Teddy Covers
Washington at California
Play: California +17
There was a time, earlier in my handicapping career when I was fixated on taking strong defensive underdogs in college football; teams that could cover pointspreads without having to put up touchdowns in bunches. But that era of college football ended (without much fan fare from the betting markets), with the advent of the high octane spread offense, like the one Sonny Dykes is running at Cal these days.
In the football universe circa 2016, my entire thought process involving bigger underdogs has flipped from where it was 15 years ago. In the modern world, I want my underdogs to be able to score early and often, even if they are defensively weak. Teams that can put up points in bunches tend to be live underdogs, capable of trading points OR coming through the backdoor should they struggle early.
Underdogs of seven points or more are 4-1 ATS in Cal games this year, with the Bears unable to cover bigger numbers as chalk (their defensive weakness), but consistently able to trade points with other strong offenses. However, that one loss came last week at USC, when Cal allowed a whopping 398 rushing yards at 8.3 yards per carry. The betting markets react one way off a box score like one; with anti-Cal money showing this week.
Yet it’s surely worth noting that the Bears only lost ATS by two points in that game, DESPITE that woeful defensive showing. The game ended with Cal at the Trojans 10-yard line, in position to punch in the backdoor TD if they had just a few more seconds on the clock. Davis Webb still threw for 333 yards against a top notch defense. Cal got annihilated – as bad as they can play – yet they were still live to cover the number.
Count me as a Washington believer – this isn’t a fade the Huskies type of play. But that doesn’t mean Washington is worthy of anything but a fade this week. The rationale? Washington is priced too high and this is a real road test for a team that has enjoyed an extraordinarily favorable schedule thusfar, leaving them as an overvalued commodity.
To put this pointspread in perspective, Washington was a +2 home underdog against Cal last year. The Huskies lost that game, at home, by six, and outgained by a whopping 262 yards. Yes, Washington is better in 2016, but factoring in the homefield, there’s been a power rating adjustment of nearly FOUR touchdowns from last year to this year. And before we anoint the Huskies as truly elite, take a good, hard look at who they’ve beaten. At home, the Huskies have knocked off Rutgers, Portland State, Idaho, slumping Stanford and lowly Oregon State. On the road, woeful Arizona took them to OT and the blowout at Oregon comes with an asterisk – the Ducks allowed 50 points per game in PAC-12 play while losing their first five conference games. Last week at Utah in their first step-up test on the road, they failed to cover the inflated pointspread, breaking a 24-24 tie as -10 road chalk only with a punt return touchdown. Expect Cal to hang in this ATS range.
Alatex Sports
East Carolina at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -9.5
This line is getting bet and has now reached Tulsa -9.5/-10 or it would have been on my card. I bet the Golden Hurricanes at -7 and there is still a little value on them at this price. I have made money with Tulsa this year, including last week as a seven-point dog at Memphis; a game they dominated and won 59-30. Tulsa’s only losses this year came at Ohio State and at Houston, a game that was tied with two minutes remaining. Over the past two weeks they have really gotten it going on offense, combining for 109 points and 1,164 total yards of offense. Quarterback Dane Evans has been sharp, with no picks in either game and the running game led by Joe Flanders has gained over 600 yards on the ground. Tulsa should keep the offense rolling against a poor East Carolina defense this week.
ECU is coming off a 41-3 win over UConn which snapped their five-game losing skid. Prior to the good showing on defense against UConn, the Pirates had allowed an average of 38 points per game during their skid. However, UConn is nowhere near the class of offense that they will face this week on the road at Tulsa. UConn has scored 27 points or less in all of its games this year while Tulsa averages 39.9 points per game on the year. The fast paced Tulsa offense leads the nation in plays per game at 89 and I like to back fast paced teams when they get rolling. Agree 100% with the line move as this one projects to be a blowout.
Drew Martin
South Alabama at UL-Monroe
Play: South Alabama -13
The South Alabama Jaguars won their first Sun Belt game of the season this past weekend with a hard-fought 13-10 triumph over Georgia State. They now take on a reeling UL-Monroe squad that profiles as a prime fade candidate down the stretch.
ULM is without their starting quarterback, Garrett Smith, who is out for the season with a knee injury. That leaves redshirt freshman Will Collins in charge of the offense. Since Collins took over, ULM was blown out at New Mexico and against Arkansas State. In the two games without Smith ULM has yet to top 165 yards passing. The Warhawks have had success at times running the football but it’s more volume than effectiveness with 190 ypg but only 4.1 ypc vs. the Sun Belt.
South Alabama has been a tough handicap all year long. This is a team who went into Starkville and knocked off Mississippi State and also beat one of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference in San Diego State. On the negative side, USA did not record its first Sun Belt win until last week. The schedule though softens in a big way with ULM, Idaho and New Mexico State remaining.
