - 35-0
vs. UCF - 34-7
vs. Colorado - 24-21
vs. Penn State - 28-0
vs. Wisconsin - 7-0
at Rutgers - 43-0
vs. Illinois - 31-0
at Michigan State - 27-10

Under the watch of Jim Harbaugh, the Wolverines have excelled at a lot of things this season, most notably beating up on the weak. Wisconsin, and its ninth-ranked defense, was the only team to put up any real type of resistance against this offense. This week sets up well for another lopsided halftime score with Maryland headed to the Big House. Since holding Purdue to 205 total yards, the Terps have allowed 6.4 yards per play over their last four games. Last week was particularly alarming as Indiana marched up and down the field to the tune of 650 yards (7.8 ypp). And with quarterback Perry Hills healthy, Maryland's offense should be able to punch in at least one score against Michigan's vaunted defense. Anything less than 31 warrants another first half over.

Indian Cowboy

Florida (-5.5) over Arkansas

Though Arkansas comes off a horrendous loss to Auburn by a score of 56-3 as that was our 6-unit selection just two weeks ago as we predicted Auburn to rout them, we still like them to get beat relatively handily this week. Arkansas will come out with pride and will likely keep it close in the first half, but note that Florida is one of the best teams at doing what they do well and taking away the strengths of the opposing team. Remember, this is a Florida team that is now ranked in the top 10 in the country and has a Nick Saban disciple in Jim McElwain, who is one of the most underrated coaches in the country. A former offensive coordinator for Alabama, former Head Coach of Colorado State, and now coach of Florida, he has this team clicking very well and this team's only loss was to Tennessee was by 10 points on the road. This will likely be a low-scoring affair, but we like Florida to get it done once again by a tune of 27-13 as they end up covering once again this week for their 3rd straight cover.

Robert Ferringo

Missouri (+7.5) over South Carolina

In regards to this free play, bad teams shouldn't be laying points. I know I have been a little higher on Missouri this year, with nothing to show for it, but I think that these guys are desperate. They have lost four straight games (SU and ATS) and this is a team that needs something good to happen very quickly. They really should be 4-4 right now with wins over UGA and MTSU that slipped through their fingers. I also think that South Carolina is primed for a letdown this week after their fluke win over Tennessee last Saturday. This is the same USC team that lost to bad Georgia squad and then barely beat Massachusetts by six as a 20-point favorite. USC is 4-4, but if you look at their numbers it is almost impossible to figure out how. Three of their four wins have come by less than a touchdown, and this is a game that I think the Tigers will have a chance to win outright. Missouri is 17-8 ATS after a loss and South Carolina is 2-9 ATS when they play down and face a team below .500.

Alan Harris

Nebraska / Ohio St Under 52.5

Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Nebraska Cornhuskers hit the road to take on the Ohio St. Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH on Saturday night. Nebraska has posted a perfect 4-0 record to the under in their last four road games and they have stayed under the total in their last six games overall. They have also gone 5-1 to the under in their last six games following a straight up win and they have that same 5-1 record to the under in their last six games following a game where they allowed more than 200 yards on the ground. The Buckeyes have also been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone 4-1 to the under in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning record, and they are a perfect 4-0 to the under in their last four home games. They have also gone 14-4 to the under in their last 18 games following a straight up win, and they have stayed under the total in seven of their last 10 games after an ATS loss. Throw in the fact that these two teams are a combined 16-2 to the under in their last 18 Big Ten games and that's where we'll have our play as we expect the defenses to dominate this one in The Horseshoe on Saturday night.

DAVE COKIN

ALABAMA AT LSU
PLAY: LSU +7.5

It doesn’t get much more compelling than this. Alabama risks its perfect record and #1 ranking as they head to Baton Rouge for a huge game with LSU.

I don’t need to try and sell anyone on the Crimson Tide. They’re a great team and Nick Saban is as good as it gets when it comes to winning the big games.

But I will try and sell readers on LSU. The Tigers have been a completely different team since Les Miles was relieved of his head coaching duties. Ed Orgeron has lit a fire under the Bayou Bengals and I’m pretty sure that interim tag currently assigned to Orgeron will be history if LSU can scored the upset on Saturday night.

Using my full season numbers, I’d have Alabama as ten-point favorites here. But I think it’s pretty obvious there has to be a major adjustment when weighing the data. The LSU team we’ve watched the last three games since the coaching change took place bears almost no resemblance to the Tigers that were taking the field under Miles.

The number I came up with based on what LSU has done post-Miles is much closer. I’ve still got Alabama favored, but only by roughly five points. So I’m seeing some value with the home dog.

My primary concern is on the matchup itself. LSU still has to be a run first team as that’s their obvious strength on offense. The bad news for the Tigers is that running on the Crimson Tide is about as tough as it gets. Alabama has a great rushing defense. Just a pair of teams have even reached triple digits on the ground, and in each case it was just barely.

