Matt Fargo
Fresno St vs. Colorado St
Play: Colorado St -15.5
Fresno St. is officially out of bowl contention and the further we get into the season, the more teams like these simply want to season to end. The Bulldogs have been competitive in some cases but they have yet to defeat a team from the FBS as their lone win came against Sacramento St. They are coming off their fourth straight cover which actually helps us out here as the line is favorable for Colorado St. The Rams won at UNLV two weeks ago and are coming off their bye week which should have them plenty rested for this one. Colorado St. is 4-4 overall so a bowl game is still a big possibility but this is a must win game as its final three games are against teams that enter the weekend with at least five wins so they will be taking on quality teams to end the season. All four of the Rams losses have come against teams with at least six victories so this is one they cannot let get away. The lone home defeat came against Wyoming despite outgaining the Cowboys by 47 total yards as they were hurt by turnovers. While the Bulldogs have been solid in covering of late, they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games while the Rams are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Jim Feist
Nebraska AT Ohio St
Pick: Under
These teams are ranked in the Top 20 in points allowed on defense. Nebraska is coming off an overtime loss at Wisconsin and hopes to channel that frustration toward Saturday's contest. "Our team actually will be mad," Nebraska coach Mike Riley said to reporters. Nebraska has the 18th-ranked defense in the country, allowing 18.4 points. Nebraska is on a 6-0 run under the total, plus 7-0 under in Big 10 action. Ohio State's defense has given up only three rushing TDs this season and ranks sixth in the nation in yards allowed per game (295.5), points allowed per game (15.1). Ohio State is 9-2 under in Big 10 play, plus the Under is 14-4 in Buckeyes last 18 games following a straight up win.
Sleepyj
Texas-San Antonio +20.5
A pretty big number to lay for a team that hasn't covered this number all season...Well if you count week 1 Memphis beat up on Alabama A&M....Besides that the Blue Raiders have been in a bunch of dog fights and a few convincing wins....Issue for both teams is defense..It's tough to lay almost 3 TD's with a defense as bad as Midd Tenn and expect a cover..We all now this is a conference game and UTSA is playing perhaps the best football of the season right now...They have won 3 of the last 4 and UTSA IMO had the much tougher schedule.....My numbers say -12.5, so grabbing almost 3 TD's is a solid play here today.
Sleepyj
Fla. Atlantic / Rice Over 57
Who said Bowl Season starts in December?....We have the Toilet Bowl on tap right here in early November...Both of these teams are extremely bad and the defense for both teams highlights how bad....When we look at both teams we notice a scary stat line.....It's hard to get two teams on the field that combined give up more than 1,000 yards in a single game...Well we have that today...Both teams combined on defense just based on avg surrender a whopping 1044 yards a game....They both rank almost dead last in passing and rushing...Maybe I'm being a little extreme, but Rice is 2nd to last in passing defense...Fla Atl is like 112th in rush defense...Flip it over and Rice is 102nd in rush defense and Fla Atlantic pass defense ranks 108th....So it's no mystery these teams stinks on defense...They allow a total of 77.8ppg......The problem is the offense....They stink on offense, but with both defenses being this bad, I expect a shootout...Both teams have 1 lousy win on the season and neither has nothing to lose at this point....Both teams like to pass the ball more and with the pass defense being so bad, I won't be shocked if they go heavy pass all game here...Line is rather close, so OT might not even be out of the question...I made my number 61 for this one..So i'll play the over for a unit.
Steve Merril
Nevada +15
This line opened at +12.5 and was quickly bet a couple points higher. It is understandable as Nevada has been a money burner this season, going just 1-7 ATS. However, this is actually a good scheduling situation for Nevada as they are coming off a bye week which gave them extra time to rest and prepare for this game. This is especially important when facing an option offense like New Mexico. Despite the poor pointspread record, Nevada has been a competitive team this season with only one loss coming by more than 10 points in their past six games.
New Mexico returns home off a road underdog win at Hawaii last week and the Lobos also have two more road games on deck the next two weeks. New Mexico might overlook this single home game, especially as a double-digit favorite. The Lobos only have one win by more than 7 points in their past seven games. They also have a weak defense that h
Joseph D'Amico
Arizona vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State -16
Injuries on both sides of the ball have decimated Arizona, with their only wins in 2016 coming over the lowly, Grambling and Hawaii teams. The 'Cats are crushing followers, going just 1-7 ATS. Possessing the 106th ranked "D" (yielding 33.1 PPG) will prove to be fatal here, as the Cougars are posting over 39.8 PPG behind the #3 passing unit in the nation. QB, Luke Falk (2926 YP, 72.6% CR, 24/5 TD/INT ratio) and his talented receiving corps will move the chains and score at will here. WSU will improve upon their 5-0 SU Conference record and get the cover as well, extending their current, 10-4 ATS run in League play.