This is an odd price range for the Jaguars having been favored in only one Sun Belt game (-5 vs. Georgia State). But it’s warranted considering the step down in class. Considerable gap in talent and capability has me calling for a blowout with from the road side.
Ian Cameron
Memphis at SMU
Play: SMU +3
My clients and I cashed a 20* AAC Game Of The Year winner against Memphis last week when Tulsa walloped them 59-30 as underdogs. I see another opportunity this week to do the same as they trek to Dallas to face an improving SMU Mustangs squad. Memphis is on a 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS slide including a winless 0-3 ATS record in three road games at Ole Miss, Tulane and Navy. Memphis has allowed 5.5 yards per play and 5 yards per rush this season and have surrendered 1,659 total yards and 128 points in three of their last four games in conference play against Temple, Navy and Tulsa. The Tigers have been unable to stop the run or the pass and have been outgained by 88 yards or more in four of their last five contests. The offense is no doubt capable but it hasn’t been enough to overcome their woeful stop unit.
SMU on the other hand is far healthier than it was as earlier this season and as a result, the Mustangs are playing their best football. They've covered three straight games and won two straight including a huge 38-16 win against Houston (outgained the Cougars by over 100 yards). They avoided a letdown by coming out strong with a 21-10 halftime lead at Tulane last week. The Green Wave punched back but SMU held on for a 35-31 win. Prior to that, SMU lost 43-40 at Tulsa; the same squad that annihilated Memphis 59-30 on the road last week. Quarterback Ben Hicks, who struggled when he first took over for the injured Matt Davis, has played better in recent games with seven touchdowns and and just two interceptions. SMU’s offense should have just as much success moving the football in this game against a Memphis defense that has been very vulnerable. Oddsmakers have picked up on Memphis' decline from last year but they are still undervaluing SMU who is a far different and better team than what we saw in September. Wrong team favored in my opinion as we fire with the home underdog.
Rob Veno
Virginia Tech -10.5
Not at all confident that there’s much left in the Duke tank physically or mentally as they head into this game. Last week’s all-out effort in 38-35 loss at Georgia Tech was a brutal and a potentially finalizing blow to the Blue Devils who rallied from a 28-7 halftime deficit to take a 35-31 fourth quarter lead only to lose following a late Yellow Jacket touchdown. Furthering the frustration was the demoralizing loss of top back Jela Duncan whose season-ending leg injury was described by David Cutcliffe as “gut wrenching." Not real sure Duke can get up off the mat here despite the fact that it is a home game and one where a win is much needed since at 3-5, they must have victories in three of their final four games to become bowl eligible.
The other sideline is a bit rosier as Virginia Tech is in high gear right now after claiming a 39-36 road victory at Pittsburgh last Thursday night. Unlike banged up Duke, Tech is currently in the ACC Coastal Division driver’s seat with three remaining games in which they’ll be favored in (including this one) standing between them and a spot in the Conference Championship game. Look for Justin Fuente to have them fully motivated here after having a couple extra days to prepare and focus.
Fundamental advantages are clearly in favor of the Hokies here especially with Duncan out. Backup Shaun Wilson was averaging a very pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry heading into last week’s game and then in relief of Duncan he got loose for a 57-yard run (lost fumble at Georgia Tech 3-yard line on the play) making his 10 carry, 109-yard performance look very nice. Expect his numbers to be converted back into the very average category here by Virginia Tech’s stout run defense which is allowing only 3.2 ypc on the season. Love the future for Duke redshirt freshman quarterback Daniel “The Truth” Jones but in what looks to shape up as a one dimensional offense on Saturday, he’ll be hard pressed to beat opposing DC Bud Foster’s troops on his own. Meanwhile the visitors rushing attack which is accounting for 191.6 ypg is likely to help create another balanced VT offensive effort. Jerod Evans is in full stride right now and along with his receiving corps is capable of an explosive play on every snap.
Not in agreement with the money which has pushed this game from the opener of Virginia Tech -12 down to -10.5. Expect the Hokies to post a solid double-digit victory.
Rob Vinciletti
Charlotte vs. Southern Miss
Play: Southern Miss -19½
The Golden Eagles are home here today against a Charlotte team that comes in off an upset dog win at Marshall and a prior road dog win. Today Charlotte will get bounced by a Solid SO. Miss team that has a big defensive and offensive edges and crushed Charlotte last year on the road by 34. For the system we want to play on home favorites off a home favored win by 10 or more and spread loss vs an opponent off a +5 or more dog win. this system cashes over 85% long term. Look for SO. Miss to coast in this one.