That’s the crux of my hesitation to give LSU a bet here. Danny Etling is doing a good job of managing the LSU offense. But if the Tigers can’t run effectively and Etling has to make things happen through the air, I’m simply not sure he’s up to the task.

The good news for LSU is that the defense is playing spectacularly well, and in fact they were also doing so while Miles was still running the show. There’s no denying the Tide can roll with the football, but I don’t see them having an easy time against the speedy and talented Tigers.

I see Alabama winning this game, but I sure don’t think it’s a runaway. My lean is to LSU getting more than a touchdown, and at worst, it’s one of my stronger opinions, even if it’s just short of making my Saturday card.

Otto Sports

Nebraska at Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -17

Ohio State knows that its only chance to get into the College Football Playoffs is to beat Michigan in the regular season finale. But before the Buckeyes get there, they must face Nebraska and then back-to-back road games at Maryland and Michigan State. As bettors, we don't pay a lot of attention to the Playoff Rankings but it's hard not to notice how generous they are towards the Big Ten with five teams in the top 12. One of those teams is Nebraska (10th) who somehow checks in ahead of Florida, LSU, Oklahoma and a few others they'd assuredly be an underdog to on a neutral field. So while Ohio State has its eye on November 26, this is an opportunity to beat a "quality" foe.

Following their loss to Penn State, the Buckeyes limped past Northwestern 24-20. They never trailed but the box score was very even. It was a classic "letdown" spot as OSU never sniffed a pointspread cover as -26 favorites. Note that OSU opened that game -21.5. This week, we see more betting market love towards the Buckeyes with the line blasted from -13.5 to -17.

Meanwhile, Nebraska enters off of its first loss of the season as it fell in overtime, 23-17, at Wisconsin. The box score was fairly lopsided as the Badgers outgained the Cornhuskers by nearly 1.5 yards per play. Nebraska's schedule does come up a little light. The three-point home win over Oregon doesn't look nearly as impressive considering the Ducks' struggles. And Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue are all currently .500 or below. And despite that, Nebraska has outgained its opponents by only 0.5 ypp (+0.33 ypp vs. Big Ten). Ohio State's slate has been far more challenging with road games at Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Penn State. The Buckeyes are nearly 2.0 ypp better than its opponents and +1.3 ypp vs. Big Ten.

I don't think the line gets any higher than -17 and would recommend waiting to see if there is any buy-back. If so, I think the home side prevails by margin in this matchup.

Bruce Marshall

Charlotte +19.5

Recent performances by under-the-radar Charlotte make it hard to overlook the 49ers when they travel to Southern Miss on Saturday. Surging Charlotte has covered three straight, winning two of those outright as an underdog, but we are also keen to buck the Golden Eagles, with just one cover in their last seven games and 0-4 vs. the line as host at Roberts Stadium.

Matt Josephs

Virginia Tech vs. Duke
Play: Duke +11

I'm a huge fan of the Hokies and what they've done so far this season. They are outscoring their opponents by an average of 36-20. Jerod Evans has surpassed expectations as he runs this offense. Even better is the defense that is holding teams to just 321.5 yards per game. Duke has put down some odd results with a win at Notre Dame, but also losses to Army and Wake Forest at home. This is a Blue Devils team that took Louisville to the brink a few weeks ago as well. I wonder about the situation for the Hokies who are playing their fourth road game in just under a month. Now, the atmosphere will be tilted to the road team a bit as their fans travel down to Durham. These two teams have swapped road victories in the series the last two years. Duke has covered 21 of their last 34 games overall. Virginia Tech is by far the better team, but I'm hoping for one of those good Blue Devil efforts.

Freddy Wills

Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -10

I will take the Tarheels here in a spread that looks a little too big, but I think North Carolina is the 3rd or 4th best team in this conference. Georgia Tech any time they have stepped up in competition in the conference have been beat by double digits that includes Clemson and Miami at home. Now they go on the road to face North Carolina, whom arguably has better offense than both of those teams. It’s also worth noting that North Carolina is off the bye which is a huge advantage when facing the option. I also like how this defense looked the last 3 weeks before the bye.

Mitch Trubisky is arguably the best throwing QB that Georgia Tech has faced and this offense can score quick which is bad news for Georgia Tech because they are 120th in sack %, 113th in adjusted pass defense, and 94th vs. the run. When you see Georgia Tech giving up 37 and 35 to Pittsburgh and Duke you have to feel confident that North Carolina off a bye may be able to get into the 40’s or even 50’s in this game.

Marc Lawrence

Pittsburgh vs. Miami
Pick: Pittsburgh

Edges - Panthers: 6-0 ATS with revenge under head coach Pat Narduzzi; and series visitor 4-0 SUATS. Hurricanes: 1-4 ATS last five as ACC home chalk, and 0-4 SUATS last four games after 4-0 SUATS start under Mark Richt. With the visiting team 13-4-1 ATS in Narduzzi’s games, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.