Ray Monohan
Nebraska / Ohio St Over 52
Primetime heads to Columbus as the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Ohio State Buckeyes meet on Saturday night. Here, the Over has value.
With both teams sitting in the Top 10, a win here is huge for their BCS Playoff resume. Not only that, both teams currently sit with 1 loss and outside the Top 4, meaning big wins and impressive wins are important.
The Buckeyes offense has struggled over the past few weeks, but this is a spot where Urban Meyer will open up the playbook. Same goes for this Nebraska offense. Both teams will take plenty of chances down field and look to strike quickly.
Some trends to note. Over is 4-0 in Cornhuskers last 4 games following a straight up loss. Expect both teams to have plenty of success moving the ball and not be satisfied with small yardage plays, as they look to rack up the points and impress the nation.
Dave Price
Kentucky +2
Don't look now, but the Kentucky Wildcats are 5-3 on the season and in position to win the SEC East. They are 4-2 within the conference with wins over South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Missouri. Their only two losses came on the road to Alabama and Florida. They have won 5 of their last 6 games overall while going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. Now they catch a Georgia team that is playing terrible and will be disinterested. The Bulldogs have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are coming off a 10-24 loss to Florida, their biggest rivals. They could suffer a hangover from that defeat. The Kentucky rushing attack is hitting on all cylinders, putting up 258 yards against Vanderbilt, 262 against Mississippi State and 377 against Missouri in its last 3 games. The Bulldogs are ripe for the picking right now, and the Wildcats are primed to put an end to a 6-game losing streak to Georgia in this series.
Kyle Hunter
Memphis vs. SMU
Play: SMU +3
When they met at the end of last year, Memphis beat SMU 63-0. That game meant absolutely nothing to SMU, and it mattered a lot to Memphis. The Mustangs were a laughing stock the last couple years, but they have turned the program around in a big way this year. Chad Morris is a really good coach who is engineering quite the turnaround.
SMU won 38-16 as a 23.5 point home underdog two weeks ago against Houston. They followed that up with a nice road win at Tulane in a difficult spot. SMU's players have been talking all week about the humiliating loss last year to Memphis. Here, they have a homecoming game against that Memphis team, and it is a great spot for the Mustangs.
Memphis is without Paxton Lynch from last year's team. The Tigers aren't a bad team, but their defense is much weaker this season than in past seasons. Tulsa rolled up 59 points on Memphis at Memphis last weekend.
The sharp players have taken SMU and the points all week here, and I like their chances here too. I think SMU wins outright, but I'll grab the 3 points.
Bog Al
Texas vs. Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech
Last Saturday, the Longhorns upset previously undefeated Baylor, 35-34, on a game-winning field goal with less than a minute remaining. The Bears had started the year 6-0, and were ranked #8 in the country. But off that big upset win, we’ll fade the Longhorns on the road this week. One of the things I love to do in college football is bet against certain teams on the road following wins over undefeated teams, and Texas falls into a negative 47-73 ATS system of mine which is based on that premise. Moreover, this will be the Red Raiders final home game of the season, and they fall into an 89-58 ATS “Last Home Game” system of mine which plays on certain teams at home against foes off upset wins. Finally, both of these teams come into this game with a 4-4 record. And that’s important, as the Red Raiders are an unbelievable 30-4 ATS at home since October 1993 if they entered the game without a winning record, including a perfect 14-0 ATS vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Take the Red Raiders + the points.
Larry Ness
Purdue vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
Minnesota is quietly still in the Big Ten West Division race, as the Golden Gophers are 6-2 overall, including 3-2 in league play. That places them just one game back of No. 10 Nebraska, while being tied with No. 8 Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern. Minnesota has games still remaining against all the aforementioned teams, save Iowa. However, up first, the Golden Gophers host a 3-5 Purdue team, which is just 1-4 in Big Ten play.
Minnesota enters the contest off three straight wins, including a 49-17 rout on the road last Saturday at Illinois. Purdue comes in off three straight losses, getting outscored 45-7 in the second half of their 62-24 loss at Penn State (Nittany Lions are now No. 12 in the CFP rankings). Purdue QB David Blough completed a career-high 34 passes on 50 attempts last week against Penn State and has at least one TD pass in every game this season. He's thrown for 2,346 yards but owns a modest 57.8 completion percentage, as well as a so-so 16-12 ratio. He gets almost no help from a running game averaging 111.0 YPG (120th) on 3.6 YPC. The defense allows 36.9 PPG (116th) on 444.9 YPG (104th).