Dennis Macklin
Maryland vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -30½
If you are going to lay this kind of points in college football, you probably want to do it with Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines. Although I understand that Harbaugh is a pretty good guy in life, on the football field he wouldn't stop and pee on you if you were on fire. Cutting edge analysis I know but what I'm trying to say is that Harbaugh doesn't take the foot off the gas for anybody. In fact, he did his one good deed for 2016 when he slammed on the brakes vs. Illinois in deference to Illini HC and fellow compadre Lovie Smith. He did lead that game 35-0 at the half. Terp coach Durkin was the Wolverine DC last year but I don't think that will buy him any mercy here. With style points important for both the Wolverines as a playoff seed and Jabrill Peppers as a Heisman longshot I can see Michigan playing the full game. They also have at Iowa on deck so Harbaugh could use this as a tightner after basically two walkovers.
Scott Spreitzer
Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Play: Northwestern +7
This one offers some of the same reasoning we had in last week's Nebraska-Wisconsin contest, when we said on-air it's awfully tough to lay more than a FG in a game you expect to be a "first team to 20" affair. And coming off four straight bruising battles, the Badgers gas tank may be nearing empty. We knew going into the game against the Huskers that the Badgers were short-handed at LB and DB. In fact, leading tackler LB Jack Cichy was lost for the season a couple weeks ago and the LB corps was already short-handed. Meanwhile, Wisconsin's offense ranks 99th in yards passing per game, 96th in total offense, and they average just 24 ppg. Northwestern was a bit shaky early this season, but HC Pat Fitzgerald has turned things around. The Wildcats have won three of their last four and came within four points of upsetting Ohio State last weekend. Northwestern doesn't defend the pass well, but they are strong against the run, which is more important when facing the Badgers. Northwestern has covered four straight games, overall, and seven in a row at home against Wisconsin. They knocked off the Badgers 13-7 at Camp Randall Stadium last season, sacking the QB five times and holding Wiscy to minus-26 yards rushing and 203 total yards.
Brandon Lee
Iowa vs. Penn St
Play: Iowa +7
I'm not buying Penn State being the 12th best team in the country, which is what they were ranked in the fist CFP poll. This is a team that lost to Pitt, who is a middle of the pack team in the ACC and got destroyed by 39 at Michigan. Not to mention they only beat Temple by 7 and Minnesota by 3. Yes, they beat Ohio State at home as a big dog, but that's a huge rivalry and it was an electric atmosphere at home. They aren't going to be as motivated here against an Iowa team that has failed to live up to expectations. The big difference from this year's Iowa team and the one that went 12-0 in the regular season last year, is they just aren't as fortunate in close games. Their 8-point loss to Wisconsin is their biggest defeat of the season. This is their chance to get a statement win and remind everyone they can't be counted out of the Big Ten West race. The Hawkeyes also come in off a bye, so they have had two weeks to prepare for Penn State. Iowa's biggest weakness is their offense is dependent on being able to run the ball. All 3 of their losses were against strong run defenses. Penn State ranks 82nd in run defense, giving up 183.4 ypg and 4.5 yards/carry. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Iowa won this game outright.
Chip Chirimbes
Syracuse vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson -26½
After narrowly defeating Florida State (37-34) Clemson owns a 20 game winning streak to longest in the nation as well as 14 straight ACC contests. The Tigers have won five times by less then seven points and are just 4-4 ATS and are so due to blow someone out and here enters Syracuse. The Orange how surrender 323 points per game won't be able to stay with Clemson defensively. Clemson jumped out quick last week 14-0 against Florida State and them let-up. That's not happing this week.
Jack Jones
Louisville vs. Boston College
Play: Louisville -25
The betting public has been burnt by backing Louisville of late after their fast start. The Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall, mainly because they've been asked to lay huge numbers. And while this is another big 25-point spread against Boston College, I don't think it's big enough.
After a flat game against Duke in a 24-14 home win, Louisville responded with a 54-13 beat down of NC State as 19-point favorites. And after a flat showing in a 32-25 win at Virginia last week, I fully expect the Cardinals to bounce back with a blowout win over Boston College this week, easily covering the 25-point spread.
Boston College has a good defense, but it has clearly struggled with spread attacks against dual-threat quarterbacks. The Eagles lost 10-56 at home to Clemson and gave up 503 total yards, they lost 20-28 at home to Syracuse and gave up 532 total yards, and they lost 0-49 at Virginia Tech and allowed 476 total yards.
So, the Eagles have given up an average of 44.3 points per game and 503.7 yards per game against teams with dual-threat quarterbacks who run the spread. Now they'll be up against arguably the best offense in college football in Louisville, and the best running QB we've seen in a long time.
The Cardinals are putting up a ridiculous 50.0 points and 603 total yards per game while averaging 7.8 yards per play. Lamar Jackson is the clear front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. He has thrown 22 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 998 yards and 16 scores.
It's worth mentioning that the Cardinals do need style points now after ranking 7th in the initial college football playoff rankings. The only way they are going to pass up Ohio State and Texas A&M is to look impressive the rest of the way. After a poor effort against Virginia, they're going to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters against overmatched Boston College in this one.
The Eagles simply do not have the firepower to keep up. Their offense is only averaging 21.0 points per game, 329 total yards per game and 4.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 27.1 points per game, 399 yards per game and 5.7 per play. This is one of the worst offenses in the country.
The Eagles are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Boston College if 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight conference games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Steve Addazio is 6-15 ATS following an ATS win as the coach of Boston College.
Brandon Shively
Nebraska vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State -17
I like Ohio State in this game. The first thing that jumped out to me about the spread in this game is that Ohio State opened up -13.5 and quickly jumped to -17 where it has stayed steady throughout the week. This looks like a lot of points to the naked eye and 80% of the bets are on Nebraska according to data. It is very unusual to have that large of a percentage of bets on a double digit underdog. While the majority of the bets are on Nebraska, the line has held steady at -17 as of Friday morning. I am going to play the contrarian here and lay the points.
Nebraska’s perfect season is over with after a tough loss in overtime at Wisconsin. Now they have to try to regroup and go on the road again to face an Ohio State team that will try to mash the gas here. The Buckeyes have not covered in 4 consecutive games now which is very rare for any Urban Meyer team. This is a ‘night’ game and I expect the crowd to carry the momentum over to the players.
If there is a team overdue for a blowout win, it is Ohio State and they are catching Nebraska at a low point as the ‘Bubble Burst’ angle can be applied here.
I definitely think Ohio State is worth a closer look here. The majority of bettors have not taken the time to take a closer look. All they see is ‘Nebraska is getting 17 points’ and say that is too many. In a normal situation, maybe yes, but Ohio State will be the more motivated team here playing at home under the lights and I think we see a final score in the 38-13 range.
Bill Biles
Kansas vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -34
West Virginia is coming off their first loss of the season as they fell to OK State by 17. They had 3 turnovers in that one that lead to 17 points. In comes Kansas who is on a 39 game road losing streak and has a average loss of 41.8 points. Look for West Virginia to win this one big.
Jimmy Boyd
Louisville vs. Boston College
Play: Louisville -24½
I know this is a big number to lay on the road in conference play, but I actually think there's a ton of value here with Louisville laying less than 4 touchdowns against Boston College. I believe the fact that Cardinals are on the outside looking in on the playoffs and have had some less than impressive wins of late, has them flying under the radar.
The thing is, if Ohio State loses to Michigan, Washington gets upset at some point going forward and the Big 12 doesn't get in, there's a really good chance either the ACC or SEC gets 2 teams into the playoffs. The key for Louisville going forward is they have to dominate the rest of the way and just hope that it's enough. They certainly can't afford to have another one come down to the wire this week against the Eagles.
If Louisville shows up to play, which I believe they will, this one could get ugly in a hurry. Keep in mind they followed up their poor showing against Duke with a 54-13 blowout win over NC State a few weeks back. Boston College has already shown they have a hard time keeping games competitive against teams who play defense and feature a dynamic offense. They lost 49-0 at Virginia Tech and 56-10 at home to Clemson. The biggest key here is that the Eagles are so limited offensively that they just can't play from behind and the defense can only hold up for so long.
Louisville head coach Petrino has seen his teams go 13-4 ATS when listed as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points, winning on average in this spot by 31.5 ppg. At the same time, Boston College head coach Addazio is a mere 2-10 ATS at home against strong passing teams who are completing 58% or more of their pass attempts. The Eagles are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after covering in their last game.
Bob Harvey
Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
Play: Under 41
Wisconsin (6-2, 6-2 ATS) was taken to overtime for the second time in three weeks, this time by then 6th ranked Nebraska. The Cornhuskers rallied from a 10-point deficit to force OT but came up short losing to Wisky’ 23-17. The Badgers, who lost 30-23 in overtime to Ohio State on Oct. 15, improved to 3-2 on the season against ranked foes and moved within a game of the Cornhuskers for the lead in the Big Ten West.
Meanwhile Northwestern (4-4, 5-3 ATS) will be out to extend a home winning streak against Wisconsin that now stands at 17 years. In their last outing the Wildcats played Ohio State tough before falling 24-20.
Both teams make their living on defense. The Badgers are allowing just 14.6 points per game overall and a stingy 9.7 per outing on the road. Northwestern is surrendering 22 ppg. overall but just 16.4 points per game at home.
In last year’s meeting, NW recorded five sacks, forced five turnovers, and held Wisconsin to a school-record minus-26 yards rushing. The Wildcats also used a goal-line stand in the final seconds to edge the Badgers 13-7 in Madison.
The two teams are a combined 8-0 to the UNDER in the home/road split and are a combined 12-4 to the UNDER overall.