Minnesota runs the ball well, averaging 207.2 YPG (37th) on YPC. The Gophers own an excellent duo in Rodney Smith (801 yards on 5.2 YPC with 10 TDs) and Shannon Brooks (472 yards on 5.1 YPC with five TDs). QB Leidner is a liability, throwing a for about half as many yards (1,274) as Purdue's Blough), completing only 57.5 percent with just five TDs (but also only five INTs in 186 attempts). However, unlike Purdue, Minnesota has a solid defense, allowing just 22.1 PPG (30th) on 342.8 YPG (21st).
I'll use a word of caution here, noting that the Golden Gophers have covered just once in the seven instances when they're favored by at least 10 points. but they enter this game on a three-game winnings streak (averaging 35.0 PPG), while the Boilermakers enter on a three-game losing streak while allowing 46.0 PPG (have been out-scored 62-7 in the second half the past two weeks). What's more, Minnesota has won the last three times it has faced Purdue (2015, 2014 and 2013), averaging 41.3 PPG. Lay the points.
David Banks
Nebraska @ Ohio State
Pick: Nebraska +17.5
In the week’s only matchup of Top 10 teams, No. 10 Nebraska travels to No. 6 Ohio State in a game that has huge Big Ten and College Football Playoff implications. The Buckeyes enter Saturday coming off a loss to Penn State and a close win over Northwestern. Head coach Urban Meyer’s team will need to step up and improve against a very good Cornhuskers team that lost its first game of the season last week. Nebraska lost in overtime to eighth-ranked Wisconsin.
Both teams are committed to running the football. The Buckeyes are eighth in the nation in rushing offense averaging 272.4 yards per game led by redshirt freshman Mike Webber who has 770 yards and six touchdowns. Curtis Samuel, a hybrid running back/wide receiver is second on the team with 558 yards, and quarterback J.T. Barrett has 531 yards on the ground. The Buckeyes have plenty of weapons that can beat opponents.
Nebraska, which leads the Big Ten’s West Division, is more balanced offensively. Quarterback Tommie Armstrong has thrown for 1,764 yards and 11 touchdowns. The running game averages 204 yards per game led by RB Terrell Newby’s 588 yards. Armstrong is the second-leading rusher with 419 and Devine Ozigbo has 353 yards on the ground.
Both teams are also in the Top 15 in scoring defense. Nebraska gives up 18.4 points a game (15th) and Ohio State comes in at 15.1, sixth-best in the nation. Something has to give and the Buckeyes need to play more impassioned than they have the last two weeks. Playing at home should be a big advantage.
Dr Bob
Louisville (-25) 39 BOSTON COLLEGE 13
The math model only favors Louisville by 24 points but Boston College applies to a negative 7-37-1 ATS subset of a 73-154-6 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win as a 14 1/2 point dog at NC State.
Virginia Tech (-11) 36 DUKE25
I don’t have anything on the side here but both teams should be able to hit on some big pass plays against press coverage, as Virginia Tech allows 13.3 yards per catch while Duke has been burnt deep even more often (16.7 ypc allowed). Duke’s yards per catch allowed number should regress towards the mean a bit but the math model still favors the over (54 points).
CLEMSON (-26½) 49 Syracuse18
Clemson’s offense has been inconsistent at times this season, as the Deshaun Watson and the Tigers’ attack has actually played better against better defensive teams. Not relatively better. Better. Clemson’s two highest yards per play averages this season have been against good defensive teams Louisville (8.2 yppl) and Boston College (8.3 yppl) and their third best game was against a solid Florida State defense (6.4 yppl in that game). My math model favors Clemson to win 51-18 against a Syracuse team with a horrible defense but the Tigers tend to play conservatively when they are not forced to be great offensively and three of their four worst offensive games were against the three worst defensive teams they’ve faced – Troy (5.1 yppl), NC State (5.6 yppl) and Georgia Tech (5.4 yppl). I’ll respect the math model enough to lean with Clemson, who could score at will if they choose to throw the ball down the field. The Tigers’ defense has been consistently great all season, so a capable Syracuse offense should be held in check.
KANSAS STATE (-3) 30 Oklahoma State 27
My math model only favors Kansas State by 1 point but Oklahoma State applies to a 27-69-4 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win over West Virginia. I’d also prefer not to go against the Wildcats in Manhattan, where coach Bill Snyder is 95-51 ATS in his career.
BAYLOR (-7.5) 33 Texas Christian 30
Baylor was overrated heading into last week’s game with Texas because the Bears had built their unblemished record against an easy schedule of opponents. My math model actually favored the Longhorns last week and the math only favors the Bears by 5 points in this game. The biggest misconception is that Baylor has a great offense. They don’t. They have a pretty good offense. Baylor has averaged 40 points and 566 yards per game at 6.5 yards per play, which is very good. However, they’ve faced teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team, so Baylor is actually only 0.4 yppl better than an average FBS team, which is nothing special for a Big 5 Conference team. Baylor runs their their offense at a fast pace but that doesn’t make them a great offense – it makes them a fast offense.
TCU has allowed only 5.2 yppl to FBS teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average defense and the Horned Frogs just held two very efficient offensive teams (West Virginia and Texas Tech) to 5.5 yppl and 4.1 yppl the last two weeks. Baylor will score a good number of points because both teams play fast an there will be a lot of possessions for each team in this game, but Baylor won’t move the ball all that efficiently. However, TCU isn’t expected to be very efficient either against an underappreciated Baylor defense that is 0.3 yppl better than average despite having a horrible game last week against Texas.
The math only favors Baylor by 5 points and TCU applies to a very good 87-21-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. Baylor, meanwhile, applies to what I call the bubble has burst letdown situation, which plays against teams after their first loss if they started the season at 6-0 or better. Such teams are 147-203-4 (42%) ATS after their first loss of the season, including 0-4 ATS this season. Baylor does tend to play better at home (26-10 ATS since 2011) and they have revenge but I’d rather have TCU in this game.
NORTH CAROLINA (-10) 42 Georgia Tech 28
My math model favors North Carolina by 12 points and the Yellow Jackets apply to a negative 63-122-5 ATS road letdown situation that plays against teams coming off a close, high-scoring victory (they beat Duke 38-35 last week).
AUBURN (-25.5) 37 Vanderbilt 9
My math favors Auburn by 27 points and the Tigers apply to a 38-11 ATS situation that plays on home favorites of more than 21 points with revenge for a loss to their opponent the previous season. That angle makes sense to me.
Florida (-3.5) 24 ARKANSAS17
I expect a very good effort from Arkansas here (they Hogs apply to a 60-15 ATS home underdog blowout bounce-back situation) but Florida’s defense is too good for me to back the Razorbacks at this small number. Florida has allowed only 11.7 points per game and they’ve held all but one opponent to 14 points or fewer. Arkansas has a better than average offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) but the Gators are 1.5 yppl better than average defensively when you factor out the stats that their backup defenders gave up in garbage time of blowout wins.
Florida’s offense is below average running and throwing the ball but Arkansas has allowed 7.7 yards per rushing play this season, which is unfathomable for an SEC team that was good against the run last season. Florida should run the ball good enough to score enough points to get the win so I’ll favor the Gators to cover despite the situation favoring Arkansas.
Texas A&M (-11.5) 36 MISSISSIPPI STATE28
Texas A&M’s weakness is run defense (220 yards and 5.3 yards per rushing play allowed) and Mississippi State’s team strength is running the ball (217 yards at 5.8 yprp). My math model likes that matchup for the Bulldogs. The line has come down but there is still some value with the home dog against a Texas A&M team that might start playing some games not to lose given their current playoff ranking (#4).
WASHINGTON STATE (-16.5) 39.5 Arizona 23
I’ve never predicted a score with half a point in the score but I couldn’t decide which way I’d lean on this game at the current line of -16.5 points. My math model favors Washington State by 16.5 points and both teams apply to really good situations (Arizona to a 92-27 ATS bounce-back situation and WSU to an 88-29-1 ATS big home favorite situation). Uh….PASS.
Alabama (-7.5/-7) 26 LSU 23
This is the game that Alabama is most likely to lose. LSU has won and covered the spread in 3 straight games since firing head coach Les Miles after a 2-2 start to the season. Those two losses, by 2 points to Wisconsin and by 5 points at Auburn, don’t look so bad anymore given how good those two teams have proven to be and a dominating win over a good Ole’ Miss team (very good despite their mediocre record) is an indication that this Tigers team is a threat to the Tide on their home turf.
The fact that LSU has a good defense (1.0 points per game allowed) is not news but the Tigers actually have a higher offensive rating than Alabama does. LSU’s offense has been unleashed without Miles and his ridiculously conservative and predictable style of play and their recent surge under the leadership of Ed Orgeron has upped LSU to a season average of 7.1 yards per play, which is incredibly good given the slate of teams the Tigers have faced would allow just 5.5 yppl to an average attack. Alabama’s offense is 1.3 yppl better than average (6.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), so LSU actually has the better offense.
The defensive edge, of course, belongs to Bama, who’s dominating defenders have allowed just 4.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average team. LSU’s defense is 1.3 yppl better than average (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense). No team has had success runnign against the Tigers and that puts a lot of pressure on the arm of Alabama’s freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, whose numbers are skewed upward by a couple of big games. Hurts has struggled the last two games against the good pass defenses of Tennessee and Texas A&M (just 5.1 yards per pass play with 3 interceptions). LSU’s pass attack is more likely to struggle but there is a scenario where Alabama has trouble scoring if Hurts has another bad game.
My math model favors Alabama by just 6 points, so the line is about right, but LSU being off a bye week with revenge is more advantageous than Alabama being off a bye. Conference home dogs of more than 6 points with a winning record, with revenge, and off a bye week are 50-23 ATS against an elite opponent (i.e. win percentage of .750 or higher). That angle is 2-0 this season with the most recent being Penn State’s upset of Ohio State (as a 19 1/2 point dog). The record is 15-8 ATS if the opponent is also off a bye week. Unbeaten teams (5-0 or better) tend to not play so well as road favorites after their bye week. In fact, unbeaten road favorites at 5-0 or better are just 14-35-1 ATS after a bye week if they do not have revenge for a previous season loss to their opponent. The latest of these was Clemson’s narrow 3 point win as a 4 1/2 point underdog at Florida State last week.
There is a bit of line value favoring LSU and the situation is certainly in their favor, as the Tigers also apply to a 94-31-2 ATS home momentum situation in addition to the off a bye angles. I certainly can envision Alabama winning this game comfortably, but I can also see LSU winning this battle straight up.
Wisconsin (-6) 26 NORTHWESTERN15
Northwestern is playing better lately but my math model favors Wisconsin by 9 points and Northwestern applies to a 71-157-6 ATS letdown situation that plays against teams that nearly pull off an upset win but fall a bit short (i.e. losing by 7 or less as a double-digit dog). Such near misses can have a hangover affect and Wisconsin’s strong defense should control a pedestrian attack that has averaged only 5.2 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team.
OHIO STATE (-17.5) 35 Nebraska16
Ohio State played their worst game of the season last week in barely beating Northwestern, which was worse than losing on the road to a good Penn State team. I expect the Buckeyes to bounce-back with a good effort against a Nebraska team that got a does of reality with last week’s loss to Wisconsin. Nebraska is only 0.2 yppl better than average offensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) and their high ranking is a testament to how stupid the national rankings are. The only difference between this year’s Nebraska team and last year’s 7-6 team is that this year’s team has won close games and last year’s team lost all their close games. Last year’s Cornhuskers are actually better than this year’s team. Vegas is aware of the truth and the fact that Nebraska is still ranked #10 is a joke. They won’t be ranked by the end of the season though.
BUSTER SPORTS
NAVY AT NOTRE DAME
Play: NAVY +7
The Midshipmen come to Jacksonville, Florida to play their bitter rival the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in another neutral site game for both these clubs. The Irish finally got back in the winning column last week with a win over Miami while Navy was falling out of the top 25 with a loss to South Florida on Friday night. Navy brings the number 5 rushing offense to Jacksonville with 296 yards a game and they will go up against the number 60th ranked rushing defense averaging 160 yards per game. We see the Midshipmen controlling the tempo of the game with that great rushing offense and thus keeping the ball away from Notre Dame. Senior QB Will Worth has been playing outstanding for the Midshipmen, and Navy looks more willing to throw the ball unlike in past years if need be. Notre Dame and QB DeShone Kizer will try and produce some of the passing games that they had earlier in the year when they put up 344, 381 and 471 passing yards against Michigan St., Duke and Syracuse respectively. Navy had the 22nd ranked D before they were annihilated for 629 yards against South Florida last week and we know that Notre Dame just doesn't have that same firepower as South Florida, as the Irish are ranked 69th in total offense in yards gained. Navy dug themselves into a hole last week and we believe their defense will play much better today. We are getting 7 points at the time of this writing, which makes us go with the underdog who might just get the win OR.
Marco D'Angelo
Air Force +1.5
It's been a disappointing year for Air Force but they did beat Navy earlier this year and and win here for give them the Commander -in-Chief Trophy. rmy comes off an upset of Wake Forest last week. Army's strength this year has been a very good pass defense. The problem this week is that strength serves them no good as Air Force doesn't throw the ball. Both teams run the option so they both know how to defend it. Air Force has played the tougher schedule and has beat Army 9 of the last 10 times they have met. Air Force wins by 7 or more.